ARMENIAN PRESIDENT IN CONTROL AS OPPOSITION PROTESTS FIZZLE OUT
Emil Danielyan: 6/09/04
EurasiaNet Organization
June 9 2004
Armenia’s President Robert Kocharian appears to have warded off a
challenge to his authority, surviving a two-month opposition protest
campaign that aimed to force his resignation. Even though the protests
failed to attract large numbers of Armenians, some political analysts
in Yerevan say the opposition campaign inflicted considerable political
damage on Kocharian.
Since April, opposition leaders had promised “decisive action”
against Kocharian. At the most recent street protest June 4 in
central Yerevan, however, the opposition acknowledged that it lacked
sufficient backing to fulfill its aim, and abandoned plans to march on
Kocharian’s residence. “We believe that we are not yet ready to carry
out actions needed for achieving our final victory,” a leading member
of the opposition Justice bloc, Albert Bazeyan, told a thinning crowd.
The unrest stemmed from the February-March 2003 presidential election
in which Kocharian secured a second term amid allegations of vote
rigging. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. His
opponents still refuse to recognize the legitimacy of his reelection
and were unsuccessful in a 2003 attempt to have the voting results
invalidated. Kocharian critics later decided to embrace protest
tactics, striving to imitate the success of Georgian President
Mikheil Saakashvili, who came to power amid the “Rose Revolution”
in Tbilisi. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
The opposition unveiled the protest strategy in early April. The
most critical moment occurred early on in the protest campaign, as
riot police, during the early hours of April 13, dispersed opposition
protesters as they marched towards Kocharian’s official residence in
Yerevan. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].
The leaders of Armenia’s two main opposition groups, the Justice
bloc and the National Unity Party (AMK), have since continued the
unsanctioned rallies in the city center. The protests have flagged
in recent weeks as many opposition supporters grew increasingly
frustrated over the lack of “decisive action.”
Bazeyan and other opposition leaders said they will continue to rally
supporters in the capital to keep up pressure on the authorities.
“There will be no stability in the country as long as Kocharian remains
in power because stability and Kocharian are incompatible things,”
the most radical of them, Aram Sarkisian, said.
But few observers believe that demonstrations attended by several
thousand people will pose a serious threat to the ruling regime.
Given the effective end of the protest campaign, political analysts
are examining the question of why the Armenian opposition failed
to mobilize what one of its leaders described as a “critical mass”
of demonstrators.
In the view of Aghasi Yenokian, director of the independent Armenian
Center for Political and International Studies, Justice and the
AMK never had a clear action plan. He said the opposition also lost
popular trust due to its inability to successfully press its appeal
over the presidential election tally. “The opposition has shown on
several occasions that it can let the people down at any moment,”
Yenokian said.
Still, some local political experts believe that the protests,
which provoked the worst-ever government crackdown on the Armenian
opposition, dealt a blow to Kocharian’s legitimacy at home and
abroad. That, they say, could open new cracks in the country’s shaky
governing coalition, rendering the medium- to long-term political
situation in the country unpredictable.
“Armenia is entering a period of political apathy where there is no
effective government and [no] effective opposition,” said a recent
commentary in the pro-opposition daily Haykakan Zhamanak.
Authorities have maintained throughout that the opposition protest
campaign was unconstitutional. On June 8, one of Kocharian’s top allies
declared victory in the political struggle. “The opposition has failed
to achieve its goals,” Prime Minister Andranik Markarian said.
Throughout the crisis, Kocharian stressed that Armenia’s strong
security apparatus ensured that a repetition of the “Georgian scenario”
would not occur in Yerevan. At the same time, Kocharian has sought
to placate building popular frustration.
Kocharian has long tried to cast himself as the custodian of a
fast-growing economy. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive]. The benefits of economic growth, though, are not evenly
distributed in Armenia, as many in the country continue to grapple
with poverty. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight
archive]. In recent weeks, Kocharian has expressed renewed interest in
improving living conditions. His schedule in early June, for example,
was full of meetings, heavily publicized by state-controlled television
channels, with officials at all levels of government to examine issues
ranging from suspected corruption in high school graduation exams to
patchy supplies of drinking water.
