Azerbaijan must take tough line on Karabakh exercises – expert

Zerkalo, Baku
4 Aug 04

Azerbaijan must react firmly to the Armenian-sponsored military
exercises that are now under way in Nagornyy Karabakh, military expert
Azad Isazada has stated in an article in the Azerbaijani newspaper
Zerkalo. Ultimately, he added, the conflict can only be resolved by
military means. The following is the text of C. Bayramova’s report by
Azerbaijani newspaper Zerkalo on 4 August headlined “Azerbaijan must
display firmness over the Karabakh issue” and subheaded “Otherwise our
country risks losing the seized territories forever, says a military
expert”:

The start of command staff exercises by the separatist military units
was announced yesterday in Nagornyy Karabakh.

For nine days, the armed formations of the Karabakh separatists will
demonstrate their so-called fighting capacity and ability to
coordinate military action in either offensive or defensive mode. It
should be recalled that Armenian President Robert Kocharyan announced
last month that military exercises by Armenian troops would be held
shortly in the eastern sector.

Naturally, the reaction from Azerbaijani experts to such a
high-profile event was not long in coming. Several of them think that
the Armenians’ demonstration of their military might is merely for
publicity purposes and is an attempt of sorts to test the
Azerbaijanis’ readiness to resolve the conflict by military means.

The military expert Azad Isazada has spoken on the subject to the
newspaper Zerkalo. He completely agrees that any exercises constitute
a show of force, adding that exhibiting their military capability
indicates yet another attempt by the separatists to display their will
to resist.

“Our country must certainly react in an extremely tough way.
Azerbaijan should present a demand to the other participants in the
exercises, stating that it is intolerable that they are being held on
the territory of Azerbaijan,” the expert thinks.

Nevertheless, he pointed out that Armenia is going to hold the
manoeuvres in the sector where shooting has broken out too frequently
over the past few months and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is being
laid. Thus, according to the expert, these actions can be seen as a
lever for Armenian military pressure on the whole South Caucasus.

There is, however, a universally accepted tactic for behaviour when a
hostile side is staging military exercises. The armed forces of
Azerbaijan that are deployed in the region must, therefore, be put on
full alert and the hardware, guns and manpower in their firing
positions must be activated. The expert did not omit to declare that
Azerbaijan should justify these measures by pointing to the fact that
the enemy’s military forces were concentrated right by the line of
confrontation in the seized lands.

In reply to the question of whether Robert Kocharyan was using the
military exercises to distract public attention in Armenia, where the
political situation was strained to the utmost, the expert said: “It
seems to me that the aim you describe is unlikely to be achieved
through these exercises. After all, it is external political pressure,
and it has no particular effect on the internal atmosphere within the
country. It may well be, though, that Kocharyan wants to show Armenia
that he has confidence in his forces. It’s as though he were saying
that he always has troops to hand to suppress any dissent. He is,
thus, putting psychological pressure on the opposition.”

Since he is also a military psychologist, Isazada sketched in a few
pointers as to the possible way in which Azerbaijani and world opinion
might perceive the separatists’ holding of exercises in Nagornyy
Karabakh. In his view, the world community would most likely do no
more than utter statements consisting of smooth phrases and well-worn
formulations to the effect that any escalation of the conflict was
unacceptable. As for Azerbaijani society, any show of force by Armenia
gives rise to perfectly justified aggression within it, particularly
among refugees. This, in turn, is accompanied by heightened tension,
which, in his view, could only be relieved by appropriate action by
Azerbaijan’s armed forces.

Incidentally, our interviewee is certain that the Karabakh conflict
can only be resolved by military means. In his view, sooner or later
there will be a resumption of hostilities, since any peaceful
resolution would inevitably involve Azerbaijani concessions that
would, in effect, entail the surrender of Karabakh.

