Month: February 2021

Turkish Press: Turkish-Russian Joint Observation Center in Nagorno-Karabakh [photos]

Hovsep Chakrian
Anadolu Agency, Turkey
Feb 5 2021


AGDAM, AZERBAIJAN – FEBRUARY 05: Turkish-Russian Joint Observation Center, established within the scope of observing the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia, continues its operations in Merzili village of Agdam, which was captured by Azerbaijan from Armenia, on . 60 Turkish and 60 Russian personnel serve at the observation center. 65 prefabricated facilities are built here on a field covering an area of 40,000 meters square. ( Resul Rehimov – Anadolu Agency )

Fotoğraf: Resul Rehimov

AGDAM, AZERBAIJAN – FEBRUARY 05: Turkish-Russian Joint Observation Center, established within the scope of observing the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia, continues its operations in Merzili village of Agdam, which was captured by Azerbaijan from Armenia, on . 60 Turkish and 60 Russian personnel serve at the observation center. 65 prefabricated facilities are built here on a field covering an area of 40,000 meters square. ( Resul Rehimov – Anadolu Agency )

Fotoğraf: Resul Rehimov

AGDAM, AZERBAIJAN – FEBRUARY 05: Turkish-Russian Joint Observation Center, established within the scope of observing the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia, continues its operations in Merzili village of Agdam, which was captured by Azerbaijan from Armenia, on . 60 Turkish and 60 Russian personnel serve at the observation center. 65 prefabricated facilities are built here on a field covering an area of 40,000 meters square. ( Resul Rehimov – Anadolu Agency )

Fotoğraf: Resul Rehimov

AGDAM, AZERBAIJAN – FEBRUARY 05: Turkish-Russian Joint Observation Center, established within the scope of observing the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia, continues its operations in Merzili village of Agdam, which was captured by Azerbaijan from Armenia, on . 60 Turkish and 60 Russian personnel serve at the observation center. 65 prefabricated facilities are built here on a field covering an area of 40,000 meters square. ( Resul Rehimov – Anadolu Agency )

Fotoğraf: Resul Rehimov

AGDAM, AZERBAIJAN – FEBRUARY 05: Turkish-Russian Joint Observation Center, established within the scope of observing the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia, continues its operations in Merzili village of Agdam, which was captured by Azerbaijan from Armenia, on . 60 Turkish and 60 Russian personnel serve at the observation center. 65 prefabricated facilities are built here on a field covering an area of 40,000 meters square. ( Resul Rehimov – Anadolu Agency )

Fotoğraf: Resul Rehimov

AGDAM, AZERBAIJAN – FEBRUARY 05: Turkish-Russian Joint Observation Center, established within the scope of observing the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia, continues its operations in Merzili village of Agdam, which was captured by Azerbaijan from Armenia, on . 60 Turkish and 60 Russian personnel serve at the observation center. 65 prefabricated facilities are built here on a field covering an area of 40,000 meters square. ( Resul Rehimov – Anadolu Agency )

Fotoğraf: Resul Rehimov

AGDAM, AZERBAIJAN – FEBRUARY 05: Turkish-Russian Joint Observation Center, established within the scope of observing the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia, continues its operations in Merzili village of Agdam, which was captured by Azerbaijan from Armenia, on . 60 Turkish and 60 Russian personnel serve at the observation center. 65 prefabricated facilities are built here on a field covering an area of 40,000 meters square. ( Resul Rehimov – Anadolu Agency )

Fotoğraf: Resul Rehimov

AGDAM, AZERBAIJAN – FEBRUARY 05: Turkish-Russian Joint Observation Center, established within the scope of observing the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia, continues its operations in Merzili village of Agdam, which was captured by Azerbaijan from Armenia, on . 60 Turkish and 60 Russian personnel serve at the observation center. 65 prefabricated facilities are built here on a field covering an area of 40,000 meters square. ( Resul Rehimov – Anadolu Agency )

Fotoğraf: Resul Rehimov

AGDAM, AZERBAIJAN – FEBRUARY 05: Turkish-Russian Joint Observation Center, established within the scope of observing the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia, continues its operations in Merzili village of Agdam, which was captured by Azerbaijan from Armenia, on . 60 Turkish and 60 Russian personnel serve at the observation center. 65 prefabricated facilities are built here on a field covering an area of 40,000 meters square. ( Resul Rehimov – Anadolu Agency )

Fotoğraf: Resul Rehimov

AGDAM, AZERBAIJAN – FEBRUARY 05: Turkish-Russian Joint Observation Center, established within the scope of observing the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh between Azerbaijan and Armenia, continues its operations in Merzili village of Agdam, which was captured by Azerbaijan from Armenia, on . 60 Turkish and 60 Russian personnel serve at the observation center. 65 prefabricated facilities are built here on a field covering an area of 40,000 meters square. ( Resul Rehimov – Anadolu Agency )



Armenia, Sweden mull perspectives of cooperation in high-tech

Edgar Tavakalian
Public Radio of Armenia
Feb 5 2021

High-Tech Industry Minister Hakob Arshakyan received the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Sweden Mr. Svensson Patrik and Izabella Eriksson, Deputy Head of Mission, Counsellor in charge of Development Cooperation.

