Month: September 2020

Experts: Iran is Secretly Backing Armenia!

Toneyan Mark
AlBawaba, Middle East
Sept 29 2020
Published September 29th, 2020 – 06:27 GMT

Highlights
Some Azeris believe that Iran’s Turkic-origin population, which includes Turkmen, Qashgais and other Turkish-speaking groups, might amount to nearly 40 percent. 

Renewed clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia in occupied Nagorno-Karabakh are already a geopolitical flashpoint between Russia, which supports Yerevan, and Turkey, which supports Baku. 

But what role does Iran, a Shia-Muslim majority country like Azerbaijan, which neighbours both countries, have? Experts with a close eye on the conflict think Iran is secretly backing Armenia, a Christian-majority country. 

Iran has officially called on both sides to cease clashes, offering mediation between the two countries.  

“Generally-speaking, Iran appears to be closer to Armenia in its relations with both countries,” says Bulent Aras, professor of international relations at Istanbul Policy Center-Sabanci University.

Aras recounts several factors for Iran’s implicit support of Armenia, ranging from Iran’s political alliance with Russia, to Tehran’s trade ties with Yerevan. 

But among other reasons, the changing political nature of Iran’s Azeri Turkish population (how the population with Azerbaijani heritage is referred to inside Iran) plays an important role in Tehran’s close connections to Yerevan, says Aras. 

“Increasing Turkish nationalism [among the Azeri Turks] in Iran has been seen as a serious political problem by Iran. Connections and relations between the country’s north [where a sizable Azeri Turkish population lives] and Azerbaijan have been an important factor in Tehran’s political problems with Azerbaijan,” Aras tells TRT World. 

Some Azeris believe that Iran’s Turkic-origin population, which includes Turkmen, Qashgais and other Turkish-speaking groups, might amount to nearly 40 percent. 


Many Azeris call Iran’s north as southern Azerbaijan, where nearly 20 million Azeris live according to different estimates. Some Azeri nationalists and intellectuals have long defined both northern and southern parts as culturally and socially identical, arguing that they should be joined under a political union. 

“In Iran, due to the enormous Turkish population, there has historically been a political fear that two Azerbaijans, Baku [the capital of northern Azerbaijan] and Tabriz [the capital of southern Azerbaijan] might join at some point,” says Esref Yalinkilicli, a Moscow-based Eurasia political analyst. 

“On the other hand, in Azerbaijani political memory and foreign policy, the idea of Greater Azerbaijan has always been an important factor,” Yalinkilicli tells TRT World. 

For centuries, Iran and Azerbaijan had been ruled by Turkic-origin states, from the Seljuks to the Safavids, and eventually the Qajars. During the rule of the Qajars in the 19th century, after losing some crucial battles to the Russians, the Shia-Turkish dynasty ceded some crucial parts of its territories to the Russians – the Aras, or Araxes River, became the border line between the two states, dividing current territories effectively.  

While the northern part of Azerbaijan became part of the Soviet Union as the Azerbaijan Republic after the communist Bolshevik Revolution of 1917, the southern part stayed under the Qajars. They were replaced by the Persian-origin Pahlavi dynasty, the founding family of current Iran, in the early 20th century. 

The political argument of Greater Azerbaijan has long been a threat for the Iranian establishment, which has used its support of Armenia as a counter-measure to minimise Azeri aspirations in Iran and across the region, says Yalinkilicli. 

“Iran’s traditional Armenia policy has long been a balancing act against both Azerbaijan and Turkey across southern Caucasia. As a result, behind-the-scenes, Iran backs Armenia,” Yalinkilicli tells TRT World. 

While Iran has a Shia majority and Azeris are overwhelmingly Shia, Azeris speak a Turkish dialect, which is very close to Turkey’s Turkish, and have established close connections with Ankara since the collapse of the communist Soviet Union. 

Also, national awareness among Iran’s Azeris has increasingly become more evident as globalism has enabled the country’s Turkic-origin population to connect their brethren living in other neighbouring countries including Azerbaijan and Turkey, says Yalinkilicli.

Iran’s other motivations

However, aside from increasing Turkish nationalism in Iran, there are also other political reasons for Tehran’s support of Armenia. 

“Reasons like land disputes between the two countries [Iran and Azerbaijan], increasing nationalism among Azeri Turks, issues regarding how to share natural sources of the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan’s close relations with Israel, [which is an archenemy of Iran across the Middle East] and a political desire to balance Turkey-Azerbaijan relations occasionally lead to some tensions and crisis between Baku and Tehran,” says Aras, the international relations professor. 

Aras also underlines that Iran’s low-profile Armenian policy, which is officially a mediating position between the two countries, might significantly change should the existing political status quo be altered by the clashes in the occupied Karabakh region, which is disputed between Azerbaijan and Armenia. 

“We need to pay attention to what Iran would do if the political status quo changes,” says the professor. 

According to recent reports, Azerbaijan appears to have an upper hand in the Karabakh region, gaining some crucial territories during recent clashes. 

“There is a weak possibility that Iran will militarily intervene in the conflict. But if there is a clear development in favour of Azerbaijan, it could be said that some political groups in Iran would have serious discomfort about that. 

“But there is a little possibility that Iran would reveal that discomfort in its official policy,” he concludes. 

This article has been adapted from its original source.

