Kommersant, Russia
March 14 2005

Armenian Georgians Rebuff Russian Base Withdrawal

Rallies of many thousands were held in Georgian Akhalkalaki to
protest against the pullout of Russian military bases. The rallies
were triggered by the last week’s ultimatum of the Georgian
parliament, calling for Russia to determine by May 15 the exact dates
for withdrawal of its military bases from Akhalkalaki and Batumi.

One of the military bases to be pulled out under the parliamentary
ultimatum is located in Akhalkalaki, the Javakheti region, where the
borders of Georgia, Armenia and Turkey are meeting. It is a region
with nearly 100 percent of Armenian population. In Akhalkalaki base,
the local Armenians serve under military contracts or work as
civilian employees. Despite the continuous pledges of the Georgian
executives to make up for the loss of employment, establish new
working places and transfer the base infrastructure to the local
authorities, Akhalkalaki residents rebuff withdrawal of Russia’s
motor rifle division. Javakhk organization, which is advocating
Javakheti autonomy within Georgian, is the usual leader.

This time was not an exception. Javakheti has responded to the March
10 resolution of the Georgian parliament, in which the latter
recommended authorities to start forcing Russian troops out of
Georgia after May 15. From 5,000 to 6,000 people took part in the
rallies staged past weekend in Akhalkalaki. The protesters were
calling for the base blockade if Russia has to start withdrawal,
intending to resort to the actions taken in Pridnestrovie. `We won’t
allow withdrawal of Russian troops. We will stand in the way and
hinder pullout, even if the process starts,’ one of the Javakhk
leaders told Kommersant.

At the meetings, the protestors were saying that a Turkish base will
replace the Russian one in Akhalkalaki. Georgia denies the rumors.

Russia set to foil “velvet revolutions” in post-Soviet states – Azeri expert

Ekspress, Baku
11 Mar 05

Text of Alakbar Raufoglu report by Azerbaijani newspaper Ekspress on
11 March entitled “CIS-US summit might be held in Moscow” and
subheaded “Independent pundit Mubariz Ahmadoglu thinks Russia is
carrying out anti-revolutionary measures in post-Soviet countries”

“The recent frequent cease-fire violations on the contact line of the
Armenian and Azerbaijani armed forces are linked with Armenia’s plan
to have international peacekeepers deployed in the region,” Mubariz
Ahmadoglu, an independent pundit and the chairman of the Centre for
Political Innovation and Technology [CPIT], told yesterday’s [10
March] monthly press conference devoted to public and political events
in the South Caucasus.

He described the recent pace of the Karabakh talks as “successful for
Azerbaijan”. “Armenians are unhappy about the current state of the
settlement of the problem. Therefore, they intend to alter the
situation on the contact line of the armed forces and distract
attention from reaching real peace,” Ahmadoglu said. He thinks that
Yerevan wants Russian peacekeepers to be deployed on the front-line.

At the same time, the political analyst thinks that more people are
now backing a quick resolution to the Karabakh problem. This is
stemming from the fact that Armenia “has lost its positions” in the
peace process. “Now the majority of people in Armenia are looking for
ways to come out of the settlement process with minimum losses.”

Commenting on the [US President George] Bush – [Russian President
Vladimir] Putin meeting [in Bratislava on 24 February], the head of
the CPIT said that contrary to expectations, the reason for Bush not
to have cornered the Russian president was that the US leader agreed
to visit Moscow on 9 May to attend the festivities to mark the 60th
anniversary of the victory over fascism.

“According to reports from official and unofficial sources, a US-CIS
meeting might take place in Moscow in May to discuss issues in detail
there,” the political expert said.

He underlined the recent “positive tendencies” in the US policy
towards the CIS. Thus, Washington already “understands its rivals in
the regions where its specific interest lies”.

In turn, Russia is aspiring to cooperation with opposition forces to
prevent “velvet revolutions” in post-Soviet areas. “Moscow has already
kicked off specific measures in this regard.” Ahmadoglu believes that
Russia is implementing “secret plans” in CIS countries through its
NGOs. “The Movement for Azerbaijan [led by the leader of the Movement
for Azerbaijan and the Solidarity and Trust election alliance, Ilqar
Qasimov] is precisely the NGO that is carrying out this mission in
Azerbaijan.

