THE WAR OF POST-MODERN PERIOD
Story from Lragir.am News:
Published: 20:57:12 – 08/06/2011
We asked Igor Muradyan, political scientist, to comment on possible
developments regarding the settlement of the Karabakh conflict.
Mr. Muradyan, recently the resumption of military actions between
Armenia and Azerbaijan has been suggested as possible. Experts tend
to think that the war is possible. In your opinion, what causes such
opinions, and what is expected in the conflict area in Karabakh?
I have already stated that most experts from the western societies
increasingly claim that the risk of random resumption of war is
possible. In the past few months I conducted a monitoring of opinions
and evaluations, asking questions to several dozens of experts of
Europe and the United States who are to some extent aware of the
situation and the problems in the South Caucasus in general. This
made me convinced that the vast majority of experts lack individual
opinions and evaluations of the possibility of resumption of war. The
impression is that these evaluations merely repeat the opinions of
two or three think tanks in Washington and London which imposed their
opinions on the Western expert society. As to the Russian experts,
there is a dull repetition of the opinions of the West except for
two experts who have their personal opinion on this.
I wonder what these opinions suggesting the possibility of resumption
of war are based on. I think the answer to this question is simple,
and the motives are quite clear. The great powers understand that
there is no political settlement to the Karabakh issue, and expecting a
settlement based on the so-called principles of Madrid is simply funny.
Nevertheless, some top managers of global politics want to demonstrate
or illustrate certain circumstances and realities connected with the
Karabakh problem. It may be reached through military actions, or more
exactly, a “small, controllable war” which would not affect energy
infrastructures and oil and gas mines in which 50 billion dollars
has been invested. At the same time, one is reluctant to admit to
one’s inability and it would be good to disclaim responsibility for
the resumption of war referring to the factor of contingency.
In addition, there is hope that the problem will be solved in
the result of an “unsuccessful” war on the condition of barring a
deciding and determining role of Russia in the settlement. It should
be noted that the world has already walked into the historical stage
of post-modernism, and this period requires new forms of wars which are
considered as “games”, as means of solving problems agreed beforehand.
There is a purpose to transform the Karabakh conflict and the format
of the war of the epoch of post-modernism. Being more attentive to
the events of the past two centuries, it is possible to clarify many
other examples of the wars of the post-modern epoch.
In this case, the issues of weakening the role of Turkey and
Russia in the region which together demonstrate, without active
participation of other actors, their intention to solve the given
problem and to solve the problems of the Black Sea and Caucasian
region in general. Like earlier, one can be sure that the second
war in Karabakh is impossible without the corresponding decision of
Ankara and signals to Baku. It may happen if Turkey appears in a more
imposing geopolitical blockade and isolation where global politics is
headed. But now no such decisions are expected from Turkey, despite
the radical stance of its leaders. Therefore, the interested groups
would like to eliminate the systemic factors of resumption of war in
Karabakh, which are at the same time restraining factors.
Hence, there is apparently a scenario of “random” resumption of war,
and Armenia had better accept this scenario than the plan of slow
extinction resulting from attempts of imposing capitulation on it. In
the given case, the war is not the worst thing and it is possible that
one of the top managers is right, and this is a solution of a problem,
and not only one problem. It is possible to offer those interested
in the models of post-modern wars to find literature on this issue,
if there is such.