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Turkey ​Sends ISIS Warlord to Azerbaijan to Face Off Against Putin’s Armenian Allies

Garik Boshkezenian
The Daily Beast
Sept 29 2020
 
 
 Turkey Sends ISIS Warlord to Azerbaijan to Face Off Against Putin’s Armenian Allies
 
WHOEVER WINS… WE LOSE
 
Former ISIS fighters have been dispatched to fight in a European showdown between Turkish and Russian proxies.
 
Muhammad Al-Binshi
Updated Sep. 29, 2020 7:11AM ET / Published Sep. 28, 2020 3:33PM ET
 
AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/Getty
 
ISTANBUL, Turkey—On Sunday afternoon, a video depicting a large convoy of Islamist Syrian rebel fighters yelling enthusiastically as they drove off to war circulated widely on Arabic social media. Fighters in the packed trucks, driving quickly past the group of children filming with their phones, could be heard yelling “Allahu Akbar!” and, “Our leader, 'til the end of time, is our master, Muhammad!”
 
However, what shocked those watching the video weren’t the shouts of the Syrian fighters but rather those of the children filming, who yelled back at the soldiers in a language unfamiliar to most Syrians following their country’s nine-year war. “That’s not Kurdish, right?” said one user in an online group where the video emerged. “If they were Kurds, you think they’d be cheering them on?” responded another with a laugh out loud emoji.
 
Over the next several hours, rumors swirled that the video was shot in Azerbaijan, a small Turkic-speaking nation lodged between Iran and Russia, and that the Syrian rebel fighters had been sent there to prop up the Azeri government in its war against neighboring Armenia that had begun that day. According to high-ranking Syrian rebel sources that spoke to The Daily Beast, these rumors are true. The fighters that appeared in the circulated video were part of a group of 1,000 Syrian rebel soldiers sent in two batches from Turkey on September 22 and 24.
 
“500 Hamza Brigade fighters were flown last Tuesday from southern Turkey to the Azeri airbase at Sumqayit [30 kilometers north of the Azeri capital of Baku]”, according to a source within the Syrian National Army (SNA) rebel outfit who requested anonymity. “Two days later, on Thursday, another 500 fighters from the Sultan Murad brigades rebel faction were similarly flown out to Azerbaijan.”
 
These claims were echoed by the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a Syrian opposition body that monitors human rights violations in the country. SOHR sources suggest more batches of Syrian rebel fighters are preparing to be deployed to Azerbaijan.
 
The Hamza and Sultan Murad brigades are known within Syrian rebel circles as factions that enjoy especially close relations with Turkey, the last remaining patron of the Syrian opposition. Sayf Balud, commander of the Hamza brigades, however, is also known for his checkered past, in particular, as a former commander within the radical jihadist group ISIS.
 
An ethnic Syrian Turkman from the town of Biza’a in Aleppo city’s northern countryside, Balud originally joined the Abu Bakr Sadiq brigades, a moderate rebel faction near his hometown that received widespread support from Gulf states in the early years of the conflict. However, coming from a small, relatively unknown family, Balud failed to climb the ranks of Syria’s rebel movement as quickly as he would have liked, and as others from more prominent backgrounds regularly did. By early 2013, Balud had joined ISIS, whose ranks were staffed mostly by foreigners who couldn't have cared less about the social status of their Syrian recruits.
 
Second Division, Third Legion
 
In July 2013, Balud appeared in an ISIS propaganda video shot in the border town of Tal Abyad after the group successfully captured the city from the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). In the video, Sayf appears next to an Egyptian foreign fighter addressing a room full of two dozen captured YPG soldiers, who were assembled before an ISIS camera crew to officially repent for having joined an armed faction that ISIS’ leadership described as being “at war with God.”
 
Over the next several years, Balud’s star continued to rise, as the commander attained a level of status within ISIS that would have been unattainable in other rebel groups. Despite the large-scale defeat of ISIS across northern Syria at the hands of the YPG in 2016 and 2017, the cunning commander was able to leverage his history of fighting against Kurds to re-invent himself as a valuable client for another foreign patron: Turkey.
 
By January 2018, when Turkish backed rebel forces launched “Operation Olive Branch” to take over the Kurdish canton of Afrin located in Syria’s uppermost northwest corner, Balud regularly appeared in the group’s propaganda videos as the official commander of the newly formed Hamza brigades. His status as an ethnic Turkman, a small minority within Syria whose likeness to their Turkish kinsmen across the border has pushed Ankara to grant many coveted privileges such as Turkish citizenship and sensitive leadership positions, further endeared Balud to his new patrons.
 
According to SNA sources, Syrian rebel units now being sent to Azerbaijan by Turkey are almost exclusively led by ethnic Syrian Turkmen. “Sayf Balud is a Turkman. The Sultan Murad brigade’s commander, Fahim Aissa, is a Syrian Turkman, like Balud. Turkey only trusts factions led by Syrian Turkman to carry out these missions. These are sensitive for Turkey politically, and they don’t trust Syrian Arabs to lead them.”
 
Turkey’s intervention in Azerbaijan is indeed sensitive. After a four-year lull in fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, fighting between the two countries erupted anew on Sunday in fighting that killed two-dozen fighters.
 
