HISTORIC WIN: ERDOGAN BECOMES THE FIRST TURKISH PM IN THE LAST 50 YEARS TO WIN THREE ELECTIONS CONSECUTIVELY
JOHN CHERIAN
Frontline
Jul. 02-15, 2011
India
INDIA’S NATIONAL MAGAZINE from the publishers of THE HINDU
In a landmark event, Recep Tayyip Erdogan becomes the first
Turkish Prime Minister in the last 50 years to win three elections
consecutively.
THE landslide victory of the Justice and Development Party, or AKP,
in the June 12 parliamentary elections, has not come as a big surprise
to observers of the Turkish political scene. The AKP got more than
50 per cent of the votes cast but this could only translate into 326
seats in the 550-member Parliament. This is short of the two-thirds
majority needed to make major policy and constitutional changes that
the party had promised in its election manifesto.
The AKP will need the help of opposition parties to fulfil its
wide-ranging promises. It will now be forced to cut deals with the
Centre-Left Republican People’s Party (CHP), the main opposition
grouping. The CHP polled three million more votes this time, increasing
its vote share from 21 to 26 per cent.
The CHP’s new leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, managed to change the
image of the party. Under the previous leader, the CHP was seen as a
mouthpiece of the armed forces and the elite. Now it has rebranded
itself as a social democratic party. Incidentally, it is the only
party that could increase its representation in Parliament. The extreme
right-wing Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) managed to get the votes
(above the 10 per cent cut off point) needed to have a presence in
Parliament despite the sex scandals plaguing its top leadership.
The AKP had hoped that the MHP’s vote share would dip below the 10 per
cent threshold so that the seats allotted to the MHP would end up in
its kitty. With the votes registered for the MHP upsetting this plan,
the AKP has been left without a two-thirds majority.
All the same, the electoral outcome set the stage for a landmark
event in Turkey. AKP leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan becomes the first
Turkish Prime Minister in the last 50 years to win three elections
consecutively. Erdogan became Prime Minister for the first time in
2003 after the newly formed AK Party won a majority with only 34
per cent of the votes. During his first term, Erdogan succeeded in
reviving the country’s faltering economy and implemented a foreign
policy that has made Turkey a key player in regional politics. Turkey
has become a role model for the people in the region as they seek to
overthrow authoritarian regimes.
Erdogan’s third term has the potential to be a historic one if he
manages to fulfil his promise of rewriting the 1982 Constitution and
find a lasting solution to the long-running Kurdish problem. The
current Turkish Constitution was written after 1980 following a
military coup and has an authoritarian imprint. Even the staunchly
secular CHP has accepted that the Constitution is outdated.
The Turkish state has expended a lot of its energy and resources
in dealing with the Kurdish problem. At the beginning of Erdogan’s
second term in office, both sides seemed to be willing to settle their
problems amicably, with the state recognising the Kurdish identity and
the Kurds reciprocating by giving up their secessionist demands. But
progress towards a comprehensive settlement has been stalled owing to
a variety of factors. Erdogan took the first steps to reach out to the
sizable Kurdish minority, which had been alienated during the decades
of authoritarian rule. The Erdogan government took the initiative
to recognise officially the Kurdish language and allow its use in
television programmes and radio shows. In the last elections, in view
of these policies, the AK Party did quite well in the Kurdish-dominated
north-eastern part of the country.
But this time around, the Kurdish nationalists opposed to the AKP have
swept the region. The Kurds were angry at the failure of the government
to devolve powers and release all political prisoners. The government
has refused to lift the ban on the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK),
which has spearheaded their struggle. Its leader, Abdullah Ocalan, is
serving a life term in a high-security prison. The pro-Kurdish Peace
and Democracy Party (BDP), which won 35 crucial seats in Parliament
in the June election, wants the government to allow the use of the
Kurdish language in the administrative and educational institutions
in the north-eastern region.
The BDP has demanded the speedy release of political prisoners
and an end to the military operations against the PKK. The Kurdish
conflict has resulted in the death of more than 40,000 civilians
and has polarised the nation. The PKK has threatened to resume the
hostilities if the government did not start formal talks with its
leadership at the earliest. Erdogan is unlikely to make any more
concessions to the Kurds. He has said on several occasions that he
considers the issue solved.
