PRESS RELEASE
ARPA Institute
18106 Miranda St. Tarzana, CA 91356
Contact: Hagop Panossian
Tel: (818) 586-9660
E-mail: [email protected]
Web:
ARPA Institute presents the Lecture/Seminar: `Can Arab Monarchies
Endure a Fourth War In The Persian Gulf?"," by Dr. Joseph A
Kéchichian, on Wednesday, March 28, 2007 at 7:30 PM at the Merdinian
School auditorium.
The Address is 13330 Riverside Dr., Sherman Oaks, CA 91403.
Directions: on the 101 FWY exit on Woodman, go north and turn right on
Riverside Dr.
Abstract: The main topic of the lecture will be the inevitable
nuclearization of Iran and how that may usher in a permanent shift in
the regional balance of power of the Persian Gulf. The presentation
will attempt to answer questions relevant to Armenia, because of
potential spill-over effects throughout the region. In new regional
confrontations that may draw Turkey into indirect action, what occurs
in Iran, or elsewhere in the Gulf area will have an impact on
Armenia. Among the many concerns that the presentation will address
are: What will the burden of a nuclear Iran be on small and medium
size countries? How have conservative Arab Monarchies in the Persian
Gulf withered tribute and time to three major wars as they protected
common interests for the past twenty-five years? If in the past, Arab
Gulf monarchs cajoled Iran and Iraq and, when that failed, aligned
themselves with World powers to preserve and protect their regimes,
can they address new challenges likewise? Can savvy rulers prevent a
fourth regional war before the first decade of the 21st century is out
in the aftermath of the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq? Can they
prevent a similarly argued call for regime change in the Islamic
Republic? Can they protect vulnerable societies from more harm or
will the Gulf Cooperation Council states hide behind `spillover’ fears
and, by doing so, postpone the inevitable reckoning that their rapidly
evolving nations demand of paternalistic leaders? Will domestic
tensions, regional upheavals, and international competition prevent
them from applying tested methods to survive? Ultimately, how long
will savvy Gulf monarchs succeed in deferring political and
socioeconomic reforms, as they prepare for the tangible repercussions
of what could well be yet another war looming over the horizon?
Dr. Joseph A Kéchichian is the CEO of Kéchichian & Associates, LLC, a
consulting partnership that provides analysis on the Arabian/Persian
Gulf region, specializing in the domestic and regional concerns of
Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United
Arab Emirates and the Yemen. He received a doctorate in Foreign
Affairs from the University of Virginia in 1985, where he also taught
(1986-1988), and assumed the assistant deanship in international
studies (1988-1989). In the summer of 1989, he was a Hoover Fellow at
Stanford University. 1990-96, he was an Associate Political Scientist
at the RAND Corporation, and a lecturer at the University of
California in Los Angeles. 1998-01, he was a fellow at UCLA’s Gustav
E. von Grunebaum Center for Near Eastern Studies, where he held a
grant to compose Succession in Saudi Arabia, [New York: Palgrave
(2001) and Beirut and London: Dar Al Saqi, 2002, 2003 [2nd ed] (for
the Arabic translation)]. Dr. Kéchichian published Political
Participation and Stability in the Sultanate of Oman, Dubai: Gulf
Research Center, 2005, Oman and the World: The Emergence of an
Independent Foreign Policy, Santa Monica: RAND (1995), and edited A
Century in Thirty Years: Shaykh Zayed and the United Arab Emirates,
Washington, D.C.: The Middle East Policy Council (2000), as well as
Iran, Iraq, and the Arab Gulf States, New York: Palgrave (2001). In
2003, he co-authored (with Prof. R. Hrair Dekmejian) The Just Prince:
A Manual of Leadership (London: Saqi Books), that includes a full
translation of the Sulwan al-Muta` by Muhammad Ibn Zafar al-Siqilli.
He has just completed two new volumes, on Power and Succession in Arab
Monarchies [on a Smith Richardson Foundation grant], and A King for
All Seasons: Saudi Arabia Under Faysal, that will be published in
2007. He is the author of numerous essays, a frequent participant on
radio and television programs (e.g. MacNeil/Lehrer News Hour and
various BBC programs). He is a frequent traveler to the Gulf region
and is fluent in Arabic, Armenian, English, French, Italian, Turkish,
and is learning Persian.
For more Information Please call Dr. Hagop Panossian at (818)586-9660