“KOCHARYAN HANDWRITING” IN ARMENIAN POLITICS
Vestnik Kavkaza
Nov 21 2012
Russia
David Stepanyan, Yerevan, exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
As we approach the 18th of February 2013, the election landscape
in Armenia is starting to clear up. The main intrigue on the eve
of the presidential election was the position of the “Prosperous
Armenia” Party (PAP). However, the Secretary of the PAP faction,
Naira Zohrabyan, announced recently that the party had begun a
series of political consultations on the possible consolidation of
political forces around the idea of switching to a parliamentary form
of government, which will increase the role of political forces in
the country. There was already a meeting between representatives of
the PAP – Vardan Oskanyan, Naira Zohrabyan – and representatives of
the ARF – Armen Rustamyan and Arsen Ambartsumyan – as well as between
the PAP and the “Heritage” party. A meeting with representatives of
the Armenian National Congress (ANC) is expected in the near future.
According to Zagrobyan, having their own candidate at the elections
is a milestone for the PAP. The party has already started meetings
with voters in all regions of the country, after which the political
council is going to solve the issue of the PAP’s participation in the
election. In the personal opinion of Zagrobyan, if the party decides
to run in the elections with its own candidate, it must be PAP leader
Gagik Tsarukyan.
Party authorities immediately responded to the statement of the PAP.
The spokesman for the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), Deputy
Speaker Eduard Sharmazanov, described the PAP’s statement on the
need to move from a presidential system to a parliamentary system as
“a primitive political move.” The Deputy Speaker also threw a stone
in the garden of the former president of Armenia (and, according to
rumours, the shadow leader of the PAP), Robert Kocharyan. According
to Sharmazanov, it would be politically short-sighted not to see that
behind the people who make statements about a sudden transition to
a parliamentary system, there are those “who are not able to come to
power openly.” The parliamentary group secretary of the RPA, Hovhannes
Sahakyan, does not fully agree with the opinion of their partner
party, believing that the intention of the Prosperous Armenia Party
to begin consultations on the idea of transition to a parliamentary
system completely fits into the framework of the PAP’s campaign.
Sahakyan generally does not see the position articulated by the PAP
as the ” handwriting” of the former president Robert Kocharyan, whose
political ambitions nobody doubts, but in fact no secret handwriting
at all.
The RPA’s grievances are obvious. Back in February 2011, the PAP
with the Republicans and the “Rule of Law” party signed a letter
of support for the candidate Serzh Sargsyan. A few days ago the
Republicans officially announced their intention to participate in the
elections with the current head of state. But the PAP is hesitating,
provoking the righteous anger of opponents. If the PAP announced its
intention to begin consultations on the issue of consolidation around
a single presidential candidate in the person of Gagik Tsarukyan,
it would look prosaic and predictable. So the party went the other
way, stating the need to unite not around a political heavyweight
but around a particular idea – the idea of unification of political
forces to go to a 100% proportional election system and, accordingly,
a parliamentary form of government.
41 MPs of the 131-member parliament are elected in a
first-past-the-post system, while the other 90 are lected
proportionally. Back in May, during the parliamentary elections, the
PAP carefully avoided joining the initiative of the ARF on the move
to 100-percent proportional system. Given that the views of PAP in
the last few months have not change dramatically, someone must have
helped to determine the election strategy. Who could this be? Gagik
Tsarukyan, Robert Kocharian, or helpers from Moscow?
An expert at the Armenian Center for Political and International
Studies, Ruben Mehrabyan, believes that the intention of the PAP to
start consultations on the idea of a transition to a parliamentary
system of government is a clearly visible “Kocharyan track”, because
the PAP has always been the mouthpiece of Kocharyan, who created this
political force. Mehrabyan does not believe that this proposal means
a reluctance to support the candidacy of Serzh Sargsyan, because
if the PAP and the ruling party agree on Sargsyan’s candidacy, the
new initiative will not interfere with it. “In reality, the PAP is
trying to determine their political prospects, securing success in the
parliamentary elections and ensuring a decent political future. In
this light, this initiative should be seen only as an element of
political bargaining between the PAP and the Republican Party,”
Mehrabyan told VK.
This view has found justification in the form of statements by the
leader of “National Accord”, Aram Harutyunyan, considered an ally
of Robert Kocharyan. Harutyunyan said that in the elections the PAP
must put forward its own candidate, otherwise the party will sing its
“swansong.” According to him, the nomination will create significant
problems for the authorities. At the same time, Harutyunyan said
that in the case of participation in the presidential race, Robert
Kocharyan will be its undisputed favourite.
It can be concluded that the recent initiative of the PAP is
seen as”Kocharyan’s handwriting”, which many in Armenia rightly
feared. It seems that the second president of the opposition decided to
consolidate the field around the PAP, since only in this case can the
candidate of that party appear to have any chance of competing with the
Republicans, or more precisely, from an administrative colossus. Given
that the nomination of Tsarukyan and even Kocharyan could not serve
as bait for the notorious consolidation, PAP offered not a candidate
but an idea. This idea, of course, is not new, but good enough. And
for its successful implementation in practice it requires effective
consultations that will be acceptable to many political forces. It
was a good choice, because this idea is supported by very different
forces – the ANC, “Heritage” and “Dashnaktsutiun”.
After a successful consultation, capable of consolidating the leading
opposition forces, the PAP can begin to implement the second part of
its plan – to bargain with the Republicans for a “political future”
in the form of the greatest portions of the economic portfolios in
the government.
Given that the administrative apparatus is in the hands of the
Republicans, the chances of the PAP are virtually zero. But to create
serious competition is certainly possible. Therefore, Serzh Sargsyan
has to come to an agreement with the PAP if he wants to have calm
elections. But it might be quite difficult for the republicans if
the consultations go well. For this, Sargsyan and his team need to
show resourcefulness and give large chunks of economic and political
influence to the PAP. These belong to the Republican Party bosses
and by sharing them Sargsyan and his entourage will inevitably
have to share power as well. That is why in the near future the
Republicans will continue to lay “bombs” for the PAP and its “ideas”
of consultations. The price that the ruling party will have to pay
its competitors so that they recognize the results of the elections
is too high Today, it all depends on how successful the “constructive
idea” of the PAP would be and on the subversive activities of the
Republicans. Attempts by Vardan Oskanyan and “attacks” on certain
members of the PAP, who were reminded of their “dark pasts”, so far
speak for the success of the Republicans. Accordingly, the success of
the PAP’s ideas directly depends on the extent to which these ideas
are supported by third players in the form of the ANC, the ARF and
“Heritage”.
The statement of “Prosperous Armenia” does not mean that the party is
not going to go to the presidential elections in consensus with the
ruling Republican Party. The main thing that is required is not even
a refusal to participate in the elections. The party, of course, can
take part in them, most likely in the person of Gagik Tsarukyan. The
PAP needs to lose the election and to recognize the results.
Fortunately, “democracy” is never superfluous, especially in the case
of “Republican-Prosperous” Armenia. .