The pundit believes that Moscow intends to establish contacts with
Azerbaijani political forces through this organization, and in turn,
opposition parties understand this and are cautious.

19-YEAR-OLD LUSINE TOVMASYAN – VICE MISS EUROPE – 2005

PARIS, MARCH 14, ARMINFO. Nineteen-year-old Lusine Tovmasyan, Miss
Armenia – 2004, is recognized the first Vice Miss Europe –
2005. Representative of Germany with Iranian roots Shermin Shahrivar
has become Miss Europe – 2005.

Among the juries were Chanson Charles Aznavour and couture Paco
Rabbanne. Representatives of Italy have not participated in the
contest for already several years, although once just Miss Europe made
famous Gina Lollobrigita and Sophia Loren because of disagreements
between the organizers.

AZERBAIJAN MAKES ROW BEFORE EVERY ELECTION IN NKR

STEPANAKERT, MARCH 12. ARMINFO. Azerbaijan considers it its duty to
make illegitimacy row every time Nagorno Karabakh Republic is going to
hold an election, says Sergey Nasibyan, Chairman of NKR Central
Electoral Commission, commenting on the recent statement of Azeri FM
official Tair Tagizade.

He says that Karabakh Armenians have resolved their problem in
compliance with the international law by proclaiming independence in
1991 and by regularly holding presidential, parliamentary and
municipal elections. Many observers say that elections in NKR are much
better organized than in Azerbaijan.

The June 19 parliamentary elections are the fourth such elections in
NKR. It will be one more step towards strong statehood and democracy
in NKR, says Nasibyan. He calls groundless Azerbaijan’s concern that
the elections can hinder the Karabakh peace process. The presence of
legal authorities in NKR will only stimulate the process. “I would
advise the Azeri authorities not to deceive themselves but to search
for ways to reconcile the two peoples,” says Nasibyan.

Russia’s rigid policy towards Georgia could backfire, paper says

Kommersant, Moscow
11 Mar 05

Russia is reluctant to withdraw its military bases in Georgia fearing
this might weaken its influence in the Transcaucasus, a Russian
newspaper suggests. However, attempts to retain its military presence
in Georgia at any price could backfire – Moscow’s rigid policy towards
Tbilisi is making political elites in the post-Soviet area
increasingly wary and Russia’s position there increasingly shaky. The
following is the text of a report by Russian newspaper Kommersant on
11 March.

Probably Moscow’s main argument in its years-long dispute with Tbilisi
over the future of the Russian military bases on Georgian territory is
the idea that the withdrawal of such a large number of troops is an
extremely expensive undertaking, and that time (a lengthy period of
it) and money (a substantial amount of it) are needed to find and
equip a place for their future stationing. Therefore, Moscow says,
the Russian troops will not be able to leave Georgia for at least
seven or eight years, and Tbilisi’s demands for their immediate
withdrawal are unrealistic and therefore not serious.

However, the problem of the withdrawal of the Russian troops from
Georgia is not merely a bitter dispute about the timeframe for their
withdrawal and possible compensation. The stakes in this dispute are
far more serious. It is a question of whether Russia retains or loses
its presence and influence in the Transcaucasus.

Moscow’s main strategic partner in the region is Armenia, where there
is a major Russian military base, whose future, as far as the position
of the Armenian authorities is concerned, provides no cause for even
the slightest concern. However, the route to Russia’s base in Armenia
passes through Georgian territory, and the presence of Russian
servicemen there is perceived by Moscow as a sort of guarantee that
the route will not be blocked. Russia’s loss of effective levers of
influence on Tbilisi will make its military presence in Armenia
virtually pointless. Communications with the base there will have to
be made through airspace, Georgian airspace, and this will make those
communications extremely unstable, and therefore unreliable.

So Russia’s loss of influence in Georgia will inevitably lead to a
weakening of its position throughout the Transcaucasus. And this, in
turn, will bury once and for all the idea of recovering Moscow’s
former influence in Central Asia: after all, the Central Asian
republics see the Transcaucasus as an alternative to the Russian route
for exporting their strategic resources to the West; first and
foremost this takes the form of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline.

