WHO WILL RULE ARMENIA? THE ARMY WILL HAVE THE FINAL SAY
H. Hamidov
Today
61981.html
Feb 18 2010
Azerbaijan
The recipe for Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan to keep his
presidential post is to withdraw troops from the occupied territories
…
Once chief said to his subordinate: "You, of course, are a good guy,
but there is no place for good guys at our company!"
This funny story reminds me of the relationship between ex-Armenian
President Robert Kocharyan and incumbent president Sargsyan. It is
up to you to decide who is "the boss" and who is ‘the subordinate"
in this case.
Nominally, Sargsyan seems to be the boss. But in reality Kocharyan
may still remains the chief. The latter is no longer president and he
seems not to want to become president again (two presidential terms
harmed his health, which he is now vigorously treating at Moscow’s
fashionable bars and restaurants), but he is not in a hurry to leave
politics either.
We have already wrote about his frequent meetings with members of the
Iranian and Georgian governments. At these meetings, he has acted
on behalf of his government and made statements as his country’s
ex-president. Only opposition deputies who are extremely dissatisfied
with this the state of affairs outwardly react to this in Armenia.
Sargsyan’s team keeps silent or they seem to be silent. In fact,
they are edgy. They monitor, review and analyze any information
related to Kocharyan.
In fact, under such circumstances, one feels very sorry for Sargsyan.
On one hand, he faces pressure from the diaspora which adamantly
opposes the normalization of relations with Turkey. In order to
survive, he is forced to flirt with them. The Constitutional Court
decision on the Armenia-Turkey protocols can well be considered one
of the elements of this flirting.
The opposition led by Armenia’s first President Levon Ter-Petrosyan,
which enjoys significant support among voters, is also applying
pressure. It is pertinent to recall the radicals who occasionally
threaten the country’s president.
One would sympathize with Sargsyan if you add regular pressure by
Turkey and Azerbaijan, Russia and the West.
On top of it all, now he has one more headache – Kocharyan. The latter
is in no hurry to take action to regain the presidential chair, waiting
for the right moment. He has met with senior officials of other states,
irritating Sargsyan, and forcing him to stumble and make bad decisions.
Currently, Sargsyan is facing a difficult task. He must finally decide
on the ratification of the Armenian-Turkish protocols and make a
decision on Karabakh. The ratification and return of the occupied lands
will be the most sensible step, although Sargsyan will face pressure
in this case. It is possible that Kocharyan awaits exactly this.
On backdrop of this wave of discontent, he can break into the
Sargsyan’s office and overthrow him. Such a court coup does not
require people to take to streets and destroy the already miserable
window shops in supermarkets. In fact, Kocharyan will never be able to
lead the Armenian people again. He knows this very well. The Armenian
army, the higher ranks of which are held by people from Karabakh like
Sargsyan and Kocharyan, will have the final say.
Whether Sargsyan will allow to do the above-said with him is another
story. He is well aware that this scenario is quite possible and now
is trying to take countermeasures. Eight or nine ministers of the
current government are reported to be changed soon. Surely Sargsyan
will replace them with people more close to him. In parallel, he is
actively moving closer to current Defense Minister Seyran Ohanyan,
another Karabakh resident, resulting in frequent joint public actions.
However, the most important aspect to preserve Sargsyan’s presidential
post is to explain his subordinates and citizens that withdrawal
from occupied Azerbaijani territories and establishing relations
with Turkey is inevitable. He risks not to be understood and even
overthrown, but chances to keep the post is great.
Sargsyan may also pursue a policy of delaying time. Believing that in
this case he will keep his presidential chair as long as possible,
he will probably be removed in a short time because nobody likes
half-hearted mumblers. In this case, Kocharyan has more chances
to return to power after which we can bid farewell to progress
in resolving Karabakh problem and normalization of relations with
Turkey…
As a result, as paradoxical as it may sound for Sargsyan, it becomes
apparent that the only way for him to retain his post is to leave
the occupied territories and to establish normal relations with
neighboring Turkey. In doing this, he would certainly encounter
tremendous pressure, but he can stand it if he properly explains the
benefits of these steps to the Armenian people.
But I do not think that ordinary citizens need any explanation. They
certainly suffer from Armenia’s current state more than anyone else
and understand the prospects of establishing relations with neighboring
countries …