At the end of May, the Ankara Court of Appeal decided to invalidate the results of the leadership elections of Turkey’s main opposition party, the People’s Republic Party (PRP). That decision led to the dismissal of its current leader, Ozgur Özel, and the return of its past leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

It is noteworthy that in one of his speeches, after regaining his position, the latter did not undertake to immediately hold an extraordinary congress, which would allow its members to re-elect their leadership. Instead, he spoke of the need to “cleanse the ranks” of corruption, a formulation that suggests he may be seeking to consolidate his position before returning the leadership question to party delegates.

The Turkish public, which does not share the sympathy for Erdogan’s team, was particularly angered by the fact that Kılıçdaroğlu’s first visit plan after his return included the headquarters of the ruling “Justice and Development” party, which contradicts the logic of consolidation in the systemic opposition camp, where the PKK has traditionally played the role of first violin. It should be especially emphasized that in all these years, despite his respectable age (77 years), Kılıchdaroğlu was not going to leave the party race, appearing in the public arena with enviable stability and trying to influence the domestic political agenda in one way or another. However the sympathy and support of a significant part of the electorate is not on his side. Rather, on the contrary, a politician who has spent most of his career criticizing Erdogan’s crackdown on the legal system has defended a court decision that is quite in line with his own ambitions, creating the image of him as a “wolf in sheep’s clothing.”

The President of Turkey, for his part, insists that the government has nothing to do with the trial, noting that during the trial the plaintiffs were the members of the party themselves. Erdogan emphasized that internal reprisals in the opposition party do not interest him at all, and the main and only problem of the country’s leadership is Turkey itself and the construction of the “Turkey Century” concept. At the same time, it should not be mentioned that the prospect of removing the team, which raised the rating of the People’s Democratic Party by about 35 percent and won a resounding victory in local government elections, seems too comfortable for the current leadership of the country on the eve of the national referendum (elections) expected in 2028.

At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the already existing factor of division within the opposition, which did not arise due to the actions of the Turkish judicial system, but appeared to many earlier, significantly affecting the unity of the opposition camp during the previous presidential election campaign.. To remind: 2023 of the People’s Party of Ukraine immediately after the convention, Hatta’s former mayor Lutfu Savas, who was formerly a member of Recep Erdogan’s AKP and later defected to the PAP, stated that some delegates had been bribed with promises of financial incentives, favors, or political appointments. On that basis, he filed a civil lawsuit to annul the voting results, claiming that the voting process was subjected to “unlawful influence”, therefore the election of the party’s leadership was invalid. Moreover, there have been many speculations in the Turkish press that E. Imamoglu’s arrest was no less helped by his party members, who generously provided information to the investigation.

The state apparatus actively uses the factor of division of the opposition for its own purposes. Turkey’s pro-Kurdish parties have long been the target of state efforts to marginalize the ethnic group’s political demands and limit influence.. Thousands of party officials were arrested, dozens of elected mayors were dismissed and replaced by state-appointed trustees, party co-chairmen were jailed. Since 2024, the opposition People’s Party has been facing unprecedented legal prosecutions. In June, the Ankara court also invalidated the 2023 Hayrenik Party Congress (Anavatan Partisi).․ the official reason is the same: forged signatures and invalid delegate votes.

However, not everything is so monolithic within management. Individual Turkish experts do not rule out that this year the reshuffle of the Turkish cabinet (new ministers of justice and internal affairs) took place: Erdogan’s son, N.B. In order to prepare the ground for “smooth transfer of power” to Erdogan.  It is noted that, judging by the professional experience and high degree of loyalty of the newly appointed persons, they were chosen not for their competence in management matters, but for their “proven willingness to use state institutions against political opponents, first of all, the People’s Party of Ukraine”. By strengthening the control over these ministries, the President of Turkey thereby strengthens his power over the mechanisms that control the electoral process, law enforcement agencies and the judicial process. So, according to some commentators, R․ Erdoğan not only leads the country with an almost unlimited toolkit of power, but also shapes in advance the conditions in which his successor will be decided.

