ARMENIA WILL ENJOY AN OBSERVER STATUS

A1+
24-11-2004

Today Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan left for Burkina Faso
to partake in the 10th International Summit of Francophone.

It is envisaged in the Summit to grant Armenia the status of an
observer in that international organization. Armenia is already
enrolled in some international structures neighbouring with
Francophone such as International Union of France-speaking Capitals
and International Assembly of France-speaking Parliamentarians.

Status of an observer, later of a full member enables Armenia to enter
in contacts within the organization and to establish cooperation is
some spheres with tens of states in African Continent.

ARMENIA: ITALY OPENS NEW REFUGEE CENTRE

(ANSA) – YEREVAN, November 24 – Seen from a distance and in the snow
storm, the sweep of small yellow domes which float in the fog seems
unreal but when you approach the harsh reality with small metal
or clay brick shelters without windows that look like cattle sheds
covered with hay to protect them from the cold hits you.

   This village on the outskirts of Yerevan is where some 20,000
Armenian refugees, who fled Azerbaijan in the 1990s after the bloody
secessionist war against the Azeri government started by the Armenian
community in Nagorno-Karabakh, currently live. They are part of
the hundreds of thousands evacuees, victims of ethnic conflicts and
territorial contests who float in the Caucasus and are often held on
the brink of survival by their own nations.

   The Italian government has been carrying out a humanitarian
aid programme in the three Caucasian states Armenia, Georgia and
Azerbaijan, and Italian Deputy Foreign Minister Margherita Boniver
inaugurated on Tuesday a new centre for rehabilitation of refugees
donated by Italy.

   A small crowd of freezing children waving the Italian flag welcomed
the arrival of the Italian delegation in an obviously very important
event in their life of misery and isolation. They were shouting “Ciao,
Ciao” alongside the muddy street.

   A few short speeches were delivered outdoors in front of the
building with sewing machines, kitchen and emergency equipment and
accompanied by a band musicians in traditional costumes playing
tambourines and flutes.

   The new centre is part of a 60,000 euro aid programme.

   “This is yet another proof of the close relations between Italy
and the Armenian population,” Boniver said underlining the importance
of the humanitarian aspects of the programme.

   From a political point of view the Italian government maintains
an absolutely neutral position towards the Nagorno-Karabakh issue.

   “Karabakh is Armenian, it is the heart of our nation,” one of the
refugees, Georgy, who has fought in this war and later was forced
to leave the Azerbaijan capital of Baku with his family, said. “The
Azeri cannot take it from us shielding themselves behind a decision
taken by Stalin.”

   Now Georgy is waiting in the Yerevan refugee camp for something
to happen. The way to Baku seems closed and probably he will end up
in the diaspora abroad like a million other

–Boundary_(ID_Ov2PFNCX2GHjRGZd7fJ3OQ)–

UN turns down Azerbaijan-proposed resolution on Karabakh – Armenian TV

Public Television of Armenia, Yerevan
24 Nov 04

The UN General Assembly did not hold discussions on a special
resolution on the situation on the occupied territories [Nagornyy
Karabakh]. International news agencies are describing the developments
in the UN as the failure of Azerbaijani diplomacy.

Armen Martirosyan, Armenia’s permanent representative in the UN, told
a UN General Assembly session that Azerbaijan, which has initiated the
draft resolution concerning human rights and norms of international
law, itself does not keep to these values. The Armenian representative
stressed once again that Nagornyy Karabakh has never been part of
independent Azerbaijan and that the Artsakh [Karabakh] people exercised
their right to live independently and safely on their own land.

Armen Martirosyan noted that the Azerbaijani sides’ resolution includes
selectively references to the UN’s basic concepts. The document says
nothing about people’s right to self-determination.

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov noted that the UN
General Assembly discussed the same issue 11 years ago and expressed
support to the efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group to settle the conflict,
but these efforts have yielded no result.

Speaking on behalf of the Minsk Group, which includes the USA, France
and Russia, US ambassador (?Susan Moore) said that talks on the
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict settlement within the framework of the
Minsk Group had yielded positive results. Moore said that progress in
the peaceful negotiations could be reached only by building confidence
between the conflicting sides.

PRESS RELEASE
Eastern Prelacy of the Armenian Apostolic Church of America
138 East 39th Street
New York, NY 10016
Tel: 212-689-7810
Fax: 212-689-7168
e-mail: [email protected]
Website:
Contact: Iris Papazian

November 23, 2004

NEW ENGLAND REGIONAL ADULT SEMINAR
FOCUSES MARRIAGE AND FAMILY IN THE 21ST CENTURY

NEW YORK, NY – The E. Kent Swift Mansion, a turn of the century estate in
Whitinsville, Massachusetts, was the beautiful New England Autumn setting
for a group of over 30 people who attended an ecumenical regional retreat
entitled “We Are Family,” sponsored by the Armenian Religious Education
Council (AREC) of the Eastern Prelacy of the Armenian Apostolic Church of
America on October 23, 2004.

