BAKU: Executive Director Of The American Jewish Committee: "We Inten

EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE AMERICAN JEWISH COMMITTEE: "WE INTEND TO EXTEND COOPERATION WITH AZERBAIJANI DIASPORA"

Azeri Press Agency
Aug 18 2008
Azerbaijan

Baku. Lachin Sultanova-APA. APA interview with Executive Director of
the American Jewish Committee David Allen Harris during his recent
visit to Azerbaijan

-What impression did you have about Baku and Azerbaijan during
your visit?

-It is my first visit to Azerbaijan. I visited on President Ilham
Aliyev’s invitation. I met Azerbaijani President at the Davos Energy
Summit in Switzerland in January and received invitation there. I
saw kindness and rapid economic development in Azerbaijan, which
encourage me to be optimist about Azerbaijan’s future.

-Did you meet with Jewish people residing in Azerbaijan?

-I met with Azerbaijani officials and leaders of Muslim, Orthodox,
Catholic and Jewish communities as well. It was interesting that the
leaders of two Jewish communities – upland and ashkinazi – participated
at the meeting. They said that they lived here comfortably and had
no problems. Religious tolerance in Azerbaijan is a model for entire
world. I would like to especially emphasize that it is very important
for our world now.

-Is the Committee you lead working with the Jewish communities in
Azerbaijan and assisting them financially?

-We are working not only with the Jewish communities, but other
religious communities I mentioned and we have very good relations
with them. Our cooperation covers political and diplomatic spheres,
but financial assistance is not our job. Other Jewish organizations
are doing it.

-Are you cooperating with the Azerbaijani Diaspora in USA?

– We are cooperating with Azerbaijani Diaspora and intending
to extend this cooperation. It is within the interests of both
sides. An important part of Azerbaijani Diaspora is the Jewish people
migrated from Azerbaijan. They play a role of bridge between the
two communities.

-Mass grave site was found in Guba, compactly settled by the
Jews. According to some reports, there are Jews among those who were
buried there. How can your Committee help the research work done in
the grave site?

-It is very important to investigate what happened in the history. But
we are engaged in politics and diplomacy. Though this is not our
sphere, we can support this process to some extent. Unfortunately,
Jews were killed in most places of the world. Though over 60 years
passed, new names are being included into the list of the Jews killed
during World War II.

-What is your opinion of the discussion of the so-called Armenian
genocide in Israeli parliament?

-I have no information about it. I would be very much surprised, if
you said it was initiated by Israeli government. I will visit Israel
next month, I will concern myself with this issue during my visit. I
think that the most proper approach is that the Turkish and Armenians
should discuss and analyze these events around the table and come to
the conclusion.

-How do you assess the recent developments in Georgia? Do they have
impact on Azerbaijan? Will it irritate Russia, if Georgia becomes
member of NATO?

-The region is witnessing historic event amid happenings in
Georgia. Discussions on the membership of Georgia and Ukraine
slowed down after Bucharest summit of NATO, but have become urgent
now. There is election campaign in the US, discussions on this theme
will intensify. It will be discussed on the highest level whether
Russia will annex North Ossetia and Abkhazia, Georgia will enter
NATO without these territories and whether NATO will accept Georgia
without these territories. The recent happenings are important not
only for Georgia, but also the whole region, Azerbaijan and its
territorial integrity. Azerbaijan is located in the hardest region,
it has such neighbors like Iran and Russia. America’s position on
these happenings is very important for Azerbaijan. The happenings in
Iran also are of great importance of Azerbaijan. Election campaign
in the US makes the situation more complicated, because few decisions
are made during the elections.

Kristall To Supply 6,000-7,000 Carats Of Rough Diamonds To Armenian

KRISTALL TO SUPPLY 6,000-7,000 CARATS OF ROUGH DIAMONDS TO ARMENIAN CUTTER

Tacy
Aug 18 2008
Israel

Kristall of Smolensk, Russia’s largest cut diamond producer,
will supply 6,000-7,000 carats of rough diamonds to Armenia by
the end of this year to be cut and polished, says Gagik Kocharian,
Head of Trade Policy and Domestic Market Regulation at the Armenian
Economics Ministry, referring to a deal signed with Diamond Company
of Armenia (DCA). The first consignment consists of 650 carats of
diamonds. Kocharian expects the new agreement to help revive the
Armenian jewelry industry.

