Russian-Turkish “consensus” or diplomatic game? Why is Ankara suitable?

At the current stage of global polarization and formation of a multipolar world order, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s working visit to Russia once again emphasized Ankara’s complex strategy of combining NATO membership and the eastern vector.

The visit showed not only the dynamics in Armenian-Russian relations, but also showed the new geopolitical configurations developing around BRICS.

During the Lavrov-Fida joint press conference, the Russian Foreign Minister emphasized that Russia highly appreciates Turkey’s efforts to support the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine. “We highly appreciate the sincere interest of our Turkish friends to support the search for a fair, stable and long-term settlement of the situation around Ukraine,” Lavrov said.

Fidan, in turn, reaffirmed Ankara’s readiness to participate in mediation efforts. He noted that relations between Moscow and Ankara continue to strengthen and move to the institutional level. He emphasized that the dialogue between the countries is developing in accordance with the tasks set by the heads of the two states.

Fidan added that the parties maintain regular high-level contacts and cooperate in the fields of economy, energy and diplomacy. Lavrov stated that the possible accession of Ukraine to the European Union (EU) could have serious internal consequences for the union. “In that case, they will simply collapse,” he said, commenting on the prospects of EU expansion.

According to him, disagreements are deepening within the EU regarding the future of the integration project and its possible militarization.

The Russian Foreign Minister also believes that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky relies on public statements instead of classical diplomacy. He described this way of working as “megaphone diplomacy” and noted that Kiev sends conflicting signals.

At the press conference, Lavrov announced that they also discussed the situation in Transcaucasia. According to him, Russia and Turkey have agreed to cooperate closely in Transcaucasia (South Caucasus), Middle East and other regions. Lavrov also emphasized the 3 3 format, the doors of which, according to him, are open for Georgia.

“We reaffirmed the importance of stability and regional cooperation that peace and settlement processes will bring to our region. We are satisfied with the progress recorded between Azerbaijan and Armenia. The steps taken in the process show that the effectively established peace in the region is now reflected on the ground,” said Hakan Fidan, emphasizing that the problems of the South Caucasus should be solved through dialogue and cooperation by the countries of the region and close neighbors. He also talked about the regional multilateral format, calling it 3 2.

168.amin a conversation with Russian analyst Alexander Khramchikhin said that the Lavrov-Fida joint message regarding the South Caucasus was that Moscow and Ankara are trying to establish their influence in the region by establishing the principle of regional responsibility.

“The announcements regarding the South Caucasus were a signal to the regional countries and the West that Russia and Turkey have a consensus that regional issues are resolved by excluding external interference in the region. The interesting thing is that at this stage, when the USA and the European Union are trying to actively participate in the South Caucasian processes, the West actively participates in many processes, Russia and Turkey, despite many disagreements, take the position of limiting the involvement of extra-regional forces, which is also shared by the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Khramchikhin said.

According to him, in essence, these statements are made for Armenia, which is pursuing an active European integration policy, currently the West relies on the official Yerevan in many issues in the region. “On the one hand, we see the establishment of a multipolar world order, changes, including in the South Caucasus, but parallel to the strengthening of Turkey’s position here, we see the strengthening of the West. This trend worries all regional countries, but Turkey’s situation is different, because, unlike Iran and Russia, the West treats Turkey’s interests in the South Caucasus with respect, so there is mostly diplomacy in these messages. “Recently, if we pay attention, Turkey is not significantly interested in the “3 3″ format, because Turkey alone is comfortably positioned in the South Caucasus,” Khramchikhin said.

In his opinion, the “satisfaction” expressed by Fidan regarding the progress recorded between Armenia and Azerbaijan is remarkable.

“Turkey is trying to show that the developments recorded in the South Caucasus are taking place within the framework of the logic they have outlined, which also includes the prospect of opening communication channels,” he noted.

Khramchikhin believes that the results of the Lavrov-Fida meeting make it clear that Turkey is deeply trying to maintain its role between the West and the East, as an effective mediator and player.

According to him, the same applies to the South Caucasus as well, with one exception that Turkey has influence in that region and is in the immediate vicinity.

“Turkey currently has such a position in the South Caucasus that neither the Russian Federation nor the West has, therefore, Turkey is important for Russia and the West to maintain influence in the South Caucasus, why not to deepen it as well?” Therefore, Lavrov’s and Fidan’s statements are great diplomacy, in which Russia represents its interests, Turkey represents its interests, but in a deeper sense, the messages in Moscow about the South Caucasus actually showed the complex configurations that exist around the region,” Khramchikhin said.

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