Month: October 2006

THE PERILS OF US-AZERBAIJANI STRATEGIC CO-OPERATION
By Justin Burke

Jane’s International Security, UK
Oct 16 2006

In addition to encouraging Azerbaijan to adapt its armed forces to
handle pipeline security, the US wants Baku’s support for a possible
armed response to deter Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The
five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany, have
offered an incentive package to Iran in return for Tehran’s commitment
to suspend uranium enrichment. As those negotiations make halting
progress, US officials continue to view military action as a possible
last resort. As Iran’s northern neighbour, Azerbaijan could serve as
a useful platform for raids against the Iranian nuclear infrastructure.

Azerbaijan’s attention these days is focused on the Nagorno-Karabakh
issue. Long-running peace talks remain in stalemate over Karabakh’s
future status. Ethnic Armenians, who won control of the territory in
the early 1990s, seek international recognition of independence with
an eye toward eventual unification with the Armenian nation.

Meanwhile, Baku insists that the territory remains under Azerbaijani
control. A settlement appeared to be in the offing at the outset of
2006 but summits between President Aliyev and his Armenian counterpart,
Robert Kocharian, failed to produce the much-anticipated breakthrough.

As the chances for a political settlement faded, a variety of
Azerbaijani officials, including Aliyev, raised the possibility of
an attempt to regain Karabakh by force. A ceasefire, which has been
in effect since 1994, seems shaky as firefights and mortar exchanges
in the so-called contact zone are now an almost daily occurrence.

Energy exports give Azerbaijan the ability to upgrade its military,
which suffered a thrashing at the hands of Armenian forces during the
war. Rovnaq Abdullayev, the head of Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company,
has indicated oil extraction will more than double over the next four
years, reaching 65 million tonnes by 2009. Azerbaijani officials
openly say that they will use petro-profits to go on a procurement
binge. The country’s draft budget for 2007, submitted on 25 September
to President Aliyev, is expected to total about USD6 billion, of
which 13 per cent is projected to go to defence spending.

[End of non-subscriber extract]

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FRENCH AMBASSADOR: "TURKISH-FRENCH RELATIONS WILL BE HURT BY PASSAGE OF THE ARMENIAN BILL"

Turkish Press
Oct 16 2006

Appearing on television yesterday, France’s Ambassador to Ankara
Paul Poudade commented on the French Parliament’s passage of the
Armenian bill, saying that French-Turkish relation could be hurt by
the decision. Poudade pointed out that the bill was passed by the
lower house of Parliament, but had not yet become a law. "Accepting
the so-called Armenian genocide claims is not a precondition for
Turkey’s European Union membership bid," said Poudade, adding that
dialogue between the sides on the issue should be should be improved.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

AZERI AND TURKISH DIASPORA IN CZECH PROTEST DECISION OF FRENCH PARLIAMENT

AzerTag, Azerbaijan
Oct 16 2006

Representatives of the Azerbaijani and Turkish Diaspora in the Czech
Republic held a rally of protest before the embassy of France in
Prague, against the French Parliament’s bill establishing punishment
for rejection of the "Armenian genocide".

During 15 minutes, the protesters have stood before the Embassy with
posters in their hands exposing falsification of historical events
in Czech language.

Chairman of the Azer-Czech Society Elshan Nazarov has presented
to the Embassy employees a book, "The Armenian Terror", in French,
Armenian and Turkish, and a CD, demanded form the democratic France
to refrain form its pro-Armenian position.

Since February 2007, the Azer-Czech Society is going to hold numerous
actions on the Khojali tragedy.

BLEAK REVIEW SENDS ANKARA SLIDING DOWN EU ORDER
David Charter, Brussels

The Australian, Australia
Oct 17 2006

THE timetable for Turkey to join the European Union appeared to slip
yesterday when European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso gave
his most pessimistic view of the country’s progress towards membership
since formal talks began one yearago.

Mr Barroso, highlighting a slowdown in vital reforms as he prepared
the ground for a critical assessment report, said it could be up to
20 years before Turkey joined.

