AUTUMN CHALLENGES
Vardan Barseghyan
Hayoc Ashkharh, Armenia
Aug 16 2007
Do you think it is the preparation for the forthcoming presidential
elections or the attempts to unite are going to settle on the essence
and the main direction of the challenges in store for opposition during
the autumn political examination period? Let’s try to find the answer.
Definitions like "opposition", "radical opposition" or simply
"radicals" or "revolutionaries" usually given to Armenian knights
in shining armor of course reflect the nature of their political
mode of action- radicalism – but they hide the most obvious factor –
that in reality these powers don’t go with the real meaning of the
word "opposition". Because being against someone or acting against
a certain administration doesn’t mean they are opposition.
If we try to distinguish the form from the concept we will get the
following picture.
a) The first challenge in store for the radical powers is the issue
of becoming political opposition. To become political opposition means
to observe the task of coming to power through certain political goal,
attitude, program and ideological prism, something that unfortunately
the powers functioning in that camp still lack. Only after becoming
a political opposition can they think about unification before the
presidential elections, setting a common front and choosing a united
candidate.
b) The second and over again an unavoidable challenge faced by
all the pro-opposition powers is their choice of foreign political
guideline, the main reason of the split in the Republican Party once,
due to which A. Bazeyan left the party with his supporters. Though
the picture in the opposition camp in this sense is much clearer:
"Heritage" and "Orinats Yerkir", Armenian Pan National Movement
National Democratic Union are obviously pro-western parties, "Nor
Jamanakner" and Parties of communistic ideologies are pro-Russian. As
for People’s Party of Armenia – they themselves don’t know what they
are. The situation is interesting in case of "National Union" – one day
they are pro-western one day they are nationalists one day they glory
western democracy. However to become accomplished opposition power
the radicals have to orientate themselves in terms of foreign policy.
c) The third unavoidable challenge is their attitude regarding
the regulation of Karabakh issue. The powers and activists
representing the camp of the former authorities have certain,
clear system. They consider foreign threats as a means of the
legalization and strengthening of the acting power that is to say
"the worse the better". This means if Armenia and Armenians fail
to solve Karabakh issue it will be a precondition to get rid of the
acting administration.
d) The fourth challenge faced by the overwhelming majority of the
opposition powers is to re-gain their rating that came to zero during
the parliamentary elections. Due to internal disagreements it will
be very difficult for them to choose right tactics. That is why to
confront these tough challenges the various opposition powers will
try to create an illusion of unification.
Hence the coming autumn is going to be decisive in terms of
unification, consolidation and clarification of the policy of
amorphous pro-opposition powers. This means the main problem of certain
pro-opposition powers is going to be not with the acting authorities
but between themselves and in the clarification of their relations
with the external world.