REALITY HITS OBAMA EXPRESS
By Mike Allen
Politico.com
tories/0409/20977.html
April 7 2009
President Barack Obama, after a lightning-quick start for his agenda
on Capitol Hill, is bracing for a much slower pace and big changes
in his proposals as early urgency and excitement give way to the more
languid rhythms that are the norm for Congress.
Officials are most pessimistic about his energy and global warming
plan, with many aides doubting he will win passage of a cap-and-trade
emissions reduction system, which is strongly opposed by business
and Republicans.
The White House is most optimistic for passage this year of his plans
to overhaul the nation’s financial regulations, and aides also see
a strong chance that a gradual version of his health care overhaul
will get through Congress this fall.
Congressional and administration aides agree that none of his three
biggest agenda items is likely to achieve final passage before
this fall.
The officials said none of this is catching them by surprise: Obama
knew Congress has limited bandwidth, and he simply wanted to get
the wheels of government turning on every big issue this year. A big
part of their communication strategy will now focus on highlighting
incremental progress on the Obama agenda, to show people Washington
is working again.
The White House’s handicapping for three centerpiece proposals:
Financial-services reform has "a very good chance." Health care "has
a lot of momentum behind it." And energy "got off to a great start"
with the introduction last week of a model bill by House Energy and
Commerce Committee Chairman Henry A. Waxman (D-Calif.).
That’s a best-case scenario. Obama aides admit they don’t yet know
the answer to one of the big questions of his first year: Can Capitol
Hill swallow an agenda of this cost and heft, at a time when the
country is suffering a catastrophic economic slowdown?
"There’s no question: It’s a lot," said one administration
official. "But he’s made the point that you’ve got to at least try
to do this — and do as much as you can, now — because it’s all
interrelated and all helps the economy."
The new pace is a big change. Obama had signed twice as many bills as
his two most recent predecessors by the time he addressed Congress for
the first time, with progress being greased by his huge popularity, the
large Democratic majorities and the impetus of a crushing recession.
"I felt like we were at the hoop every day," said a top White House
official.
Now Congress will begin tackling his legislation with the usual glacial
work of subcommittees and committees, trying to solve three supremely
complex policy puzzles all at once.
The administration’s new realism is reflected in aides’ assessment of
the budgets passed by the House and Senate, which did not specifically
embrace some Obama priorities but left room to maneuver.
"It makes it possible to do things," a West Wing official said. "It
doesn’t mean we’ll get it. But we’re in the game."
Administration officials are very anxious to continue showing progress,
since Obama was elected to bring change. So they now plan to focus
on incremental victories, calling attention to committee action
on health care and energy so that the public can see the wheels of
government turning –real change at a time when so many Americans
are disillusioned by gridlock.
The White House also will trumpet smaller bills like a reform of the
government procurement process.
Obama is likely to hold major signing ceremonies for more modest
measures such as ones governing national service and tobacco. They’re
not the whole enchilada. But the White House views them as an
encouraging appetizer.
And House Democrats plan to mix in several measures to protect
consumers, including limitations on pay-day lenders and more
protections for credit cardholders.
Congressional officials say the legislative grind will help "buy
time" for the economy to recover, before the public loses patience
with Obama.
"You need credibility with the public that we get it, and we do:
It’s going to take some time," one official said. "Even though we
think that the stuff we have passed and put in place is going to work,
it’s not going to work right away, and the jobs are not going to come
back right away. That’s just the reality."
Obama officials realize that reform of the nation’s regulation of
banks and other financial institutions — the measure most certain
to pass — isn’t a particularly sexy accomplishment.
But Democrats will style it as "looking out for the consumer and
helping the little guy," one aide said. "We have to put some rules
in the road on these financial companies and try to help the middle
class and the consumers."
On health care, Obama aides are cheered by the plan in the House to
have three committees produce one bill, a more streamlined process
than was used under President Bill Clinton in 1993, when the process
famously flamed out.
So here’s the administration’s dream timetable: By the August recess,
House and Senate committees will have sent health care bills to
the floor and Waxman’s House committee will have reported out a
comprehensive energy bill.
Officials are just aiming for "substantial progress" on financial
regulations.
"I don’t know if that gets off the House and Senate floor by August,"
an aide said. "But it’ll be done this year. I just don’t know that
everything can be done in those 13 [legislative work] weeks."
One of Obama’s top aides projected the coolness that his boss was
famous for on the campaign trail.
"I try not to get optimistic or pessimistic," the official said. "I
just try to look at it as: Are we making progress? And I just
continually see progress."
After a couple of death-defying months, "no-drama Obama" tackles the
Capitol Hill slog.