GEORGIA GOES ON THE OFFENSIVE
Dmitry Sidorov, Washington; Vladimir Solovyev
Kommersant, Russia
Sept 25 2006
NATO prepares to accept its first member from the CIS Speaking at
the United Nations last week, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili
accused Russia of "annexation" and "bandit occupation" of Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. His sharp tone was related to approval by the
top foreign officials of the NATO states of an "intensive dialog"
with Tbilisi, which is practically the same as an invitation to
membership. That promises nothing good for Russia.
Dreams Come True
Saakashvili made his eyebrow-raising appearance at the Friday session
of the UN General Assembly in New York. During his 20-minute expose of
Russia’s destructive role in the restoration of Georgian territorial
integrity, he demanded that Moscow withdraw its peacekeeping troops
from Abkhazia and South Ossetia immediately, since "their mission has
nothing to do with maintaining peace." Then the Georgian president
criticized Kremlin policy toward Georgia.
"Those regions," he said, referring again to Abkhazia and South
Ossetia, were annexed by our neighbor to the north, Russia, which
supports their inclusion as part of it, intentionally mass issuance of
Russian passports in violation of international law… The residents
of the disputed regions live under the bandit occupation of Russia. I
doubt that there is anyone in this auditorium who would tolerate that
type of interference on their territory."
Saakashvili’s strong words were unprecedented. Russia had never been
accused of "annexation" before, much less from the floor of the UN.
Previously, Tbilisi had criticized Moscow through Georgian
Defense Minister Irakly Okruashvili and the fact that such serious
accusations are now coming from the head of state is an indication
that Georgian-Russian relations have reached a new level of
hostility. According to information obtained by Kommersant, the U.S.
administration asked Saakashvili to tone down his statements.
Nonetheless, such phrases as "bandit occupation" and "accomplices of
the Russian peacekeepers" remained.
The Georgian president’s boldness is obviously a byproduct of Tbilisi’s
recent diplomatic victory. Before Saakashvili’s UN appearance the top
foreign officials of the 28 member states of NATO decided to integrate
Georgia more closely into their ranks and approved the transition to
a phase of "intensive dialog" with the country.
Former Czech president Vaclav Havel coined the term "intensive
dialog." The phase implies closer integration into NATO and is
essentially the penultimate step toward membership in the alliance.
The Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary were the first country to
complete the intensive dialog phase successfully and the phase has been
a mandatory step for all entrants since 1997. Thus Georgia, which has
always made its desire for membership clearly known, has received the
signal that its wish may become reality. Georgia is the first, and so
far only, CIS country that can boast of this close relationship with
NATO. NATO’s step is exceptional also because one of the conditions for
accession to the organization is the lack of conflicts on the territory
of the candidate state. Georgia has two conflict zones, Abkhazia and
South Ossetia, and armed conflicts breaks out in them from time to
time. It seems Brussels has decided to close its eyes to that detail.
Georgian authorities are unabashedly happy and they are certain
that nothing will interfere with their speedy progress in NATO. "We
are close to NATO membership," Saakashvili said yesterday as he
congratulated Georgian judoists on their victory over their Russian
opponents in a world championship finals match in Paris. "The Russian
judo team has created certain problems for the Georgian sportsmen,
just as Russia is creating problems for Georgia on its way to NATO.
But Georgia is already in the semifinal in that question, and nothing
will stop it from going to the final."
Russia Resists
Georgia’s accusations did not go unnoticed by Russia, although Moscow
responded in a softer tone. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov,
who was also at the session of the UN General Assembly in New York,
stated that the Georgian president had "twisted facts" and Georgia was
buying "a large quantity of offensive weapons." Lavrov complained of
"numerous violations by Tbilisi of the agreement on the settlement
of the Abkhazian conflict." "The problems can only be solved with
mutual respect and on the basis of fact," Lavrov said. "I did not hear
either in Mikhail Saakashvili’s speech." Russian President Vladimir
Putin was still more reserved. "Mikhail Nikolaevich [Saakashvili] is
a hot-blooded person," he noted. "In the Caucasus, all politicians
are marked by particular emotionality. All the more so since he is
concerned about his country and the situation that is developing
in the government." He added that, should a compromise solution be
found to the conflicts on the territory of Georgia, Moscow was ready
to act as guarantor of such agreements.
The prospect of Georgia’s joining NATO caused a bigger stir in
Russia. The Russian Foreign Ministry and Defense Ministry reacted
differently to the possibility of the organization’s appearance within
Russia’s zone of interests in the Caucasus. Russian Defense Minister
and Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Ivanov did not ascribe particular
meaning to it, saying that Georgia’s accession to NATO will not damage
Russia’s military security. Ivanov noted that Russia has the means
to neutralize the negative effects of the move. "We are building two
modern mountain brigades in the Caucasus now," he said.
"Their personnel will operate in the mountains at high elevations.
Both brigades will be stationed directly on the border with Georgia,
so Russia’s security will not suffer."
The Foreign Ministry did not share Ivanov’s calm and optimism but
reacted nervously to the NATO decision. "Any expansion of the alliance
will bring changes in security, but the case with Georgia has a special
character because of its proximity to Russia and the obvious complexity
pf the Caucasus problem," reads the official statement of the Foreign
Ministry. "The accession of Georgia to the current, untransformed NATO,
if that intention is realized, will seriously affect the political,
military and economic interests of Russia and be negatively reflected
in the fragile situation in the Caucasus." The ministry openly stated
Moscow’s displeasure. "The beginning of an intensive dialog means
that Georgia has been given new a status in relation to NATO. Our
negative attitude toward that is known."
The Circle Narrows
The euphoria of Georgian authorities over the beginning of that
intensive dialog is connected with hopes for a quick settlement of
the Georgian-Abkhazian and Georgian-South Ossetian conflicts. Tbilisi
is convinced that Moscow will obstruct that process and is counting
on NATO’s help to make Russia change its position. "We are certain
that the support of the leading powers will help solve the problem of
our territorial integrity," stated Givi Targamadze, chairman of the
Georgian parliamentary committee on security and defense. "We hope
that it will also put an end to the tension in relations with Russia."
Georgia’s hope may be justified, although settling territorial
conflicts in favor of Georgia is hardly NATO’s main goal in the
region. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline opened this year in the
Turkish city of Ceyhan. The pipeline goes to Europe around Russia and
is so far pumping oil from Caspian deposits belonging to Azerbaijan.
In the near future, Kazakh oil is to flow through the line as well.
The West, which was the main sponsor of the construction, needs
a firm guarantee of the line’s security, all the more so since the
Baku-Ceyhan leg of the pipeline passes through unstable areas. NATO’s
entry into the area could guarantee that stability.
The membership of Georgia alone may be insufficient to sooth Western
nerves, however. Therefore, increasing NATO activity in Azerbaijan
and Armenia may be expected. They already participate in NATO programs.