Ankara has not officially commented on the reason for the replacement of the two current ministers, but it should be noted that these changes took place at a time when the issue of the presidential race is becoming increasingly relevant. Although the elections are scheduled for 2028, the election campaign seems to promise to be a long jump, as the turmoil over potential candidates and the arguments over the favorable situation for one or another political force are already heating up. Some predict that the son of the leader of Turkey may take the position of AKP leader already this year. In this case, depending on the effectiveness of institutional pressure on the opposition, R. T. Erdogan has a chance to create conditions for a controlled transfer of power. However, such an outcome ultimately depends on the date of the elections.

Currently, it appears that neither the current president nor his ruling coalition is inclined towards an emergency option. Popular discontent, largely due to the worsening economic situation in Turkey, compounded by regional geopolitical turmoil, is reducing AKP’s popularity and turning early election campaigning into a politically risky option. At the same time, the ongoing “cleansing” of the opposition is heating up the election race, which can become a landmark for the modern history of the Republic of Turkey.

MARIA KOLESNIKOVA

Candidate of Political Sciences, Associate Professor of Moscow State University

interaffairs.ru

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

—

Weeks ago, General Prosecutor Anna Vardapetyan also submitted a statement to the Corruption Prevention Commission.

How fair is the Prosecutor General, or whether his justice is measured by facts or by CP scales these years, the public is witnessing the answers to the questions every day, and today will also witness his declaration.

Thus, Anna Vardapetyan stated in the declaration that she started and ended the year with 2 real estates: an apartment in the Malatia Sebastia community of Yerevan, which was donated in 2014 and is a shared property, and an apartment purchased in 2024 in the Kentron community with shared ownership and managed by shared ownership.

At the end of the year, the balances of three bank accounts of the Prosecutor General amounted to 1574984.73 drams, and the cash funds at the beginning of the year were in the amount of 400 thousand drams, at the end of the year – 300 thousand drams.

The official’s annual income in 2025 is the most impressive. he stated in the statement about 40 million 100,305.9 drams, which was generated from 33 million 241,909 drams received from the Prosecutor’s Office (about 90,316.5 USD at the current exchange rate) and 886,710.1 drams received from YSU and from payments equal to it, 5,663,555 drams from income tax refunds and 308,131.8 drams from the loan.

The balance of the principal amount of received loans and borrowings as of December 31 of the reporting year, in the table of the declaration, Vardapetyan mentioned the mortgaged apartment and the amount of the loan principal amount of 42,885,017.9 drams.

During the year, he spent 7,190,181 drams on the repayment of the loan, and he did not publicize the contents of another 15,700,000 drams.

In the line about participation in commercial organizations, Anna Vardapetyan mentioned her husband Mamikon Gevorgyan’s 100 percent share in the “THERMO-MINERAL” organization.

We learn from Mamiko Gevorgyan’s declaration that he owns 2 properties and one more with co-ownership. In 2024, he bought a 2019 Mercedes car. The official’s husband declared a bank account balance that increased from around 10,000 AMD at the beginning of the year to 270,000 AMD at the end of the year, as well as cash, which amounted to 500,000 AMD at the end of the year instead of 300,000 AMD at the beginning of the year.

The declarant indicated the total volume of income for 2025 as 22 million 614,748.5 drams, which was generated from 3,021,449.5 drams received from “Ameriabank” CJSC, 15,700,000 drams from the donation received from Anna Vardapetyan, and 3,893,299 drams from the salary received from “ARMENAL” organization and other payments equal to it.

Mamikon Gevorgyan also directed 5,700,000 drams to repair real estate.

P.S. By the way, last year Anna Vardapetyan stated in her declaration that she received a salary of 30 million 751,713 drams from the Prosecutor’s Office, and/or payments equivalent to it.

—

“Strong Armenia” party issued a statement.

“The imprisoning of Davit Ghazinyan, a member of the board of the “Strong Armenia” party and a candidate for parliament, is a common political persecution.

Investigative bodies, the prosecutor’s office and the courts have become a tool to punish and silence the opposition by the hands of this government. This is an attempt to finally destroy democracy in the country.

We will not tolerate it, and we will fight to the end with all the power and determination of the law.”