Armenia has not received rough diamonds from Russia in recent years
due to the liberalization of rough diamond prices. Armenia used to
receive up to 6,000 carats under an annual quota agreed by the two
countries’ governments.

Kristall, whose turnover increased 13 percent to US$404 million last
year, agreed at the start of this year to have diamonds which cannot
be cut and polished economically in Russia processed by Armenian
cutting plants.

BAKU: Holtz: Washington’s Reaction To Events In South Ossetia Was No

THOMAS HOLTZ: "WASHINGTON’S REACTION TO EVENTS IN SOUTH OSSETIA WAS NOT JUST LATE. IT SHOWED THAT THE UNITED STATES WILL NOT INITIATE THE THIRD WORLD WAR FOR GEORGIA"

Today.Az
olitics/47018.html
Aug 18 2008
Azerbaijan

Day.Az interview with Thomas Holtz, University Montana professor and
famous US journalist.

– You are now is Georgia. What do you think of the developments around
South Ossetia, as a specialist on the Caucasus?

– This is a real disaster for Georgia, for the region and the whole
world. I would like to note that Russia carried it actions not only
in South Ossetia. I think, it was a trap, while the real "fish" was
Abkhazia, as well as Georgia’s reorientation (and thus, Azerbaijan’s)
from West to North, that is to Russia.

– Most people call the developments as the action, the Kremlin had
planned in advance. Why does it happen now?

– As I have mentioned above, Russia’s intention was to use
"humanitarian interference" with South Ossetia as a cause for greater
reorientation of the regional powers and for sending a clear message
to idiots in Washington that days of Russia’s maltreating have come
to an end.

You ask why does it happen now? It is comfortable and it is possible to
state that an agreement on the missile shield with Poland has become
the last drop following the developments in Kosovo, US campaign in
Iraq, NATO expansion and so on.

– Do you agree that Washington’s reaction to the events was late and
too soft?

– Along with being late, the main issue is that Russia’s actions
revealed a simple fact: the United States did not react at all, except
for the threat of the third world war for Georgia, which the United
States was not going to hold, regardless of Georgia’s expectations.

– But events revealed that Russia’s actions affected US interests
as well. BTC pipeline, which is of strategic concern for the United
States, was attacked by Russia. Can the United States further join
provision of security of regional energy projects?

– This is a good question, which concerns most people in Washington
at the present time. It is frustrating as it brings economic problems
above humanitarian once. If oil is really more important than the
principles, then, I am sure that those who wish to ensure the oil flow
by any means, will create conditions for it to happen, regardless of
who rules Tbilisi now.

– Will the events in Georgia influence its accession to NATO?

– The idea that Georgia may now join NATO is completely
insane. Perhaps, it has always been insane, which is also a part of
the tragedy: fantasy has won over the reality and ordinary people
have to pay for it.

– Can Georgian events influence Azerbaijan and the resolution of
Nagorno Karabakh conflict?

– I would have prefered not to answer this question but still I will
answer. Certainly, there is an interconnection between the conflicts
in Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia and Nagorno Karabakh conflict
in Georgia. The lesson is that the winner will need to get Russia’s
support.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

http://www.today.az/news/p

BAKU: West Is Able To Wait, Or About Nervousness Among Dashnaks

WEST IS ABLE TO WAIT, OR ABOUT NERVOUSNESS AMONG DASHNAKS

Today.Az
cs/47024.html
Aug 18 2008
Azerbaijan

The Bureau of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation "Dashnaktsutun"
has recently made a statement, calling the government of their country
to raise the issue of signing a legal document on non-application of
military force against Nagorno Karabakh.