Historically the Nagorno-Karabakh region has been internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. But in 1991 Armenian factions within the region declared themselves independent. Three years of war over the disputed territory ended in 1994 with a Russian brokered ceasefire. The newly declared Nagorno-Karabakh republic was soon occupied by Armenia, which has since maintained de facto control of the area. With the exception of four days of fighting in April 2016, Sunday’s clashes were the first major instance of renewed combat between both countries over the status of the area. Both sides accuse the other of having initiated the fighting on Sunday.
 
Clashes continue, with dozens more casualties reported. Fighting alongside the Azeri regular forces were 1,000 Syrian rebel fighters, among them former jihadists led by ex-ISIS commander Sayf Balud.
 
All About the Oil
 
Turkey's move to send Syrian rebels to face-off against Armenia, a longtime rival of Turkey, is just the latest in a long string of neo-Ottoman foreign adventures undertaken by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan over the last 6 months. Ankara has deployed both its armed forces and Syrian proxies to crack down on Kurdish PKK and YPG forces in northern Syria and Iraqi Kurdistan throughout 2020.
 
Turkey has also intervened in western Libya and waters throughout the eastern Mediterranean where its navy has threatened NATO allies France and Greece in an attempt to strongarm both countries and lay claim to gas reserves located within Greece's maritime borders.
 
In Azerbaijan, Turkey is looking to demonstrate loyalty and prop up an oil-rich regime with which it has maintained close military ties since the 1994 ceasefire. Since 2005, they have launched numerous lucrative oil and gas initiatives including a pipeline that exports 1.2 million barrels of Azeri oil per day to the European Union (EU), earning Turkey upwards of $200 million in annual transit fees. In 2006, this cooperation expanded following the launch of the South Caucasus natural gas pipeline that annually exports 8.8 billion cubic meters of much needed Azeri gas to the Turkish market, a net importer of energy.
 
In 2011, Turkey began work on an expansive natural gas production network called the Trans Anatolian Pipeline, which is projected to export 31 billion cubic meters of Azeri gas to the EU by 2026. Turkish shareholders, who own a 30 percent stake in the project, stand to make huge profits.
 
Turkey’s push to transform Azerbaijan into a lucrative oil and gas export hub is also motivated by Ankara’s desire to come out from under Russia’s shadow. Turkey depends on Russia for 40 percent of its fossil fuels, a reliance that has forced Ankara to treat Russia as a friendly nation despite the fact that the two countries share almost no common interests.
 
The “Southern Gas Corridor,” a term referring to the various pipelines emerging out of Azerbaijan, has been heavily cheered on by the EU, which also wants to break its dependence on Russian gas. No surprise then that Russia is on the other side in the ongoing dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh.
 
Nagorno-Karabakh is now the third theater where Russia and Turkey find themselves supporting opposite sides in an active Middle East conflict zone. In Syria, Russian support for dictator Bashar al-Assad and Turkey’s support for the country’s rebels such as Sayf Bulad and others led to direct conflict between both countries’ armies earlier this year, resulting in the death of dozens of Turkish soldiers. In Libya, the situation is reversed, with Turkey supporting Libya’s government and Russia supporting Khalifa Haftar, a renegade general and rebel leader who has sought to seize control of Libya’s lucrative oil sector and capture the capital of Tripoli.
 
In both conflicts, Sayf Bulad and the Hamza brigades have proven extremely useful to Turkey. Thousands of the group’s fighters, including Sayf Bulad, were deployed to Libya last summer to help repel a major assault launched by Russian-backed Khalifa Haftar and in the bargain reclaim territory previously captured by the general. The Turkish backed authority in Tripoli is now safely guarded against external threats, while Turkish companies are set to gain lucrative contracts in Libya’s oil and gas and reconstruction sectors.
 
Within this context of great power struggles, Syria's rebels, once idealistic and seeking to liberate their country from dictator Bashar al-Assad, have found themselves reduced to pawns compelled to serve as mercenaries and shock troops used by Turkey to advance its foreign policy in a world where Ankara finds itself increasingly isolated. In doing so, they find themselves led by and mixed with fighters from the most vicious jihadist group the world has ever seen.
 
 
 

Crude Oil Slumps as Economic Fears Resurface

Jirair Kafian
Yahoo! News
Sept 29 2020

, 2:19 pm

By Geoffrey Smith

Investing.com — Crude oil prices slumped on Tuesday as fears resurfaced once again about the trajectory of global demand amid prospects of a full winter of coronavirus-driven restrictions on economic activity.

The declines were compounded by technical factors, which saw the international benchmark Brent fail to break through its 100-day moving average

By 11:00 AM ET (1500 GMT), U.S. crude futures were down 3.3% at $39.25 a barrel, while Brent was down 2.8% at $41.66 a barrel.

While there appeared to be no single piece of news triggering the slump, the move came against a backdrop of worldwide coronavirus deaths topping 1 million, and U.S. Vice President Mike Pence – not one to exaggerate the threat of Covid-19 – warning that infection rates in the U.S. are likely to rise in the coming days.

Some of the world’s biggest oil traders said earlier Tuesday they saw difficult times ahead.

“"The picture doesn't look very good,” Torbjorn Tornqvist, chief executive of Gunvor, told a panel discussion hosted by Reuters, noting that the recent active buying by Chinese refiners had been excessive and had led to tankers lining up off the Chinese coast to discharge their cargoes.

Russell Hardy, CEO of the world’s biggest trading house Vitol, told the same event he had “modest expectations” for oil prices, seeing consumption staying broadly flat until next summer.

