Are New Countries in Europe Possible?

Politika website, Serbia
22 Jan 2013

Are New Countries in Europe Possible?

by Ivana Anojcic:

If borders change in England and Belgium, that model could also be
applied to Kosmet [Kosovo-Metohija, K-M] and Bosnia.

Will Europe see major changes in the next 20 years, as predicted by
Russian experts based on documents from America’s CIA, Russia’s GRU
[military intelligence agency], and expert groups headed by Zbigniew
Brzezinski and Samuel Huntington, who have drawn up the map “New
Europe” as of 2035?

According to them, Scotland will declare independence after a
referendum, and that will inspire the unification of Ireland. The
Catalans and Basque will declare independence from Spain, and one
consequence of that will be the collapse of multiculturalism in
France. An Islamic state will emerge in the area around Marseille, the
Lorraine area centred on Strasbourg will be appended to Germany, and
Corsica will declare independence.

Belgium will also fall apart, with the Flemings joining the
Netherlands. Italy will split into a wealthy north and a poor south,
and Sardinia and Sicily will declare independence. The territory of
B-H will be divided by Serbia and Croatia. In order to appease Turkey,
a Greater Albania will come into being, made up of Albania, Kosovo,
the territory that the Albanians call the Presevo valley, and part of
western Macedonia. Hungary will regain part of its former territory in
Romania and northern Banat. Poland will have to give up part of its
territory following new agreements between Russia and Germany. Belarus
will cease to exist and will become part of Russia, as will parts of
the Baltic states and Ukraine. It is also believed that Russia will
not be able to hold on to Chechnya and Dagestan. According to the
Russian experts, the scope of the changes will depend on social and
political instability.

Slobodan Markovic, an associate professor at the Faculty of Political
Science, points out that the Russian experts have included the caveat
that the changes will depend on social and political instability. He
says that it is impossible right now to project whether they will take
place, and he recalls that only Zbigniew Brzezinski projected the
collapse of the USSR. “If you compare the maps of Europe in 1910 and
1920, they show huge changes, because four empires disappeared. No one
could have predicted that.”

Markovic says that this map reflects political interests, not a
serious analysis. “Germany and Russia gain territory, but Russia also
loses territory. Changes in the 20th century occurred after World Wars
I and II and after the Cold War. In our case, changes occurred after
the Cold War. There is also the possibility of new states being
created now. For example, that is allowed under the Constitution of
Great Britain. In Belgium there is discussion in clubs about changing
that country’s borders. In some countries, there will not be big
changes. If Scotland does secede, it will still retain some connection
with Great Britain.”

However, Markovic says that if there is a negotiated change of borders
in western Europe, that will become a model. “If changes in borders
are agreed to, that will have direct consequences for Kosovo-Metohija,
Bosnia-Hercegovina, and Macedonia. The Flemish, Walloon, or Scottish
model will be applied to K-M, B-H, and Macedonia. If there is a
confederation in Belgium, it is not impossible that that will be
replicated.”

Markovic thinks that it is impossible that an Islamic state will arise
in the Marseille region or that the Lorraine area in France will be
appended to Germany. “That seems tendentious.”

Historian Predrag Markovic believes that this map is like the game of
Risk and that the only border changes are in our region. “Yugoslavia’s
borders were redrawn despite the Helsinki Charter. That also happened
in Nagorno-Karabakh, Ossetia, and Abkhazia. The border was changed in
Kosmet, but that cannot be said of Macedonia because it does not exist
as a functional state. In Bosnia-Hercegovina, the two entities are
indifferent to border changes. It is possible that Scotland will
secede and that Albania will change its border.”

[Translated from Serbian]

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