“I am well informed about the mood of the generals and the higher
echelons of the Ministry of Defence. There too the view is held that
the conflict will never be resolved by peaceful means – not because
there could be no such solution, but because it simply does not
exist,” the expert commented.

Contract killings hit record high in Russia

Irish Times
Aug 05, 2004

Chris Stephen in Moscow

Russia: Contract killings in Russia have hit record levels, puncturing
the hope that the country has left the era of “gangster capitalism”
behind, according to a senior crime official here.

Between 500 and 700 Russians a year are killed by business rivals,
according to crime official Mr Leonid Kondratyuk, a top Interior
Ministry official.

The news comes a month after American journalist Paul Klebnikov,
editor of Forbes Russia, died in a hail of bullets fired by an
assassin in Moscow. Mr Kondratyuk told the Moscow Times that even his
estimate of 500 to 700 was conservative because it counted only those
murders definitely linked to organised crime, and that the true figure
could be “two to three times higher”.

His statement follows similar claims earlier this year by a former
prosecutor, Mr Valentin Stepankov, who said total crimes attributable
to mafia groups had passed the 25,000 mark in four years.

Russia attracted the nickname the “Wild East” in the 1990s, when
gangsters fought turf wars in the free-for-all that followed the end
of Communism.

The government hoped the arrival of tough central control from
President Vladimir Putin, coupled with rising prosperity, had put an
end to these murders, but this prosperity may actually be encouraging
a new wave of blood-letting.

Klebnikov was one of two journalists murdered in Moscow last month –
also killed was Paila Peloya, editor of an Armenian-language
newspaper, who, like Klebnikov, was shot dead in broad daylight. Since
Mr Putin took office in 2000, 15 journalists have been murdered, along
with six MPs and dozens of suspected gangster bosses.

Prominent killings include the shooting last summer of Igor Klimov,
chief of defence giant Almaz-Antei. The option of contract killing is
sometimes used as a last resort in business disputes. Typically, if a
firm refuses to honour its end of a contract, remedies such as going
to court may be useless, with judges sometimes bribed or the state law
simply unable to get back money owed.

The rise in contract killings comes despite a fall overall in recorded
crime. The number of murders in Russia fell 8 per cent last year,
though remained high at 16,240. Some doubt the official claims. Andrei
Konstantinov, a crime journalist with the Agency of Journalistic
Investigations in St Petersburg, said his interpretation of official
figures is that there are fewer contract killings, not more.

Konstantinov said police often know the identity of contract killers,
but lack evidence, and in particular witnesses, to bring the guilty to
court. He blames a collapse in moral values for the high level of gun
crime.

“It is wrong to blame the police or courts. You have to educate the
people that it is wrong, and the people in the state.”

But contract killings are not the sole preserve of the mafia. While
some killings are said to cost tens of thousands of dollars to
organise, at the other end of the spectrum a murder can be arranged
for as little as $300.

Russia’s media regularly report on husbands killing wives or
mothers-in-law by paying homeless people small amounts of money to
carry out the killings. These crimes are rarely solved because the
murderer has no connection to the victim.

Azer Tag, Azerbaijan State Info Agency
Aug 5 2004

AZERBAIJAN ADHERES EXPANSION OF ALL-ROUND CO-OP WITH KUWAIT
[August 05, 2004, 21:01:28]

Foreign minister of Azerbaijan Republic Elmar Mammadyarov on 5 August
met the delegation by the Minister of Religious Endowments And
Islamic Affairs of Kuwait Dr. Abdullah Maatouq Al-Maatouq.

As was stated by AzerTAj, greeting the guest, Minister Elmar
Mammadyarov stated that the current visit would be useful for
strengthening of friendly relations and religious affairs between
Kuwait and Azerbaijan and opening late current year of the embassy of
Azerbaijan in Kuwait would give a new impetus to development of
bilateral relations.

Dr. Abdullah Maatouq Al-Maatouq said the goal of the visit is to have
exchange of views on cooperation in numerous fields, including
relations with the Caucasus Clerical Office.