—

Today, during a briefing with journalists after the government session, Nikol Pashinyan announced that against the backdrop of the post-election events in Armenia, the meeting between Assistant to the President of Azerbaijan Hikmet Hajiyev and Secretary of the Armenian Council of Ministers Armen Grigoryan in Dilijan took place on his instructions, during which, according to the official information of the Council of Ministers, issues related to the peace agenda between Armenia and Azerbaijan were discussed.

“I instructed Armen Grigoryan to discuss with his counterpart from Azerbaijan whether there is interest, that is, whether there is such a need or not,” he said.

And yesterday, during the NA-Government question-and-answer session, Pashinyan, referring to the Hajiyev-Grigoryan meeting, noted that an attempt was made to manage a specific threat by organizing it.

“In the outside world, and not only in Azerbaijan, a question may arise: Are there 500,000 citizens in Armenia who think that we should go to take Armenia from sea to sea, or to bring back Karabakh, or to go to Karabakh, review the peace agreement, and what is written in the agreement, nothing, we will not do it, are there 500,000 citizens?

If the perception is that there are so many people… We need a constitutional majority to rule out war, if we don’t manage this situation now, and a perception is created that there are 500,000 people in RA who say we should continue the Karabakh movement, that is, I mean the sum of the votes recorded in favor of the three-headed war party, it will seriously worsen the military-political situation. in RA, especially under the conditions when we have a new army today. In other words, a question may arise: can that army end up in the hands of those people?…” he continued.

In other words, Pashinyan tried to assure Aliyev of several things through Hajiyev: there are not enough people in Armenia who want to bring back Artsakh and start a war, which is a manipulation, because even the opposition forces in Armenia have not talked about war or bringing Artsakh back by force. But this did not prevent Pashinyan from recognizing his political opponents as responsible for the escalation of the military-political situation, in short, from admitting that there are “revanchist forces” in RA.
Secondly, Pashinyan, being the head of the country, actually reports to Aliyev’s assistant that the new army created by them cannot be seen as a threat or a participant in war plans.

A man who, like us, “About Hikmet Hajiyev’s NATO failures, why does he want to see Davit Tonoyan punished, why does he hate the Armenian army?” in the article we wrote, demanded the RA authorities to take responsibility for the “Ganja events” and to introduce restrictions on the RA armed forces, including the supply of weapons. But this does not prevent Baku from targeting any events related to the RA armed forces.

In particular, on June 17-25, the “Eagle Partner-2026” military exercise will be held in the Republic of Armenia, in which this year the servicemen of the peacekeeping brigade of the RA Armed Forces (250 participants), the US ground forces in Europe and Africa and the Kansas National Guard (58 participants), France (24 participants), and Greece (11 participants) will participate.

In other words, it does not become a de facto purely Armenian-American military exercise, although the content is unchanged: increasing the level of interoperability of the unit participating in international peacekeeping missions within the framework of peacekeeping operations, implementing the exchange of best practices in management and tactical communication, strengthening the readiness of the RA peacekeeping unit.

And only the above-mentioned fact gave Caliber.az, which is close to the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan, room for various assumptions, moreover, this propaganda media did not hide that it is trying to interfere in the internal affairs of the Republic of Armenia. In particular, we are talking about Samit Aliyev’s “An Inconvenient Truth” broadcast on caliber.az. of the program is about

«Kansas National Guard It is part of the US Armed Forces Reserve. The Guard reports to both the Governor of Kansas for emergency response within the state and the federal government for to participate in world military operations. Well, it’s hard to even comment on anything here. Moreover, pay attention, 2 of the 4 participants in the military exercises are the countries that once supported the Armenian “separatism” in every possible way, both in the Ottoman Empire and in Azerbaijan., – observes Samit Aliyev, who on the one hand quotes the official message of the RA defense about the goals of the military exercise, on the other hand, hints that the conduct of military exercises with this or that country is exclusively for RA to decide and an internal issue, with which the Azerbaijani analyst does not agree.

“We know each other very well, and, willy-nilly, some internal affairs of RA become Azerbaijan’s affairs as well.” emphasizes Aliyev, implying that any conflict between the two countries is a window for manipulation by foreign powers and strengthening their own influence.

“It is always better to overestimate, this is one of the primary rules of intelligence for any self-respecting country. A self-respecting state never relies on dubious theses or makes calculations based on them, but then again, they are not… No, a self-respecting state always acts on the basis of the fact that they will definitely happen…” suggests Samit Aliyev, the author of the “Inconvenient Truth” program.