In addition to the high-profile effort to address popular concerns,
authorities have cracked down on the opposition, arresting hundreds of
government critics. The crackdown continued even after strong criticism
voiced by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe in late
April. Since then, a 24-year-old man has been sentenced to an 18-month
jail term for hurling a plastic bottle at a riot police officer during
the April 12-13 events. Four other opposition activists received up
to 15-month prison sentences stemming from their participation in
another protest.
Although Kocharian is the winner of the latest round, experts
believe the political bout will continue. Yenokian, for one, viewed
the deepening intra-governmental infighting as a source of political
turmoil down the road. “The processes should not be considered over,”
the analyst said. “They may well have a continuation.”
Editor’s Note: Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and
political analyst.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

ARMENIAN PRESIDENT RECEIVES MEMBER OF GERMAN KfW BANK COUNCIL
ArmenPress
June 9 2004
YEREVAN, JUNE 9, ARMENPRESS: The president of Armenia Robert Kocharian
received today the delegation of Kredietenschaft fur Wiederaufbau
(KfW) bank, headed by member of KfW council Ingrid Matheus Mayer,
which arrived in Armenia within a regional visit.
The presidential press office reported that Robert Kocharian stated
with satisfaction that the program carried out in cooperation with KfW
are the most successful ones from the point of their effectiveness. He
particularly outlined the cooperation in the sphere of energy and
banking system.
According to Mrs. Mayer, the cooperation in various spheres is on
the excellent level. She said that KfW pays serious attention to the
development of small and medium business. In this regard she outlined
the importance of the German-Armenian fund’s activity. She said the
cooperation in the spheres of energy will be continued. In her words,
there is a certain interest towards the water system.

US AMBASSADOR VISITS SYUNIK
ArmenPress
June 9 2004
KAPAN, JUNE 9, ARMENPRESS: US ambassador to Armenia, John Ordway,
paid a two-day working visit to the southern province of Syunik on
June 8-9 to get a first-hand information on the ground about the pace
of implementation of an array of projects, funded and supported by
his government.
The first leg of his visit was to Meghri, home to one of the biggest
copper and molybdenum plant, that was privatized by a US-based company
recently. The same day the ambassador met with representatives of local
non-governmental organizations and community leaders in Meghri and then
in Kapan to introduce them to the projects, implemented in the region
with the support of the US government and hear also their opinions.
On the second day of the visit John Ordway visited a local kindergarten
being repaired by Save the Children Organization on USAID funds and
then attended a ceremony marking the end of a major repair of the
local mental clinic, funded also by Save the Children.

MAP BUILDS MODERN BUTCHERY
ArmenPress
June 9 2004
YEGHEGNADZOR, JUNE 9, ARMENPRESS: A butchery that will comply with
US and European standards is being built in Yeghegnadzor, in the
vicinity of ARID Goat Breeding and Research Center with the support
of USDA Marketing Assistance Project (MAP).
According to Sos Avetisian, a public affairs officer of the MAP,
the refrigerating room and other auxiliary facilities, also two
shops, one for processing the hide and the other for butchering are
ready. There is also a special window for visitors who can watch the
entire production process of the butchery. A US experts is invited to
teach local specialists European methods of operating a butchery. The
butchery’s capacity will be around 3,000 goats a year. MAP is planning
to build another five such butcheries.
The ARID Center houses imported purebred goats from the United
States. These purebred goats are crossed with native Armenian goats
to obtain a crossbred animal with increased milk production. This
improved milk production increases village farmers’ financial incomes
and provides the milk necessary for goat cheese factories to make
exotic goat cheeses that are exported abroad.

ONE COMPANY BIDS FOR ZANGEZOUR PLANT
ArmenPress
June 9 2004
YEREVAN, JUNE 9, ARMENPRESS: Trade and development minister Karen
Chshmaritian told a news conference on Tuesday that only one German
company has made a bid for participation in a tender for privatization
of Zangezour metallurgical plant in southern Armenia.
The deadline for filing bids is June 26. Chshmaritian said the shares
of the plant are estimated $130 million. The minister said the plant
works with profits, which last year amounted to $20 million.