Participants from Watertown, Providence, North Andover, Springfield,
Worcester, and Whitinsville first enjoyed a beautiful morning service
performed by Rev. Fr. Aram Stepanian of Whitinsville, Archpriest Fr.
Antranig Baljian of Watertown, Rev. Fr. Vartan Kassabian of North Andover,
and Deacon Shant Kazanjian, Executive Director of AREC.

Following the morning service, all listened to a PowerPoint presentation
given by Der Antranig, which focused on the Seven Armenian Sacraments,
especially highlighting the Sacrament of Marriage. Der Antranig discussed
the Sacrament of Marriage by explaining the Biblical significance and the
symbolism of the wedding ceremony.

The next topic focused on developing closeness in marriage. This segment was
presented by Dr. Joseph Lombardi who has a Ph.D. in Counseling Psychology
from the University of Notre Dame. Dr. Lombardi has been in Christian
counseling since 1981 and has spoken at a number of churches and Christian
conferences since then. Dr. Lombardi began his presentation by focusing on
Genesis 2:24-25 as he talked about intimacy in marriage. He then discussed
ways to achieve closeness, especially by way of spending quality time with
each other and sharing personal thoughts and feelings on a regular basis.
Some discussion focused on obstacles that get in the way of closeness,
especially fear of the unknown, as we looked at Genesis 3:6-10. How to deal
with fear was examined first citing 1 John 4:18 and then discussing the
experience of perfect family love.

Dr. Lombardi then turned his attention to Ephesians 4:26 as he began to
discuss conflict resolution and the role that anger plays in every day
family life. Dr. Lombari led the group in an informative self-assessment
exercise to help determine an individual’s conflict resolution style.
Galations 5:22 was then read as the participants talked about collaboration
and the stages of conflict resolution. The session ended with a reading
from Matthew 6:14 as the topic turned to forgiveness and what happens to
persons when they do not forgive.

The participants were then divided into three teams of nine or ten people
charged with discussing their own conflict resolution style and whether it
was effective in family situations and encounters.

“Creating a Close Family,” was discussed by Dr. Paul Bombara, a clinical
psychologist whose focus and area of expertise is on marriage and family
issues. He stressed the importance of the whole person model when it comes
to stabilizing the marriage and family unit. Dr. Bombara began his
presentation with Genesis 1:28 as he talked about the components that make
up a strong family. These components consisted of commitment to each other,
spending time together, good family communication, expressing appreciation
to each other, having spiritual commitment, and being able to solve problems
in a crisis.

Dr. Bombara presented the attributes of a sustainable family that has
cohesion (a feeling of emotional closeness with other family members),
flexibility (the ability to change its power structure, roles and rules when
needed), and communication (a major key in creating, supporting,
maintaining, or destroying a family).

Dr. Bombara’s final topic focused on handling conflict and discipline of
children. Important reminders included staying calm, avoiding criticism,
not focusing on the negatives all of the time, giving rewards and praise,
being a good role model, and providing a loving and safe environment. He
concluded by offering discipline techniques and tips for parenting.

In order to evaluate the retreat, an evaluation form was provided for
participants to express their opinion of the event. Many expressed that
they really didn’t know what to expect before arriving at the retreat, but
walked away very satisfied, informed, and pleased that the Prelacy sponsored
such a thought-provoking seminar. Participants truly enjoyed the beautiful
setting, food, fellowship, and presentations of all the speakers and are all
looking forward to future retreats of this nature.

PRESS OFFICE
Diocese of the Armenian Church of America (Eastern)
630 Second Avenue, New York, NY 10016
Contact: Jake Goshert, Coordinator of Information Services
Tel: (212) 686-0710 Ext. 60; Fax: (212) 779-3558
E-mail: [email protected]
Website:

November 24, 2004
___________________

INVITATION OF CATHOLICOS YEILDS HIGHLY PRODUCTIVE TRIP

>>From November 4 to 11, 2004, member of the Eastern Diocesan Council,
headed by Archbishop Khajag Barsamian, Primate, traveled to Armenia at
the invitation of His Holiness Karekin II, Supreme Patriarch and
Catholicos of All Armenians.

The meetings started on the morning of the November 4, when the Diocesan
Council members knelt at the Altar of Descent in Holy Etchmiadzin and
prayed together, expressing their gratitude to God for their
opportunities. Following that was an audience with the Catholicos, who
welcomed the council members.

During a meeting with the Supreme Religious Council — presided over by
the Catholicos and chaired by Archbishop Barsamian — each member of the
Diocesan Council presented the strategy of the Diocesan Council and what
activities and efforts have been undertaken by the Eastern Diocese the
past five years. They also spoke about future plans to strengthen the
church in America.

“This was a memorable visit to Holy Etchmiadzin and the Republic of
Armenia, which strengthened my personal faith and gave me increased
optimism for the rapid spiritual and economic development of Armenia,”
said Oscar Tatosian, a member of the Diocesan Council.