Marco Dunand, the founder and CEO of Swiss-based trading house, meanwhile said he doesn’t see oil consumption coming back to pre-pandemic levels for a few years.

At a meeting of G-20 energy ministers on Monday. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo had said that commercial stockpiles across developed countries are likely to stay well above historical averages for some time yet.

Barkindo said OECD crude stocks would be around 120 million barrels above five-year averages throughout the quarter, and will remain above average on a five-year view in the first quarter of next year, despite an expected decline.

Elsewhere, there was little sign of the market building in any geopolitical risk premium from the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabak enclave. The region is only a few miles away from the route of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline which carries some 1.2 million b/d. There are no reports of shipments being disrupted.


In Quotes: Georgian Politicians on Nagorno-Karabakh Developments

Emil Lazarian
Civil Georgia
Sept 29 2020

Georgian politicians from the ruling Georgian Dream and opposition parties reacted to the recent developments and ongoing military confrontation in Nagorno-Karabakh, unanimously urging for de-escalation and peace.

Below is a compilation of some of the remarks of Georgian politicians on September 27-28.

MP Irakli Sesiashvili, Parliamentary Defense and Security Committee Chairman: “Our Foreign Ministry is constantly in touch with its counterparts… urging for peace and ceasefire. If the [Armenian and Azerbaijani] sides wish Georgia to participate in peace talks, we are fully ready, … but unfortunately today we can not see the signs of it. The international community is involved [in the process] and we could also get involved if needed. We are ready in any direction, [including] humanitarian, to assist both parties…”

Giorgi Khelasvhili, 18th on GD’s election party list: “De-escalation urgently needed between Armenia and Azerbaijan. A renewed Karabakh war is in no-one’s genuine interest, and can throw the entire region back for years if not decades.”

Former President Mikheil Saakashvili, United National Movement: “The military clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia are of great concern to all those for whom peace in our region and our peoples’ well-being is essential… My position is unequivocal and is based on the principle of territorial integrity, which implies that Nagorno-Karabakh is a sovereign territory of the Republic of Azerbaijan, and nothing will change this fact at the same time the dispute shall be settled peacefully. Simultaneously, everyone who has been expelled from the region has the right to return to their homes, and who already live there have the right to live in peace, and their rights must be protected.”

Vice-Speaker, MP Sergi Kapanadze, European Georgia: “At this stage, it is important for us to have a position in support of peace, in support of not allowing events escalate further in the region… During this very hard situation in the region, it is important for the Government of Georgia to work out various alternatives and to be ready for different scenarios. In case of war, a lot of scenarios might unfold that we do not wish to happen.”

Labor leader Shalva Natelashvili: “I call on governments of all three South Caucasian countries to create a South Caucasian Security Council, headquartered in Tbilisi, to discuss and resolve any issues and conflicts there, without any middlemen. We should understand, once and for all, that none of the regional imperial countries want Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan to be independent…”

Teona Akubardia, Strategy Aghmashenebeli: “The [Georgian] Government should timely summon a National Security Council meeting to assess the situation, the threats that this wide-scale war poses to Georgia and the steps Georgia could take to settle the conflict peacefully…”

https://civil.ge/archives/371383/amp?fbclid=IwAR056BAJHY6oohxDkbQzVoID74khlqfjNOy3-5iqd7BBu63-CJqIu9d1wDc

UNSC urges Armenia, Azerbaijan to halt fighting

Albert Nalbandian
NHK World – Japan
Sept 29 2020

The UN Security Council is urging Armenia and Azerbaijan to resume dialogue to end the latest round of heavy fighting over disputed territory.

Niger's UN ambassador, who serves as Security Council president, read out a press statement on the conflict following an emergency session on Tuesday.

In the statement, council members expressed concern at reports of large-scale military actions, condemned the use of force by both sides, and regretted the loss of civilian lives.

The council members also backed UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres' call for an immediate halt to the fighting.

They expressed full support for a central role of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in resolving the conflict.

The council urged Armenia and Azerbaijan to work with the OSCE for a resumption of dialogue.

Fighting broke out on Sunday over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The area in western Azerbaijan is mainly populated by ethnic Armenians.

The death toll on both sides from three days of fighting has reportedly reached 100, including civilians.

At the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, representatives of Armenia and Azerbaijan traded accusations over which side started the conflict.


WP: Two strategically sensitive countries are on the verge of war — and Trump is missing in action

Christine Harutyunian
Washington Post
Sept 29 2020
pinion by David Ignatius
Columnist
at 6:42 PM EDT

The escalating conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has taken a dangerous new turn with Turkey’s reported shootdown Tuesday of an Armenian fighter jet. The Armenian prime minister said in an interview that he fears a wider war between Turkey and Armenia, bitter historic adversaries.

Nikol Pashinyan, the Armenian prime minister, said in a telephone interview that Turkey “is creating instability in its neighborhood, in the eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and now the South Caucuses. It poses an increasing threat to global security.” He said, in addition to the F-16 involved in Tuesday’s reported shootdown, Turkey has been aiding Azerbaijan with drones and mercenary forces from Syria since the conflict erupted Sunday.

The United States, Russia, France and Germany have urged diplomacy, and Pashinyan said he and his colleagues have talked with top officials from all of those countries. But so far there has been no evident progress toward a cease-fire or settlement negotiations.

