NAGORNO-KARABAKH: A PLAN FOR PEACE
International Crisis Group, Belgium
Oct 11 2005
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Tbilisi/ Brussels, 11 October 2005: A compromise peace in
Nagorno-Karabakh looks possible, but significant stumbling blocks
remain.
Nagorno-Karabakh: A Plan for Peace,* the latest report from the
International Crisis Group, examines the causes of the conflict,
analyses the negotiation process led by the Organisation for Security
and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), and identifies the necessary
elements of an achievable peace plan. An earlier Crisis Group report,
from 14 September 2005, explored how Armenian and Azeri communities
view resolution of the conflict.
“The two sides appear close to agreeing on key principles of a peace
deal”, says Sabine Freizer, Director of Crisis Group’s Caucasus
Project. “It is essential that the governments now begin preparing
their people for a compromise”.
Major elements of the proposed settlement package include:
Leaving the core issue of Nagorno-Karabakh’s status open for later
resolution; withdrawal of Armenia-backed Nagorno-Karabakh forces
from the occupied districts of Azerbaijan surrounding the entity;
renunciation by Azerbaijan of the use of force to reintegrate the
entity; deployment of international peacekeepers; return of displaced
persons; and re-opening of trade and communication links.
Nagorno-Karabakh’s status should ultimately be determined by an
internationally sanctioned referendum with the exclusive participation
of Karabakh Armenians and Azeris, but only after the above measures
have been implemented. Until then, Nagorno-Karabakh would remain part
of Azerbaijan, though in practical terms it would be self-governing
and enjoy an internationally acknowledged interim status.
Eleven years after the 1994 ceasefire, burgeoning defence budgets,
increasing ceasefire violations, and continuing demonisation by
each side of the other side are ominous signs that time for a peace
agreement is running out.
“So far, despite progress in the negotiations, the resumption of war
remains as likely as peace”, says Alain Deletroz, Crisis Group’s Vice
President for Europe.