Putin’s Hand Was Shaking
Igor Muradyan, Political Analyst
Comments – 06 September 2014, 19:50
It is becoming obvious that the center of gravity of the international
conflicts has confidently moved to the Black Sea which was considered
a relatively stable region for a long time. In reality, however, there
has never been stability here, and there was something like balance of
forces between two major Black Sea states – Russia and Turkey – and
this circumstance became the main hindrance to intensifying
military-political presence of NATO and the United States in the Black
Sea region.
Research conducted in different political centers of the United
States, Europe and Russia has allowed figuring out the place of the
Black Sea Caucasus in actual politics. In most general terms, it is
possible to state that the United States, despite its attempts to
cooperate with Russia on a number of issues, is trying to maintain
certain tension in the Black Sea and South Caucasus region, as well as
the Caspian for the purpose of containment of not only Russia but also
Iran.
Such “framework” tension allows legitimizing a certain level of
military-political presence of the United States in the region, carry
out its intentions relating to medium and small states of the region,
attract them to participate in the U.S. strategy.
In this respect, the key question of actual regional research is: what
role and importance is envisaged by the United States for Turkey in
this region?
The intentions of the United States in the Black Sea and the South
Caucasus had quite limited logistical goals rather than large-scale
strategic ones which are aimed at moving forward-based objects to the
central regions of Eurasia. This contradicts the present intentions of
the United States in the regions of the Near East, Central and South
Asia.
The United States was not going to set up permanent military bases and
has formed a system of military logistics to support possible actions
in case of occurrence of threats to their interests and interests of
their partners in the West and Eurasia.
American experts think the United States had different intentions and
over the past few years have revised them to match the changing
situation. The United States did not need to boosts its military
forces in this region. It intended to maintain the balance of forces
in the Black Sea and the South Caucasus and, according to the
Americans, they have succeeded.
At present, in fact, there is a military intervention or strong
political pressure from Russia’s side, and the United States only
responds and reacts. The Americans are still interested in the setup
of the secure logistical system which may enable effective
transportation of military cargo and military contingent to Central
Asia without hindrances which, unlike the South Caucasus, is acquiring
greater importance for the United States.
The United States is viewing the United States as an important region
where activities aimed at China’s containment will be staged and the
importance of which has not weakened after the withdrawal of the
American troops from Afghanistan. The United States has broad
military-organizational tasks in Central Asia, which requires reliable
communications.
Aside from this, the United States must continue to implement
objectives aimed at ensuring the security of oil and gas
communications, both existing and presumed, the importance of which
has dropped considerably due to changes in the global situation of
carbohydrates. The intentions of the United States are not related to
the setup of front-based military objects but provision of reliable
means of communication.
The United States is trying to redirect the problems of the South
Caucasus to the European Union, i.e. have the Europeans cover expenses
and goals relating to the problems of integration of the region with
the European political and economic space.
The solution of the issues of accession of Georgia to NATO in the
short-term and medium-term perspective appears impossible due to both
the factor of Russia’s resistance and internal problems of NATO which
cannot afford and continue its enlargement.
Like in respect to the states of the Near East, the United States is
conducting a policy of strengthening defense capacity of the South
Caucasian countries and prevention of foreign pressure and
intervention. In this respect, the impression is that this U.S. policy
supposes prevention of intervention and pressure not only by Russia
but also by Turkey.
At the same time, these “frequent” movements do not resolve the
general goal – limitation of the influence of Russia and Turkey in the
Black Sea region. The United States is close to the necessity to
resolve the problems it had discerned a long time ago, and Washington
has always understood that sooner or later they would have to make
decisions on what Russia fears – creation of American bases in the
region.
Now, on the days of the NATO summit in Wales, it is clear that the
United States with the help of the United Kingdom and several other
members of the alliance, not NATO will resolve this issue. Without
creating a front-based system the United States cannot resolve the
problem of security in Eastern Europe and entire Europe.
Even radical Russian political scientists cannot deny that these U.S.
plans and intentions had been provoked, and they would not have been
there had Russia not pushed its way through without having necessary
sufficient forces and capacity.
Russia is at a loss, and the United States felt the historical chance
to return NATO’s former dynamics. The Russian mass media have
announced that Vladimir Putin has outlined a plan of settlement of the
Ukrainian crisis on board the plane, with his right hand on the left
knee but they did not specify that his hands were shaking. Whenever
the global system runs into a fragmentary crisis, the best thing is to
swallow the factors of the crisis, and highly unpleasant consequences
are awaiting Russia.
However, the problem of the policy and interests of Europe persists.
Europe does not hurry to consolidate with the United States to defend
European security, which has become absurd. The best way of inspiring
Europe to take more decisive actions is to shift the focus and centers
of tension in Europe from Central Europe to the Black Sea, i.e. the
Black Sea-Caucasus.
In fact, the model of the Crimean war is applied when the question is
whether Turkey will participate in this military-political action.
However, most probably, they will do without Turkey which cannot
continue to be a more or less reliable partner to NATO and the United
States.