The Formation Of Two Poles

THE FORMATION OF TWO POLES
Armen Tsaturyan

Hayots Ashkharh Daily, Armenia
Nov 13 2007

Difficult Alternative For "The Third"

After the nomination of Prime Minister Serge Sargsyan for presidency,
by the 11th Congress of the Republican Party the formation of the two
poles that are going to campaign during the forthcoming Presidential
elections on February 19, 2008 came to an end.

By this influential counter-step taken by the government in power,
after ex-President Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s self nomination during October
26 meeting, the pro-governmental and pro-opposition sectors have been
equally "closed" for all the other potential opponents.

Whether it is attractive for them or not, it as an accomplished fact,
and no one is able to change it.

In the formula of the rivalry between "the present and the former ones"
the present ones are evidently superior. Moreover as the recent survey
conducted by the authoritative British company "Comres" displayed,
Serge Sargsyan apparently surpassed other candidates for presidency,
whereas in the list of the pretenders Levon Ter-Petrosyan engaged
only the 5th place.

But there are all the bases to think that in the anticipated
unavoidable two-poled confrontation all the other candidates between
the two rivals will simply "drop out".

>From his political steps, taken from September 21, and especially after
his strict and aggressive speech Ter-Petrosyan polarized the political
domain in such a way that he completely blocked the opportunity of
transferring the forthcoming political campaign into the plane of
political programs tended towards the future.

Of course, hardly will this contribute to the growth of his rating. But
due such a step taken by the ex-President whole "prism" of the campaign
regressed. At present people compare Ter-Petrosyan’s political activity
with that of the government in power.

The problem of what has been and hasn’t been done by "the former and
the present ones" and the issues of clarifying their responsibilities
have appeared. Without it Armenia can’t even think of looking forward.

In such circumstances all the attempts of the "third power" to
be a success or as people like to say "to creep in" will collide
with the same problem – with the necessity to evaluate the contents
and political side of the "the former and the present ones". Which
means all the pretenders to the "third power" will turn into either
"the former ones" or "the present ones" and only after that can they
imagine themselves in the role of the third one.

Not to "be", but to imagine, because in order to "be" the third one
they have to capture one of the already existing real poles.

The accusations of the "third power" that "the present ones" have
brought the former ones onto the scene in order to close the path of
the new opponents, are also not excluded. But who will believe this
chimera, when the conversation is about a life and death struggle,
in the framework of which issues, fatal for Armenia, must be examined
– such as Karabakh issue and external political orientations. It is
evident that in this important ground "the black" and "the white"
are so clearly manifested that they blockade the chances of interim
solutions.

Some people can state that the formula of the campaign between "the
former ones – the present ones" is a deadlock for the country’s
future. But those who want to pass round it haven’t yet managed to
change this logic of campaign and to form a certain political pole
around them. And, by the way, soon it will be very late for them to
do so.

Moreover it is impossible to even think about the future without
overcoming the difficulties of the past and give a new meaning to
the future.

Hence the launch of the Presidential elections promises tough and
unbending campaign between only two political poles. This means all
the other possible candidates for presidency are facing a rather
difficult alternative.

In case of being nominated during the coming one month "the third
ones" must take the roles of either "the observers" or somehow try
to catch the train that has been detached from the platform and try
to be settled down in one of the two coaches.