KOCHARIAN CONFERS DECORATIONS ON 40 REPRESENTATIVES OF VARIOUS SECTORS
ArmenPress
June 9 2004
YEREVAN, JUNE 9, ARMENPRESS: On the occasion of Republic Day president
Kocharian conferred today Armenian medals, orders and other decorations
on a group of police and national security officers, prosecutors,
employees of local self-management bodies and health and education
communities.
President Kocharian was quoted by his press office as saying that
it is a good tradition to confer national decorations on people
from different branches for their merits on the occasion of national
holidays. He said: “You too have earned this distinction by your hard
work. This means that the progress of our country is contingent on
every of us and a breakthrough is possible only given a harmonized
cooperation between all branches.”
Kocharian said their appearance on the list was an evidence of their
good name and high professionalism that cannot be earned in one day
and without hard and enduring work.
Kocharian also said that a simple comparison of crime rates in Armenia
and other developed countries, or in countries with the same level of
living standards is enough to commend Armenian police and appreciate
its work. Kocharian said the difference is significant, an evidence
of good work of the police.
“It is at this moment that we have to be more optimistic about our own
forces, we have to believe that hard work and initiative help surmount
all obstacles,” the president said. The recipients of the awards in
turn thanked the president for his warm attitude and conferring state
orders on them, adding it was a boost to their further activity.

GYUMRI-KARS: HISTORICAL CULTURAL TOURISM SYMPOSIUM
ArmenPress
June 9 2004
YEREVAN, JUNE 9, ARMENPRESS: The Yerevan office of Academy for
Education Development (AED) in cooperation with several organizations
and interested individual and with the financial support of USAID
has initiated a project, called “Gyumri-Kars: Historical Cultural
Tourism Symposium”. The Symposium is supposed to be held on June 15-18-
the first two days in Gyumri and the last two in Turkish Kars, lying
across the border.
Local government officials, experts on preservation of historical
cultural monuments, specialists in architecture and tourism and
businessmen form Armenia and Turkey were invited to participate and
discuss the present challenges of preservation of historical and
natural objects and development of tourism.
During the symposium the participants are expected to observe the
current state of historical and natural monuments in Kars and Shirak.
They will confer necessary steps to be taken to prevent the monuments
from further destruction. The participants will also discuss prospects
for developing tourism.
A strategy on developing tourism and preservation of historical
monuments in Gyumri and Kars is expected to be developed . The
strategy will be submitted to the interest of state bodies, donor
and international organizations, other interested parties.
According to Academy of Education Development Yerevan office,
preparatory works are almost complete. All the details are conferred
and agreed upon with the Turkish side. However, according to our
sources, there is a concern among Turkish participants that the
symposium will fail. They recall Ankara where the respective bodies
have not authorized the visit to Gyumri.
In case of such development, this will be not the first case when
bilateral initiations fail because of ‘lack of willingness’ from
Ankara at the last moment.

NATIONALIST FROM MOSCOW SUBURB ALL BUT WINS LOCAL ELECTION
by Anna Rudnitskaya
Moscow News (Russia)
June 9, 2004
While old democrats argue with new liberals, young elements have moved
into politics under “Russia for Russians” slogans and, confusingly,
to incantations that “fascism in Russia will not come to pass”
Vladimir Yermolaev is young, well educated, and well pleased with
himself. He has good reason for this: At 27, this past May he ran
in municipal elections for the first time, garnering 34% of the vote
outright -without any “administrative resources” either, or any other
resources for that matter. His resources are his slogans. “Russia
for Russians, Moscow for Muscovites” just about sums them up.
Candidate
“I’ve been reading Izvestia since seven,” Yermolaev told me. “My
parents were avowed anti-Communists and I was brought up in a dissident
spirit, thinking: The Communists will be driven out, and everything
will be just fine. In 1995, I voted for Gaidar and in 1999 for the
Union of Right Forces (SPS). But then I began to have my doubts. Not
surprisingly, I particularly resented the appearance of hundreds of
thousands of people from other states, above all from former Union
republics, in Moscow and in Russia in general. So when I saw leaflets
of the Movement Against Illegal Immigrants on the metro, I realized
that I had found ideological soul-mates. I remember that day: I was
simply happy to hear something that was in harmony with my own mood,
and I very much liked the people – all of them my age or younger. So
I joined.”