Minister Elmar Mammadyarov emphasized the importance of expansion of
all-round cooperation between Azerbaijan and Kuwait.

Touching upon the terror acts over the world, Mr. Mammadyarov stated
that Azerbaijan has subjected to 32 terror acts by Armenia. Noting
that terrorism is jeopardy for the entire humanity, the Minister said
that connection of terrorism with any religion is not expedient and
that Azerbaijan stands ready to render any assistance in combat
against terrorism together with the international community.

Dr. Abdullah Maatouq Al-Maatouq underlined that in the meetings with
believers of other religions he always supports necessity of
inter-religious dialogue, peace, establishments of friendship among
the peoples, organizes numerous conferences to contribute
coordination of efforts of the international communities in this
direction. Another conference is to be arranged shortly, he said.

Minister Elmar Mammadyarov updated the guests on Armenia-Azerbaijan,
Nagorny Karabakh conflict as a result of which over one million of
Azerbaijani have become refugees and IDPs and are living in hard
conditions. Minister Mammadyarov gratefully reminded that the State
of Kuwait has many times rendered humanitarian assistance, as well as
Kuwait holds unchangeable position in the question of settlement of
the Armenia-Azerbaijan, Nagorny Karabakh problem, especially noting
that the State of Kuwait supports territorial integrity and
sovereignty on the international organizations and in the frame of
Organization of Islamic Conference expressed gratitude to he
leadership of the friendly country.

In the meeting, also were discussed other questions of mutual
interest.

Eurasianet Organization
Aug 5 2004

CURRENCY FLUCTUATION CAUSES CONCERN IN ARMENIA
Haroutiun Khachatrian: 8/05/04

Rapid exchange-rate fluctuation, in which the Armenian currency has
significantly strengthened against the US dollar, is a source of
concern in Armenia. Many local economic observers suspect the
country’s currency market is being manipulated by speculators.

Following its introduction in 1993, the Armenian currency, the dram,
steadily declined in value against the US dollar – until this spring.
So far in 2004, the dollar has lost roughly 7 percent of its worth
versus the dram. Whereas early this year the exchange rate stood at
about 563 drams to the dollar, the rate is now hovering at about
520-to-one.

Many economists in Yerevan say there is no sound basis for the dram’s
appreciation, sparking suggestions that artificial pressure is
responsible for the sudden currency rate change. Most believe that
speculators are responsible for the recent fluctuation. The fact that
during a three-day span in mid July the exchange rate went from 520
drams to one US dollar to 495-to-one has helped fuel such suspicion.
The exchange rate shortly thereafter returned to the 520-to-one
level.

Concern about the exchange rate reached such a point that President
Robert Kocharian convened a special session of top government
economic officials to discuss ways to stabilize the dram. Meanwhile,
Central Bank officials said the dram’s appreciation is the result of
a dramatic rise in the influx of US dollars into Armenia. According
to the bank, there are three sources for rapid growth of dollars
circulating in the Armenian economy: an increase in exports; the
growth of the tourist industry; and significantly more cash
remittances coming into Armenia from Armenians living and working
abroad. Remittances have reportedly jumped 40 percent so far this
year over the same period in 2003.

Some economists now suggest Armenia is suffering from a form of
“Dutch disease” in which a country’s economy is overly dependent on
one export commodity, ultimately creating unfavorable exchange rates
that cause other economic sectors in the country to stagnate. In most
cases, those countries that have suffered from “Dutch disease” are
oil-and-gas exporters. In Armenia’s case, the country’s main export
appears to be skilled workers, who find work abroad and then ship
back a portion of their earning to relatives at home. [For background
see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Central Bank chairman Tigran Sargsian, in statements concerning the
exchange rate fluctuation, has downplayed the possibility of
manipulation by speculators. He also has expressed a preference for a
hands-off approach by the Central Bank, adding that, in his view, the
dram’s value is not near a point where it could frustrate exports.