Erdogan, meanwhile, continues to stride the Turkish political stage
like a colossus. He has won more votes in this election than he did
four years ago. He won around 47 per cent of the votes in 2007. His
personal popularity at this juncture seems to be rivalling that of
Kemal Ataturk, the legendary founder of modern-day Turkey. It was
during his second term that Erdogan consolidated his hold on the state
machinery, managing to sideline the powerful armed forces which had
played a central role in the country’s politics for more than five
decades. During his first term in office, the top leadership of the
Turkish army, in alliance with influential sections of the political
establishment and the judiciary, known as the “deep state”, almost
succeeded in overthrowing the AKP government in a “soft coup”.
Influential sections of the top army brass had accused the AKP of
trying to subvert the secular ideology of the state.
During his second term, aided by a booming economy, Erdogan eased into
the role of a world statesman. For the first time, a Turkish leader
dared to take a stand that differed from that of the West. Even during
his first term in office, when he was on slippery political ground,
Erdogan had showed that he was capable of taking decisions that were
unpalatable to Washington. Soon after coming to power, he saw to it
that the United States’ forces were not allowed to invade neighbouring
Iraq through the Turkish land borders. That move proved to be popular
among the electorate and paid rich dividends in the 2007 elections.
ACTIVIST FOREIGN POLICY
Under Erdogan, Turkey’s relations with Israel have witnessed dramatic
changes. Turkey was the only Islamic nation with whom Israel had
close political and strategic ties. Israel’s invasion of Lebanon,
followed by its barbaric attack on the Gaza Strip, elicited strong
negative reactions from Ankara. Joint military exercises were scaled
down gradually. Bilateral ties hit rock bottom after nine Turkish
civilians on a humanitarian mission to Gaza were killed in cold blood
by Israeli commandos in international waters. Erdogan ordered his
Ambassador back. The strategic and military relationship between the
two countries is now in a shambles. Erdogan’s actions boosted his
popularity not only within Turkey but also in the Arab world. In
his first major speech after the election results were announced,
Erdogan emphasised that Turkey would continue to follow an activist
foreign policy.
But all of a sudden, Turkey has been confronted with new foreign
policy challenges. The “Arab Spring” has taken the Turkish government
by surprise. To Erdogan’s credit, he was among the first leaders to
call for the exit of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak after massive
demonstrations in Cairo calling for his resignation began in January.
In Libya and Syria, he faces a bigger predicament. Turkey’s bilateral
ties with Syria became exceptionally strong after Erdogan came to
power. In the late 1990s, the two countries had almost gone to war.
Ankara had accused Damascus of aiding the PKK and giving refuge to
Ocalan. After he came to power, Erdogan struck a warm rapport with
Syrian President Bashar al Assad. Turkish companies started investing
heavily in Syria. Turkey helped Syria emerge out of the diplomatic cold
when it was under immense pressure from the West following the American
invasion of Iraq. Turkish companies had also invested heavily in Libya.
The turmoil in these two countries can have unforeseen consequences
for Turkey. The Turkish economy, which has been witnessing an annual
growth rate of 9 per cent for the past few years, could be impacted
if the uncertainty in the region continues. Turkey ranks 17th among
the world’s top economies. Erdogan’s ambition is to bring Turkey into
the ranks of the top 10 economies.
Erdogan had initially tried to mediate a truce in Libya but was
rebuffed by his North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) allies
led by the U.S. Turkish business has already suffered huge losses in
Libya following the NATO-led attack on that country.
Turkey’s relations with Syria seem to have soured. Damascus has not
taken kindly to Erdogan’s criticisms of its handling of the violent
protests that have erupted on its soil.
The recent exodus of Syrian refugees across the Turkish border has
caused further deterioration of the current cold relations. Turkey’s
foreign policy under Erdogan was based on the principle of “zero
problems with neighbours”. With Erdogan increasingly adopting a
critical tone towards the leadership in Damascus, good-neighbourly
relations could well become a casualty.
Relations with Iran, another neighbour, also may suffer as a
consequence. Iran is one of Syria’s staunch allies. Erdogan had
managed to build bridges with its Central Asian neighbour Armenia,
but nationalists in both countries have seen to it that the old wounds
continue to fester. Many Armenians hold the Turks responsible for the
Armenian holocaust of the early 20th century. Nationalist Turks deny
that a holocaust ever occurred.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