"Armenian side should protect its national and state interests in the
negotiation process more clearly and demand from the parties to sign
a document on non-application of force", says the statement.

The party noted that one of the main tasks for Armenia is the issue
of ratification of the right of "Nagorno Karabakh people to determine
their fate independently". The announcement also says that the recent
events around South Ossetia showed that "Azerbaijan’s attempt to
settle the issue by force does not only lack prospects but can lead
to unpredictable disasters in the region". At the same time, the
party bureau also considered the security of the Armenian-settled
Samtse-Javakheti region of Georgia, which it regards as the issue of
"ensuring rights of national minorities and autonomy".

First of all, it should be noted that Samtse-Javakheti is not an
autonomy and the desired should not set up for the reality in such hard
days for Georgia. Second, we hope that there will not be an autonomy in
that region, especially considered the frustrating historical lesson of
how Armenians abuse the autonomy, offered to them, and demand more in
the future. To those, who doubt, we recommend to visit the website of
Samtse-Javakheti Armenians and pay attention to the tone of articles,
published there.

Speaking on the "legally binding document" on the non-application
of force, it is unclear, with whom Azerbaijan should sign it. With
Nagorno Karabakh powers?

Well, but Nagorno Karabakh is not a subject of international law and
UN Secretary General Pan Gui Mun will be surprised if he receives
a document, signed by the "president" of a state, he does not have
an idea of. Moreover, Nizami Bahmanov has nothing to worry about –
Azerbaijan does not intend to attack his people.

Perhaps, with Armenia? It is even more interesting. How can one sign
a treaty on non-application of force with a state, which invaded
its territory and does not even think to leave it? Let Armenia first
withdraw its troops and then Azerbaijan will sign a treaty with it
on mutual respect of sovereignty and non-application of force.

Well, whom should we sign the document with?

It seems that following the diplomatic disgrace and international
isolation, which Russia deserved owing to its clumsy policy in such a
vulnerable region as the Caucasus, Moscow’s footmen started to search
a new place on the map of the world, in order to be too close to the
disgraced Russia, on the one hand, and not to lose their unpopular
idiot dreams of expanding their territories by means of their
neighbors and by violating the principle of territorial integrity,
on the other hand. The events of the past week showed that few have
not voiced the phrase "respect for territorial integrity" at least
once through those days.

In this connection, the nervousness among Dashnaks is quite
understandable. They try to conceal the unpopular thesis and
even the term of the national right for self-determination is
unexpectedly replaced with the abstract "right to determine one’s
fate independently". At the same time, Dashnaks does not even recall
(and do not dare to challenge) the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan,
in order to escape the possible criticism by the world society.

This week the whole world confirmed the supremacy of the territorial
integrity! And any references to the whims of national minorities,
residing in any territories, their having passports of other states
and other arguments are not a legal ground for their separation
from the state with the territory they reside in. According to
famous analyst from German Marshall’s foundation Yorg Himmelreich,
"Russia’s attack was a rude violation of the territorial sovereignty
of Georgia and no Russian passports of Abkhaz and Ossetians can be a
legal ground for such actions". In his article in Spiegel newspaper,
another German analyst Christian Haif informs of the consequences,
threatening to the most capricious "rebelling" peoples, who do not
want to hear anything about the territorial integrity. In particular,
his vision of the resolution of the conflicts in Georgia lies in the
resettlement of the Ossetians from Tkhinvali region to Russia and
possible provision of an autonomy to Abkhazs within Georgia.

If the authors of the announcement of Dashnaktsutun’s bureau do not
want their Karabakh relatives to share the same fate, which was, by
the way, successfully probed in the Sudet oblast of Czechoslovakia,
Krain province of Croatia and other places, instead of releasing
such absurd statements, they should persuade their compatriots to
stop hindering the process and accept what the world will oblige
Moscow and its fifth columns in Georgia to accept (this also refers
to Transdniestria and Nagorno Karabakh). They will not be able to go
beyond an autonomy within Georgia (at the best).