Minister Arshakyan welcomed Ambassador Svensson and wished him success during the diplomatic mission. He mentioned that the Armenian side highly appreciates the humanitarian aid received from Kingdom of Sweden after the war.

The Minister emphasized the importance of the agreement on the development of cooperation between Sweden and Armenia, signed in 2019 by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia, Zohrab Mnatsakanyan and the Director-General of Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA), Carin Jämtin.

‘‘The signing of the agreement is a new chapter in Armenian-Swedish relations and within its framework we need to develop our relations in many spheres’’ said Arshakyan.

Speaking about the main fields of activities of the Ministry, Hakob Arshakyan mentioned that Armenia’s high-tech industry had impressive growth even in 2020, which was a hard year for the economy. This shows that Armenian high-tech industry not only has good growth potential, but also demonstrates tangible results. This is evidenced by the presence of branches of world high-tech companies operating in Armenia, such as ‘‘Ericsson’’ and other companies.

The Minister suggested the Ambassador to draw the attention of Swedish companies to the idea of opening branches in Armenia, as well as the possibility of establishing a Tumo Center for Creative Technologies in Stockholm, and localization of other successful technological educational programs there. Ambassador Svensson, who was appointed in September, positively assessed the growth in the high-tech sector, noting that it also demonstrates the level of certain environment and favorable conditions.

The Ambassador stressed that the Swedish high-tech industry had undergone considerable development and they are happy to share their experience not only in terms of creating an enabling environment for company development, but also in terms of education, science and their connections to business.

Hakob Arshakyan told the Ambassador that the Armenian side is particularly interested in cooperation within educational and scientific programs in different formats: on the level of universities, scientific institutions and policy development.

In turn, the Ambassador replied that there are grants for Armenian students at Swedish universities of technology, and grants may be increased in the future.

The Ambassador also expressed interest in Armenia’s digital agenda. Armenia’s five-year digitalization strategy has already been developed and submitted to the government for approval, now it is in the final stages of discussion.

The directions and possibilities of cooperation and development in the sphere of incubators and start-ups was discussed.

Czech Parliamentary panel calls on Azerbaijan to release Armenian POWs

Lilit Nahapetian
Public Radio of Armenia
Feb 5 2021

At its sitting on February 4, 2021 the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Chamber of Deputies of the Czech Parliament adopted a resolution on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the Armenian Embassy in the Czech Republic informs.

The resolution welcomed the establishment of the ceasefire and expressed regret over Azerbaijan’s non-compliance with the ceasefire clause on returning prisoners, calling on the latter to return the remaining prisoners.

At the same time, the Committee calls for a political settlement to the conflict within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmanship.

Armenia’s psychologists scramble to heal post-war trauma

Manouk Vasilian
OC Media
Feb 2 2021
 2 February 2021

ByAni Avetisyan
Illustration: Mariam Nikuradze/OC Media.

The second Nagorno-Karabakh war has left tens of thousands in need of psychological help. OC Media spoke with two Armenian psychologists about their work in trying to heal the psychological wounds left by the conflict.  

When the war over Nagorno-Karabakh broke out, 21-year-old Hermine Mkoyan, a senior student at the faculty of Psychology at Yerevan State University, was immediately mobilised to work with displaced children. 

‘The first thing I asked myself was if I was ready to hide my emotions and help. We were prepared for a long-lasting job’, Hermine told OC Media. ‘We couldn’t even imagine when and how it would end.’

Unlike Hermine, Davit Gevorgyan has worked in the field for a long, long time. He has been the Director of the Yerevan State University Center of Applied Psychology for over a decade, but even for someone with experience, the scale of this war has been something completely novel. 

‘There were not so many wounded service members during the [April 2016] Four-Day War, we knew almost everyone personally’, he told OC Media. 

This time, in coordination with the Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of Emergency Situations, roughly 200 other psychologists and psychotherapists were faced with the prospect of treating tens of thousands of refugees, soldiers, and children. 

