NEW STATISTICS: WHO IS THE FIRST LEBANESE LEADER?
tayyar.org
Sept 2 2009
Lebanon
The Christians’ first leader is General Michel Aoun and Berri is the
first Muslim Leader.
As-Safir Daily Published on its Wednesday edition, a new statistics
completed by "The Information International", which explored the
Lebanese opinion about who is the First Lebanese leader. The results
came as such:
1-The first Lebanese leader: 21.8% of the Lebanese respondents said
"No One" is the first Lebanese leader; If we add to them 3.5% of the
respondents who did not specify their answer and 2.1% who answered by
"We do not know", we will have more than a quarter of the Lebanese
respondents who did not identify any leader.
Meanwhile (14.1%) chose President Nabih Berri as the first leader
followed by Mr. Nasrallah and Saad Hariri who got even results (13.6%),
followed by General Aoun (13.1%).
Both President Suleiman and Samir Geagea got even results (4.8%),
Walid Jumblatt (2.6%), Amin Gemayel (1.2%) and (4.8%) did not identify
any names.
The answers according to religion sects showed that: -(47.6%) of the
Shiites respondents considered the President Nabih Berri as the first
Lebanese leader followed by Sayyed Nasrallah (34.1%).
-(43.1%) of the Sunnis respondents considered Saad Hariri as the
first Lebanese Sunni’s leader without competition.
-(29.5%) of the Maronites respondents considered General Michel Aoun as
the first Lebanese leader, in comparison to (13.6%) for Samir Geagea.
These results were compared to the results of a poll
taken in June 2008; we discerned a noticeable progress in
President Nabih Berri’s position, which in 2008 ranked in
fourth place by (10.2%), after Sayyed Nasrallah (12%),
Michel Aoun (11.3 %), and Saad al-Hariri (9.7%). Fig. 1
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2- The Sects Leaders -First Maronite Leader: 38,5% of the Lebanese
respondents said that the First Maronite Lebanese leader is General
Michel Aoun, followed by Samir Geagea (10,6%), Michel Suleiman( 5.5%,)
while ( 20.8%) of the respondents did not identify any leader. Fig. 2
According to the Maronite sect, (35.9%) of the respondents considered
the First Maronite leader is Michel Aoun, followed by Samir Geagea
(20.9%) and (4.1%) Michel Suleiman. These results were compared to
June 2008 Survey, when (35.9%) of the Maronite respondents considered
General Aoun as the First Maronite leader followed by Samir Geagea
(12.3%).
-First Orthodox Leader: 73.6 % of the Lebanese respondents said
that they don’t know who the first Orthodox Leader is, while (13.4%)
said that Michel Murr is the first Orthodox leader, followed by Najah
Wakim (with a large difference in margin 2.6%). Fig. 3 According to
the Orthodox sect, (20%) of the respondents considered Michel Murr as
the first Orthodox leader, while the poll did not show any proportion
for Mr. Najah Wakim. Compared to June 2008 Survey, Michel Murr was
also the first Orthodox leader by (18.2%).
-First Catholic Leader: 46.1% of the Lebanese respondents said
that they don’t know who the first Catholic Leader is, while (20.5%)
answered by "We don’t Know" and (16.4%) refused to answer, which means
that (83%) of the respondents don’t think there is a First Catholic
Leader while both Mr. Elias Skaff and Michel Pharaon got even results
(7.3%).
According to the Catholic sect, (22%) of the respondents considered
that Michel Pharaon is the Leader, followed by Elias Skaff
(15%). Compared to June 2008 Survey, (9.4%) of the respondents
believed that Skaff was the first Orthodox leader while it didn’t
show any significant level of support to Pharaon.
-First Armenian Leader: 18.4% of the Lebanese considered that the MP
Hagop Pakradounian is the first Armenian Leader followed by Hovik
Mekhitarian, the Tashnak Secretary-General (4.5%) while (40.8%)
did not identify any leader.
According to the Armenian Sect, half of the respondents (48%)
considered that Hovik Mekhitarian is the first Armenian Leader followed
by Hagop Pakradounian (18.2%).
Compared to June 2008 Survey, (11.8%) considered Hagop Pakradounian
as the first Armenian Leader while it didn’t show any significant
support to Mr. Hovik Mekhitarian.
-First Sunni Leader: 61.3% of the Lebanese respondents considered Saad
Hariri as the first Sunni leader, followed by President Salim el-
Hoss (7.6%) and President Omar Karameh (2.1%) and President Najib
Mikati (1.2%). Fig. 4 According to the Sunni Sect, (71.5%) of the
respondents considered Saad Hariri the first Sunni leader, followed
by President el Hoss (2.9%). Compared to June 2008 Survey, (38.6%)
of the respondents considered Hariri the first Leader, followed by
Hoss (9.5%), Omar Karami (5.6%) and (1.6%) to Mikati. The 2009 Survey
showed a great progress for Saad Hariri.
-First Shiite Leader: 48.3% of the Lebanese respondents considered
that Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is the first Shiite leader, followed
by Speaker Nabih Berri (30.5%). Fig. 5 According to the Shiite Sect,
(30.7%) of the respondents considered that Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is
the first Shiite leader while President Nabih Berri ranked first by
(62.9%). A big progress for the Speaker Berri in comparison to the
2008 Survey, because the majority of the respondents combined both
politics and religion figures when it comes to Sayyed Nasrallah,
which led to a confusion in the 2009 poll.
It is to be noted that in June 2008 Survey, Sayyed Nasrallah was
considered the first Shiite leader by (41.1%) followed by President
Berri by (19.2%).
-First Druze Leader: 45.8% of the Lebanese respondents considered PSP
Walid Jumblatt the first Druze leader, followed by MP Talal Arslan
(11.2%) then former minister Wiaam Wahab (10.6%).
According to the Druze Sect, (82.1%) of the respondents considered
PSP Walid Jumblatt the first Druze leader, followed by Arslan (3.6%)
and Wahab (1.8%).
Compared to June 2008 Survey, (34.3%) considered PSP Walid Jumblatt
the first Druze leader, Arslan (15.5%) and Wahab (5.3%).
The majority of Lebanese believe that no one deserves the title of
the first Lebanese leader, or that no one is the first leader.
The poll was conducted within the City of the Greater Beirut, between
August 11 and 15, 2009. It included a sample of 995 voters from all
of Lebanon, dispersed according to Sects, Sex, and Age.
According to sects: Maronite 22.1%, Orthodox 7.5%, Catholics 5%,
Armenian Orthodox and Armenian Catholics 3.3%, Sunni 27.5%, Shiite
28.6%, Druze 5.6% and 2.2 % Christian minorities.
According to the Sex: 66.3% male and 33.7% female.
According to the age groups: -8.9% were between the ages of 21-24.
-20.5% were between the ages of 25-34.
-2.7% were between the ages of 35-44.
-21.4% were between the ages of 45-54.
-12.2% were between the ages of 55-64.
– 7.2% were 65 years old and above.