When the world said clearly that the Kosovo model will not be applied
anywhere else, Armenians hoped that it was a joke. That is why, they
deprived themselves of an oil pipeline, a gas pipeline and a railroad
and many other things for they Moscow’s support. But at present Moscow
does not know what to do with itself from disgrace. World’s position
will never change, whatever Armenian diaspora does. The train has
gone, bye-bye.

And Russia’s stubbornness will not rescue Ossetian and Abkhazs from
returning back to Georgia. Whatever Russia does, West will have
to wait until the government in Russia is replaced (either through
another orange revolution or evolutionary), for the new pro-western
Russian government to surrender its "dear" citizens, like Western
Germany was once surrendered. West is able to wait.

And we will also wait for this moment to come.

http://www.today.az/news/politi

Women’s Boxing Suggested To Be Included In London Olympic Games

WOMEN’S BOXING SUGGESTED TO BE INCLUDED IN LONDON OLYMPIC GAMES

People’s Daily Online
Aug 19 2008
China

The International Boxing Association (AIBA) announced Monday their
support for including women’s boxing in the 2012 Olympic Games,
saying they will submit a proposal to the International Olympic
Committee in near future.

The association made the announcement after an AIBA Extraordinary
Committee meeting, at which the host of the 2009 Junior World
Championships was selected to be Yerevan, capital of Armenia, and
new boxing rules were approved.

The AIBA has long wanted to include women’s boxing in the Olympiad
in a bid to promote the sport. It said to submit a proposal to IOC
"in the coming months".

Under the new boxing rules, four rounds of two minutes are changed
into three of three minutes starting the beginning of next year,
while weight categories for women and youth girls are aligned more
closely with men to feature 11 categories.

ANKARA: Turkey’s ‘Caucasus Alliance’ Proposal: How Likely Is Its Suc

TURKEY’S ‘CAUCASUS ALLIANCE’ PROPOSAL: HOW LIKELY IS ITS SUCCESS? (1)
By Guner Ozkan

Today’s Zaman
Aug 19 2008
Turkey

Amid desperate EU attempts and increasingly tough words from the US
to Moscow for an immediate cease-fire and the withdrawal of Russian
forces in the war between Russia and Georgia, Turkey has suggested
the establishment of the "Caucasus Alliance."

Turkey is surely acting in good faith, as it has, with some
reservations, good economic, political and social relationships with
both Moscow and Tbilisi; it seeks a durable peace on its doorstep. So
what does the Turkish proposal include? How likely is its success in
a region as complex as the Caucasus, and why?

Goals and means of the ‘alliance’

Though still in the process of creation, after prompt visits to Moscow
and Tbilisi Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan outlined the
purpose and content of the Caucasus Alliance. Its main objective is
to establish permanent peace and security in the region by bringing
all regional states together in a joint formation. To this end,
it envisages a structure in which regional states are expected
once again to reassure each other of respect of state sovereignty,
restraint from the use and threat of force, the inviolability of
state borders and non-harmful economic and energy security in their
common space of the Caucasus. Principles such as state sovereignty,
inviolability of borders and so on in the formation will take their
main references from the charter of the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), of which Russia, Turkey and all other
Caucasian states are members.

Erdogan is seeing that the establishment of lasting peace and security
is the principal aim here, and he believes that this goal can be
achieved through the increase of economic cooperation among regional
states. In order to better present this idea, he gave the examples
of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC), Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) and
Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) projects as economic ventures contributing
significantly to regional peace and security. He pointed out the
necessity to develop more such projects and to expand them in such
a way that would connect all peoples in the Caucasus.

Russia and Georgia appear to have accepted the new formation in
principle, and the foreign ministries of the three states are going to
work on the details, as Turkey gets ready to offer the plan first to
Azerbaijan and Armenia and then to the EU for their participation. The
Turkish side is particularly hopeful that the Caucasus Alliance in
the offing will resolve the other most important regional security
issue, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Baku and Yerevan, once
and for all.

Interdependence as security solution

In fact, the proposal Turkey is now presenting is a method that
has been discussed in international relations security studies for
years, mainly between liberal and realist security thinkers. Turkey’s
suggestion of an "alliance" for the Caucasus takes its logical base
from liberal views on security solutions that have developed primarily
as responses to those of the state-centric realist perspectives in
interstate relations.

Of others, neo-liberal institutionalists principally suggest that there
are various diverse and important actors in domestic and international
levels, which function outside the strict control of governments.

Intergovernmental organizations as well as private ones, with their
diverse agendas, can and do influence governments’ decisions, pushing
them to cooperate among themselves further and thereby allowing states
to get over a number of inter and intrastate disputes. Basically, the
liberal school suggests that the presence of complex interdependence
among societies and states allows multiple channels to open
between those actors in their trans-governmental and transnational
relations. This "complex web of linkages" between formal and informal
actors deals with a myriad of issues in which the military security
and/or survival of the state prioritized by the realists is not
supposed to take top priority. Rather, it is assumed that if or when
states manage to construct a complex interdependence among themselves,
such as improved trade relations and joint economic projects in a
particular region, the risk of the use of military force will be,
to a large extent, avoided.

Realist perspectives on security, on the other hand, do not share
much of those liberal views on security. For them, though complex
interdependence is a source of cooperation and an important method
for problem solving, or at least decreasing the tension among states,
the same sources are the scarce commodities for which individuals
and states often strive for control, paving the way for inter and
intrastate military conflicts. Indeed, realists argue that states
always seek to maximize their power in line with their national
interests in economic, military and security issues and minimize the
risks in the same matters. Realists see that complex interdependence
can only work so long as all parties are satisfied, and yet this is
often impossible to succeed in and hard to sustain. So interdependence
resembles no more than a fierce competition for power and domination
over scarce resources. As continuous rivalry over scarce resources
is a never-ending phenomenon, conflict cannot always be avoided. In
this never-ending state of rivalry, intergovernmental organizations,
for the realists, are no more than instruments in the hands of states
to promote their national/security interests.

*Assistant Professor Guner Ozkan is a Caucasus expert at the
Ankara-based International Strategic Research Organization (ISRO-USAK)
and a lecturer at Mugla University.

ANKARA: Hundreds Employed To Spy For Ergenekon

HUNDREDS EMPLOYED TO SPY FOR ERGENEKON

Today’s Zaman
Aug 19 2008
Turkey

Ergenekon, an illegal organization dating back decades that is
suspected of attacks and assassinations to trigger a coup d’état
in Turkey, apparently employed ordinary people, from housewives to
students, to work as intelligence-gatherers for the group.

The extent of the intelligence network was such that Ergenekon had
a spy "on every single street," in the words of Ergenekon suspect
Erkut Ersoy.

Ersoy is the founder of an organization called the Special Bureau
Intelligence Group. This group worked for Ergenekon suspect
retired Col. Fikri Karadag, who is also the head of a shady civil
society group called the Kuvvayi Milliye Dernegi (National Forces
Association). Ersoy, who faces charges of "membership in an armed
terrorist organization" and "recording personal data illegally,"
in his testimony to the police in January of this year following
his detention said his intelligence bureau was only a mailing group,
restricted to 1,100 people.

He said he had experienced a psychological disturbance in 2002 and told
police his dream was to work for the National Intelligence Organization
(MİT). However, recordings of phone conversations and other evidence
refute everything Ersoy says in an attempt to portray himself as a
mentally unstable dreamer.

The indictment, based on Ersoy’s conversations on tapped lines, states
that the intelligence bureau was set up to collect intelligence laid
out in another Ergenekon planning document, titled "Lobby." Finding
new recruits and using the Internet as a propaganda tool to trigger a
coup against the government in power were also among the group’s tasks.

Housewives, students, anyone

His earlier statements also support the phone conversation
transcripts. In an interview with the press much earlier, Ersoy said
that 756 people from a variety of fields, ranging from students,
doctors and housewives to lawyers, worked with the bureau. Ersoy
said his organization was similar to the "White Forces," a special
unit made up of civilian staff under the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK)
Special War Department. Ersoy also claimed the group had people from
the Turkish General Staff, MİT and police officers among its staff. He
stated that they reported suspicious individuals or vehicles to the
relevant authorities.

According to Ersoy’s own description of this rather strange company,
he set up the Special Bureau Intelligence Group to solve problems
his acquaintances from various official intelligence units would
frequently talk about. "We said that if there is such a demand,
we should have it [this organization]. This is how we set up the
group in İstanbul." Bureau agents say they fight every terrorist
organization, particularly the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), and
against Armenian genocide allegations, the indictment says.

This unique structure is, according to Ersoy, not an alternative to
the state’s own sources of intelligence. "We are not rivals to them,
nor do we desire to take on their duties. We are only supporting the
state’s security institutions. We help them to complete certain things
faster and get results. Some people are afraid to apply directly to
the police for their own reasons. We act as intermediaries. Soon we
will set up a [telephone] line to report crimes. All our work is done
with the knowledge of the state’s own intelligence agencies. They
protect us. We wouldn’t have been able to do this otherwise."

Ersoy also said their bureau was open to anyone who wanted to
be recruited, as long as they were patriotic or sympathetic to
nationalists. "We are a nationalist group, at the end of the day,"
he had said.

–Boundary_(ID_002yMbxWgbvr64RTAwHroQ)–

BP Suspends Azeri Oil Shipments Via Rail To Georgia

BP SUSPENDS AZERI OIL SHIPMENTS VIA RAIL TO GEORGIA
Eric Watkins

PennEnergy
Aug 18 2008
TX

LOS ANGELES, Aug. 18 — BP PLC has been forced to suspend shipments
of 50,000-70,000 b/d of oil from Azerbaijan to Georgia following the
destruction of a key railroad bridge, severing the main east-west
train link between the two countries.

"Rail exports have stopped from Azerbaijan to Georgia," said BP
spokesman Robert Wine, adding, "There’s been some damage along the
line in Georgia."

Destruction of the rail link, regardless of the cause, reduced
BP’s three possible oil export routes to just one route: via the
Russian-dominated 100,000 b/d line extending from Baku to Russia’s
Black Sea port of Novorossiisk.

Georgian officials accused Russian troops of blowing up the railway
bridge, but Russian officials denied any involvement in the explosion,
which collapsed a 45-m section of the 220-m bridge.

The railway line extends from Tbilisi, through the Georgian town of
Gori, before splitting into three offshoots that extend to the Black
Sea ports of Poti and Batumi and southwest to a point just short of
the Turkish border.

Repairs should be swift Destruction of the line, which BP said can
carry 50,000-70,000 b/d of Azeri oil to the port of Batumi, means
at least a temporary disruption of supplies sent to Georgia’s Black
Sea terminals.

But a shipping agent in the port of Batumi said exports of Azeri oil
from the port are unlikely to be delayed by damage to the railway line,
saying there was just one tanker in port which could be loaded with
oil already on hand.

By the time a new tanker arrives to be loaded, he said, the railway
bridge will be repaired and the railway line will receive railcars
with additional cargo from Azerbaijan.

A spokesperson for Georgian Railways estimated that the key rail
bridge would be rebuilt within a week or sooner. She said engineers,
workers, and materials have arrived from Armenia and Azerbaijan and
works on the bridge are already under way.

The spokesperson said reconstruction of the bridge is the only viable
option for restoring railway traffic, as a nearby alternative bridge,
which has been out of use for about 20 years, cannot be reopened.

The stoppage further limits BP’s options in taking oil from the
Caspian after a fire caused the shutdown of its 1 million b/d capacity
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) link to Turkey and hostilities in Georgia
forced closure of the British firm’s 150,000 b/d Western Route Export
Pipeline (WREP) for security reasons.

BP’s only other export alternative currently, the Baku-Novorossiisk
line, leaves the British company with an "unattractive option,"
according to analysts, as it requires the mixing of Azeri oil with
lower-quality Russian Urals crude.