For the benefit of those who do not know, it was the Movement Against
Illegal Immigrants that, in the wake of the bomb attack on the Moscow
metro, organized a sanctioned rally under the slogan: “How much longer
must we tolerate Chechen crime against Russian citizens?!” It was
the Movement Against Illegal Immigrants that, two years ago, after
an Armenian pogrom in the town of Krasnoarmeisk, outside Moscow,
demanded the release of its organizers.
For all that, when I cited Yermev’s election campaign leaflet,
mentioning “black occupants,” he was hurt:
“It didn’t say ‘black’. After all, we are civilized people.”
Are you not worried by the presence of skinheads at your civilized
rally?
“Quite the contrary, I find these people far more likable than the
indifferent slaves of the consumer society. People such as skinhead
leaders will eventually constitute the elite of this country.”
You are similarly complacent about the fact that it was under your
slogans that ethnic Armenian houses were raided, and men and women
beaten?
“Well, you can say that ethnic Armenian houses were raided, or you can
say that there was a conflict between the indigenous population and
Armenian immigrants. There are thousands of inva-ders in the country,
and it is increasingly difficult to drive them out.”
What was written in the leaflet you saw in the metro?
“Let me see… Something to the effect that there are 1.5 million
Azeris living in Moscow and that Moscow is the capital of Azerbaijan.”
What does it take for an advocate of liberal values from an
intellectual family to become an activist of a Nazilike movement? It
is enough to tell him that 1.5 million Azeris are to blame for his
country’s woes and that to make life better, they must be kicked out.
Voters
The district of Orekhovo-Borisovo Yuzhnoye is a typical Moscow bedroom
suburb. It was its residents that, in a municipal election this past
May, gave Yermolaev, a candidate sponsored by the Movement Against
Illegal Immigrants, 34% of the vote.
They say that United Russia candidate Irina Dmitrieva, a school
principal (in the end, she won by a narrow margin, with just a few
hundred votes more than Yermolaev), campaigned with food parcels that
were handed to war veterans purportedly on the occasion of V-Day. Her
rival gave as good as he got, distributing door to door leaflets
with quotations from Mayor Luzhkov: “Moscow is a Rus-sian city!”
(Moskovsky Komsomolets daily, Sept. 22, 2003) and President Putin:
“The problem of illegal migration is becoming a serious threat to
national security” (from a statement at an RF Security Council session,
Nov. 29, 2000), thus probably utterly baffling the voters who until
recently have traditionally been voting for Putin and Luzhkov.
On the whole, even though he lost, Vladimir Yermolaev is satisfied
with the election:
“I was greatly excited; I constantly felt the support of the people.
We had a meeting at a housing maintenance and repair administration
office, attended by some 25 senior citizens, whereupon a woman from
the veterans’ council came up to me and said: ‘Well done, Vladimir,
we are with you!’ We are still in touch and we’ve agreed to work
together. Generally speaking, the result was very good.”
A week later, the only indication of the past election at School #986
where Vladimir Yermolaev had been a student and that served as one
of the two polling stations where he got the most votes, is scraps
of leaflets on the doors. The school principal’s secretary could
not remember a student named Yermolaev, but his platform raised no
objections with her.
“So what? What he is saying is absolutely right. There are so many of
these Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Azeris that we just don’t hear any Russian
spoken here.”
True, she voted for Dmitrieva all the same: “After all, she is a
school principal.”
A Common Future
Incidentally, this is an idee fixe with all new right and old
left elements: As long as they are kept off the air and have the
formidable administrative resource brought against them, they can
for a time forget about the federal parliament, focusing instead on
local, municipal elections – on the assumption that people on the
ground are more concerned with heating or local amenities than with
abstract discussions about the destiny of Motherland. Yet while the
new right and old left are only pondering action, Vladimir Yermolaev
has already all but won. What is especially important is that his
voters were swayed by his pledge to drive all “invaders” from the
neighborhood far more than by his promise to landscape the area.
