ONE TOPIC CLOSED. LET’S GO ON TO THE NEXT
The topic of weapon supply to Azerbaijan by Russia and all the
accompanying issues have been elaborated sufficiently, everyone who
found it necessary bothered to express their opinion. Real formats of
Russian-Armenian relations, framework interests and controversies,
geopolitical and economic goals and objectives of Russia became
absolutely clear. A quite elaborate dossier has been collected on most
Armenian political scientists, experts and commentators which will
be useful soon. What conclusions can be drawn from this “discussion”?
The Russian military and political bloc with certain formats was not
accomplished, and the achievements that are in place are coming apart.
The main factors and reasons of fiasco of Russian strategies like
European strategy are on the whole clear, as well as the policy of
bloc allegiance which is first of all linked to deep and irretrievable
public, state-political, ethno-demographic and confessional crisis
of the Russian people.
Betrayal of interests of partners remains one of the important levers
and approaches to Russia’s foreign policy due to the lack of balance
between goals and possibilities, priority of short-term goals over
long-term ones as consequences of “imperial” losses of the Russian
state and society, extremely economized politics.
Russia has been unable to set up closer relations with the United
States, Europe and China, which condemns it to global international
isolation, i.e. a global marginal role which limits it to the energy
and raw material model of economy and comprador nature of the economic
and political class.
Moscow made sure that despite failure and formation of closer and more
binding relations with Ankara Turkey has appeared in the shoes of an
unwanted and problematic partner of the Western community and there are
hopes for setting up more credible Russian-Turkish relations. One of
the approaches in this direction is establishment of closer relations
with Azerbaijan as a factor of rapprochement with Turkey.
Apart from other goals, mostly economic ones, supply of weapons to
Azerbaijan intends to put severe pressure on Armenia, force it to make
incredible concessions, including return of Karabakh to Azerbaijan,
as well as change of government.
Such a policy will collapse earlier than Russia will manage to
“betray” the interests of Armenia but the essence of the Russian
policy on this direction lies on the principle of “sacrifice and
sacrifice Armenians”. It is understood that bidding on Russia in this
perspective means accelerating the sad end.
The current exaggerated “discussion” may have been foreseen by Moscow
to accelerate the processes and organize scandals which is apparently
supposed to alert the Western community ahead of the famous decisions
on the integration of Armenia with the EU. This goal will hardly be
achieved but at the same time significant changes took place in the
Armenian society, and its understanding of the need for continuity of
the chosen foreign political path. The EU and the foreign ministries
of leading European states have worked out possible scenarios
of Moscow’s reaction to Armenian policy. One is surprised at how
thoroughly these scenarios have been worked out given the inertness,
slowness, limited interest of European administrators. Most probably,
there is a commonly agreed policy. It once again confirms that the
“discussion” of Russian supply of weapon to Azerbaijan and several
other questions should be suspended, it is meaningless to continue.
Armenia will have to step on other political arenas and take care about
their combat capability. In regard to Russia there is no need to take
abrupt steps. This is what Moscow is expecting, it did everything one
could expect. It is necessary not to be a favorable factor for Russia’s
policy aimed at strengthening its relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan.
Despite the lack of a so-called strategic partnership Russia and
Armenia have common interests both in regional policy and in a larger
scope, and it is necessary to handle these tasks. In the current
situation and in the visible future Russia will not be able to impose
itself as a rival or radical enemy of Armenia, its possibilities are
limited. Development of relations of Armenia with NATO and the EU
will determine the new perspective when the second war in Karabakh
will lead to complete loss of Russia’s position in the region.
If the current Russian-Armenian contractual relations are ever
suspended, it will happen only in the result of failure of general
conditions of the pro-Russian defense bloc. Acceleration of ousting
Armenia from these relations will only accelerate the collapse of CSTO
and other relations of Russia with its “partners”. These “partners”
are already wondering about their role in Russia’s plans given how
the Russians treated Armenians.
There are a number of other interesting topics of geopolitical and
political nature, including relations with Russia, such as the topic
of Russia’s ties with certain circles in Armenia, which is directly
linked to national security issues.
Igor Muradyan 15:19 25/07/2013 Story from Lragir.am News: