IAGS Energy Security
Institute for the Analysis of Global Security
Nov. 5, 2004
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline: not yet finished and already threatened
The long-delayed 1000-mile Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline to
transport 1 million barrels of oil a day from the Caspian to the
Turkish port of Ceyhan is progressing toward completion as early as
2005. But even before the construction is finished, terrorist elements
may already be planning attacks on this high quality target.
According to Azerbaijan’s National Security Minister, Namiq Abbasov,
the country’s special services had obtained information that regional
insurgents and members of al Qaeda are planning acts of sabotage
designed to derail construction of the pipeline. If true, this means
that the BTC, which traverses some of the world’s most unstable
regions, could be a target of a new terrorist campaign to disrupt the
flow of much needed oil from the Caspian Sea to Western markets. The
pipeline could provide livelihood for many people in Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Armenia as well as stimulate economic activity in eastern
Turkey, and it will make a contribution to enhancing world energy
security by developing a non-OPEC oil source. Therefore, failure of the
countries involved to ensure the security of the project will have
severe implications on the future of the region as well as global
energy markets at large.
Who has an interest in damaging the pipeline? Of all the countries in
the region Iran is perhaps the state actor with the strongest
motivation to impede the BTC project. Engulfed by U.S. forces in both
its neighbors Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran is agitated by growing U.S.
military presence in Central Asia and views the U.S. led war on terror
as an American pretext to penetrate the region and seize control over
Caspian oil. To disrupt the flow of oil in the BTC pipeline Iran could
use its web of proxies and the terrorist groups it sponsors. Iran is
not only a major oil producing country but also a stepping stone
between the Caspian region and the Persian Gulf. As such, it would like
to see Caspian oil flowing through its territory rather than through
Turkey. It is therefore offering an alternative route which runs from
Kashagan and Tengiz oil fields in Kazakhstan along the eastern Caspian
shore, through Turkmenistan and on to the Iranian border. From there
the pipeline would run across the eastern part of Iran to the Persian
Gulf terminal at Bandar Abbas. If the construction of the BTC pipeline
is completed and the pipeline operates well, it will make very little
sense for Iran to carry out its plan. However, if the flow of oil in
the BTC pipeline is interrupted due to sabotage, there will be strong
incentive for major oil companies to seek an alternative route.
Other players who would like to see the project fail are terrorist
groups operating along the pipeline route. Such groups strive to weaken
the governments they oppose by denying them revenue from the pipeline.
The Turks, for example, are a long way away from reaching a settlement
with the Kurds and are involved in fighting with the Kurdish Workers’
Party (PKK). Until the Kurdish issue is resolved, Kurdish groups might
want to derail the project. The PKK has already attacked pipelines as
recently as last month. Turkish television reported that on October 24
a remote controled device was detonated on a pipeline in the Garzan
region. Two days later the PKK bombed an oil pipeline in southeastern
Turkey. In addition there is increasing threat by Islamist groups
operating in the Caucasus such as the Islamic Party of Eastern
Turkestan, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Chechen
separatists and Hizb-ut-Tahrir al-Islami. The later group seeks to
seize power and supplant existing governments with Sharia-based
Caliphate for the purpose of jihad against the west. The head of the
Kazakh National Security Committee Nartai Dutbayev said that the Hizb
has recently increased its clandestine activities in Kazakhstan and
poses “a real threat to Kazakhstan’s security.” In early September,
Kazakhstan’s President, Nursultan Nazarbayev, publicly admitted that
Hizb-ut-Tahrir is making significant inroads in his country.
In the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh the conflict between
Armenian and Azeris still goes on. Armenian nationalists might decide
to attack the BTC in order to hurt Azerbaijan, which derives most of
its income from oil sales.
Much of the stability along the BTC corridor would depend on Russia.
Russia is not supportive of BTC. It sees it as a U.S. plot to gain
control over the Caucasus and cut all links between Moscow of the
former Soviet states, building an economic infrastructure that would
prevent the former Soviet states to ever reunite with Russia. Moscow
also views BTC as a way to weaken its position as major supplier of oil
to the European markets. In a recent article at Asia Times Online, John
Helmer refers to the BTC project as an effort `to redraw the geography
of the Caucasus on an anti-Russian map.’
Another problem BTC poses Russia has to do with its tense relations
with Georgia. As it is, the Georgia suffers from many domestic
problems: it is emerging from a civil war and is rife with corruption,
but perhaps its most serious problem is the growing likelihood of war
with Russia over the two breakaway territories of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia. The August 8 Moscow News quotes Georgian leader Mikheil
Saakashvili: `If war begins it will be a war between Georgia and
Russia, not between the Georgians and Ossetians. … We are very close to
a war [with Russia], the population must be prepared.’
As a result of the above Russia will not shed tears if BTC is
sabotaged. It might even clandestinely lend its hand to groups that
might do just that. Russia might also team up with Iran in an effort to
promote the alternative route southward out of the Caspian to the
Persian Gulf.
If Russia decides to undermine the project, this will surely have
implications on its relations with the U.S. BTC is the linchpin of the
shift in U.S. energy policy away from the Middle East and it is in
America’s best interest that the project succeeds. Secretary of Energy
Spencer Abraham called the project `one of the most important energy
undertakings from America’s point of view.’ U.S. Special Forces are
already training 1,500-2,000 Georgian soldiers in `anti-terrorism’
techniques under a $64 million program initiated in May 2002. In
addition, the U.S. provided the Georgian army with new combat
helicopters and other weapons. The 17,000 strong Georgian military has
many tasks related to the defense of the country from external enemies
such as Russia and Armenia but if attacks against the Georgian section
of the BTC pipeline are mounted the Georgian military will have to take
on the role of protecting the pipeline against saboteurs.
Azerbaijan is another country along the pipeline route which stands in
the center of U.S. diplomacy in Central Asia. In early August, U.S.
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld visited Azerbaijan, where he
concluded an agreement on the deployment of American forces to the
former Soviet republic. This despite a recently adopted law which
forbids foreign military forces on Azeri soil. U.S. military
specialists have already conducted preliminary examinations of
airfields in Kyurdamir, Nasosny, and Gala, and have commenced the
installation of long-range mobile radars in Sanchagal, near the
pipeline. General Charles Ward, the Deputy Commander of the U.S.
European Command, revealed in a Senate hearing that `provisionally
deployed mobile forces’ will soon patrol the BTC.
The BTC pipeline could be as strong as its weakest link. An attack on
the pipeline in any place along its route will hurt not only the
country where the attack took place but also the other countries which
benefit from it. This is why multinational cooperation to secure the
pipeline is of particular importance. On August 21, the armed forces of
Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Georgia embarked on a series of joint military
exercises in the Azeri capital of Baku. The goal of the six-day
maneuvers was to strengthen coordination and cooperation among the land
forces of the three nations in preparation for defending the BTC from a
terror attack. According to Natig Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan’s
State Oil Company, $170 million have already been spent on safeguarding
the pipeline. In addition, unlike many other pipelines around the
world, BTC will be fully buried and its pumping stations will be
surrounded by walls and fences.
But as the sabotage campaign in Iraq, in which to date oil and gas
pipelines have been attacked more than 150 times, shows, investment in
physical security is not enough to secure oil infrastructure. Pipelines
are long and vulnerable and a determined terrorist would always succeed
in blowing it up somewhere along its route. If BTC were to succeed this
would be mainly due to active diplomacy to resolve the lingering
conflicts in the region and address the grievances of those who want to
see this significant project failing.
Gal Luft is Executive Director of the Institute for the Analysis of
Global Security.

Baku Today
Nov. 5, 2004
Four Caucasus Countries’ Railway Companies to Establish a Joint Venture
Russian Transport Minister Igor Levitin said on Wednesday that Russia,
Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan are going to establish a joint venture
to restore Transcaucasian railway network.
He said the decision has been taken during the negotiations between
leaders of three republics of the region.
“Three countries’ presidents confirmed they are ready to consider the
scheme of creation of operator company proposed by the transport
ministries,” said Levitin. “We understand that signing of the agreement
between four countries is a difficult matter from political viewpoint
and we offered to create the operator company, which will manage the
traffic.”
Azerbaijan state railway refused to give any comments on the
above-mentioned statement made by Russian Minister.

Watertown TAB & Press, MA
Nov. 5, 2004
A first time for everything
By Monica Deady/ Staff Writer
Armen Kalemkiarian waited more than 45 years to vote in an election in
the United States.

And on Oct. 27, Kalemkiarian, 78, who came to the United States
from Soviet Armenia 51 years ago, voted for the first time.

“I wasn’t happy with this man [President Bush] so I decided to
change,” said Kalemkiarian.

Born in Egypt, Kalemkiarian lived in India and Soviet Armenia
before moving to the United States. Five years after moving here, she
became a U.S. citizen, but never registered to vote.

“I don’t know the reason really,” she said. “I was happy how I
was.”

Kalemkiarian, who worked as a secretary at John Hancock and taught
Armenian school at night, said when she retired she thought she could
live peacefully, but the mix of events in the United States, including
rising health-care costs, job loss and the war in Iraq, made her feel
like she should vote. Kalemkiarian voted for Sen. John Kerry.

“We don’t speak about politics very much in our house because we
don’t want to make people against each other,” said Kalemkiarian, but
said her daughter was a big encouragement in getting her to vote. She
registered on the last day possible, Oct. 13.

Kalemkiarian joined about 137,000 other Massachusetts voters who
registered from Aug. 25, the close of registration for the September
primaries, to Oct. 13, according to Brian McNiff, spokesman for
Secretary of State William Galvin

Massachusetts has nearly 4.1 million voters registered for this
election.

Ruth Thomasian, Kalemkiarian’s co-worker at the Armenian photo
archive organization Project Save, said she knows so many people have
been encouraging Kalemkiarian to vote for several years, adding that
she was “absolutely excited” that she had finally registered.

Prior to this year, Thomasian said Kalemkiarian would say her vote
didn’t make a difference.

“We all came and hugged her and congratulated her…” Thomasian
said.

Kalemkiarian voted last week at Town Hall, and said she it was
exciting, but she was nervous she would make a mistake.

“I’m very happy,” she said. “I can sleep very well, but if I get a
good result I’ll be happier,” she said before Tuesday’s election.

Kalemkiarian would not see her candidate elected to the White
House. But her vote was counted.

Kazinform, Kazakhstan
Nov. 5, 2004
NATO chief to visit Azerbaijan, Armenia.
Astana – Baku / Yerevan, November 5 KAZINFORM — NATO Secretary General
Jaap de Hoop Scheffer will hold negotiations with the leadership of
Azerbaijan Friday and will then fly to Armenia.
The NATO chief, who arrived in Azerbaijan Thursday from Georgia on a
tour of South Caucasus, will meet Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev,
First Deputy Prime Minister Yagub Eyubov in charge of cooperation with
the alliance, and Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov.
Diplomatic sources in Bakusaid the talks would focus on expanded ties
between Azerbaijan and NATO both in the framework of the Partnership
for Peace plan and the program of individual cooperation. The parties
will also discuss the fight against terrorism within the international
coalition, Kazinform refers to Itar-Tass.
Another topic will be the preparation for a seminar of the NATO
Parliamentary Assembly on the situation in South Caucasus scheduled in
Baku in the end of November.
Jaap de Hoop Scheffer will then proceed to Armenia to meet the leaders
of the republic and enhance the positions of the alliance in the
country. He said the alliance is ready to work with all the countries
of South Caucasus on the basis of their priorities.
He stressed in an interview that Armenia is a proof that any country
may develop close relations with Russia and simultaneously be an active
NATO partner.

Shreveport Times, LA
Nov. 5, 2004
Exchange students learn Bossier Parish judicial system
By Loresha Wilson
[email protected]
By Loresha Wilson
[email protected]
Fatima Ibrahimova asked how inmates get married while incarcerated. She
wanted to know if law enforcement officers are ever arrested and if
anyone has escaped from the Bossier Parish Jail.
Heghine Kosakyan questioned whether men and women share the same cell
blocks and if an inmate’s living condition is based on the nature of
the crime committed.
Ibrahimova and Kosakyan, both 17, are foreign exchange students who,
through the Aspect Foundation, received scholarships from the U.S.
State Department to study democracy and the criminal justice system in
the United States. They, along with two other scholars, live in
different areas of Indiana, but for the next couple of days will spend
time in the Shreveport/Bossier City area visiting a local outreach
mission, delivering goods to a homeless shelter and volunteering at a
nursing home.
On Thursday, the group spent a half day touring the Bossier Parish
sheriff’s office and learning the daily operations of the office. Ed
Baswell, sheriff’s spokesman, showed the students around the courthouse
and it’s maximum security jail and they also visited the Bossier Parish
Penal Farm and the parish’s 600-bed medium security facility in Plain
Dealing, where they stood in the control room and watched about 80
female inmates who share two cell blocks. The women eat together,
shower together and sleep together, which was strange to the students.
`This is a little different than where I am from,’ Kosakyan, of
Armenia, said. `In my country there are people who are in jail and
can’t watch TV. There are only four to five people to a cell and they
have their private bathrooms. Here they have no privacy.’
The group also met an investigator with the district attorney’s office
and set in on a couple of court procedures.
Hasmik Sukiasyan, also of Armenia, was curious if the electric chair is
used for execution in Bossier Parish, then asked how often the inmates
eat.
The girls were four of 300 students awarded scholarships for the
program out of 54,000 applicants, said Jayme Tunis, Indiana regional
development director for the Aspect Foundation. They were chosen for
their academic, civil, and leadership abilities, and are most likely to
become future leaders of free nations once under communist control. The
students spend 10 months in America learning about democracy, community
service, government, cultural diversity and more, Tunis said. Upon
returning to their native countries, they will serve on a panel for
three years discussing their experiences here.
`They have superior IQs,’ Tunis said. `These girls are studying to be
future leaders of their countries. It is hoped that the ideals and
doctrines they experience here in America will enable them to implement
the same in their own countries.’
Ibrahimova, of Azerbaijan, plans to study international law. She speaks
six different languages, but says she’ll return to her native country
to attend college.
`I want to be an attorney,’ she said. `Right now I’m learning
everything I can in case I come back to the United States. I read a lot
of books about the criminal justice system here, and things are pretty
much like what I have read. It’s great.’
Kosakyan and Jasmin Grund of Germany also plan to study law. Sukiasyan,
16, wants to be a doctor.
Ibrahimova said, `I didn’t expect the people here to answer all the
questions I had, but they did.’

Denver Post, CO
Nov. 5, 2004
Officials detain Armenian family fighting to stay in U.S.
By Nancy Lofholm
Denver Post Staff Writer

Four weeping members of an Armenian family that has fought for five
years to stay in America were taken into custody Thursday morning for
deportation.
Ruben, Gevorg, Meri and Hayk Sargsyan were incarcerated by U.S.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials in Aurora over the
objections of their attorney, Jeff Joseph.
Joseph said that immigration officials are ignoring a 2001 law creating
special visas for immigrants who have been victims of human trafficking
or violence.
Joseph said he has asked for help from U.S. Sen. Wayne Allard, and if
that fails, he plans to take the matter to federal court.
“This is an absolutely overzealous interpretation of the law,” Joseph
said.
He has filed for the special visas for the Sargsyans, claiming that
they were victimized when they came to the United States with student
visas in 1999.
Immigration officials have told The Denver Post that the family’s legal
challenges have been exhausted, and it’s time for them to return to
Armenia.
The Sargsyans came to the Western Slope town of Ridgway after the
eldest Sargsyan daughter, Nvart, married American Vaughn Huckfeldt. The
Sargsyans allege that Huckfeldt abused his wife and took money from a
number of other Armenians in the family’s hometown of Yerevan,
promising he would obtain visas for them. He left with the money, the
Sargsyans said, and those who had been duped blamed the Sargsyans for
Huckfeldt’s actions.
Huckfeldt eventually obtained visas for the Sargsyan family but
reported them for being in the country on the wrong type of visa after
Nvart filed for divorce.
The Sargsyans say they fear persecution – even execution – by the
Russian Mafia if they are sent back to Armenia.
Joseph said that when his clients turned themselves over Thursday,
officials refused to look at a petition signed by 1,500 Ouray County
residents who urged that the Sargsyans be allowed to stay in the U.S.
Pete Whiskeman, a Ridgway businessman who spearheaded the petition
drive, said the family has done everything in its power to conform with
the law.
“But Immigration appears to be acting above the law.”