Therefore the Kremlin is not happy with mere normalization of
relations with Tbilisi, a key point in which is the future of the
Russian bases. Moscow would like to radically change its relations
with its southern neighbour. And the main idea of this change is to
preserve (or, even better, to consolidate) Russian influence in
Georgia. Moscow seems unwilling to accept anything less, taking the
view that either the normalization of Russian-Georgian relations leads
to a strengthening of Russia’s presence in Georgia, or else
normalization does not take place at all.

However, attempts to retain its military presence in Georgia at any
price could backfire on Moscow and eventually cost it even
more. Moscow’s rigid policy towards Tbilisi is making political elites
in the post-Soviet area increasingly wary and Russia’s position there
increasingly shaky.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Azeri leader rules out compromise on Karabakh

Azerbaijani TV Channel One, Baku
12 Mar 05

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has said while he favours the idea
of meeting his Armenian counterpart Robert Kocharyan to discuss ways
to settle the long-standing dispute over Nagornyy Karabakh, there is
nothing left to discuss.

In an interview with reporters broadcast by Azerbaijani state-run
Channel One TV on 12 March Aliyev said: “I have already met Kocharyan
several times and discussed almost all issues. The sides have made
their positions clear. There has been no change in our position. And
there can be none.”

President Aliyev also rejected the idea of mutual compromises to
resolve the conflict.

“What kind of a compromise should we make? What have we taken away
from them and what should we give them back now? So, mutual
concessions are out of the question. It is a wrong idea that [the
conflict] should be resolved through mutual compromises,” Aliyev said.

The Azerbaijani president said the only thing his government could do
was to guarantee the security of the Karabakh Armenians, as well as
the Azerbaijanis who would return there.

“We can work on this. This is something that we can
discuss. Otherwise, we have nothing to concede,” Aliyev said.

President Aliyev said a meeting with Kocharyan could be scheduled
depending on meetings between the two countries’ foreign ministers,
Elmar Mammadyarov of Azerbaijan and Vardan Oskanyan of Armenia.

“The presidents can meet if there is progress in these negotiations,
if Armenia demonstrates a constructive position and finally realizes
that the issue can be resolved only in line with the norms of
international law and if the meetings between the foreign ministers
yield any result,” Aliyev said.

Azeri soldier reportedly wounded in Armenian gunfire

ANS TV, Baku
13 Mar 05

Armenian armed forces stationed in Agdam’s occupied Qarvand village
fired at Azeri positions in Ciraqli village of the same district at
0500 [0100 gmt] on 13 March.

The ANS Karabakh bureau has quoted Ciraqli residents as saying that
Nuraddin Suleymanov, an Azeri soldier drafted from Saatli District,
was wounded in the Armenian gunfire.

The [Azerbaijani] Ministry of Defence has neither confirmed nor denied
the report.

1,500 Georgians protest against withdrawal of Russian bases

.c The Associated Press

TBILISI, Georgia (AP) – About 1,500 residents of a southern Georgian town
gathered Monday to protest the future withdrawal of a Russian military base,
Rustavi-2 television reported in a sign of local objections to Georgia’s firm
intention to close down the last two remaining Soviet-era bases.

Participants in the rally called on the Georgian government not to rush the
pullout of the 62nd Russian military base, saying they feared for their
livelihood. Many residents of the town of Akhalkalaki, close to the border with
Armenia, work at the base.

They adopted an appeal to Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili to help
solve the region’s social and economic problems.

Georgia and Russia have been sparring furiously over the timetable for
withdrawal. Tbilisi wants the troops out within two years, if not earlier, while
Moscow insists it needs at least four years, if not more than a decade, to
complete the job.

The Russian daily Kommersant said last week that Moscow is motivated in part
by fears its military presence in Armenia – its closest ally in the
strategic Caucasus region – could be at risk if it pulls out of Georgia.

Russia does not border Armenia, and uses Georgian territory to move troops
and equipment to its military base there.

03/14/05 03:02 EST

NATO delegation arrives in Armenia

Mediamax news agency
14 Mar 05

YEREVAN

An assessment team of the Partnership for Peace Planning and Review
Process (PARP) programme arrived in Armenia today on a two-day visit.

The NATO delegation, led by Frank Boland, the head of the Force
Planning Section at NATO’s Defence Planning and Operations, will have
meetings at the Armenian Defence Ministry and Foreign Ministry,
Mediamax reports. The delegation also includes NATO’s officer for
South Caucasus countries, Romualds Razuks.