There was a very good dialogue between the Diocesan Council members and
the Supreme Religious Council members. Each group asked and answered a
variety of questions during the discussions. The meeting continued on
November 5, when it covered a variety of items, including: the
preparation of clergy and how we can prepare effective pastors to
respond to needs of the Armenian faithful today, liturgical issues, the
Friends of the Holy Sea of Etchmiadzin endowment fund and fund-raising
activities by the Eastern Diocese, how to increase cooperation and
communication between Armenian Dioceses around the world, and the recent
official recognition of the Jehovah’s Witnesses by the Armenian
government. The discussions between the Council and the Supreme
Religious Council were good, open discussions.

“Our meetings with His Holiness and the members of the Supreme Religious
Council was a memorable experience,” said Council Member John Amboian.
“It provided me the honor and opportunity to become better acquainted
with His Holiness and the needs of the Holy See. The meetings also
provided me insight into the function and role of the Supreme Religious
Council.”

On the evening of November 5, the Catholicos lead the council members to
the youth center in Yerevan sponsored by the Holy Sea and the Armenian
General Benevolent Union (AGBU). The children there put on an exciting
program of dancing and singing.

SEEING THE REBIRTH

The following day the council traveled to the region of Shirak, where
they met with Bishop Mikayel Ajapahian, Primate, at the Diocesan Center
of the Diocese of Shirak. Bishop Ajapahian spoke of activities
organized by the Diocese of Shirak and took the group to the newly
consecrated Church of St. Hagop, whose benefactor is Sarkis Acopian.
The group then traveled to the His Holiness Catholicos Vasken I School
which was destroyed in the 1988 earthquake but renovated by the Fund for
Armenian Relief (FAR), the Diocesan-affiliated international aid
organization.

On Saturday the council also attended a concert in Yerevan at the
Symphonic Orchestra Hall commemorating the 130th anniversary of the
Kevorkian Seminary in Etchmiadzin.

On Sunday the council members were in Etchmiadzin for a special Divine
Liturgy, celebrated by Archbishop Barsamian on the occasion of the fifth
anniversary of the enthronement of His Holiness Karekin II, Supreme
Patriarch and Catholicos of All Armenians. After the badarak was a
luncheon and program. In celebration, the Council Members presented to
His Holiness the Catholicos on behalf of the Eastern Diocese a gift of
$50,000 to go towards renovating a church in Armenia.

On Monday the council members and the Catholicos traveled to the Diocese
of Geghakouniak, where they visited the newly constructed Vazkenian
seminary in Sevan. They also met with Fr. Terenik Davidian, locum
tenens of the Gegharkouniatz Diocese, who lead the group to the Diocesan
Center in Gavar. Fr. Davidian spoke about the support provided to
Armenian parishes from the Eastern Diocese through sister parish
programs.

“The results of the sister parish program were encouraging,” Tatosian
said. “It is an initiative which can be expanded to create more bonds
between Armenia and the faithful in our diocese.”

VISITING WITH THE YOUTH

On Tuesday the group had meetings in Yerevan with the Armenian Prime
Minister Andranik Margaryan and U.S. Ambassador John Evans. They also
attended a ceremony blessing the crosses for the roof of the newly
constructed Holy Trinity Church in Yerevan, whose benefactor is Louise
Manoogian Simone. The council then visited the FAR offices in Yerevan
and the Children’s Reception and Orientation Center.

The center is a safe haven for homeless young people that was opened in
2000 and has since cared for 700 troubled youth. It is a full-service
facility run by a professional staff of social workers, nurses,
psychologists, and doctors. The Center’s methodology combines
diagnostic and therapeutic approaches to assess the sociological
circumstances of each child. Based on in-depth analyses, the staff
develops personalized treatment plans and ultimately identify new
placements for the children unable to return home.

“The visit to that center was inspirational,” said Council Member Fr.
Yeprem Kelegian. “Seeing the FAR initiatives and the FAR people and the
work they’re doing, you definitely realized they are doing an awesome
job. You realize how they’re using money given to FAR to do so much in
Armenia, especially with this children’s reception project.”

“The loving talented and dedicated staff there is just taking children
off the street and literally recreating them and giving them their
childhood back,” he added. “I was just touched and their efforts really
stood out. All the Supreme Religious Council meetings and talking with
the Catholicos that was important, but I was just moved by that center.”

That same day, the Council members also met with the vicar of the
Araratian Diocese, Bishop Navasard Ktshoyan, and more than 100 young
people from his Diocese. They talked with the young people about how to
increase the connection and communication between the youth of Armenia
and the young Armenians in America.

“It was so good to see so many young people involved in the life of the
church,” said the Primate. “It is a sign that, even after a generation
of communism, we Armenians have a bright future ahead of us.”

HIGHLIGHTING EDUCATION

While in Yerevan, the group traveled to the National Academy of Sciences
where the Primate was honored with the Academy’s Gold Medal.

