How does U.S. Iran war hit us
Daniel Boylan (Sun Editor-IN-Chief)
Baku Sun
11/03/05
BAKU – Resolving the dispute between the United Sates and Iran over
the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions increasingly seems a question
of diplomacy and not war. Still, what a war would mean to Azerbaijan
has increasingly generated its own list of its worries and questions,
local experts say.
Those concerns are many, including Iranian missiles targeted for
military installations reportedly revamped by America nearby Baku
missing their targets and hitting the city. The possibility of hundreds
of thousands of Iranians seeking refuge in Azerbaijan also exists,
as does the possibility of militants sympathetic to Iran sabotaging
crucial Azerbaijani oil routes. All would jeopardize Azerbaijan’s
future.
The chance of war depends on who speaks. Since George W. Bush’s
inauguration to a second term as U.S. President earlier this year,
Washington has increased pressure on Iran to stop secretly trying
to develop nuclear weapons. Iran denies this charge, arguing it’s
developing fuel for nuclear power, not weapons.
The two countries have entered a war of diplomatic jargon, with
the United Nations and European Union urging Iran to cooperate with
inspections of its nuclear program. Washington has emphasized the role
of diplomacy, but also firmly stated that if Iran doesn’t cooperate,
stern consequences will follow.
Nobody wants war
Vafa Guluzadeh, a former advisor to late President Heydar Aliyev,
said America and Iran are now engaging in “a psychological
war.” If any armed conflict does occur, he says, it will trigger
refugees, humanitarian problems and possible terrorist attacks in
Azerbaijan. Attacks might occur as a result of Azerbaijan’s support
for America. While U.S.-based reports say certain Azerbaijani military
installations have been revamped for possible attack, the most credible
sources, including the widely respected U.S.-based monthly magazine
The Atlantic, say they still couldn’t handle the heavy cargo planes
needed for a mass-scale invasion.
“Our airports are reconstructed so they can receive American military
planes, but the U.S. also has bases in Iraq, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan,
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Therefore it may not need Azerbaijan,”
said Guluzadeh.
Other local military analysts fear any use of Azerbaijan as a staging
point would mean swift retribution from Iran. “Iran posses middle-range
missiles and because they cannot reach America, they’ll send them
here in a similar way that Iraq targeted Israel during the Desert
Storm in 1991,” said Azad Isazadeh, a former Azerbaijan information
official and frequent military commentator in the Azeri press.
“Iran can also strike Azerbaijan’s Caspian wells or anywhere along
the oil corridor under the pretext of shooting US air installations
located nearby Baku,” he added.
According to Isazadeh, another major flash point is northern Iran. If
any US infantry cross into northern Iran from Azerbaijan, the Azeri
situation there could explode.
Iran and Azerbaijan
More ethnic Azeris live in Iran than Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has about 8
million but Iran has 18 million, or roughly 24 per cent of the overall
population of 70 million, according to official statistics. However,
it is believed that the entire Azeri population of Iran is actually
higher and closer to 30 million, according to Azeri nationalist
movements in southern Azerbaijan.
History has intertwined Azeris and Persian for centuries through
religious beliefs, historical traditions, language and literature. Such
ties extend into today, even into the sphere of Iranian national
security.
According to a report complied by Russian intelligence available
online, 60 per cent of Iran’s army is ethnic Azeri. The supreme
spiritual leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is also ethnic Azeri
and spoke his native tongue with President Ilham Aliyev during their
last meeting in Tehran earlier this year.
But Azerbaijan spent more than 70 years under Soviet occupation
becoming one of the world’s most secular societies – a rarity in
the Muslim world. During that time cultural affinities weakened
toward Iran.
In addition to cultural drift, oil has made modern relations between
Iran and Azerbaijan complex. Territorial disputes over the Caspian
are contentious. Iran insists on a fifth of the sea’s surface and
bottom – a clear intention to cut some of Azerbaijan’s present day
portion. Legal agreements over the Caspian remain unresolved.
There have been thaws however. Last October Azerbaijan opened a
consulate in Tabriz, a historical Azeri city in modern day Iran’s
northwest, and the two countries are now considering visa-free travel
between their borders.
Refugee issues
Azerbaijan has faced refugee problems ever since the Karabakh war
with Armenia last decade forced an estimated 800,000 people to flee
their homes and resettle across the country. Any U.S. conflict in
Iran would mean more refugees, experts agree. “Hundreds of thousands
of refugees are possible,” said Sergei Rumyanstev, a migration expert
with the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences.
Rumyanstev, like others who research regional ethic issues, speculates
America could try leveraging Azeris in northern Iran like it leveraged
Kurds during the two Iraq Wars. For that to happen, Washington would
have to encourage Azeri nationalism. For years, nationalist groups
in Azerbaijan have called for a greater Azeri state, but Rumyanstev
argues the movement has never gathered much strength. How Azerbaijan,
already strained by Karabakh refugees, could deal with hundreds of
thousands more ranks among the most troublesome long-term questions
should war occur.
“Azerbaijan doesn’t need war in our neighboring country,” said
Guluzadeh. “No one benefits from war.”