RUSSIA MAY FOCUS ON PRO-U.S. UKRAINE AFTER GEORGIA
By Henry Meyer, [email protected]
Bloomberg
Aug 13, 2008
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) — Now that Russia has humiliated Georgia with a
punishing military offensive, it may shift its attention to reining in
pro-Western Ukraine, another American ally in the former Soviet Union.
Moving to counter any threat, Ukraine President Viktor Yushchenko
today restricted the movement of Russia’s Black Sea fleet, based in
the port of Sevastopol, citing national security.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s
first order of business in confronting Ukraine likely will be to try
to thwart its bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
"The Moscow authorities will use this opportunity to remind Ukraine
of the damages of allying itself with NATO," said Geoffrey Smith at
Renaissance Capital investment bank in Kiev.
The U.S. has long seen Georgia and Ukraine as counterweights to
Russia’s influence in the region. Opposition leaders in the two
countries came to power after U.S.-backed popular protests in 2003
and 2004. Their ascension advanced an American strategy of expanding
NATO to include both countries and securing energy routes from the
Caspian Sea that bypass Russia. The BP Plc-led Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
oil pipeline to Turkey runs through Georgia.
Policy in Doubt
The future effectiveness of that policy is now in doubt, with
Georgia’s U.S.-educated president, Mikheil Saakashvili, 40, weakened
by a five-day blitz that his American patrons were powerless to halt.
Medvedev, 42, and Putin, 56, say Russia began the offensive in response
to a drive by Georgia to restore control over the breakaway region
of South Ossetia. Now Russia has ousted Georgian forces from there
and from Abkhazia, another separatist region, and destroyed much of
the central government’s military.
"Georgia will be enormously more careful in its actions in the future,
and much less confident of its relationship with the United States,"
U.S.-based geopolitical advisory group Stratfor said in a research
note.
NATO is scheduled in December to review the two countries’ bids to
join the Western military alliance. NATO leaders in April promised
Ukraine and Georgia eventual membership while declining them
fast-track status. Russia, which has also denounced U.S. plans to
station missile defense sites in former Soviet satellites Poland and
the Czech Republic, says the expansion of the Cold War-era alliance
to its borders is a security threat.
`Similar Fate’
NATO should affirm the potential of Georgia and Ukraine to become
alliance members in the face of Russia’s incursion into Georgia,
senior U.S. officials said yesterday in Washington.
"Russia may find it convenient to raise the level of tension with
Ukraine in the run-up to the December NATO review," Citigroup
Inc.’s London-based David Lubin and Ali Al- Eyd wrote in a note to
clients. "If the conflict with Russia decelerates or reverses Georgia’s
integration with the West, a similar fate could also affect Ukraine."
Ukraine, a country of 46 million people that’s almost as big as
France, has a large Russian-speaking population in the south and east
that opposes NATO entry and looks to Moscow. Russian officials warn
that if Yushchenko pushes Ukraine into NATO, the nation may split in
two. Russia has made its displeasure with Ukraine clear, cutting off
gas supplies to the country 2 1/2 years ago and reducing deliveries
last March.
Show of Solidarity
Yushchenko, 54, yesterday flew to the Georgian capital Tbilisi to show
solidarity with Saakashvili along with the leaders of four ex-Communist
eastern European nations that joined NATO as a bulwark against Russia.
Today, he cited national security needs when he insisted Russia’s Black
Sea fleet coordinate its movements with Ukranian authorities. Russia
has leased the port since 1991, and ships from there took part in
hostilities against Georgia.
"The previous liberalized regime for Russian fleet movements gave
the opportunity for Russia to cross Ukrainian state borders and to
move across the Ukrainian part of the Black Sea without any control,"
Yushchenko said in a decree, published on his Web site.
The military operation in Georgia will serve "as a warning" to
Ukraine that it should desist from petitioning for NATO entry,
said Janusz Bugajski, director of the New European Democracies
Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington. "Otherwise, Moscow may intervene to protect the allegedly
threatened interests of the Russian population."
Russian Criticism
Russian Emergency Minister Sergei Shoigu today rounded on Ukraine
for its public support of Georgia in the conflict.
"One week before these events, we send a column of humanitarian aid to
Ukraine to help flood victims and the next we find they’re offering
military aid, arms for the destruction of civilians," Shoigu told
reporters in Moscow.
Germany and France opposed NATO entry for Georgia, a country of
4.6 million people that is almost as big as the U.S. state of South
Carolina, and Ukraine because of the Georgian separatist disputes and
opposition to membership among some Ukrainians. They now will feel
their concerns have been justified, said Cliff Kupchan of New-York
based Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting firm.
"Considering both European reticence and possible fears about Ukraine,
I think it is very much on the slow track," he said, referring to
NATO membership for both states.
Military Damage
The assault by Russian artillery, tanks and bombers inflicted
significant damage on Georgia’s armed forces, which last month
increased their size to 37,000 soldiers. Russia’s military has 1.13
million personnel. The U.S.
trained and equipped Georgia’s military and in 2006 approved almost
$300 million in aid over five years.
Ukraine has about 214,000 soldiers, which include 84,000 paramilitary
troops, according to the London-based International Institute for
Strategic Studies.
"A substantial part of our military power has been destroyed," said
Georgian National Security Council chief Kakha Lomaia. "However,
we did preserve the core of our army, and have managed to regroup it
close to the capital."
An airbase in Senaki was destroyed and three Georgian ships were
blown up in the Black Sea port of Poti, he said.
A month ago, about 1,000 U.S. soldiers joined 600 Georgians and 100
from Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Armenia in joint exercises at the Vaziani
military base near Tbilisi. Russia repeatedly bombed the base during
this month’s war.
Dominant Role
"The American role in the region has been weakened," Jan Techau,
a European and security affairs analyst at the German Council on
Foreign Relations in Berlin, said in a telephone interview. "It’s a
reassertion of Russia’s dominant role in the region."
Ian Hague, a Bank of Georgia board member and fund manager with
$1.8 billion in the former Soviet Union, said the attack on Georgia
discouraged Western investments in energy infrastructure by raising
the risk premium.
"It’s somewhat reminiscent, in 1939, when Stalin attacked Finland,"
former U.S. national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski told
Bloomberg Television. "I think this kind of confrontation is the best
kind of answer as to why they are seeking to be members of NATO."