Ankara’s case has suffered blows in recent weeks, including last
week’s vote by French deputies to criminalise denial of the World
War I Armenian genocide, an event never recognised as such by Turkey.

While Mr Barroso has made clear that this is not a criterion for EU
membership, he gave a clear signal that Turkey was failing to meet
formal demands that include guarantees for freedom of speech and
greater civilian control over the military.

"We are concerned about Turkey because the pace of reforms is rather
slow, from our point of view," he said.

"I believe it would be great to have Turkey, if Turkey respects all
the economic and political criteria.

"This is not yet the case. It is a country that comes from a different
tradition. There are efforts in the right direction, but nowadays there
is news that is not encouraging in terms of them coming closer to us."

This was a warning to expect a bleak assessment by EU Enlargement
Commissioner Olli Rehn, who is due to give an update on Turkish
efforts to prepare for the35 EU entry criteria on November 8.

When formal talks began with Ankara last year, Mr Rehn spoke of a
time frame of "about 10 to 15 years" before conditions would be right.

Mr Barroso has been reluctant to put his own target on the process
but yesterday showed how much Turkey’s case had slipped in 12 months,
saying: "We cannot expect Turkey to become a member in less than 15
to 20 years."

His assessment will provoke fresh concern in Ankara, which is coming
under intense pressure to step up reform and, in particular, resolve
its blockade of vessels from Cyprus.

A failure to do so before the end of the year could lead to a
suspension of the formal EU accession talks.

But Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is said to have refused to give
any further concessions before a Turkish general election next year.

Mr Rehn has spoken of the need to avoid a "train crash" in Turkish
accession negotiations. Austria and France want to hold national
referendums on further enlargement, adding to the hurdles that Turkey
must overcome.

FINANCIAL TIMES: RISKS ARE HUGE
By Anka

Zaman, Turkey
Oct 16 2006

Claims are being made that the Cyprus problem could derail Turkey’s
admission as a member of the EU by the end of the year.

The Financial Times newspaper warned that the ensuing risks would be
huge. "In Turkey, it could halt the country’s cultural march westward,
which began 80 years ago under the rule of Kemal Ataturk, and instead
empower Islamist and nationalist political forces."

The newspaper published a commentary by Vicent Bonland and Kerin Hope
on the Cyprus problem and Turkey’s EU negotiation process. Reserving
a page for the issue, the newspaper reported that the Cyprus problem
could be set as a precondition for Turkey to take further steps
towards integration.

"While a row between the Turkish and French last week over
recognition of the Armenian genocide has put another formidable
obstacle in the way of Turkey joining the EU, Cyprus poses a much
more immediate difficulty. It is possible that, by the end of this
year, the problem will derail the admission of Turkey as a member –
the EU’s most ambitious and controversial geo-strategic project,"
the newspaper wrote.

To re-emphasize the warnings of a possible train crash with the EU,
the FT said that, the "risks were huge," and referred to a statement
by Kirsty Hughes who was quoted as saying: "If Turkey’s EU bid were to
collapse, the EU’s overall foreign policy credibility risks serious
damage."

France and Austria Could Seek to Halt Negotiations

The Financial times also wrote that many EU diplomats now admit that
it was a mistake to accept Greek Cypriot membership into the EU, as
Turkey accuses the Union of reneging on promises to end the isolation
of Turkish Cyprus.

Turkey refuses to open its ports to Greek Cypriots before the isolation
is removed, the article wrote, adding that "if it does not do so,
opponents of Turkish EU membership such as France and Austria (and,
of course, Cyprus) could insist that the negotiations be ended – the
"train crash" scenario – or suspended, which would be the equivalent
of driving the train into a siding."

According to diplomats, the Turkish government, which will hold a
general election next year, is stuck between refusing to make further
compromises on Cyprus and keeping its EU negotiations on track.