In other words, he indirectly makes it clear to the current RA authorities that war can never be ruled out, military and political plans cannot be made based on visible or demonstrated peace, at least they do not forget this simple truth.

Moreover, the Azerbaijani propaganda machine is refuting Pashinyan’s claims about the sovereignty of the country he leads, claiming that Baku has the right to interfere in the internal affairs of Armenia, if they are especially security issues. But in parallel with this or the “Eagle partner” peacekeeping exercises at the Mukhrovani military base near Tbilisi are held The “Caucasian Eagle-2026” special tactical exercises, in which the special forces of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey participate, and Armenia is not at all concerned, at least publicly. They will say that these are regional countries, but Azerbaijan is not only conducting military exercises with regional countries, and not with peacekeepers.

Or, Nikol Pashinyan constantly declares that we should not remember the Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan’s war crimes, we should get out of that cycle with statements and symbols, but Aliyev always reminds the “actions” of the Armenian side and insists that they will not forget.

The last fresh example that they will never forget is how the Armenian “occupiers kept pigs and animals in their mosques”. But Aliyev once again neutralized Pashinyan’s claims related to the Karabakh conflict settlement process. At the opening ceremony of the annual meeting of the Islamic Bank, he stated that the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, the permanent members of the UN Security Council, France, Russia and the USA, who had a mandate to reach peace and free “their territories from occupation”, could not force Armenia to leave “Azerbaijan’s territory”.

“At the beginning of the negotiation process, we had high hopes. We tried to reach the solution of the issue in a peaceful way, we tried to convey to the big powers that the truth is on our side. Our territories were occupied. Look at the map: Armenian troops are in our territory. But in response, we heard: go and make an agreement. That was one of the messages. The second is that there is no other solution. Third, you cannot start a war. Fourth, if you start a war, sanctions will be applied against you.” Aliyev elaborated.

In other words, the OSCE Minsk Group was at least able to prevent a full-scale war, even if there was a perception that the situation would explode one day, but in the context of the negotiation process over the Artsakh issue, the USA, France and Russia did not disagree on what happened next: we all saw what is happening today, we see what will happen tomorrow, Armenia is presumable, because it is not a factor, by and large, it does not have the right to an influential voice.

And Baku’s fears are not associated with absolute Pashinyan’s power, but with the Armenian nation, the Armenian army, which, although today Pashinyan does not consider it a serious security factor, but Azerbaijan does not rule out its strengthening, so it builds its plans not according to what is seen, but according to what is not seen and what is possible.

And Pashinyan’s government lives in the present and does not try to see even what is visible, for example, that Baku is trying to make the right of return of “West Azerbaijanis” understandable to the international community, and the obligation of RA in this matter…

—

Nikol Pashinyan in a press conference with journalists after the Cabinet meeting today, talking about the visit of Aliyev’s aide Hikmet Hajiyev to Armenia, said that he personally instructed Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan to organize such a meeting.

Yesterday, during the question-and-answer session with the Government in the parliament, Nikol Pashinyan, speaking again about Hajiyev’s visit, said, “We must look at our situation with an outside eye.”

“In the outside world, and not only in Azerbaijan, a question may arise: Are there 500,000 citizens in Armenia who think that we should go to take Armenia from sea to sea, or to bring back Karabakh, or to go to Karabakh, review the peace agreement, and what is written in the agreement, nothing, we will not do it, are there 500,000 citizens?

If the perception is that there are so many people… We need a constitutional majority to rule out war, if we don’t manage this situation now, and a perception is created that there are 500,000 people in RA who say we should continue the Karabakh movement, that is, I mean the sum of the votes recorded in favor of the three-headed war party, it will seriously worsen the military-political situation in RA, especially in the conditions that we have today army In other words, a question may arise: can that army end up in the hands of those people… I mean this. We know the reality that there are not so many people, but electoral bribes have been distributed with the help of external forces who are interested in the region will explode.”had said Nikol Pashinyan.

Political scientist Stepan Danielyan according to him, this statement is the continuation of Nikol Pashinyan’s famous statement, according to which he said: “If I am not elected, there will be a war, and there is an opposition that is a fighter for war, there are revanchists”, etc.