The State Department has been increasingly concerned about the showdown between a big U.S. ally (NATO-member Turkey) and a close Russian one (Armenia). But President Trump, who in the past has boasted of his friendship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has so far been silent about the situation.

Pashinyan said a Turkish-supported Azerbaijani assault on Armenia itself “has now become a reality,” with shelling of the Vardenis region, east of the Armenian capital, Yerevan. He said the Turkish F-16 that reportedly shot down the Armenian S-25 fighter was providing support for the Azerbaijani attack on the Vardenis area. Russia’s Tass news agency reported the shootdown Tuesday, citing a statement by the Armenian defense ministry. (Both Turkey and Azerbaijan have denied the plane was downed.)

The bitter war exploded Sunday over the disputed territory known as Nagorno-Karabakh. The enclave is claimed by Azerbaijan but populated largely by Armenians, who have run it since a 1994 war wrested control from Azerbaijan. Each side has accused the other of starting the latest round of fighting, but Pashinyan said Azeri President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly threatened such an attack in recent “days, weeks, months.” (Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Twitter that Armenia had “again crossed the line, and this time received a response on the battlefield.”)

“What is happening today is a war declared against the Armenian people,” Pashinyan argued. He said that, because of Turkey’s historic conflict with Armenia, his country faces an “existential threat.” Asked about the threat of an attack from Nakhchivan, a chunk of Azerbaijani territory to the southwest of Armenia, Pashinyan said he has declared martial law and stressed, “We must use all means to defend ourselves.”

In explaining the Turkish threat, Pashinyan cited the murder of more than 1 million Armenians in 1915, in the final years of the Ottoman empire, which has been described as a “genocide” in a resolution passed by the U.S. Congress and recognized by many countries — but denied by Turkey. “Turkey’s president [Erdogan] has turned denial into an official policy of his state,” Pashinyan charged. “’Denialism’ is one of the likely preconditions for a new genocide.”

The Armenian prime minister said Armenia had lost “dozens” of dead and suffered about 200 injured since the fighting began Sunday. He said the Azerbaijanis had lost several hundred dead, plus more than 100 tanks, some helicopters and other equipment. He said that because Armenian forces had repelled attacks on both Karabakh and Armenia, “I hope by now the Azerbaijani president will understand that there is no military solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.”

Pashinyan said he has spoken about a possible diplomatic settlement his week with Russian President Vladimir Putin, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres.

The State Department said Sunday that the United States was “alarmed by reports of large-scale military action” in Karabakh and warned against “participation in the escalating violence by external parties,” a semming reference to Turkey. The statement said Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun had called the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia “to urge both sides to cease hostilities immediately.” Pashinyan said further talks with U.S. officials are planned.

The highest-level U.S. statement about the conflict came Tuesday from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. During a media session with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Pompeo said: “Both sides must stop the violence and work with the Minsk Group co-chairs [Russia, France and the United States] to return to substantive negotiations as quickly as possible."

The Armenia-Azerbaijan standoff is one of those forgotten “frozen conflicts” that have a way of melting down suddenly, when regional and global tensions are on the rise — and when the political stakes in the United States are high. So far, Trump is nowhere to be seen.


As Armenia and Azerbaijan Fight, Here’s Where U.S., Russia, Turkey, Iran Stand

Emil Karabekian
Newsweek Magazine
Sept 29 2020
BY TOM O'CONNOR ON 9/29/20 AT 2:55 PM EDT


With Armenia and Azerbaijan engaged in their deadliest ethno-territorial dispute in years, major world powers are scrambling to respond to the burgeoning crisis in the Caucasus region that bridges Europe and Asia.

On Tuesday, both Turkey and Iran reportedly found themselves directly involved in the battle, while the U.S. and Russia remained closely engaged, calling for an immediate de-escalation.

The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict is rooted in a century of bloodshed that first erupted in the brief period of the neighboring countries' independence after the collapse of the Russian Empire and before the rise of the Soviet Union in the final years of the Ottoman Empire during World War I. It has erupted once again almost exactly 100 years later, escalating rapidly and dangerously in recent days. Both sides are already claiming to have inflicted dozens of casualties, while accusing the other of targeting civilians.

At the heart of this conflict is a disputed territory known as Nagorno-Karabakh. The 1,700- square-mile stretch of territory is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but is mostly ruled by the ethnic Armenian-run separatist government of the Arstakh Republic.

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Armenia and Azerbaijan fought their worst conflict yet amid the collapse of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s and early 1990s, but their dispute rekindled with exchanges of fire in April of 2016 and July of this year. Efforts to keep the peace in the months came to no avail as the rivalry ignited again over the weekend, this time threatening to devolve into all-out war.

Such a conflict has the potential to drag in Russia and Turkey, which back Armenia and Azerbaijan, respectively, as well as neighboring Iran, which shares cultural and religious ties to Azerbaijan but has traditionally been closer to Armenia. Meanwhile, the U.S. eyes yet another border spat abroad, testing Washington's traditional global leadership just weeks ahead of a divisive national election at home.

Russia has kept up close ties with Armenia since the fall of the Soviet Union, with Moscow and Yerevan both being members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Azerbaijan was also once part of the mutual defense pact, but left in 1999.

Still, Moscow and Baku also have strong relations and Azerbaijani representatives even observed the joint Caucasus 2020 exercises involving Russia along with Armenia, Belarus, China, Iran, Myanmar and Pakistan just days before the latest fighting broke out.

