The choice of Armenia’s foreign economic orientation between the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the European Union (EU) should be made exclusively on the basis of deep professional calculations, not on the basis of referendums and public sentiments.
Similar opinion VERELQ– said the head of the Department of Applied Sociology of Yerevan State University Arthur Atanesyancommenting on the recent public and political discussions on the question of holding a referendum on the foreign policy vector.
In recent months, the deepening problems in Armenia-Russia relations have led to the blocking of the entry of Armenian agricultural products to the Russian market and Moscow’s consistent claims that Armenia should make a final choice through a referendum whether to remain a member of the Eurasian Economic Union or to move towards EU membership and a “civilized disengagement” with Russia.
Touching on the moral and political side of the issue of the selection of the foreign minister, the expert noted that the perception of democracy in Armenia was and remains problematic from the beginning. “The influence of public opinion and attitude should not always become decisive in many issues where the people do not know and cannot know what the experts know,” Atanesyan emphasized.
According to him, the expediency of joining interstate economic unions, possible dividends and losses are complex macro-economic processes, the complete picture of which is not available even to representatives of large businesses. The expert reminds that small and medium business dominates the economic field of Armenia, and a significant part of the population is far from active economic activity in general. Therefore, he is sure that such strategic decisions require a highly professional approach.
Atanesyan also pointed out the danger of emotional-geopolitical preferences in the decision-making process, when one part of the society is more inclined towards “Europe” and the other towards “Russia”. At the same time, he made a very critical assessment of the competence of the decision-making circles. “The political elite in its composition today generally does not have exceptional professional abilities, even in-depth knowledge, and we are not talking about the availability of their professional experience in general.”
According to the sociologist, if the decisions regarding the economic vector are made based on the biased sentiments of the majority of the population and the abilities of the current elites, then the state, as a macroeconomic entity, may suffer catastrophic losses.
Referring to the current economic indicators, Atanesyan stated that according to official statistics, the economic relations with both the EU and EAEU have constantly increased and were almost equal. According to his observation, these directions have never hindered each other, even in the crisis conditions created by the Ukrainian conflict.
The expert described the opposition of the EU and EAEU markets as a wrong approach that lacks any economic justification. “It is purely a political adventure, the consequences of which the Armenian society will feel very acutely very soon,” he concluded.
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