The Central Bank position has been attacked by some economists. In an
interview published July 30 on the Iravunk web site, economist Eduard
Agajanov accused the Central Bank of negligence. In taking no action
on the exchange rate, the bank “forgets that the main goal of central
banks all over the world is to stabilize the currencies of their
countries,” said Agajanov, who formerly headed the State Statistics
Committee.

Agajanov said there were several options open to the Central Bank.
One way to prevent such sudden exchange rate fluctuations, he added,
would be for the Central Bank to increase the money supply to counter
the influx of dollars.

The dram’s sudden and unexpected rise could benefit the government.
The 2004 state budget was calculated on the basis of a dram-dollar
exchange rate in the range of 580-to-one. If the rate remains at
present levels, the government may have a far easier time keeping
spending levels within budgetary projections.

The flip side is that dollar’s loss in value has somewhat damaged
commerce inside the country, and has eroded the savings of many
Armenians. This is because many Armenians have a greater level of
trust in the dollar than in the national currency. A significant
number of business transactions in the country are calculated in
dollars, while roughly two-thirds of Armenian bank account holders
maintain their savings in the US currency. The drop in the dollar’s
value has caused many entrepreneurs to incur losses in recent months.

Some economists, including Agajanov, worry that the lack of Central
Bank action to stabilize the exchange rate may be setting Armenia up
for financial upheaval down the road. They point to the fact that the
amount of remittances coming into Armenia could fall just as fast as
they have risen in recent months, rendering it impossible to rely on
the dram’s current relative strength.

Agajanov predicted that the dram is headed for a crash. “One fine
day, when this [present-day] agitation subsides, the rate of the dram
will suddenly plummet, with all the negative consequences that will
ensue,” he said.

Editor’s Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a Yerevan-based writer
specializing in economic and political affairs.

American Daily, OH
Aug 5 2004

The Crusade
By Bruce Walker (01/27/2003)

President Bush was sharply criticized for initially describing
America’s war against evil as a crusade. Moslem nations, pundits
warned, would take offense at comparing this war to campaigns by
medieval Christians against Moslem military conquerors of the Holy
Lands. But of course President Bush used precisely the right term.

Christians, ever mindful of our own sins, often accept more guilt
than we should. The accusation that the crusaders killed exclusively
Jews in Jerusalem in 1099 has now been disproved by archeology. The
number killed has also been reduced from 70,000 Jews to 3,000 Moslems
and Jews. This is smaller than the massacre of Christians by Moslems
in Acre in 1291, and much less than 1.5 Million Armenians killed by
Moslems in the last century.

The `Golden Age’ of Moorish Spain was a myth: Berber conquest was
horrific for the people of Spain, and Moorish Spain was more often a
land of turmoil than tranquility. Christians were deported en masse
in 1126 to Morocco, and Jews were massacred in Grenada in 1066.

Christophobic Hollywood presents lurid films about the Salem Witch
Trials, ignoring key facts: (1) only twenty people out of the greater
number accused were actually hung as witches; (2) five years after
the trials, the Massachusetts general court offered public repentance
for these actions and deploring the action of the judges, (3) one
judge publicly confessed his sin from the pulpit; (4) the jurors who
convicted the alleged witches signed a statement of regret; and (5)
indemnity was offered to the family members of those who had been
executed.

Christophobes also ignore Christians at the end of the Seventeenth
Century began to oppose slavery. As a result, slavery was abolished
on English soil in 1772. Slavery existed all over the world and among
every religion and race until it was abolished throughout the British
Empire. African nations – Gambia, the Congo, and Dahomey – sent
official delegations to London to protest the British decision to
outlaw slavery.

`Intolerant’ Christians had earlier passed mankind’s first laws
banning cruelty to animals in 1641. Christians like Wilberforce and
Bergh were the world’s leaders in successful campaigns to prevent
cruelty to children, stop domestic violence, and promote equality for
women.