Led by Russian President Vladimir Putin for the past two decades, Russia has sought to reclaim former spheres of influence both near and afar. While the U.S. and partnered Western countries have attempted to block Russia in Eastern Europe, it was another rival NATO alliance member, Turkey, that has stepped up its presence in Syria and Libya.

Russia has so far succeeded in avoiding major state-versus-state violence in these other theaters, but Armenian ambassador to Moscow Vardan Toganyan told a Moscow radio station on Monday that Yerevan was prepared to formally request military support from its ally if necessary.


Armenia in Changing Security Environment: Shaping Geopolitical Future

Emil Lazarian
VALDAI
Sept 29 2020
28.09.2020


Ruben Elamiryan

The beginning of the 21st century was marked by global transformations in international relations. They include, in part, the recent change in the world order, which influences the global security system and the strategic environment in many areas of the world by virtue of a knock-on effect, writes Ruben Elamiryan, Head of the Chair of World Politics and International Relations at the Yerevan-based Russian-Armenian University. 

In this context, one of the key issues in current international relations is the future image of the new world order in 5, 10 or 20 years. Different notions, sometimes mutually exclusive, are used to describe it: a new world order, chaos, polycentric and multipolar world and a world without poles, to name a few. 

Without getting too deep into an academic dispute on formulas, it is still possible to say that the changes in the world order boil down to the consolidation and restoration of Russia’s positions, which were lost after the Soviet Union’s collapse, strategic uncertainty, the EU’s search for a geopolitical future, a shift of the US strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific Region and the growth and expansion of China’s interests and influence.

In this contest, the main challenge for Armenia is to realise the role and place of small and medium countries in the new global and regional environments because the growth of global turbulence and uncertainty and the transformation of the world order have set forth the imperative of revising one’s place and role in international relations and shaping one’s geopolitical future. 

Armenia at geopolitical crossroads: Cooperation as a factor of sustainable and stable future 

Armenia’s new 2020 National Security Strategy reads that “the Republic of Armenia implements its foreign policy priorities proceeding from three fundamental, comprehensive and interconnected principles: sovereignty…, the pan-Armenian community…, and cooperation as a means of establishing equitable and mutually beneficial relations with other states.”

Today, Armenia is expanding system-wide and comprehensive cooperation with almost all global and regional centres of power, both on the bilateral and multilateral basis.

Thus, relations between Аrmenia and Russia are founded on the principles of a strategic alliance, which cover all aspects of cooperation – political, military, economic, humanitarian, and others. ng together their Russian colleagues on clearing mines in Syria.

Armenia hosts Russia’s 102nd military base and the Armenian and Russian military jointly defend the republic’s borders, including its air space. Armenian servicemen are working together their Russian colleagues on clearing mines in Syria.

In addition, Russia accounts for 26 percent of Armenia’s trade and has made large direct investments in that country. It is Armenia’s leading trade and economic partner.

At the same time, Russia has the largest Armenian diaspora. According to the 2010 census, about 1.2 million Armenians live in Russia. In expert estimates, this figure may be double that.

Russia is also one of the three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, which is involved in peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

In addition to bilateral cooperation, Armenia is one of the most active participants in regional international organisations promoted by Russia: the CIS, the CSTO and the EAEU.

Therefore, Armenia-Russia cooperation is distinguished by sustainable development of allied strategic relations, and is a key element of stability in the Eurasian security system.

The European Union (EU) is another key partner of Armenia. Today, their relations are developing, in part, under the Eastern Partnership programme (EaP). Its implementation was launched in 2008-2009. In addition to Armenia and the EU, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine take part in this programme. It is aimed at developing relations in the four main areas: political and economic cooperation, mobility of the people and energy security.

At present, relations between Armenia and the EU are mostly based on the Armenia-EU bilateral Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which is currently in the process of ratification. It determines practically all areas of bilateral cooperation.

In addition to this, the EU is Armenia’s second trade and economic partner after Russia.

One more important component of bilateral relations is the EU’s external assistance to Armenia, which grew from 90 million euros at the start of the programme to 208 million euros in 2017.

It is also necessary to emphasise that Armenia takes part in the EU’s Trans-European Transport Network (Ten-T programme), which may become an important factor in connecting traffic routes between the EU and China.

In addition to strategic relations with the EU, Armenia has special relations with most EU member countries. 

In this context, it is worth mentioning France, which has the third largest Armenian diaspora after Russia and the United States. France is a co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group on settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Armenia is also an active member of the International Organisation of La Francophonie. 

Armenia maintains close cooperation with Greece and Cyprus with a view to ensuring regional stability and security in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean against the current threats, some of which are caused by Turkey’s aggressive activities.

Thus, Armenia-EU relations are a strategic factor of Eurasian security in the 21st century, being a guarantor of stability of the European neighbours.

The United States is another key partner of Armenia.

Their bilateral cooperation is determined by a broad range of political, economic, military, social and humanitarian issues.

The website of the Armenian Foreign Ministry notes that “the United States occupies an important place in Armenia’s political and economic life. It takes an active part in the peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as a co-chair of the Minsk OSCE Group on a par with Russia and France. At the same time, the United States is the biggest donor of humanitarian and technical aid to Armenia.”