“This is blackmail, and through this blackmail, he is trying to give an ideological basis to his re-election, saying that if he is not there, there will be a war.

Now he has been re-elected in a famous way, and there are arguments that he is not legitimate, these elections and his legitimacy are in question. It is no coincidence that even the structures under Western influence in RA also dispute the results of the elections.

It is believed that there was a certain agreement between Russia and the United States in connection with the Armenian elections, that the public should choose whoever it chooses.” of 168.am Stepan Danielyan said in a conversation with

According to him, there are obvious violations, especially in connection with 3 polling stations, where votes were canceled, which affected the structure of the National Assembly.

The political scientist is sure that both Russia and the West have posed a problem to Nikol Pashinyan, first of all, the United States as well, that these elections were problematic, which actually causes problems for Russia-USA relations.

“Under these circumstances, what should Nikol Pashinyan do? His main bet is on Turkey and Azerbaijan, because the threat of war comes from those two countries. He must get legitimacy from there, and the legitimacy is that he “brings peace.”

In this regard, he is right in saying that he urged the Secretary of the Security Council to invite Hajiyev to Armenia to show that “we are in dialogue”, he should receive some support from Turkey and Azerbaijan,” our interlocutor added.

As for Nikol Pashinyan’s other statement that, “if the elections are rigged, then why is the square empty?”, Stepan Danielyan noted that since he did not get legitimacy through the elections, he thinks that he can get some legitimacy on the streets, that is, he thinks that the opposition cannot fill the streets, but he will be able to.

“Nikol Pashinyan, who went to the elections with violations, is trying to gain legitimacy on the streets, he needs the opposition to bring people to the streets. I think the opposition should not bring people to the streets, and since time is working against Pashinyan, they will bring people to the streets later, we should not move with Pashinyan’s agenda.

Considering Pashinyan’s way of working, there will be a street fight, but it will be in an extreme economic situation, when people will understand what ontological problems this person has caused for them and the country,” Stepan Danielyan emphasized.

—

In the “Pressing” program Satik Seyranyan the guest is Davit Ananyan, member of the management board of the Unity Wings party, general director of the D-ES Consulting Group company, former head of the RA State Revenue Committee (SRC), candidate of economic sciences. is.

The main theses of the interview are below.

• Yes, illusion won this election. When we submitted an application to the Central Election Commission (CEC) to cancel the election results, we also noted that on the night of the election, at 02:00, Pashinyan’s announcement that he won alone was an instruction to the CEC regarding the election results.

• The result of the pre-election period repression was that we saw a shameful and universal use of electoral fraud. What Nikol Pashinyan did was creating the illusion of “victory”, it had nothing to do with people’s moods and was a recommendation to the CEC:

• The election results are a nightmare for Pashinyan, because apart from the fact that he did not have a constitutional majority and will not be able to implement Azerbaijan’s instructions, he is also not legitimate, and even the entire international press is talking about Pashinyan’s lack of legitimacy in these elections. He still does not admit that the people do not like him. The stigma of illegitimate government causes Pashinyan much greater anxiety:

• Pashinyan appeared in the role of the hero of Krylov’s famous fable. He is in the middle, and they are pulling him from the sides, and he has to satisfy everyone’s interests. 

• Now going to trade. If Pashinyan accepts Russia’s minimum demands, Russia will accept the results of this election. But appeasing Russia means that he will have a problem with Europe. Of course, this is his fault, but all of us, our people and our state will bear the adverse consequences of all this. He is in a dead end situation, and if he loses, we will all lose, and first of all, Armenia. Pashinyan imposed a peace treaty on Armenia:

• Pashinyan stole 8-10% from the opposition. We will complete the legal processes because the results of this election must be annulled because these elections are not legitimate. The June 14 CEC session was a failure as an administration. There are elementary things according to which the administrative body, CEC, was a failure. If you watched the session, you would have seen what a miserable situation the Commission and its chairman were in. The members of the CEC understood that they were committing gross offenses, and they could not even make Vahagn Hovakimyan understand on the live broadcast: brother, you are doing wrong things. The administrative act adopted by the CEC is completely illegal.