They were recruited from the private and public sector, and students worked alongside experts that had decades of experience under their belt. They worked across the country — wherever the refugees had settled. 

The children Hermine works with have all been displaced and are now housed in hotels around Armenia. ‘I thought it was the worst time for getting work experience. But I promised myself to be as restrained as possible, to be ready for even more extreme situations and to consider that children could need assistance that we didn’t expect’. 

To ensure that she did not unintentionally increase the harm suffered by her young patients, Hermine did not ask them to speak of the war, though, she said, they almost inevitably bring it up themselves. 

‘They came to us to talk about the loss of relatives even before we were informed about it’, Hermine said

The children’s fear also stayed with them. Their sleep was wracked by nightmares, and any imagery of war, ever-present in Armenia today, would trigger a traumatic response. Children would wake up in the middle of the night, Hermine recalls, with the fear that their new home might be shelled. ‘They became more sensitive to those kinds of noises that can be associated with the sound of bombing.’

Hermine said that art-therapy was a technique that the children responded well to.  ‘We used to draw or write down their fears and burn them to see them come to an end.’

Another factor that had an adverse effect on displaced children was the sudden change in environment.  Being away from the familiar for an indeterminate amount of time would lead to a feeling of being trapped, and would only heighten the already acute levels of anxiety suffered by the children, she said. 

Despite being away from home, the children still lived ‘with a mental image of their homes, settlements, and schools’ — constantly fearing what would happen back home. ‘We needed to assure them that, at some point, they might be forced to change schools or towns, but they would never lose their right to education,’  Hermine said.

Older children, particularly teenagers, she said, had their own unique challenges. Some criticised themselves for not doing more to help others, and some just said they simply felt ‘useless’. 

Indeed, the older the patient, the worse their mental situation often was. 

Davit Gevorgyan explained that children are less likely to develop post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and were more adaptive.

 ‘It’s not about particular cases when they lost close relatives, have seen the real face of war, and so on. But the more sensitive children are, the more flexible they are․’

The real difficulty was in working with adults, especially those who had seen active combat.

‘The shock was especially acute for those who fought in the first war and had something to compare with’, Davit said.  He observed that rather than veterans, it was the young soldiers doing their mandatory military service who were more prepared for the horrors of war than reservists or volunteers, both at a physical and mental level. 

‘They knew their duty better and, as strange as it may seem,  were more immune’, he said, adding the caveat that ‘more research’ was still necessary to better understand such dynamics.

According to Armenian sources, up to 10,000 soldiers were wounded during the war and a majority of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh were either temporarily or permanently displaced. Working with tens of thousands of patients was a colossal task, a task  Gevorgyan said was still far from complete. 

Because of the sheer number of patients, Davit and his colleagues had to resort to triage, focusing on preventative psychological treatments that could limit harm and be undertaken relatively quickly after a patient’s exposure to traumatic events.  ‘An unnatural reaction to an unnatural situation is normal’, he explained. ‘We needed to bring them back to reality in a few hours or days after the trauma.’

The process was made more difficult not only by the massive number of patients but also the fact that many were not initially willing to receive help. Davit recalled that, with some soldiers, when they presented themselves as medical professionals they were met not only with refusal but even rudeness. They had no choice but to take another, less direct approach. 

‘People like to talk about problems when you do not tell them those are symptoms they have’, Davit said, adding that they would speak with the soldiers informally as ‘friends’, and only after such discussions would the soldiers be willing to engage in a more clinical discussion.  

When the tripartite peace declaration was signed on 10 November, incredulity, grief, and rage swept through much of Armenian society. But Davit said his patients had a completely different response.

‘The good thing is that no one will die anymore’ — Davit recalled hearing this phrase over and over from most of his patients.

‘The feeling of emptiness and cognisance of what happened comes later’, he said. ‘Now soldiers are beginning to evaluate what is lost and what remains’. 

 For ease of reading, we choose not to use qualifiers such as ‘de facto’, ‘unrecognised’, or ‘partially recognised’ when discussing institutions or political positions within Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and South Ossetia. This does not imply a position on their status

The ruins of the war in the Caucasus renew the rivalry between Russia and Turkey

Emil Lazarian
KSU | The Sentinel Newspaper
Feb 6 2021

The 44 days of the second war around Nagorno-Karabakh, won by Azerbaijan last November, has updated the status quo in the South Caucasus, one of the most divisive depots of power in history.

As in much of the past four centuries, Russia and Turkey are once again face to face.

Iran is still a significant regional player, but the amount of trouble in Tehran appears to have dampened the appetite of the Ayatollahs to get involved in the dispute with the Azeris, who have very strong ethnic ties to ancient Persia.