Due to the hostilities in Georgia, however, it remains to be seen
how soon BP will be able to lift its shutdown of the WREP, while no
definite date has been given for the completion of repairs on the
BTC line.

BTC line repairs slow Repairs to the BTC line in Turkey began over
the weekend, but a spokesman for Botas International Ltd., which
operates the Turkish sector of the line, said, "It’s a step-by-step
processâ~@¦. We don’t know just yet how long it will take."

Turkey’s energy minister Hilmi Guler said Aug. 18 that oil transport
along the BTC might resume "in a few days" as repairs on the line
were under way, but that view was not shared by BP spokesman Murat
Lecompte, who said it is too early to say when the pipeline could be
operational again.

Because of the disruption to its export routes, the BP-led
Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli oil fields in the Caspian have cut production
to about 250,000 b/d from about 800,000 b/d.

Of more concern, however, closure of the export routes has raised
worries of Russia attempting to reassert its control over the region,
as took place in the Soviet era. In Georgia, that would mean Russian
control of the existing pipelines, rail routes, and ports.

The Republican presidential candidate, US Senator John McCain
underlined those worries over the weekend, saying that if the BTC line
"were destroyed or controlled by Russia, European energy supplies
would be even more vulnerable to Russian influence."

That view is partially supported by independent analysts. According to
Simon Wardell of analyst Global Insight, Russia is not likely to close
or destroy the existing oil export routes across the Caucasus. To the
contrary, Wardell said, control of the existing export routes would
give Russia more power in the negotiation of prices.

With Russian troops showing no haste to withdraw from Georgia,
despite both sides signing a ceasefire agreement, it is too soon to
tell precisely what sorts of control, if any, Russia will attempt to
impose on the region’s oil and gas export flows and revenues.

–Boundary_(ID_kjNKvH7F8b5xE6htNPg9lA)- –

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Border 2008 Looks Past The War In Georgia

BORDER 2008 LOOKS PAST THE WAR IN GEORGIA
by Denis Telmanov

WPS Agency
What the Papers Say (Russia)
August 18, 2008 Monday
Russia

Armenian defense minister invites Georgian attache to observe CSTO
exercises

Border 2008 exercises taking place in Armenia; The latest phase of
Border 2008 – joint exercises for the CIS Collective Security Treaty
Organization – begins in Armenia today. The Georgian military attache
in Armenia has been invited to attend as an observer.

The latest phase of Border 2008 – joint exercises for the CIS
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) – begins in Armenia
today. The next phase will involve live-fire exercises, and a meeting
of the CSTO Council of Defense Ministers on August 22.

As we reported on July 30, the main aim of Border 2008 is to work out
what the CSTO could do to defend an allied state, Armenia, against
external aggression. The exercises involve around 4,000 military
personnel – including 1,500 Russian personnel from the 102nd military
base at Gyumri.

Major General Sergei Chuvakin, head of the CSTO Staff planning and
coordination directorate, has already arrived in Yerevan. He told us
that the current phase entails staff preparations for the practical
phase of the exercises, when Russian and Armenian personnel will
be firing at 1,500 targets at the Bagramian range. They plan to
use over 45,000 rounds of ammunition, including some aircraft-based
ammunition. Air power for Border 2008 is provided by 35 fighter jets,
attack aircraft, and helicopters.

CSTO Staff spokesman Vitali Strugovtsev told us that the Georgian
military attache in Armenia – Colonel Murtaz Gudzhedzhiani, appointed
in late February – has been invited to observe the firing exercises
carried out by Russian and Armenian troops. However, Major General
Chuvakin said that the Border 2008 headquarters has no information
about the Georgian attache’s presence.

Few Reports Of Russian Withdrawal In Georgia

FEW REPORTS OF RUSSIAN WITHDRAWAL IN GEORGIA
Steve Inskeep

National Public Radio
August 18, 2008 Monday
NPR

It’s MORNING EDITION from NPR News. Good morning. I’m Steve Inskeep.