Christians know all too well that people pretending to embrace Jesus
have often failed to act like Christians. But the notion begun by
Marxists, supported by pagan nihilists in jaded Europe, and now
shouted loudly in Moslem countries – that Christians and Jews are the
author of all misery – is completely false. Serious devotion to the
moral and spiritual tradition of Jews and Christians is all that
separates mankind from Hell on Earth.

What is missing from the wretched realms of Iraq, Syria and Iran?
Christians free to preach the Gospel without fear of harm, and – at
least as importantly – without fear of harm to their flock. When Ann
Coulter wrote her `horrible’ column over a year ago, saying that we
should conquer the vicious lands of Islam and convert them all to
Christianity, she was right. The term `convert’ however, needs to be
understood in its true sense.

People are converted to Christianity when they are peacefully
approached and welcomed into the fellowship of Christians.
Missionaries, radical Moslems warn, are the most dangerous forces of
all. Why? Because they come with medicine, food and books. Christians
convert people with love, and Moslems convert people with terror.

Why did the most brutally efficient empire in human history, the
Roman Empire, become Christian? Because the meekness and kindness of
Christians attracted women in a way that no religion which viewed
sons as cannon fodder ever could. Because the spiritual truth of
Christianity inspired wise men in a way that the stale intellectual
systems of Greek philosophy could not. Because Christianity presented
a place to kneel and seek forgiveness for those soldiers who had
spent twenty years murdering and oppressing other peoples.

We need a new crusade. We need armies in Iraq, Syria, Sudan and
Libya, not because the people there should be converted by force to
any faith. We need armies because Christians who try to bring the
Gospel to the desperate peoples of those lands are being brutally
murdered along with their flock by those who cannot accept a God of
Love. Political freedom and market economies are good, but the
treasure that makes all other treasures real is not found in politics
or economics.

In 1940, when Churchill and FDR stood on the decks of HMS Prince of
Wales to announce that Hitler would not conquer the world, they sang
`Onward Christian Soldiers.’ When men huddled around campfires
steeling themselves to face an awful war to end slavery, they sang
`…as He died to make men holy, let us live to make men free.’ We
are in a war, and it is a holy war, but it is a righteous war. It is,
in fact, a crusade.

Bruce Walker has been a dyed in the wool conservative since, as a
sixth grader, he campaigned door to door for Barry Goldwater. Bruce
has had almost two hundred published articles have appeared several
professional and political periodicals.

Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA)
Aug 5 2004

Syrian-Armenian Committee / Concluding

Erivan, Aug 5 ( SANA )

The Syrian-Armenian joint Committee for scientific , trade and
economic cooperation, chaired by Economic and Trade Minister Ghassan
al-Refaee and the Armenian Minister of Agriculture Davit Lokain,
Thursday ended its 3rd session in the Armenian capital Erivan.

The two sides discussed aspects of cooperation in the trade,
investment , banking and finance fields, and means of enhancing the
trade exchange between Syria and Armenia in the transport, industry,
petroleum and agrarian fields.

They signed a number of agreements on health, medical sciences,
communications, tourism and information services.

RIA Novosti, Russia
Aug 5 2004

ILLEGAL DIAMOND, EMERALD TRADE CHANNEL SHUT IN BASHKIRIA

UFA, AUGUST 5 (RIA Novosti) – Operation of a criminal ring engaged
for a long time in illegal gemstones trade has been ended in
Bashkiria (federal republic in the southern Urals), the press service
of the FSB directorate for Bashkiria informed on Thursday.

According to the FSB, several residents of Sterlitamak arranged the
channel of delivery of diamonds and emeralds from fields in Siberia
and the Ural region.

The FSB has carried out the operation “check purchase”, placing its
agent as a wholesale buyer.