Since the formation of the Soviet Union in 1922, Moscow had the strongest hand in the region, whose countries were absorbed into the Communist Empire.

Nagorno-Karabakh influenced this process. Historically an Armenian region, it found itself on the territory of Azerbaijan so as not to offend the Turks and to assert a certain border stability. Azeris are a Turkic speaking people and Muslims especially love them.

The situation was pushed with the stomach until the beginning of the Soviet decline, in 1988, when nationalist conflicts broke out. After the union officially ended in 1991, they evolved into the first modern war in the region, won by Armenia in 1994.

With him, in addition to Nagorno-Karabakh, seven Azeri districts around him were occupied. Hundreds of thousands of locals left, fueling a cycle of mutual hatred that returned to side-to-side displacement at a time when the outside powers were the Russian Empire and the Ottoman Empire.

With occasional skirmishes, the situation stabilized until last year the ambitious government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan decided to act. He helped arm Baku with modern attack drones and even sent Turkish F-16 fighters to support the ally.

The weakening of all countries due to the pandemic also served as a catalyst. For Baku, an opportunity to recover what he considers his own; for Ankara, a distraction for its domestic audience and a means of establishing its projection in the Caucasus.

Who didn’t like anything was Russian President Vladimir Putin, who had bad relations with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, despite the geopolitical importance of his neighbor.

In Armenia, the Russians maintain a large military base in the west of the country and, by treaty, are forced to defend Yerevan against external aggression. But the agreement did not apply to Nagorno-Karabakh, whose jurisdiction was the subject of international questioning.

So Putin did nothing to prevent the war from starting. Baku was nimble and its autocrat, Ilham Alyiev, was determined to use Turkish support. It took over several areas occupied by the Armenians and even around 30% of Nagorno-Karabakh.

It was a bloody process. In all, about 5,500 soldiers and 150 civilians died, more or less evenly distributed. The infrastructure of the Armenian region has been severely affected by the bombing of bridges, communication lines, schools and hospitals.

Yerevan, supporting the so-called Artsakh Defense Force, the Armenian name for the region, attacked civilian targets also in Azeri territory. For Amnesty International, both countries have done this deliberately, and reports of brutality continue to emerge.

With no alternative, Pashinyan eventually accepted a very unpopular peace, as he lost all of 1994’s gains and provisionally maintained a smaller Nagorno-Karabakh.

For Putin, it was a political victory, as he negotiated the agreement and took charge of sending 2,000 troops to look after its implementation for five years, renewable for five more.

Its strategic objective of keeping a firm footing on its exposed southern flank, which serves as a link between Russian jihadist movements in the North Caucasus and the unrest in Syria and Iraq, has been achieved.

But Nagorno-Karabakh’s final status has yet to be defined, and the tone of accusation from side to side seems to prevent a happy ending to the story. Baku led by example by harshly criticizing France, one of the region’s first negotiators, whose parliament suggested recognizing the Armenian enclave as independent.

For his part, Erdogan, who reviewed the victorious troops with Aliiev, wanted more. Since the beginning of the month, it has been promoting a major joint military exercise with Baku on its eastern border, almost directly targeting Russian forces in Armenia.

Not content with seeing the ally victorious and having risked a confrontation with the Russians, the Turkish president demanded to participate in the peacekeeping forces monitoring the Azeri-Armenian agreement.

Moscow did not allow the dispatch of patrols, but agreed to set up a control center in the Agdam region, created on January 30 with 120 soldiers, half Russian, half Turkish.

The dynamic seems to repeat the tense relationship between the two powers in the civil wars in Syria and Libya, where they have supported different camps and made fragile deals.

Economics underlines this whole issue of power projection. Azerbaijan is a great natural gas well, and in recent years it has deviated from its historic link with Russia and laid pipelines directly to Turkey, where it now supplies over 80% of the product.

The final objective is Europe, through other gas pipelines, avoiding the obligatory passage through Russia.

His failure to make a more emphatic defense of the Armenian position during the war indicated Putin’s attempt to keep Baku close, which with Erdogan’s incisive action was not successful.

Armenia, on the other hand, saw its government all but collapse and, with no natural resources to enter the larger geopolitical game, had to accept its fate and tolerate the Turkish presence nearby.

The neighbors do not recognize each other because Ankara does not accept the idea that the Ottomans committed a genocide against the Armenians in 1915.

Lost in the middle of this big dog fight, the victims of the time, the displaced Armenians.

Like their Azeri peers in the past, and Armenians before, in an endless discussion about who deserves to inherit the land, it is now they who fill the roads with their possessions and are homeless.