RENEE MONTAGNE, host:

And I’m Renee Montagne.

The Russians promised to start withdrawing their troops from Georgia
today, but there’s little to indicate that this is happening. Western
leaders have warned Russia that it will pay a diplomatic price if
it did not abide by the cease- fire agreement signed with Georgia
last week.

Today, some reports suggest the Russians might have reduced their
presence in the Georgian town of Gori, although they seem to be
controlling an important transportation junction there. NPR’s Ivan
Watson has managed to reach the western part of Georgia, and he joins
us now from the town of Zugdidi. And, Ivan, are you seeing or hearing
any signs of a Russian withdrawal there? This is an opposite end of
the country from South Ossetia and Gori, right?

IVAN WATSON: It is. And, Renee, there have been no signs of a Russian
withdrawal. A Russian military patrol just passed by here in the
downtown area of Zugdidi. In fact, on the drive up along the Black
Sea coast to get here, there were two abandoned Russian vehicles
just left on the side of the road. I presume they may get picked up
at some point.

Last night, residents of the port town of Poti, they said that there
were Russian soldiers at the outskirts to that town. That’s south of
here. And I’ve put in a few calls around Tbilisi and the town of Gori,
and people have said that they have seen no signs that the Russians
are pulling out of entrenched positions that they’ve set up along
the key east-west highway that links the country.

MONTAGNE: Is western Georgia then cut off from the capital and the
rest of the country?

WATSON: Absolutely. The main highway that links this country is
cut off by Russian troops, who have set up checkpoints. So that’s
blocked vehicular traffic. In addition to that, there was a mysterious
explosion on Saturday, Renee, that Moscow has denied any responsibility
for. Basically, it was a huge bomb that blew up a 20-foot span of a
large bridge, a railroad bridge, that runs parallel to the highway.

Railroad workers told me that about 50 trains a day pass over that
bridge. And between the highway being blocked by Russian soldiers and
this mysterious explosion which the Georgian government has blamed on
the Russians, that has basically created a blockade of the Georgian
capital. And it’s extended further, because the neighboring republics
of Azerbaijan and Armenia also rely on this route for trade – for
the export of Azerbaijani oil and for the delivery of supplies,
everything from groceries and foodstuffs to energy products – to
neighboring Armenia.

MONTAGNE: So how did you manage to get there today?

WATSON: We came on a Georgian military helicopter. That’s basically
the only way to get back and forth from the capital to the western
parts of this – what’s really a small country. And as we flew very
low over mountains and through gorges and over farmland, we passed
another Georgian military helicopter coming the opposite direction.

So this is being used the main way to link the country up. I spoke
with a European diplomat yesterday, Renee. He said that already, he’s
seeing signs of the civilian administration here in the western part
of the country is starting to break down with no direct links to the
Georgian capital right now. It’s not clear whether or not that is an
intentional consequence right now of the Russian strategy to occupy
the main road linking the country together.

MONTAGNE: And, Ivan, just briefly, you’re there in the west near
another separatist region: Abkhazia. But it’s looking more and more –
the Russians have certainly said this – that Abkhazia or that South
Ossetia is not going to go back under Georgian control. So has the
government of Mikhail Saakashvili really taken a hit on this?

WATSON: Well, one of the successes that he had had was helping
to centralize Georgia, which really went through a decline in the
1990s. There’s a nearby region called Ajaria, and one of Saakashvili’s
first successes was to kick out a local baron who was pushing for
independence and autonomy and to bring that back under Tbilisi. Now,
that region has been cut off again from Tbilisi. And if this situation
continues, Renee, it puts to risk the centralization, the Georgian
state itself, whether it can continue to exist.

MONTAGNE: Ivan, thank you for keeping us up on this.

WATSON: You’re welcome, Renee.

MONTAGNE: NPR’s Ivan Watson speaking to us from the town of Zugdidi,
in western Georgia.

INSKEEP: You’re hearing him on NPR’s MORNING EDITION, the program
that keeps you in touch with the world.