“It is truly the responsibility of the church to continue supporting
learning and education,” the Primate added. “The first words of the
Bible say that God told us to go forth and multiply and be masters —
and that is something we do with education. There’s so much potential
in humans; and through education and science we learn more each day.”

On Wednesday the Diocesan Council members and the Catholicos visited the
Diocese of Gougark, where they met with Bishop Sebouh Chuljyan, Primate,
who showed them the new St. Greogry of Narek Church built by Council
Member Sarkis and Ruth Bedevian. They also visited the Diocesan Center
of the Diocese of Gougark, where Bishop Sebouh spoke about the summer
camp run by his Diocese with the help of the Eastern Diocese.

While in Vanadzor, the group also toured the Anoosh Mathevosian School,
which was rebuilt and opened in 2002 by FAR with the financial support
of Anoosh Mathevosian. The school was damaged during the 1988
earthquake.

The Council members, who traveled at their own expense, departed Armenia
with renewed spirit and deeper love for their homeland.

“It was inspiring to see the leadership and what they’re able to pull
off in Armenia with so little — the rebuilding, the gathering of the
people, they’re doing an inspiring job,” Fr. Kelegian said. “It was
inspirational.”

— 11/24/04

E-mail photos available on request. Photos also viewable in the News
and Events section of the Eastern Diocese’s website,

PHOTO CAPTION (1): Archbishop Khajag Barsamian, Primate, and members of
the Diocesan Council of the Diocese of the Armenian Church of America
(Eastern), meet with His Holiness Karekin II, Supreme Patriarch and
Catholicos of All Armenians, who invited the group for a historic
meeting in Armenia from November 4 to 11, 2004.

PHOTO CAPTION (2): Members of the Eastern Diocesan Council meet with
members of the Supreme Religious Council in Etchmiadzin during a
first-of-its kind meeting.

PHOTO CAPTION (3): Archbishop Barsamian celebrates the badarak at the
Mother Cathedral in Holy Etchmiadzin on Sunday, November 7, 2004,
commemorating the fifth anniversary of the enthronement of His Holiness
Karekin II, Supreme Patriarch and Catholicos of All Armenians.

PHOTO CAPTION (4): Archbishop Barsamian and His Holiness Karekin II,
Supreme Patriarch and Catholicos of All Armenians, bless new crosses for
the roof of Yerevan’s new Holy Trinity Church during the trip of the
Eastern Diocesan Council members to Armenia the first week in November
2004.

PHOTO CAPTION (5): Members of the Diocesan Council and Garnik
Nanagoulian, executive director of the Fund for Armenian Relief (FAR),
visit with young people at FAR’s Children’s Reception and Orientation
Center in Yerevan.

PHOTO CAPTION (6): Members of the Diocesan Council of the Diocese of
the Armenian Church of America (Eastern) meet with the new U.S.
Ambassador to Armenia, John Evans, during their week-long trip to
Armenia in the first week of November 2004.

PHOTO CAPTION (7): Members of the Eastern Diocesan Council meet with
the Armenian Prime Minister Andranik Margaryan on November 9, 2004.

PHOTO CAPTION (8): Members of Diocesan Council with the Primate and
Catholicos visit Vanadzor’s St. Gregory of Narek Church, which is under
construction with an anticipated date of completion October 2005.

# # #

Europe’s new divisions

The Economist, UK
Nov 24 2004

Nov 24th 2004
>>From The Economist Global Agenda

Russia and the European Union will spend much of the next few years
sparring over the countries that lie between them~Wand much else
besides.

LEADERS from the European Union and Russia will come together for a
summit in The Hague on Thursday November 25th. Originally scheduled
for two weeks earlier, the meeting was postponed because the new
European Commission had not yet been approved. Those taking part this
week could be forgiven for wishing that it had taken place as planned
on November 11th, for relations between Brussels and Moscow,
difficult in recent months, have been strained still further by
Ukraine~Rs disputed presidential election. Russia~Rs president,
Vladimir Putin, was quick to congratulate the ~Swinner~T, Viktor
Yanukovich, who favours close ties with Moscow. The EU, in contrast,
has expressed concern that widespread fraud may have robbed the
pro-western challenger, Viktor Yushchenko, of the presidency (see
article).

The EU-Russia summit is supposed to forge closer ties on the basis of
four ~Scommon spaces~T: economics, justice and humanitarian issues,
education and research, and internal and external security. As the
spat over Ukraine shows, the last of these issues is the thorniest.
What the EU calls its ~Scommon neighbourhood~T with Russia, and what
Russia has dubbed its ~Snear abroad~T~WUkraine, Belarus and Moldova;
and, further east, the Caucasian republics of Georgia, Azerbaijan and
Armenia~Whas become the cause of an almighty, unneighbourly row.

This is not the first time the EU and Russia have clashed over this
region. After Alexander Lukashenka ~Swon~T a recent election in
Belarus, and a referendum allowing him to stay on as president,
Moscow congratulated the dictator, while Brussels cried foul and
tightened its sanctions against his regime. But Ukraine is the key
battleground for influence between the EU and Russia. Bigger than
France, and with a population of almost 50m, it has long borders with
both the newly expanded Union and its former Soviet older brother.
That is why the war of words over Ukraine is being seen by some as
the biggest bust-up between the West and Russia since the Kosovo
conflict in 1999~Wperhaps even since the end of the cold war.

Russia has backed the eastward-looking Mr Yanukovich because it fears
losing Ukraine as a key ally, having already lost it as a Soviet
sibling. As Lilia Shevtsova, a Russia analyst, put it in an interview
with the Financial Times: ~SRussia still feels a phantom pain for the
loss of Ukraine~Elike a patient whose leg has been amputated.~T Moscow,
it seems, has had enough of watching its sphere of influence shrivel
since the Soviet Union~Rs collapse in 1991. One by one, its former
satellites have joined the NATO alliance, and earlier this year a
batch of them~Wincluding three former Soviet republics~Wjoined the EU.
Others, such as Romania and Bulgaria, will follow them before long.
The Union~Rs new members have toughened visa requirements for Russian
visitors and closed their borders to some Russian goods. All this has
made Russia feel vulnerable~Wand thus more prone to flex its muscles
in neighbouring countries.

Though Moscow worries about western influence in Ukraine, the
country~Rs chances of being invited to join the EU any time soon are
poor. The Union is keen to promote human rights and democracy there
(as well as in Belarus), but its Ukraine policy is muddled. This
reflects an internal split that has become more pronounced since the
former eastern-block countries joined in May.

The biggest of the new members, Poland, has long had close ties to
Ukraine (indeed, western Ukraine was briefly part of Poland after
being part of the Austro-Hungarian empire, and some of it did not
rejoin Ukraine until 1945). The Poles have been lobbying hard for
Ukraine (and later Belarus) to be given a special relationship that
would lead eventually to EU membership. The longer the Union holds
out on these countries, the Poles say, the greater the chance they
will be lost for good.

But those EU countries that are geographically far removed from
Ukraine worry more about maintaining bilateral ties with Russia.
Moreover, they would rather focus on countries that are already lined
up for membership: not only the likes of Romania and Bulgaria but
also, further along, Turkey. They argue that the EU simply could not
absorb another big, poor country over the next decade or so. Hence,
despite all that Polish lobbying, there is no consensus on offering
Ukraine a date to start entry negotiations. Nor is there agreement on
starting talks with Georgia, whose ~Srose revolution~T of a year ago
installed a pro-western government, under Mikhail Saakashvili, that
would dearly love to be offered the chance to join the Brussels-based
club.

Those other battles

The fight over Ukraine comes at a time when relations between the EU
and Russia are already plumbing post-Soviet depths. It is true that
the two have forged strong economic ties: just over half of Russia~Rs
exports go to the enlarged Union, which in turn is heavily dependent
on Russian oil and gas. But, on a political level, trust has been
eroding. Brussels is worried that, as a European Commission policy
paper put it earlier this year, some Russian practices ~Srun counter
to universal and European values~T. It has problems with Russian
democracy, or rather the lack of it (the most recent parliamentary
and presidential elections were riddled with irregularities) and
worries that political reforms announced in the wake of the Beslan
siege represent a step back towards dictatorship. The new, central
European members of the EU are calling for a hard line against
Moscow: they want to see their former master challenged and
contained.

Russia, for its part, complains about being left out in the cold. It
resents not being informed about EU positions~Won everything from
immigration to drug trafficking~Wuntil it is too late to influence
them, and wants new joint bodies that will give it a seat at the
table. It also wants Europe~Rs governments to be more sensitive to
Russia~Rs internal concerns: Russian officials fumed when the Dutch
foreign minister accused the authorities of botching the rescue
operation in Beslan. And there is anger that some in the EU portray
Russia~Rs interest in countries to its west, such as Ukraine, as
dangerous. Russian commentators have taken to talking about
~SRussophobia~T in Brussels.

The result is that Russia is once again driving hard bargains. It is
less interested in friendship than in commercial and diplomatic
gains. Thus, it brought smiles to faces in Brussels by ratifying the
Kyoto treaty on climate change recently, but it did so only after
securing EU backing for Russian membership of the World Trade
Organisation and a host of other economic goodies. Were Russia~Rs grip
on Ukraine now to be loosened by the EU, among others, it might only
be encouraged to fight its corner more vigorously in future, in both
politics and economics. Expect tetchiness all round in The Hague.

The Economist, UK
Nov 24 2004

Is Ukraine set for conflict or compromise?

Nov 24th 2004
>>From The Economist Global Agenda

Supporters of Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine’s opposition presidential
candidate, have continued to protest against alleged fraud in Sunday’s
election. But the country’s electoral commission has declared the
official candidate, Viktor Yanukovich, the winner. What happens now
is unclear.

