Armenian paper sees oil pipeline as being “rope” around hands of Azeri leaders
Hayots Ashkarh, Yerevan
24 May 05
An Armenian paper has predicted that the opening of the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline may end in the deployment of American
troops in the Caucasus “under the pretext of ‘guarding the oil
pipeline'” and notes that the USA and the oil companies ” have not
constructed the Baku-Ceyhan for the benefit of the leadership of
Azerbaijan, but to resolve their own geopolitical and geoeconomic
problems”. The paper concludes by saying that the project, far from
helping Azerbaijan to regain Karabakh, is simply a “big hole that
Heydar Aliyev has dug for his son Ilham”. The following is the text of
the article headlined “Baku-Ceyhan and the Karabakh issue” by Vardan
Grigoryan and carried by the Armenian newspaper Hayots Ashkarh on 24
May. Subheadings have been inserted editorially:
Tomorrow, 25 May, the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline will be officially
opened. Let us recall that by undertaking the construction of the
Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline, [late Azerbaijani president] Heydar Aliyev
wanted to please the USA and by means of the dominant USA role in the
region to settle the Karabakh issue in favour of Azerbaijan. As a
result of this, American companies have spent billions of dollars to
implement a project which is absolutely absurd from an economic point
of view.
The point is not only the great expenditure needed for the
construction of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline. Even if they manage to get
the required volume of oil from Kazakhstan in 2008 (there are simply
no such volumes in Azerbaijan), the oil that will go from Ceyhan to
Europe will all the same be two times more expensive than Arab or
Russian oil.
NATO might use pipeline as an excuse
Thus, Azerbaijan instead of becoming a trump card in the “economic
war” will simply turn into an “economic excuse” for the USA to
establish itself in the region. This is a process which, under the
pretext of “guarding the oil pipeline”, may end in the deployment of
NATO mobile forces in the region. Is it really worth spending several
billion dollars in the name of this? This has been implemented with
the British Petroleum company directly supported by the USA. Once the
Baku-Ceyhan pipeline starts to operate, the USA will have achieved its
purpose: the withdrawal of Russia from the region, i.e. it will settle
an important geopolitical issue under the cover of an economic
project.
Pipeline to benefit USA more than Azerbaijan
But what problem is Azerbaijan really settling? Let us recall that
according to the Azerbaijani leadership, the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline
should first of all provide USA support for a settlement of the
Karabakh issue, and secondly bring in billions of dollars profit to
Azerbaijan by means of which it would re-equip its own army and
dictate its will on Armenia in the Karabakh issue.
But the USA and the oil companies that are acting on its orders have
not constructed the Baku-Ceyhan for the benefit of the leadership of
Azerbaijan, but to resolve their own geopolitical and geoeconomic
problems. So transforming any expected economic privilege into
military and economic domination for the leadership of Azerbaijan may
directly damage USA interests in the region. For this reason
Azerbaijan should forget about any military revenge [against Armenia]
and pin its hopes only on the prospect of a peaceful and quiet return
of Karabakh. Why and how should the USA provide such a settlement of
the Karabakh issue when it is evident for the USA that any attempt
aimed to returning Karabakh to the dictatorial regime of the Aliyev
clan would be pregnant with the prospect of the war restarting while
ruling out such a war is the USA’s major task.
Pipeline is a “rope” for “Aliyev clan”
In fact, since the commissioning of the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline, it
is becoming a unique “rope” that ties the hands of today’s leadership
of Azerbaijan. But the problem is not limited to this, as today the
next problem is already round the corner for the USA: the strategic
task of “democratizing the region”. And who should the settlement of
this problem start with if not with the Aliyev clan, the power of
which has become an obstacle in the way of democratizing of the
Caucasus-Central Asia region? We think that at present the functioning
of the Baku-Ceyhan oil pipeline does not open the way for a
pro-Azerbaijani settlement of the Karabakh issue but simply reveals
the big hole that Heydar Aliyev has dug for his son Ilham.