Defining what will be done with Nargono-Karabakh may shed light on these people, although it is highly unlikely that a solution will end the side-by-side recriminations.

European Court on Human Rights and Nagorno-Karabakh: How will it rule?

Paul Hambardsumian
Israel Hayom, Israel
Feb 5 2021
By  Rachel Avraham                    
– www.israelhayom.com

In recent weeks, it was reported in various Azerbaijani media outlets that Azerbaijan submitted an official complaint against Armenia to the European Court on Human Rights. They claim that there is evidence that 3,890 Azerbaijani civilians went missing during the Karabakh war and Armenia has not taken any measures to investigate the fate of these individuals. They also argue that Armenia indiscriminately shelled Azerbaijani towns and villages with cluster munitions, phosphorus bombs and long-range missiles, which killed 93 civilians and maimed 423 others.

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Furthermore, during the First Karabakh War, the Azerbaijani media reported that Armenia caused billions of dollars in damage to the Azerbaijani economy, as about 1 million people became refugees and internally displaced persons and all infrastructure in the occupied territories was destroyed. According to various Azerbaijani sources, the destruction was so vast in the city of Agdam that it is referred to as the "Caucasian Hiroshima." Later this month, Azerbaijan commemorates Khojaly Genocide Day, which for many Azerbaijanis symbolizes all of the suffering that they endured throughout the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.

The official complaint also accuses Armenia of denying Azerbaijani refugees the right to reclaim their homes, after 30 years of Armenia occupying the territory in violation of four UN Security Council resolutions. During this period, various Azerbaijani sources noted that trees were uprooted, cultural heritage sites and religious sites were desecrated, and homes were demolished. Azerbaijan claims that efforts to destroy the area intensified in the period leading up to Azerbaijan reclaiming parts of Karabakh. Since then, Armenia has also submitted their own petition. Yet the question remains, how will the European Court on Human Rights rule?

Council of Europe Secretary-General Marija Pejcinovic Buric stated recently that the European Convention on Human Rights and the European Social Charter comprise "the soul of modern Europe." She noted that compliance with the European Court on Human Rights is not a "kind request" but a "binding requirement," when discussing the court's demand for Turkey to release Osman Kavala, who was arrested for allegedly orchestrating the Gezi Park Protests.

However, this same court that is rough on Turkish authorities also last year ruled in favor of BDS activists in France, claiming that the French government did not have the right to charge BDS supporters with "incitement to commit economic discrimination." The European Court on Human Rights forced the French government to pay compensation to 11 BDS activists, claiming that the French government violated their "freedom of speech."

More recently, the European Court of Justice ruled that Belgium has the right to bar kosher and halal slaughtering, which is a clear violation of "freedom of religion," as many Muslims and Jews view slaughtering an animal after stunning it to be religiously forbidden. Prominent anti-Semitism scholar Manfred Gerstenfeld called this ruling "an affront to Muslims and Jews across Europe." However, so far, the European Court on Human Rights has had nothing to say about it.

Nitzana Darshan-Leitner, president of Shurat HaDin, said, "I think the European Court for Justice, which has the ideology of the European governments has a bias towards Israel. Therefore, the court reflects this tendency. It reflects hypocrisy, as there are other countries that violate human rights that they are doing nothing about. They jump to seize the opportunity to attack Israel."

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However, Darshan-Leitner does not believe that the fact Azerbaijan is a strategic ally of the State of Israel will necessarily make the European Court on Human Rights biased against them: "Every country does its own calculations when it comes to its relationship with Israel when it comes to its own legal system. The same for the ICC, the European Court of Justice and the European Court on Human Rights."

Nevertheless, an Azerbaijani government official noted that he is concerned about the matter. The European Center for Law and Justice found that 22 out of the 100 justices that served in the European Court on Human Rights between 2009 and 2019 had strong links with far-left wing NGOs, such as the George Soros' Open Society Foundation, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, etc. In 80 cases cited by the European Parliament, these judges ruled based upon the whims of their previous employers.

According to the European Parliament, "This is a very serious situation because it calls into question the independence of the rule of law and the impartiality of judges. Moreover, it contravenes the rules that the ECHR imposes on the states in this regard."

All the NGOs cited above have an anti-Israel bias. While Human Rights Watch has been impartial in its coverage of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, both the Open Society Foundation and Amnesty International have written reports generally slanting towards the Armenian side.

Mendi Safadi, who heads the Safadi Center for International Diplomacy, Research, Public Relations and Human Rights, noted that the European Union and other important members of the international community have ignored what happened in the Karabakh region over the years to the point that many people today do not know who was the source of this conflict.