HUGE protests continued in Ukraine’s capital, Kiev, for a third day on
Wednesday November 24th, after a deeply flawed presidential election
which the opposition leader, Viktor Yushchenko, says he would have
won but for widespread balloting fraud by supporters of the official
candidate, Viktor Yanukovich. Thousands of Mr Yushchenko’s supporters,
dressed in orange, his campaign colour, continued to chant his name
in the main square, while hundreds of Mr Yanukovich’s backers, and
riot police, surrounded the electoral commission’s headquarters. The
commission rejected demands by opposition parliamentarians to
delay announcing the results until the irregularities had been
investigated. It declared Mr Yanukovich the winner, by three percentage
points – whereas exit polls had predicted a clear victory for Mr
Yushchenko. The immediate questions now are whether the opposition can
maintain the momentum of its protests; and whether they will continue
to be peaceful – or if bloody clashes with the security forces and
the official candidate’s supporters will now follow.

In an inconclusive emergency session of the parliament on Tuesday,
Mr Yushchenko had declared himself the rightful winner and had even
sworn the presidential oath, with his hand on a bible. Accusing Mr
Yanukovich and the outgoing president, Leonid Kuchma, of engineering
an electoral fraud, Mr Yushchenko said that, as a result, the country
was now “on the brink of civil conflict”. America, the European
Union and other international observers have strongly criticised
the irregularities in the poll, which reportedly included widespread
multiple voting using absentee ballots. Both the United States and
the EU have warned of serious consequences for their relations with
Ukraine if the irregularities are not properly investigated.

Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, has been backing Mr Yanukovich,
who favours maintaining Ukraine’s traditional ties to Moscow,
whereas Mr Yushchenko is keen on joining the EU and NATO. At first,
Mr Putin rang his candidate to congratulate him on his “victory” but,
as the protests of the opposition and of the western powers grew, he
backtracked and called on both candidates to act within the law. Mr
Kuchma stayed silent until Tuesday night, when he issued a statement
calling for talks between the two sides.

The eventual outcome remains uncertain. Mr Yushchenko’s supporters
are hoping for something like the non-violent “rose revolution”
a year ago in Georgia, another former Soviet state, in which huge
popular demonstrations forced the country’s then president, Edward
Shevardnadze, to resign following dubious parliamentary elections. Mr
Yanukovich and his supporters, in turn, show no sign of backing down.
However, on Wednesday Mr Yushchenko hinted at a possible compromise,
saying that he would be prepared to stand again in a re-run of the
second round of voting between him and Mr Yanukovich.

What happens now depends on several factors. First, the strength
of ordinary Ukrainians’ feelings about the outcome – how sick they
are of the current regime and the business oligarchs who prop it up,
and how far they are prepared to go to defend Mr Yushchenko’s claims
of victory. There has been talk of a general strike and the local
authorities in Kiev and several other large cities have declared
their refusal to recognise the official results. But Ukraine is in
the middle of its bitter winter – so staying on the streets will
demand great fortitude.

The loyalty of the state bureaucracy (which recently received a big
pay rise from Mr Yanukovich, currently the country’s prime minister)
may also influence events: a number of Ukrainian diplomats around the
world have signed a document denouncing the results. In particular, it
is not yet clear how the security forces will react to the protests. On
Monday, they issued a statement promising that any lawlessness would
be put down “quickly and firmly”. But in Georgia’s revolution last
year, Mr Shevardnadze bowed to the inevitable and stepped down after
it had begun to look doubtful if his security forces would obey any
order to crush the rising pro-democracy protests. It was reported
that a mid-ranking officer in an elite Ukrainian riot-police unit
had been sacked after denouncing his superiors for issuing “illegal”
orders to use force against protesters. Meanwhile, the defence minister
has denied rumours that he sent tanks to Kiev, and asked the army to
stay calm.

International pressure may also have a significant effect on the
outcome. As well as the pressure from America and the EU, a key
determining factor will be the attitude of Mr Putin. The crisis in
Ukraine is bound to overshadow his summit with EU leaders this week
(see article) and he risks serious difficulties in his relations with
both Europe and America if he backs Mr Yanukovich in repressing the
protests. Towards the climax of the Georgian revolution last year,
Mr Putin seemed to lose patience with Mr Shevardnadze, perhaps
contributing to his downfall. Does the Russian leader’s even-handed
call for both candidates in Ukraine’s conflict to obey the law suggest
he has already begun to hedge his bets?

All along, both Russia and the West have been taking a close interest
in Ukraine’s election, not just because it is one of eastern Europe’s
largest countries, with 49m people, but because the outcome could
have important consequences for the whole region. Mr Yushchenko
presented himself as a pro-western, free-market reformer who would
clean up corruption and enforce the rule of law. Mr Yanukovich, in
contrast, stood for deepening Ukraine’s close links with Russia. If
Mr Yushchenko had gained the presidency and led Ukraine towards
becoming a westernised democracy with European-style prosperity,
voters in Russia and elsewhere in eastern Europe might have begun to
demand the same. Thus a win by Mr Yushchenko would have been a huge
blow to Mr Putin, whose attempts to exert control over former Soviet
states would be greatly diminished.