Azer Tag, Azerbaijan
Nov. 5, 2004
STATEMENT OF PRESS SERVICE OF THE PRESIDENT OF AZERBAIJAN REPUBLIC
[November 05, 2004, 15:37:57]
President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev at the President
Palace has met the NATO Secretary General Yaap de Hoop Scheffer, on
November 5.
In the course of meeting, President of Azerbaijan highly assesses the
visit of the Secretary General of NATO from the point of view of
development of the relations between this Organization and the Country.
Head of the Azerbaijani State with great pleasure emphasized constant
strengthening and expansion of cooperation with NATO which plays great
role in ensuring establishment of links with the Euro-Atlantic
structures, including peace and security in Europe. Noting that
Azerbaijan actively takes part in the `Partnership for Peace’ program
of this Organization, President Ilham Aliyev underlined current
realization of concrete affairs on the ground of the plan of individual
partnership with NATO. Stating that relevant structures of the Republic
carry out certain activities in this connection, President of
Azerbaijan expressed confidence for further development of the
Azerbaijan-NATO relations.
Mr. Yaap de Hoop Scheffer expressed pleasure with the meeting with
President Ilham Aliyev, noting the latest visit of Azerbaijan President
to Brussels was successful. Highly appreciating constant development of
the relations between NATO and Azerbaijan, the Secretary General
stressed that the Country is one of the active partners of this
Organization. Mr. Scheffer said he is convinced that the relations
between Alliance and the Country would further strengthen and expand.
At the meeting, also were exchanged views on issues of international
and regional safety, settlement of the Armenia-Azerbaijan, Nagorny
Karabakh conflict and other issues of mutual interest.

Azer Tag, Azerbaijan
Nov. 5, 2004
PRESIDENT OF AZERBAIJAN ILHAM ALIYEV RECEIVES OSCE MINSK GROUP
CO-CHAIR, AMBASSADOR STEVEN MANN
[November 05, 2004, 17:02:07]
President of Azerbaijan Republic Ilham Aliyev at the President Palace
has received OSCE Minsk group co-chair, ambassador Steven Mann, on
November 5.
Greeting the US diplomat, Head of the Azerbaijan State with great
pleasure recalled his meeting with Mr. Mann on October 16 current year
in the Aghstafa district of Azerbaijan, during ceremony of welding of
the Azerbaijan and Georgia sections of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan MEP.
Giving high value to welding of the pipeline, President Ilham Aliyev
stated that realization of the BTC project serves regional cooperation,
ensuring peace and safety.
Mr. Steven Mann expressed pleasure with the chance to meet again
President Ilham Aliyev. He evaluated welding of the pipeline at the
Azerbaijan-Georgia borders as a landmark event and gratefully recalled
the meeting with the Head of Azerbaijan State.
At the meeting, also discussed were other global and regional
questions, solution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan, Nagorno Karabakh
conflict, as well as a number of other issues representing mutual
interest.
Ambassador of the United States to Azerbaijan Republic Rino Harnish
attended the reception.

Interfax
Nov. 5, 2004
NATO secretary general to discuss cooperation prospects with Armenia
Yerevan. (Interfax-AVN) – NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer
will discuss prospects of bilateral cooperation of the Alliance and
Armenia during his visit in Yerevan scheduled for Friday.
Assistant Secretary General for Public Diplomacy Jean Fournet told
reporters in Yerevan that the secretary general would like to discuss
issues pertaining to more active involvement of Armenia in NATO’s
Partnership for Peace program.
He said that it is often required to meet the leader of the country at
home to feel and understand the country proper and the position of its
leader.
He recalled that NATO included the South Caucasus into the sphere of
its strategic interests, and added that the Alliance has enjoyed rapid
development of the relations with countries in the region.
As of now, he said, NATO offers its partners to develop an own plan of
individual cooperation with the Alliance to make it possible for them
to cooperate with the organization to the extent they want.
He added that a liaison officer in the South Caucasus is expected to be
appointed soon.
The NATO secretary general already appointed a NATO representative in
the South Caucasus.
Armenian leadership has repeatedly been saying that the country is
looking forward to deeper cooperation with the Alliance. According to
Yerevan, such cooperation will in no way affect the Russian-Armenian
military and strategic partnership.

BISNIS Trades & Tenders
10/08/04 – 11/05/04
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This issue of BISNIS Trades & Tenders includes opportunities in:
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transactions seeking financing to organizations open to financing
business activities in the region. Please see:
**
*********************
AGRIBUSINESS LEADS
MSM Group – Sausage casings – Yerevan, Armenia
For more information on the Agribusiness Sector in the NIS, please
contact Charles Raether at BISNIS at [email protected]
**************************************
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Tbilisi LLC – Unrefined soybean oil, Yerevan Armenia
For more information on the Food Products and Services Sector in the
NIS, please contact Charles Raether at BISNIS at
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