As a result, three persons have been detained, and natural diamonds
and an emerald (total weight 35 grammes, or 150 carats) were seized.
On fact of the illegal turnover the republican prosecutor’s office
has begun a criminal case.

Investigation has found that, alongside illegal trade in gemstones in
Bashkiria, the group arranged their transportation to the Krasnodar
region to be smuggled out to Armenia for cutting.

The criminals brought in gems themselves or through couriers. Their
close relatives were engaged in this or that way, selling gems or
securing the deals, the FSB press service said. The network
functioned smoothly for three years.

AzerNews
Aug 5 2004

Police thwart opposition picket

Some 30 members of the Whole Azerbaijan Popular Front Party (WAPFP)
attempted to hold an action in front of the Foreign Ministry at about
noon on Monday protesting the participation of Armenian officers in
the NATO training sessions due in Baku in September. The action was
not sanctioned by the Mayor’s Office of Baku.

40 police officers prevented the protesters holding slogans, “Death
to aggressor”, “Respect for our state and nation”, “Take Armenian
criminals to international court”, from approaching the Ministry
building. The police also prevented the protesters from reading out a
declaration they adopted but allowed them to submit it to the
ministry. WAPFP initially intended to hold similar protest actions in
front of several ministries and embassies of NATO member-states in
Baku, including the USA, Great Britain, France, Germany, Poland,
Italy and Greece, before August 10.

The party members also plan to hold a picket in front of the Ministry
of Justice demanding that their party be registered.

Mayor sued
However, on Tuesday WAPFP postponed the protest actions for three
days. The party has sued Mayor of Baku Hajibala Abutalibov following
the refusal of the mayor’s office to sanction the actions. According
to the WAPFP deputy chairman Elchin Mirzabayli, the lawsuit was filed
to the Sabayil district court on the grounds that the Mayor violated
the provisions of the law on freedom of gatherings. Mirzabayli added
that the court does not issue a fair ruling, the party will continue
protest actions. WAPFP, founded early this year, along with two other
entities, the Popular Front Party “reformers” and the Popular Front
Party “classics”, considers itself the legal successor of the Popular
Front Party of Azerbaijan (PFPA), which was chaired by the
ex-president of Azerbaijan Abulfaz Elchibay prior to his demise.
WAPFP is currently chaired by parliament member Gudrat Hasanguliyev.

ArmenPress
Aug 5 2004

SECRETARY GENERAL OF COUNCIL OF EUROPE REGRETTED ABOUT ELECTIONS IN
NAGORNO KARABAKH

STRASBOURG, AUGUST 5, ARMENPRESS: Referring to the previous call
by Council of Europe leaders to refrain from staging one-sided “local
self-government elections” in Nagorno-Karabakh, Walter Schwimmer,
Secretary General of the 45-nation Council of Europe, regretted that
elections would again be held in the province on 8 August 2004.
“One-sided actions are counter-productive. The future status of
Nagorno-Karabakh must be decided through negotiations”, said Mr.
Schwimmer, who confirmed that the Council of Europe fully supports
the efforts undertaken to this end by the “Minsk Conference” under
the auspices of the OSCE. “I further welcome the recently revived
contacts at the highest political level by Armenia and Azerbaijan to
find a peaceful solution to the conflict, as well as the efforts by
the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe to foster
parliamentary co-operation in the region”, added Mr. Schwimmer.

ArmenPress
Aug 5 2004

ARMENICUM WIDELY TESTED IN INDIA

YEREVAN, AUGUST 5, ARMENPRESS: Armenicum is considered the best
medicine against AIDs. One week ago it was massively tested in India,
Armenian defense minister Serj Sargssian said adding that the number
of people using the medicine totals to several dozen thousands in
India.
The minister noted that tests are over in Russia which passed
under the supervision of Russian Health Ministry. He voiced his hope
that by September Russia will also register the medicine. He said the
leading specialists in medical science prove the role and
significance of Armenicum.