Though Mr Yushchenko is now hoping for a Georgian-style bloodless
revolution to deliver him the presidency, there are also some less
promising precedents among the former Soviet states: only two months
ago, Belarus’s president, Alexander Lukashenka, “won” a rigged
referendum to allow him to run for re-election. The EU decided this
week to tighten its sanctions against those in his government it
blames for the “fraudulent” ballot. But so far there is no sign that
Mr Lukashenka will be dislodged from power. Azerbaijan and Armenia
also held flawed elections last year: in Azerbaijan, there were
riots after the son of the incumbent president won amid widespread
intimidation and bribery, but these were violently put down; and
in Armenia, voters reacted with quiet despair at the re-election of
their president amid reports of ballot-stuffing. If Ukraine follows
these precedents, hopes for change there, and in other parts of the
former Soviet Union, may be dashed.

Eight members of Azeri pressure group detained over anti-Armenian protest

ANS TV, Baku
24 Nov 04

Excerpt from report by Azerbaijani TV station ANS on 24 November

[Presenter] The 58th Rose-Roth seminar of the NATO Parliamentary
Assembly is to open in Baku tomorrow [25 November].

To recap, Armenian MPs who are due to attend the seminar are expected
to arrive in Baku tonight. The Karabakh Liberation Organization [KLO]
has started protest actions against this. KLO members are holding
their action at Heydar Aliyev international airport at the moment.

[Correspondent over video of KLO members holding black balloons with
anti-Armenian posters attached to them] KLO activists have started
untraditional protest actions against the expected visit of Armenian
MPs to Baku within the framework of the 58th Rose-Roth seminar of
the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. In [Baku’s] Samad Vurgun Garden,
KLO members released into the air black balloons with posters.

[KLO Deputy Chairman Firudin Mammadov] All patriots of Azerbaijan
express their serious protest against the visit of Armenian MPs
to Baku and we insist that the government satisfy the Azerbaijani
people’s demand. Down with the people inviting Armenian MPs who have
occupied Karabakh and legally recognized it.

[Video shows people chanting this slogan and also “Karabakh or death”]

[Correspondent] Baku police tried to seize the protesters’ posters
tied up to the balloons and partially succeeded in doing so. However,
the protesters managed to release into the air the posters attached to
the black balloons also saying – Karabakh or death; Down with those
bringing Armenians to Baku; NATO, don’t support aggressor Armenia;
Aggressor Armenia should be banished from international bodies.

[Passage omitted: reported details]

Ceyhun Asgarov, Emil Babaxanov, ANS.

[Presenter] After the protest action in Samad Vurgun Garden, eight
KLO members were detained and taken to police station No 22.

Azerbaijan: Baku Tells General Assembly Of Armenian Settlement Activity
By Robert McMahon

Radio Free Europe, Czech Republic
Nov 24 2004

Azerbaijan’s foreign minister has urged the UN General Assembly to
adopt a resolution expressing concern over alleged Armenian settlements
in territories seized 10 years ago. Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov
told the assembly that thousands of ethnic Armenians have resettled
in Azerbaijani districts near the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. But
Armenia’s UN ambassador denied any such activities. He told the
assembly that the bid for a UN resolution could undermine an ongoing
process directed by the OSCE.

United Nations, 24 November 2004 (RFE/RL) — Azerbaijan has urged
support for a UN General Assembly resolution that calls attention
to the situation in territories captured by ethnic Armenian forces
a decade ago.

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov told the assembly
yesterday that Baku was seeking UN engagement because he said basic
UN humanitarian principles were at stake.

Mammadyarov said his government had become alarmed by reports of
settlement activities that could threaten the return of hundreds
of thousands of displaced Azerbaijanis to their homes in districts
near Nagorno-Karabakh.

But he also stressed the primacy of the Organization for Security
and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in mediating peace talks between
Azerbaijan and Armenia.

“We do not attempt to engage the General Assembly into consideration
of the conflict resolution issues,” Mammadyarov said. “The matter is
about the problem, which impedes the process of peace negotiations and,
if continued, could lead to a humanitarian disaster.”

The foreign minister said his country had gathered credible information
about a settlement policy promoted by the Armenian government in
Azerbaijani districts adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh. They include
Lachin, Kelbadjar, Zangilan, and Jabrail.

Armenia’s UN ambassador, Armen Martirosyan, denied any such policy.
But he did say that in order to address the charges, Armenia had
decided to facilitate a fact-finding team within the OSCE to assess the
situation in the territories. That is one of the requests contained
in the Azerbaijani resolution.Azerbaijan’s foreign minister said his
government had become alarmed by reports of settlement activities
that could threaten the return of hundreds of thousands of displaced
Azerbaijanis to their homes in districts near Nagorno-Karabakh.