The article also refers to EU term president Finland’s proposal to
end the deadlock, noting that even Finland’s modest proposals are
too much for Turkey and Greek Cypriot leader Papadopulos.

The newspaper also notes that the TRNC was suffering disproportionately
from the status quo.

EU TO MEET ANGRY TURKEY FOR PROGRESS REVIEW

Al-Arab online, UK
Oct 16 2006

Turkey meets the European Union to review tense relations on Monday,
embittered after French lawmakers passed a bill making it a crime to
deny that Ottoman Turks committed genocide against Armenians in 1915.

Although not formally on the agenda of Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul’s
talks in Luxembourg, anger over the French vote seems bound to dominate
the regular session with the 25-nation bloc’s biggest candidate.

The EU, represented by the Finnish and German foreign ministers and
European Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn, will press Ankara again
to open its ports to shipping from EU-member Cyprus to avoid a possible
freeze in entry negotiations.

But European diplomats say the French move, even if it seems unlikely
to become law, made it almost impossible for the Turkish government to
make any concession over Cyprus before elections next year, despite
Finnish diplomatic efforts.

Rehn called last Thursday’s Paris vote "counter-productive" both
for efforts to reconcile Turks and Armenians and for moves to reform
Turkey’s penal code to increase freedom of expression.

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan was quoted on Sunday as saying
French President Jacques Chirac had telephoned him to apologise and
promise help in heading off the bill.

But the row has fuelled Turkish nationalist arguments that the
Europeans do not really want Turkey as a member, thus it is pointless
to make concessions on Cyprus, Kurdish rights, religious minorities
or ties with Armenia to please Brussels.

Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja is trying to craft a mini-deal
to ease trade ties on Cyprus.

Turkey does not recognize the Greek Cypriot government in Nicosia,
which represents the divided island in the EU.

The executive European Commission issues its next progress report on
Turkey’s candidacy on November 8.

It is likely to conclude that the EU-driven reform process has slowed
and Ankara has not met its treaty obligations on Cyprus.

That could prompt EU leaders at a mid-December summit to freeze or
slow the entry negotiations.

The British ambassador to Turkey, Peter Westmacott, said if the Finnish
move fails, the EU will hold Turkey to account for not meeting its
commitments with the risk that the accession process — at least in
part — would be suspended.

"That would be dangerous. The negotiations, once stalled, would be
very hard to re-start," he wrote in an opinion piece published in
Turkish Daily News on Monday.

Cyprus is using its EU veto to block the opening of any new "chapter"
or policy area in talks with Turkey.

Cypriot Foreign Minister Georgios Lillikas said his government would
not budge from its position of no new negotiations without a move
by Turkey.

"Cyprus is not in a position to open or close chapters or set
benchmarks," he said in an interview with German newspaper Financial
Times Deutschland.

"We are firmly determined to pursue this path because any further
concession to Turkey only serves to undermine the EU’s legitimacy."

The EU will review troubled relations with another long-term aspirant
to membership later on Monday in talks with Serbian Prime Minister
Vojislav Kostunica.

Brussels broke off talks on closer ties with Belgrade in May after
Kostunica failed to make good on a promise to arrest and hand over
former Bosnian Serb military commander Ratko Mladic for trial in The
Hague on genocide charges.

Chief U.N. war crimes prosecutor Carla Del Ponte is expected to tell
the EU troika at Monday’s talks that Serbia is still not cooperating
fully with her tribunal.

TWO THIRDS OF FRENCH AGAINST ARMENIAN BILL

Zaman, Turkey
Oct 16 2006

A public survey conducted in France has revealed that most of the
French public is against the Armenian bill passed in the French
National Assembly on Thursday. The Armenian bill makes it crime to
deny that an Armenian genocide occurred during World War I.

According to an online survey, 68 percent of respondents did not
welcome the Armenian bill.

Those who think that this bill serves an Armenian cause say that it is
"harmful" for France at the same time.

Only 26 percent of the respondents support the Armenian bill according
to the survey, while six percent refrained from expressing their views.