"The time has come for justice to be restored in this conflict and for the international community to enforce a fair agreement, and to return sovereignty to the control of the region's owners. As long as the region lacks absolute sovereignty, the conflict will continue to cause tensions and human rights violations," he said."

 

Rachel Avraham is a political analyst working at the Safadi Center for International Diplomacy, Research, Public Relations and Human Rights. She is the author of "Women and Jihad: Debating Palestinian Female Suicide Bombings in the American, Israeli and Arab Media."

Turkey-Azerbaijan Joint Military Drills on Armenian Border

Toneyan Mark

Feb 6 2021


02/06/2021 Turkey (International Christian Concern) –  Turkey and Azerbaijan launched a joint military exercise on February 2 in Kars, a region of Turkey bordering Armenia. In light of the upcoming exercises, Armenia conducted evacuation exercises and issued warnings in villages near the Kars border two weeks prior.

The joint military exercises are expected to last until February 12. The last time that Turkey and Azerbaijan held joint exercises was on July 29, less than two months before the war in Nagorno-Karabakh. The 44-day war resulted in the killing of 72 civilians by Azerbaijani forces and 163 civilians injured, though the numbers could be higher according to the Human Rights Ombudsman of Artsakh report.

In August 2020, Azerbaijan President Aliyev said that these joint drills area manifestation of Azeri-Turkish unity and that the “intensity of these exercises will be increased from now on”.  As Azerbaijan and Turkey move towards increased work together, Turkey’s messaging against Christians continues to influence Azeri mindsets as well. Turkey’s President also recently posted a photo of church in Kars converted to a mosque along with a Friday prayer. The Armenian Apostles Church of Kars is one of many churches that Turkey has either converted or left to be abandoned in the past year.

 

Post-war Armenia: New remedies for old maladies

Arpi Talalian
Modern Diplomacy
Feb 6 2021
February 6, 2021

By Aleksandr Petrosyan

– Modern Diplomacy

՛՛The Republic of Armenia is the guarantor of the security of Artsakh՛՛,- is stated in the National Security Strategy of the Republic of Armenia updated last year. The current political realities which emerged after the recent war over Nagorno-Karabakh destroyed Armenia’s security system which has lasted for more than two and half decades,thuscreating absolute uncertainty.  The current situation not only causes existentialmeances for the Armenianness of Artsakh, but also create new threats for the actornessof the Republic of Armenia for the long run. The problematic demarcation issues with the Republic of Azerbaijan, the reopenning of the regional communication routes and also the assymetric dependence on Russia create real threats for Armenia’s sovereignty. The ongoing concerns around these problems pave necessary ground for the spread of frustration in the society which is reflected in the statementscalling for deepenening integration with Russia, even worse to become a part of Russia.

Unfortunately, it is now really difficult for the Armenian side to acknowledge that the status quo had been succesfullty kept due to the fragile geopolitical equilibrium. But the reality dramatically changed in 2014-2015 when the USA started withdrawing from Afghanistan and the Middle East andshifting its attention towards the East Asia.  Moreover, the downing of the Russian fighting jet by Turkey resulted in new state of affairsin the region. This new period was symbolized for the Armenian side by the April war back in April, 2016 and then reached its peak in the recent war of 2020.  Several important traits of this new era have been either misinterpreted or ignored by the Armenian side.  The most important one is the new nature of the Russo-Turkish relations which are product of the above-mentioned events starting since 2014, which are aimed at filling the power vacuum gap in the Middle East by the Russo-Turkish tandem.

The state of the art of the Russo-Turkish bilateral relations is excellently described by th MFA of Russia S. Lavrov as ‘sui generis cooperation and competition’. Ignoring this fact and presuming that the possible war could have the repetition of the April War by its scale, and the Russian side should have been interested in the maintance of the status quo albeit deviated, speaks about the Armenian side’s underestimation of the current realities around Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh and the wider region in general. The existing consensus between Turkey and Russia over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, is obviously shaped by their attempts of redistributing the spheres of influence in the entire region thus trying to keep all extraregional actors and first of all the West out. Unfortunately, it led to devastating consequences for the Armenian side.  The geopolitcal myopia of the Armenian side resulted in the unprecedented destruction, seen last time a century ago again by the performance of the same Russo-Turkish pair, which then led to the partition and sovietization of Armenia. The claims stemming from  the Armenian side, including the ruling elite,  that the war prepration rests only with the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance and for the Russian side it was undesirable and unexpectable, causes doubt based upon the bellow-suggested explanations.