[Passage omitted: minor details]

Zaman Online

SAHIN ALPAY

03.14.2005 Monday – ISTANBUL 12:07

Is the JDP Power Being Shaken?

I believe the most penetrating analysis of the reasons for the Justice and
Development Party’s (AKP’s) success in the 2002 general and later in the
2004 local elections is the one provided by Professor Ziya Onis in his
article entitled “The Political Economy of Turkey’s Justice and Development
Party” dated November 2004.
()
The point underlined in this analysis is that AKP owes
its success mostly to its ability to bring together both the winners and
losers of the globalization of the Turkish economy, in a broad cross – class
electoral alliance. According to Onis, the AKP succeeded in raising among
broad segments of Turkish society the hope that in government it would be
able to utilize the positive aspects of globalization, consolidate freedoms
and alleviate social injustices.

Undoubtedly, external alliances also contributed a great deal to the ascent
of AKP until at least the end of year 2004. AKP government’s determination
to follow both the economic stability program and political reforms helped
relations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union
(EU) to develop in a positive direction. Relations with the United States,
strained due to the rejection in March 2003 of American troop deployment in
Turkey, were stabilized through the offer of 10 thousand Turkish troops to
be deployed in Iraq and other means. Since the beginning of 2005, however,
both the internal and external alliances of the AKP seem to suffer certain
jolts. The most problematic part in the chain of external alliances is the
relations with the United States. Ankara as a whole is upset by the Bush
administration’s Iraq policy: It is concerned with the fact that Americans
are allowing for the presence of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party’s (PKK) in
Northern Iraq, and that an independent Kurdish state in Iraq under U.S.
occupation is in the making. The U.S., on the other hand, is not pleased
with Ankara’s distancing itself from Israel, its rapprochement with Syria
and Iran (which Washington keeps under the threat of “regime change”), and
its reluctance to meet the new American demands concerning the use of the
Incirlik air base.

Spokespersons for the neo-conservative clique have expressed Washington’s
dissatisfaction with Ankara through articles published in The Wall Street
Journal (“The Sick Man of Europe – Again”) and in the Middle East Quarterly
(“Green Money, Islamist Politics in Turkey”). In these articles, the AKP was
accused of “secret and insidious” Islamism and of being manipulated by Saudi
Arabia. An American friend of mine, who closely follows Turkish – US
relations, wrote the following comment in a letter he sent a few days ago:
“I wonder what the secret agenda of these articles is? My guess is that the
neo-cons are extremely disturbed by Turkey’s new independent – minded
foreign policy, and want to encourage the Bush administration to topple the
AKP government. Such an attempt by Bush would be extremely foolish, and yet
he might try it. If he does, he may find himself faced with a left Kemalist
and ethnic – nationalist government in Ankara.”

The other problematic part of AKP’s external alliances has to do with the
EU. A decision was made by the EU to start accession negotiations on October
3. The conditions set are, however, tough and discriminatory. Almost no
measures were taken towards lifting of the international isolation of the
Turkish Cypriots. France has decided to hold a referendum on Turkey’s
membership. [Nicholas] Sarkozy and [Angela] Merkel have been pressing for a
“privileged membership.” “Recognize the Armenian genocide!” pressures are
mounting. These developments, which threaten the pro-EU alliance in Turkey,
do not strengthen the AKP’s hand. With no incentives to move further, AKP’s
reform agenda has “laxed”.

The most important problem in AKP’s domestic alliances is the frustrations
experienced among the Islamic circles. Due to opposition by the
military-civilian bureaucracy, the AKP government has so far been unable to
take any measures to lift the headscarf ban in the universities or to
provide equal opportunities in the national university entrance examination
for vocational high school graduates, and among them the graduates of prayer
leader and preacher schools. Reports of the EU and verdicts of the European
Court of Human Rights augment disappointments. Surely the sheer luck factor
is no longer on AKP’s side, and it has become increasingly difficult to
manage the domestic and external political alliances. As long as AKP sticks
to the economic stability and political reform agenda, however, jolts in
alliances may not lead to serious consequences.

March 8, 2005

03.14.2005