Inspired by his first success, Yermolaev is determined to pursue a
political career.
“See, Anna,” the young sociologist smiles almost condescendingly.
“All parties are phantoms really, while we are a real movement of
people who are working to uphold their idea, and that’s our strength.”
At parting he said: “We have a great future.”
There is no reason to doubt this. MN

Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
June 9, 2004, Wednesday
NATO CHALLENGES RUSSIA’S INFLUENCE IN THE CIS
SOURCE: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, June 8, 2004, p. 5
by Yuri Simonjan, Tatiana Ivzhenko
In Warsaw and Brussels yesterday, NATO structures held important
talks with representatives of the defense ministries of Ukraine and
Georgia. These two countries are expected to receive invitations
to the NATO Istanbul summit by the end of this month, and they will
attend the summit with the status of NATO’s special partners. NATO
has been making active advances to the Defense Ministry of Azerbaijan
since late May. It is reasonable to assume that NATO is interested in
consolidating some key GUUAM members around the idea of integration
into Western structures.
As Russia becomes more active in establishing and consolidating
economic blocs in the CIS, NATO’s operations in this area are
growing more intensive as well. The West must fear that Moscow’s
initiatives and efforts might lead to the rise of a new and fairly
powerful international alliance, with relations between its members
not restricted to economic contacts alone. This could even deprive the
West of its ability to influence key areas of post-Soviet territory.
That is why NATO countries, those which criticized their CIS partners
only recently, are now changing their tune and promoting closer
relations with the CIS. Off the record, some NATO representatives
speak of the possibility of granting Ukraine and Georgia permission
to join NATO as soon as 2007 – even though it’s obvious that neither
country is ready for it in economic, political, or military terms.
Douglas Bereteur, president of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly,
spoke of NATO membership prospects for Ukraine during a recent visit
to Kiev. But NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer told a
correspondent of Day that although NATO’s doors are open to Ukraine,
it’s too early as yet to talk of any exact dates. Commenting on
speculations by some Ukrainian analysts about the negative impact
of Russia on NATO-Ukraine relations, Scheffer said: “Russian Foreign
Minister Sergei Lavrov said recently that any decision Ukraine makes
will be its own sovereign decision. I don’t think Ukraine’s intentions
can have any effect on relations between NATO and Russia.”
Judging by certain statements of NATO officials, the Alliance is more
concerned about Ukraine’s present undemocratic system and problems with
its military reforms. But despite all its misgivings, NATO has signed
a mutual understanding memorandum with Kiev. Under this agreement, NATO
will use Ukrainian AN-124 Ruslan transport planes in its operations.
Expanding Ukraine’s participation in joint operations with NATO
was also discussed at a conference organized by NATO and the Polish
Institute of Foreign Affairs. Ukrainian analysts, however, attach
considerably more importance to NATO’s consent to arrange a meeting of
the NATO-Ukraine commission in Istanbul on June 28 and 29. A previous
meeting of this commission was to take place in Prague in autumn 2002,
but it was cancelled because of the scandal over alleged unlawful
deliveries of Kolchuga Chain Mail systems to Iraq. NATO didn’t even
invite President Leonid Kuchma to the meeting last year. Ukraine was
represented by its foreign minister there.
These days, NATO considers it necessary to reestablish relations with
the Ukrainian leader, who keeps saying that Ukraine is not going to
knock at the doors of Western structures if those doors are closed to
it – instead, it will turn to more loyal foreign partners. Ukrainian
Foreign Minister Konstantin Grischenko said the other day that Kiev
has not yet made up its mind concerning the format of participation
in the Ukraine-NATO meeting in Istanbul. This might mean that NATO
will find it necessary to exert more effort (and perhaps even made
some concessions) to change the pro-Russian direction of Ukrainian
foreign policy.