First of all, it’s necessacry to recall that the post-elections demostrations which started in Belarus, a OSCT/EAEU member state and a close neighbor of Russia, should have been worrying, if of course there were directed against the Kremlin and were sponsored by the West. And in light of these events, the opening of  so-called ”second frontier” against Russia in the South Caucasus  should have induced Russia to keep the balance in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict at any cost, at least by supporting the weaker party – Armenia- by solving the problem of supplies in advance, avoiding possible blockades of Armenia.Another  nuance which deepens the concern that the war wasn’t surprise for Russia, was the post-election revolutionary situation in Kyrgyzstan, another Russian sphere of influence, which happened in the beginning of October, when the war in Nagorno-Karabakh was at its height. Though the Kremlin-backed Russian media channels and prominent analysts were doing everything to show that there was a Western conspiracy working against Russia at the same time in Belarus, Nagorno-Karabakh and Kyrgyzstan, however in reality this anti-western paranoia doesn’t find reasonable ground as in all three dimensions Russia’s stance has strengthened in the result.

Finally, the last fragment which attracts attention, is the timing of the war. The period of presidential elections campaign of the USA, when both the ruling administration and Biden’s team were fully busy with the election preparations, and France alone couldn’t counterbalance Russia and restrain Turkey at the same time. The preelection timing was an ideally calculated as the polls of the previous period showed that Trump didn’t have chances for reelection. This fact wasn’t the most desirbale option for Russia and Turkey given the isolationist nature of Trump’s foreign policy, on the one hand, and Biden’s tough stance against Russia and Turkey on the other hand. Overall, the aforementioned developments have shaped the current state of affairs in the South Caucasus having devastating effects for Armenia. It’s out of question that Russia, possessing huge amount of resources and tools at its disposal,could react to this conflict properly in order not to harm its ally’s – Armenia’s interests,  if, of course, it was stemming from its intersts and agenda in the region. 

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenian-Russian relations have evolved in a wrong way, making Armenia’s position more vulnerable and causing assymetric dependence on Russia. This has been conditioned because of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh and Turkish denial of the Armenian Genocide, which have kept borders of Armenia with these counties closed. The fact of being landlocked and having 2 out of 4 borders closed, staying out of the regional economic projects and also having tensions between Iran and the West, which makes the southern border unreliable, have created favorable conditions for Russia to establish total control over Armenia, shaping that vary mindset of the Kremlin towards Armenia:Where can  they escape? (Акудаониденутся?).Moreover, after the second Karabakh war, domestic excitements, alarms and worrying in Armenia, pave the ground for the expansion of the thoughts ranging from joining the Union State of Belarus and Russia up to joining Russian Federation as one of its entities like Tatarstan or Chechnya.  This delusive and apathetic discourse, which is being encouragedboth by the Russian media channels and some pro-Kremlin politicians and parties, needs to be neutralised only by increasingArmenia’s substantiveness as a fully functional subject of Internationa law. Certainly, the economic, military and political security state should have been totally different, if Armenia’s leadership lacking legality and legitimacy, didn’t aleinate the strategically important facilities to Russia back in the beginning of 2000s.The so-called program ‘property for debt’and later deals passedalmost all major and important facilities of the Armenian economy under control of Russia. Two strategically important facilities could and today also can change Armenia’s economic, political and security environment mostly reducing its isolation and increasing prospects of economic prosperity. These are Iran-Armenia railway and Iran-Armenia-Georgia gas pipeline.

Railway

Armenia’s assymetric dependence on Russia can be solved solely based on diversification and due to involvement of other actors as well, which will expand Yerevan’s area of maneuver.  But this diversification shouldn’t be fragile as the one back in 2000s labelled as ‘assymetic complementarity’, which again emphasized the iportant role of Russia. In that concept Russia wasn’t regarded as ‘primus inter pares – first among equals’, but it can be deescribed as ‘Russia and the rest’. Given the existing complicated relations with Turkey, in the role of primary actors involved in the Armenia’s foreign policy spectrum are Iran, China and the EU. The construction of Iran-Armenia railway has huge potential to solve a few real problems. Firstly, Armenia gains stable access to the Iranian market. Then, with th already existing railway web in Iran, Armenia gains access not only to the Central Asia but also to China. On the other hand, joining the Iranian railway, Armenia reaches the Persian Gulf and Indian ocean. In the result, Armenia becomes an important connecting ring in this whole chain between the Georgian and Iranian ports securing links between the Eastern Europe and East Asia. Iran and Armenia solve their isolation problem in some extent, while China gets an opportunity to join the Eastern Europe by sea avoinding dependence on Russia. As a result, this project and its geoeconomical influence allow Armenia to increase the role of Iran and China in the regional affairs thus creating leverage for her benefit. The fact that the existing Armenian-Georgian railway works, there is a need to build up Tabriz-Yerevan section. Doubtless, this project should be substantiated economically, which will will increase Armenia’s economic attractiveness. Last year, China and Iran signed a strategic partnership agreement, which envisages 400 bln USD Chinese investment in the development of Iran’s infrastructures over the next 25 years. The railway and roads systems compose important part of this infrastructure complex. The upgrade of Iranian facilities are aimed at solving Iran’s isolation and openinng new opportunities for China. Iran’s MFA J. Zarif announced during his last visit to Armenia, that the territorial integrity of the Republic of Armenia is a red light for Iran, thus highliting the vital importance of border with Armenia. It is’ot secret that if Armenia loses its southern border with Iran, then Azerbaijan and Turkey establish land contact, which isolates Iran from the North and puts an end to the existence of the Armenian statehood in general. Therefore, taking into account security importance of railway for Iran and Armenia, as well as economic attraction for Eastern Europe and China, the question of this project should receivea majorpriority for Armenia.