• If you want to see what Azerbaijan really expects from Armenia, there are several Azerbaijani talking heads that you should listen to. Among them, one of Aliyev’s supporters, former Foreign Minister Tofik Zulfugarov, says that we should not be happy with Pashinyan’s victory, because we have a problem. Pashinyan did not collect enough to be able to change the RA Constitution, and this is very important for us… Baratsi says. 

• Look now, the opposition is disputing the results in the CC, parallel to this, the pro-CP circles are applying to the CC, during this time they have already announced that they will make changes to the “Referendum” and the “Electoral Code” in order to make their re-election easier, they will discredit the opposition, isolate the leaders, and it is not excluded that they will go to special elections in September and win this time with a constitutional majority and no having overcome the complex of being legitimate. And in this context, it is not excluded that the Constitutional Court will cancel the results of the elections on the principle of “the mountain gave birth to a mouse”.

• Pashinyan’s puzzle was put together incorrectly, we do not have the announced results, but we must learn from our mistakes in order to obtain our results during possible early elections. Perhaps only the general unity of the opposition around a specific goal will save here:

• Local government elections will be held in October-November. Canceling them is difficult, and if there are to be extraordinary NA elections, they should be in September.

• In the form of sanctions applied by Russia, particularly in the form of bans on the export of agricultural products and not only agricultural products, the peak of the dissatisfaction cycle will be in July-August. People will feel these hard blows then. They will find themselves in a very difficult situation. If there will be elections in September, then its peak will be on the eve of them. 

• Economically, we are in bad shape.

• If you think that Russia should leave here because you want to, you are exaggerating your perception of your subjectivity, especially since you don’t have any subjectivity… when the elders speak, no one asks for your opinion. Nikol Pashinyan, being the most pro-Russian, played between the poles, and now the time has come to pay the debts. You should at least have a brain not to say that we will import gas from Azerbaijan when there are no subsystems for importing gas, and even if it is possible to build them, it will take at least 5 years. Well, suppose you made that stupid decision and built that subsystem. it will last for 5 years, what will you do for those 5 years, what will the people do?:

• Armenia is an experienced country producing atomic energy, has ties with the IAEA and is highly appreciated by it. Spin as you like, Russia is sitting at the table in the energy system and related topics, and that is a fact that you should take into account. Therefore, we should consider the issue of Armenia’s subjectivity in the context of all the processes taking place in the international arena.

• Even if they say that we will urgently lower the customs duty so that Armenian goods can enter Europe, the question arises whether Europe will accept our goods that arrived in Europe as a result of a political decision. there is a question of standardization… Things don’t happen that fast. These are just demonstration steps by the authorities and they will not have any results. Russian markets that have been operating for decades are now closed, and even if they open, how long will it take for our products to recapture those markets? Europe’s announcement about compensating the Armenian peasant is a one-time action.

• The Eurobureaucracy pats Pashinyan on the shoulder, says: live long, but remember: the price of breaking away from Russia and coming to Europe is heavy, you will have difficulties, and if you are ready for it, we welcome you. 

• What have you done to reduce your economic and political dependence on Russia? What were you thinking of bringing the Russian gold, rolling it around here, and taking it to the Arab Emirates? What have you done to develop your industry, nothing? You framed that gold as an industry to pretend to show growth… you did that, nothing else.

• Administrative resources and interests always win. it doesn’t matter what you say, are you educated or not, are you systematic or not? It was not ideas and plans that were compared, but behavior. Nikol Pashinyan and his administration created such an election environment where your ideas and programs were not competitive.

• We are experiencing a value crisis. The value degradation of our people is killing me. you go and choose the abyss, the evil, the non-existence:

• The state plan for the forced resettlement of 300,000 Azerbaijanis, who have nothing to do with Armenia as their homeland, has been implemented in Armenia. The “West Azerbaijan” concept is an Azerbaijani state program that hangs over our heads like a club, but the moment Nikol Pashinyan is not in power, the moment the government in Armenia is national, that program will not exist either. We know exactly how we should cancel it. that issue is closed by the decisions of international courts. 

• There is consolidation around an idea, a goal, a road map. We will hear the actions of the opposition political force with the most votes and understand how that consolidation will be. there is consolidation around a goal and an idea, not a person and a party.

Details in the video.

—