He said Azerbaijan was trying to decouple the issue of the captured
territories from the whole group of issues discussed under the aegis
of the OSCE’s Minsk Group. A fundamental part of those talks, he said,
is the quest for self-determination by the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians.

Martirosyan said the territories are serving as a security belt around
Nagorno-Karabakh as a response to what he called the “war-mongering
rhetoric” of the Azerbaijani leadership.

“The issue of those territories cannot be resolved unless there is a
resolution on the status of Nagorno-Karabakh and security guarantees
are provided,” Martirosyan said.

Turkey’s UN ambassador spoke in favor of the draft resolution,
calling it a “cry out of frustration” by Azerbaijani officials.

But U.S. representative Susan Moore, speaking on behalf of the Minsk
Group, said the Minsk process is the best forum for resolving the
dispute. She said efforts should be focused on building confidence
between the two sides and avoiding divisions in the General Assembly.

“Azerbaijan is raising specific concerns linked to the situation in
Nagorno-Karabakh,” Moore said. “We believe these concerns can be fully
addressed in the existing format. As a first step an OSCE fact-finding
mission could be considered as a means to address this issue.”

The assembly chair said the chamber would continue discussions on
the resolution at an unspecified later date.

AzerTag, Azerbaijan State Info Agency
Nov 24 2004

PRESIDENT OF AZERBAIJAN ILHAM ALIYEV RECEIVED COMMANDER OF TURKEY’S
GENDARMERIE, ARMY GENERAL FEVZI TURKERI AND ACCOMPANYING DELEGATION
[November 24, 2004, 19:30:02]

On 24 November, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev
received a delegation of Turkey led by Commander of the country’s
Gendarmerie Forces, Army General Fevzi Turkeri.

Warmly greeting the guest, the Head of State expressed satisfaction
with a number of important meetings General Fevzi Turkeri had held in
Azerbaijan, and stressed the significance of further strengthening
the cooperation between the Turkish Gendarmerie Forces and Internal
Troops of Azerbaijan.

Expressing the gratitude to the Turkish Gendarmerie Forces for the
assistance provided to the Republic, President Ilham Aliyev noted
that the relations between the “One nation, two states” as was said
by national leader Heydar Aliyev are rapidly developed in all spheres.

Recalling his official visit to Turkey, the Azerbajani leader said the
meetings and document signed during that had created very favorable
conditions for further development and deepening of the bilateral
relations.

According to the President, the recent joint business forum in
Baku became a one more evidence of the very good level of economic
cooperation between Azerbaijan and Turkey. The Head of State especially
touched on the development of the two countries’ military cooperation.

“Since Azerbaijan re-gained its state independence, we have always
felt Turkey’s support in this sphere. The assistance that friendly
and brotherly Turkey provides to raise the combat training standards
in the Azerbaijan Army is of paramount significance for us. This
cooperation continues to successfully develop today”, he said.

Mentioning the huge work done in the sphere of army building in
Azerbaijan,

President Ilham Aliyev noted the socio-political stability within the
country whose foundation was laid by national leader Heydar Aliyev,
is now getting even stronger. He expressed regret, at the same time,
that the long-running negotiations to settle the hardest problem of
Azerbaijan, the conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, have
not yet brought any results.

Reinforcing of the Azerbaijan Armed Forces serves insuring peace and
stability in the region and strengthening of our country’s position
on the way of urgent and peaceful resolution of this conflict, said
the President.

Noting that the Government is taking all necessary measures to
organize the army building process on a high level, the Head of State
expressed confidence that the visit by General Fevzi Turkeri would
make a considerable contribution to the military cooperation between
Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Commander of Turkey’s Gendarmerie, Army General Fevzi Turkeri thanked
the President for the meeting and kind words saying it was a great
honor for him to visit friendly and brotherly Azerbaijan.

He said the relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan have deep
historical roots, and they are being successfully developed on the
“one nation, two states” level.

The General noted that the cooperation between the armed forces of
Turkey and Azerbaijan are strengthened day by day, and that that
between the Turkey’s Gendarmerie and Azerbaijan Internal Forces is
no exception.

I witnessed the high level of preparedness of the Azerbaijan’s Internal
Troops, and I am proud of it, he said.

General Turkeri assured the Head of State that Turkey would continue
to provide assistance and support friendly and brotherly Azerbaijan.
He also expressed confidence that the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict
would be peacefully solved very soon.

General Fevzi Turkeri finnaly passed on the greetings from
Commander-in-Chief of the Turkish Armed Forces Helmi Ozkek to President
Ilham Aliyev.

The Azerbaijani President expressed his deep gratitude for the
greetings and asked the guest to convey his sincere greetings and best
wishes to Commander-in-Chief of the Turkish Armed Forces Helmi Ozkek.

Present at the meeting was Minister of Internal Affairs of Azerbaijan
Ramil Usubov and Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs of Azerbaijan,
Commander of the Internal Troops, Major-General Zakir Hasanov.