Gas pipeline

The next project of strategic importance, which will change the regional politics, economy and security, is the Iran-Armenia-Georgia gas pipeline. In 2005, when the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline was in the process of negotiation, Alexander Ryazanov, a vice-president of  Gazprom, declared that if Gazprom wasn’t involved in that project, it’s uncertain where this gas would flow. Certainly, this idea should have scared Armenia’s that time administration, which not only didn’t have domestic support due to corruption and authoritarian levels, but also it [the administration] had many fears that the Nagorno-Karabakh  status quo could have been changed in favor of Azerbaijan by Russian intervention. As a result, the operation of the Iraian-Armenian pipeline alongside with other facilities, including the railway of Armenia, were passed to Russia thus trying to accomodate Russia in all possible ways. In the following years, Russian Gazprom also obtained the right to operate the whole gas system of Armenia. Moreover, in December 2013, then president Serzh Sargsyan signed an agreement with his Russian counterpart, according to which, Armenia was obliged to buy gas from Gazprom until 2043. It’s worthless to mention about legality and nonsense nature of this agreement. It’s worth reminding, that a similar gas deal with Russia cost Ukraine’s former Prime-Minster Yulia Tymoshenko 7 years in prison.

Thus, the Armenian side did everything to deprive itself of having diversified gas sources. The Iranian gas pipeline has huge potential not only to liberalize Armenian domestic market, establishing fair competition, but also to provide Armenia with transit fees increasing economic attractivenessof Armenia. The Iranian gas pipeline has great potential to change the energy market of Georgia as well as reducing its dependence on Azerbaijan. Moreover, given the EU depdendence on Russian gas, it’s logical to have the Iranian gas pieplines reached to Europe crossing the Black Sea. Initial destination can be Romania. First of all, given its geographical proximity with Ukraine and Moldova, these countries may solve their gas dependence problem on Russia.On the other hand, the end destination of the pipeline can be France, which can regain its balance vis-a-vis Germany. In addition, this project may attract Turkmenistan’s attention as well, as it receives an alternative channel for the TransCaspian pipeline.

Overall, this ambitious project will solve Armenia’s and Georgia’s energy, economic, political security issues, reducing their  vulnerable  position in the region. It will change Russia’s stance in the region, thus changing also its foreign policy behavior, perception of Armenia and Georgia as well.  Armenia will solve the asymmetric devastatingdependence problem and also will have a chance to break Turkis-Azerbaijani isolation. With this project, Islamic Republic will recieve a chance to connect with Europe and to break thr isolation, which is ncessary for for the EU an Iran.  Finally, the European Union can get a free hand vis-a-vis Russia.

Three months after the war, Nagorno-Karabakh tries to rebuild its routine

Meline Chalian

Minasyan explains why French ambassador to Armenia keeps silent

Raffi Khondkarian
Vestnik Kavkaza
Feb 6 2021

6 Feb in 22:09

Russian peacekeepers banned a group of French journalists to enter Nagorno-Karabakh with accreditation issued by Yerevan, former Armenian Ambassador to the Vatican and Portugal Mikayel Minasyan wrote in Telegram.

"Yesterday I got a call from a friend close to the Elysee Palace. And he says:

– Listen, what happened to our delegation there? I get some scattered information, there is nothing in the media, and nothing is clear.

– Come on, – I tell him, – the usual story. This is the result of your silence,” Minasyan notes, explaining:

"Russian peacekeepers prohibit entry, saying that you are entering Azerbaijan, and the accreditation received in Armenia is invalid. If you want to enter the region, get an Azerbaijani accreditation," News.am quotes the former diplomat as saying.