AZERBAIJAN: BETWEEN IRAN AND A HARD PLACE
By Ariel Cohen
Tert.am
22.03.12
Republished from The National Interest
The Former Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan is a small country sandwiched
between Russia and Iran along the coast of the Caspian Sea, which
is in fact the largest salt lake on earth, not a sea. Americans
should not feel bad if they can’t find it on a geography quiz. But
due to its unique location, the country is playing an increasingly
important role in the West’s confrontation with Iran. So far this
year, Azerbaijani security services have arrested three groups of
Iranian agents planning terrorist attacks against American businesses,
Western oil companies, Israeli diplomats and prominent members of the
Jewish community. Just last week, a network of twenty-two Iranian
agents trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps was rolled
up in this Caspian Sea country.
Theocrats in Tehran also have a problem with the Azerbaijani
leadership’s secular nature. This is not surprising, as millions
of ethnic Azeris live in northern Iran-or Southern Azerbaijan-under
ethnic and linguistic discrimination and may want a freer life like
their brethren in Azerbaijan.
Iran is attempting to undermine secular Azerbaijan by paying off
preachers in mosques, stirring up religious extremism in the country’s
South, beaming in Shiite Islamist propaganda broadcasts and supporting
radical organizations. The government in Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku,
is guarding against radical Shiite organizations that may try to gain
political power.
The Larger Neighborhood
Yet the animosity is not only about religious observance but also
about geopolitics. Relations between Iran and Azerbaijan have steadily
deteriorated as Azerbaijan continues to develop its ties to its
“older sister” Turkey, the United States, NATO and Israel.
Azerbaijan is caught between the rock of the Iran nuclear-program
sanctions and the hard place of the Iranian reaction. The United
States and the West, with Israel’s encouragement, have led the effort
to impose sanctions to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
As the 2010 U.N. Security Council vote demonstrated, even Russia and
China may agree to support such sanctions under proper conditions-even
if the critics say that the sanctions were massively diluted. As
sanctions start to bite, Iran may grow more wary of its small northern
neighbor-and become more aggressive.
Azerbaijan is not the only country in the region that Iran targets.
The Iranian intelligence and its Hezbollah subsidiary last month
conducted operations against Israeli targets in Tbilisi, Georgia as
well as in New Delhi and Bangkok. According to some experts, Iran
is wary of a major confrontation, but wants to provoke Israel into
smaller confrontations because it needs an external threat around
which it can organize its increasingly dissatisfied population.
Common interests have led to stronger ties between Azerbaijan and
the West. For Baku, this partnership has meant more options for
countering Iranian influence in the region. For example, Israel has
supplied Azerbaijan with $1.6 billion worth of arms while reportedly
building a drone factory there. Iran’s ally Armenia, embroiled in a
long conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, is livid. And
a glance at a map reveals that should Washington or Jerusalem decide
to execute an air strike against Iranian nuclear targets, Azerbaijan
may become prime real estate.
It is highly unlikely Baku would agree to provide air bases for such
a strike. The operation would end, but the neighborhood won’t change:
geography condemns Iran and Azerbaijan to be neighbors. It is up to
them to define the quality of their neighborhood.
Tensions Rise
Azerbaijan’s ministers of foreign affairs and defense recently went
out of their way to point out that relations between Baku and Tehran
are good, reiterating that Azerbaijan will not allow its territory
to be used for a strike against Iran. But the ayatollahs appear not
to be listening.
During the recent visit to Iran by the Azerbaijani defense minister
Safar Abiyev, the national flag of Azerbaijan was hung upside down-with
the green strip symbolizing Islam up top. Iran wants Shiite Azerbaijan
to fall in line with its version of religion and not to emphasize
Turkic identity, which brings it closer to Turkey. (This wasn’t the
first time the Iranians have offended their neighbors to the north
by disrespecting their flag; a similar incident occured during a 2005
Tehran visit by President Ilham Aliyev.)
Iranians are not only operating terrorist networks on Azerbaijani
territory. Senior ayatollahs were also allegedly behind the 2006 murder
of Rafiq Tagi, a prominent Azeri writer against whom a senior cleric
issued a fatwa sentencing him to death. Though Baku kept relatively
quiet about the murder, the third wave of antiterrorist arrests since
the beginning of the year is seen as a reprisal by Baku, signaling
Iran to “play by the rules.”
The United States has a clear national-security interest in keeping
Baku safe. Washington should lead the West’s efforts to boost
cooperation with Azerbaijan, including counterterrorism, intelligence
cooperation and border-security improvements. The White House is also
likely to ask for relaxation of tough domestic political controls.
To facilitate the relationship, however, the Obama administration
should appoint a new, highly visible U.S. ambassador to Baku after
Matthew J. Bryza’s recess appointment expired at the end of 2011.
Before Bryza’s appointment, the ambassador’s residence in Baku
was empty for over a year, which immensely annoyed the Azeris. The
United States also lacked an Ambassador in Ashghabad, on the other
side of the Caspian, for many years. That’s no way to win friends
and influence gas-rich countries.
Finally, it is time to facilitate an agreement over the
Nagorno-Karabakh issue and engage Azerbaijan as a true strategic
partner in the region-rather than a supply outpost for Afghanistan
or an alternative “gas station” beyond the Persian Gulf.
Azerbaijan will play a significant role in how the West deals with
Iran in the future. It provides a unique and tolerant secular Shia
Turkic model which should be a guiding light to other majority-Muslim
countries. It is a major oil and gas supplier. No matter what happens
in Iran, it is and should remain a long-term partner and friend of
the United States.
From: Baghdasarian