In its relations with pro-Western Georgia, NATO doesn’t have the sort
of problems it has with Ukraine. A team of experts from the Defense
Ministry of Georgia has been in Brussels since June 1, working with
their NATO counterparts on a draft development program for the Georgain
miliary. This plan may be signed today. Tbilisi is represented at
the talks by Defense Minister Gela Bezhuashvili. Bezhuashvili is
currently in Brussels, but his time has run out. Fulfilling the plans
will probably be the prerogative of Georgy Baramidze, Bezhuashvili’s
successor, who will soon be endorsed by the parliament of Georgia.
Bezhuashvili told journalists that he was going to Brussels with a
detailed plan specifying all Georgia’s commitments to NATO, the dates
of their implementation, and a program for developing and restructuring
the Armed Forces. The Georgian military’s troop strength will be cut
from 14,000 to 10,000, and a transition to contract service will
be made eventually. In line with NATO standards, 85% of employees
at the central staff of the Defense Ministry will be civilians. The
functions of the Defense Ministry and General Staff will be divided.
All the same, Georgia will have to solve a lot of problems if it’s
really aiming for full membership of NATO. Withdrawal of Russian
military bases from its territory appears to be the most difficult
of these. Moscow still insists on 11 years it claims to require for
the withdrawal, but Tbilisi insistes that three years will suffice.
Georgian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nato Chikovani told us: “Russia
hasn’t even appointed a head of the expert team, despite our requests.”
Georgian experts hope that some way of dealing with the problem will
be found during the talks in Brussels, even though Scheffer never
misses a chance to emphasize that NATO has no intention of spoiling
its relations with Russia. “I take care of these relations and value
them,” he said the other day.
Azerbaijan is also active on its path to NATO. Azerbaijani officers
have attended the NATO Peacekeeping Operations courses. The exercise
took place in Oberammergau, a town in Georgia, within the framework
of NATO’s Partnership for Peace Program. The Best Effort exercise
will be organized in Azerbaijan this summer under NATO’s aegis.
Still, Azerbaijan is several steps behind Ukraine and Georgia on
its path to NATO, and membership is out of the question for the
time being. Judging by the West’s efforts, however, the situation
may change soon. A special agreement on closer contacts between NATO
and the government of Azerbaijan will be signed during the Istanbul
summit. Observers in Azerbaijan are apprehensive that this may have
a negative impact on Azerbaijan’s relations with Moscow. They point
out that the declaration signed by the governments of Russia and
Azerbaijan during President Ilham Aliyev’s recent visit to Moscow
states that cooperation between Russia and Azerbaijan must not
be directed against any other country. If things sour, however,
official Baku could use its most convincing argument in the dialogue
with Moscow. Azerbaijan itself is annoyed by the presence of Russian
military bases in Armenia, just like Moscow may be frustrated by the
activization of Baku’s relations with NATO.

ANSA
ANSA English Media Service
June 8, 2004
ART: CRYING ARMENIAN STONES IN VENICE
VENICE
(ANSA) – VENICE, June 8 – A documentary exhibition offering a journey
among the crying stones of Armenia, as poet Osip Mandelstam (1891-1938)
put it, will be held in the UNESCO Zorzi Palace in Venice between
June 8 and July 2, 2004.
The event was organised by the Centre for Documentary Research of
Armenian Culture CSDCA, the Unesco Venice-based Regional Bureau for
Science in Europe ROSTE and the Department for Eurasian Studies at
the Ca Foscari University.
The suggestive images shown in the exhibition illustrate in detail
a number of projects aimed at preserving and restoring Armenian
cultural heritage which have been already completed or are underway
in the country.
“The Armenian heritage is not only architectural, it is representative
of the Armenian culture in the broad sense of the term,” said Francis
Childe, Chief of the Asia/Pacific and Europe Section of UNESCO’s
Cultural Heritage Division.
The restoration works were carried out by Italian experts using
ancient techniques which also helped revive the local crafts sector.
The exhibition is divided into six sections which reconstruct the
historic and geographic context of the Armenian culture, show some of
the most famous examples of Armenian architecture, focus on important
construction techniques and preservation problems and deal with the
country’s efforts to document and preserve its cultural heritage and
also to encourage the development of local communities.
The last section is dedicated to the Armenian community in Venice,
present from 1715 onwards. Contacts between Venetians and Armenians
date back to the establishment of Venice. (ANSA). (BZ/krc)