During his visit to the South Caucasus in October 2018, former US National Security Adviser John Bolton described relations with Armenia as strategically important.

The geographical location of Armenia and its neighbours also increase its importance for the United States.

The Armenia diaspora in the United States, which is the second largest in the world, also plays a major role in promoting bilateral cooperation.

In continuing the discussion of Armenia’s cooperation with the West (today we can speak about the united West), it is necessary to make special mention of its relations with NATO, which date back to the early 1990s. The current stage of cooperation is determined by the Individual Partnership Action Plan (IPAP).

As part of Armenia-NATO cooperation, Armenian units are participating in peacekeeping missions in Kosovo (starting in 2004) and Afghanistan (starting in 2009), thereby contributing to stability and development in Eurasia.

The People's Republic of China (PRC) is a relatively new geopolitical centre of power in the South Caucasus, but its presence is increasing along with the so-called China’s rise.

The Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is one of the main formats of cooperation. Launched in 2013, it is in the process of development and only has an indirect link to the South Caucasus.

Despite this, the sides are developing versatile cooperation.

Thus, Armenia is striving to integrate into the BRI by building the North-South road connecting the Persian Gulf with the Black Sea. In this way, it can become a link between not only China and Europe but also between the Middle East on the one hand, and Russia and Europe on the other. The construction of a railway between Armenia and Iran will greatly facilitate this. With the restoration of the railway traffic between Georgia and Russia this will create a railway link of the Persian Gulf with Russia and Europe.

Importantly, China is building in Armenia its second largest embassy in the post-Soviet space. 

Considering China’s interest in Eurasian strategic stability and Armenia’s striving to develop ground infrastructure with Europe, Armenia may become an important partner and element of the new security system.

It is also important to mention that Armenia’s cooperation with the South-Pacific Region is not limited to China and its Belt and Road Initiative. Thus, Armenia is developing multilateral ties with India, Japan and South Korea.

In 2016, Armenia received a status of dialogue partner in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

The Middle East is another key foreign policy vector for Armenia. Being historically part of that region, Armenia preserves close political, economic and humanitarian ties not only with Iran, with which it has a common border, but also with the majority of the region’s countries, starting with Egypt and ending with Qatar. Beginning in 2018, Armenian sappers have taken part in the Russian mission to clear mines in Syria, with which Armenia has traditionally developed partnership relations and which is home to a large Armenian community.

Armenia strengthens ties with Israel, where Armenian embassy was recently opened (previously the residence of the Armenian ambassador was located in Yerevan).

The Armenian communities play a major role in relations between Armenia and the countries of the Middle East. Being hard hit by the Arab Spring, they still make major contribution to the domestic political life of their countries and their ties with Armenia. 

The above vectors of Armenia’s relations predetermine the model of its geopolitical future, aimed at developing cooperation with Eurasian global and regional centres of power. Armenia must re-evaluate the strategic environment in the world and the region and adapt its foreign policy strategy, priorities and actions accordingly. In this respect, Armenia should pay special attention to the Middle East as a region of vital interests for Armenia and Armenians. Historically possessing, preserving and developing the strategic knowledge and understanding of that region, Armenia may become an effective link and communicator between the Middle East, on the one hand, and Russia, the West and China, on the other.

Armenia’s civilisational identity

Apart from the current trends, Armenia’s identity is largely determined by its civilisational character. 

Historically, Armenia developed for centuries as a local civilisation based on the synthesis of its own values and features with the influence of different cultures, civilisations and religions: starting from Hellenism, Christianity and later the Muslim Middle East, Russian and Soviet culture and Eurasianism. This allowed Armenia to create a unique civilisation that is not only striving but is also capable of conducting dialogue between completely different actors and power centres owing to its strategic insight into different civilisations and cultures. 

At present, there are several projects of Armenia’s future as a civilisation: spiritual Armenia, the Armenian world, a small country – global nation, and fortress Armenia. 

The leitmotif of all these projects is the idea of Armenia as a civilisational bridge, an actor of international dialogue and cooperation.

Interestingly, this is what Russian poet Valery Bryusov wrote about Armenia: “Two forces, two opposite principles intertwined and merged into a new and integrated entity, directing Armenia’s life and shaping the character of its nation for centuries: the origin of the West and the origin of the East, the spirit of Europe and the spirit of Asia. Put on the threshold of the two worlds, and continuously being an arena of clash between nations, which was drawn by the course of events into the greatest upheavals, Armenia was designed by its very destiny to be a reconciler of two different cultures: the culture that was the foundation of the entire Christian West and the culture that is now represented by the Muslim East.”

These words are reflected in realpolitik as well. Thus, in the preamble to the Armenia’s 2020 National Security Strategy, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan writes that during its entire history Armenia became an arena for the clash of civilisations. Renouncing this approach, Pashinyan believes that Armenia must develop as a supporter and venue of dialogue between civilisations.

Moreover, we can speak not only about dialogue but also cooperation of civilisations, which will be discussed later. Armenia has the strategic experience and knowledge received during its historical and cultural development, the functioning of the communities of the Armenian diaspora and its multi-vector international cooperation for reaching this goal.

Thus, the effective combination of mutually supplementary geopolitical and civilisational identities will allow Armenia to develop a sustainable future by acting as a platform of cooperation between Russia, Eurasianism, the West, the Middle East and Asia.