First the French Senate and then the President Jacques Chirac must
approve the bill before it can become law.

STORES SHUTTERS COME DOWN
By Zelis Yildiral, Istanbul

Zaman, Turkey
Oct 16 2006

In response to France’s proposed law to criminalize denial of an
Armenian genocide during World War I, some companies are closing
their stores.

Yesterday, most stores in the Taksim Square district that sell French
goods did not open.

Many foreign members of the United Brands Association (UBA), a
non-governmental organization of the Turkish retail sector, are
concerned about reaction to the bill and are taking extra precautions.

Boycotts of French products are spreading all over the country.

>From Istanbul and Izmit in the west, to Konya and Nevsehir in the east,
fresh protests continued. Shelves in a market in Erzurum were cleared
of French products and residents in Nigde, not content to leave it
at that, burnt their French products.

In many stores, once favored products are being returned or left on
the shelves after customers learn of their French origin.

The cosmetic sector is being especially affected as 80 percent of
cosmetic products sold on the market belong to French companies.

Shoppers are going right past shelves stacked with Vichy and Loreal
creams, shampoos and make-up products.

Long-time Loreal user Ayse Genc says, "I don’t know what France is
trying to do, but it’s hurting the friendship between two countries."

Aysel Ordu says that from now on she is checking the label for French
origins, and adds "I’ve given up a French perfume I really like I’ve
been using for two years."

PARTICIPANTS OF NK WAR HELD PROTEST ACTION IN FRONT OF FRENCH EMBASSY IN AZERBAIJAN
Author: S.Ilhamgizi

TREND Information, Azerbaijan
Oct 16 2006

On 16 October, a protest, initiated by the Karabakh Liberation
Organization (KLO), the Society of Karabakh Invalids (SKI) and the
Organization War Veterans (OWT), was held outside the French Embassy
in Baku. Although the protest was stopped, it was possible to submit
the resolution of the action to the French Embassy, Trend reports.

18 protestors were detained, but later released. Three participants
are still in the Sabail District Police Department No. 39.

The protesters demanded the annulment of the law penalizing denial
of the so-called "Armenian genocide", for the French President and
Parliament to apologize to the Azeri and Turkish citizens, to stop
the activity of the French Embassy in Azerbaijan and to expel Armenia
from the co-chairmanship in OSCE Minsk Group.

ARMENIAN PATRIARCH IN TURKEY SLAMS FRENCH GENOCIDE BILL

AKI, Italy
Oct 16 2006

Istanbul, 16 Oct. (AKI) – The Armenian Patriarch of Constantinople
(Istanbul) Mesrop Mutafyan has criticised last week’s decision by
France’s lower house of parliament to approve a vote which would make
it an offence to deny that the massacre of Armenians under Ottoman
rule was a genocide. "Ultra-nationalist groups will benefit from the
draft that the French Parliament had approved and a risky period will
start," Mesrop said in an interview with Turkish newspaper Milliyet
published on Monday.

"I’m concerned that the hard-won bridges between Turks and Armenians
will collapse after this draft", he said.

Though small the Armenian Patriarchate of Constantinople has exerted an
influential role among Orthodox churches. It represented the largest
Christian community in Turkey.

Last week’s vote by the French lower house has provoked angry reaction
in Turkey.

Some shops and supermarkets in various cities have stopped selling
French products. A private language school in the city of Konya
removed French courses from its programme and some travel agencies
cancelled their tours to Paris originally scheduled for the 3-day
end-of-Ramadan holiday later this month.

"I don’t want to name what has happened in 1915. Tragic things have
happened. The Nationalist Ottoman party has role on that issue, the
seperatist motives of Armenians have a role as have the policies of
Western countries have role on that," Patriarch Mesrop said in the
Milliyet interview.

"The Armenians living abroad put all their efforts to win official
recognition for the ‘genocide’. They also do not take our views into
account. We Armenians living in Turkey support dialogue and peace.

But the disapora think that we are forced to say these things since
they think we are hostages", he said.