A strong Armenia will also guarantee stability in the region by facilitating the implementation of its partners’ long-term interests.

Defining Armenia’s geopolitical future

In the Asia Chessboard programme of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, former US National Security Advisor Steve Hadley described relations between the leading power centres as “competitive coexistence,” which differs from the Cold War term “peaceful coexistence,” and suggested adopting a new set of principles of coexistence.

Expanding on Hadley’s approach, it seems important to introduce a new notion of “cooperation-based coexistence,” which would not only imply the renunciation of the world’s division into the spheres of influence and the adoption of the new rules of the game but will also facilitate the strengthening of the South Caucasus nations and promote cooperation with them on the principles of equal rights and opportunities, openness and honest competition of all interested parties.

In this respect, it is important to abandon the approach whereby small and medium countries are forced to make a geopolitical choice of joining the camp of one or another power centre.

Considering the complexity, nonlinear nature and diversity of current international relations and also the deep interest of practically all leading power centres in strategic stability in Eurasia and in the South Caucasus in particular, the development of cooperation-based coexistence will make it possible to avoid transferring the mounting confrontation of the global and regional power centres to the territory of small and medium countries. This transfer creates a threat of regional and pan-Eurasian destabilisation and is contrary to the interests of all actors.

Moreover, the development of cooperation-based coexistence will allow the countries of the region to become centres of stability, and, hence, of dialogue and cooperation between the centres of power and civilisations.

In this context, one of the key questions is Armenia’s ability to become one of the links and platforms for developing cooperation-based coexistence in Eurasia.

The answer to this question is positive in view of the aforementioned geopolitical features and identity of the Armenian civilisation.

However, this goal can be reached if Armenia is an understandable and reliable partner for all players. In short-, medium- and long-term perspective, Armenia must ensure the absence of any potential threats to its partners, emanating from its territory or initiated with its participation. 

Moreover, the idea of a link and platform for cooperation may be physical in that it can be expressed in the development of the connecting infrastructure and institutes of cooperation, as well as virtual, technological, that is, consisting of integration and division of labour, in particular, in artificial intelligence and robotics. This must be accompanied by the development of the elites carrying strategic insight and the experience of creating Armenia’s sustainable geopolitical future, and by the development of the human capital that meets the challenges, threats and opportunities of the 21st century.


Pope Francis meets Armenian Apostolic Church leader amid clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh

Emil Lazarian
The Catholic World
Sept 28 2020

Vatican City, Sep 28, 2020 / 10:00 am (CNA).- Pope Francis met with Armenian Apostolic Church leader Karekin II Sunday morning, moving up an appointment scheduled for Monday, because of growing clashes with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh territory.

Nagorno-Karabakh is an area internationally recognized as belonging to Azerbaijan but controlled by ethnic Armenians. Conflict over the enclave, which erupted into war from 1988 to 1994, has grown in recent months, with Turkey declaring support for Azerbaijan and other states calling for a diplomatic resolution. 

With new fighting at the border during the night of Sept. 26-27, Karekin II, known as the Catholicos of All Armenians, asked to move up his meeting with Pope Francis. The two met a day early, on the morning of Sept. 27, before the pope’s weekly Angelus address.

The focus of the approximately 40-minute meeting was the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, according to ACI Stampa, CNA’s partner agency, which spoke to Catholicos Karekin II before he left Rome Sept. 27.

“The pope expressed his concern and his pain. He also informed us that in his message at the Angelus he would reflect on the situation, which he then did,” Karekin II told ACI Stampa.

“I asked my beloved brother Francis to raise his voice so that justice and peace are restored,” he continued. “The meeting was very cordial, as always in the past, and we ended it by praying together for the restoration of peace.”

It was the sixth meeting between Pope Francis and the supreme head of the Armenian Apostolic Church.

Karekin II said he believed that “it is important to resolve the situation, but at the same time it is important that the international media reflect and have a correct judgment on the situation that has arisen, in order to restore justice.”

He had to cancel planned meetings with Cardinal Leonardo Sandri, prefect of the Congregation for Eastern Churches, and Cardinal Kurt Koch, president of the Pontifical Council for the Promotion of Christian Unity, scheduled for Sept. 28.

He said he had a good relationship with both offices.

The Armenian Apostolic Church regards the apostles Bartholomew and Thaddeus as its founders. The Kingdom of Armenia became the first state to adopt Christianity as its official religion in the fourth century.

The Armenian Apostolic Church has an estimated nine million members worldwide, including around 97% of the almost three million people living in Armenia. It is one of six churches belonging to the Oriental Orthodox communion.

During a visit to Armenia in 2016, Pope Francis reiterated his desire for “full unity” with the Armenian Apostolic Church.

Pope Francis urged people to pray for peace in the Caucasus region after his Angelus address Sept. 27.

“I ask the parties to the conflict to make concrete gestures of goodwill and brotherhood, which can lead to solving problems not with the use of force and arms, but through dialogue and negotiation,” he said.

This was Francis’ second appeal for the region, after he said he was praying for the victims of clashes and their families following the Angelus July 19.


https://www.catholicworldreport.com/2020/09/28/pope-francis-meets-armenian-apostolic-church-leader-amid-clashes-in-nagorno-karabakh/?fbclid=IwAR0tMFn_515SYciurWYZPcPdJ5i1Hn8pyyJy3D2LXrT9t-FdCJBj1yZYHyE