Antiwar.com, CA
March 29 2005

An Improbable War and Turkey’s New Opportunities

by Christopher Deliso
balkanalysis.com

“We want dialogue with the U.S., not war,” says Turkish author Burak
Turna. “We have written this book to prevent a war.”

The book of which Turna speaks, Metal Firtina (“Metal Storm” in
Turkish) has become a runaway bestseller in Turkey over the past
couple months. A thriller in the style of Tom Clancy, the novel (by
Turkish authors Turna and Orkun Uçar) has been attacked for its
alleged anti-American elements and conspiracy theorizing. The plot
describes how a flare-up between Turkish and American troops in
northern Iraq leads to an out-and-out war, resulting in the American
bombing of Istanbul and Ankara and a Turkish detonation of a nuclear
bomb in Washington in response.

Is such a war possible? And is there any precedent for U.S.-Turkish
hostilities? Very few would wager money on the former scenario. It is
far more likely that any future disaster in Istanbul, at least, would
be caused by an earthquake or accident in the congested Bosporus. But
Burak Turna does believe there is an example of the latter. “We
foresaw that American policy is turning against Turkey, which would
lead to a clash between sides,” he told me recently. “Such an event
occurred after we started to write the book – in Sulaymaniyah
[northern Iraq], where U.S. soldiers captured 11 Turkish soldiers. If
we had resisted, a war would have broken out.”

The event of which Turna speaks caused indignation across Turkey. On
July 4, 2003, around 100 U.S. soldiers “stormed the barracks,”
arresting 11 Turkish soldiers who were allegedly planning to
assassinate the Kurdish governor of Kirkuk. Turks were outraged not
only by this aggression from a longtime ally, but also because the
Americans had actually handcuffed the soldiers and put bags over
their heads “as if they were al-Qaeda terrorists.” This incident had
been preceded by a similar (but hushed-up) one on April 22, which saw
the U.S. arrest Turkish soldiers in civilian clothes who were
escorting an arms shipment into northern Iraq. Such ugly events go a
long way toward explaining why such distrust has arisen.

Could tranquil, age-old Istanbul come under American bombardment?

Fiction and Fact

According to the VOA, Metal Storm has “an outrageous plot that
somehow strikes a responsive chord [among Turks]” and reveals “a
startling shift of opinion.” Yet there is a lot of presupposition
latent behind words like “outrageous,” “somehow,” and “startling.”
It’s strange that the U.S. government’s media wing can express
surprise here, since after all the same article mentions that the
Turkish people have been adamantly opposed to the Iraq war since the
beginning – some on grounds of religion, others out of stability
fears, others out of mistrust of American designs on the region.

But Metal Storm can hardly be blamed for creating “anti-Americanism”
among the Turks. Rather, the fact that the book is so popular should
be seen as more of a rare barometer of not only public opinion but
also imagination. After all, if people didn’t love high-firepower,
cloak-and-dagger geopolitical thrillers, how could authors from Ian
Fleming to John Le Carré to Tom Clancy have made industries out of
their works? No one thinks twice when the enemies in such a book (the
Western “good guys” are always a given) happen to be dastardly
Soviets or North Koreans, Arabs or Cubans or whoever. And, if the
reader also finds works in which their nation is an actor more
relevant, why shouldn’t the Turkish imagination be struck by a book
which features their own country? And is it not rather chauvinistic,
anyway, to assume that we in the West can enjoy a work of fiction for
what it is, whereas other lesser peoples run the risk of taking it
for gospel truth? A Turkish commentator (who also did not discern
much anti-Americanism in the book’s popularity) pointed out that “any
human wanting to escape from the issues of every day life can easily
do so by reading [Metal Storm]. Within that same logic the humans
that read the Da Vinci Code were not against the Catholic Church but
they read it because it had an intriguing theme.”

Most recent Western articles about Metal Storm have centered simply
on the fact that it has sold over 150,000 copies – but not bothered
to get the feedback of anyone who actually read it. This leads to
sweeping generalizations and deceptive juxtapositions. For example,
much has been made of a recent BBC poll that “indicates Turkey is now
the most anti-American nation on earth,” with 82 percent allegedly
hating America. But this is laughable. There are plenty of other
nations more “anti-American” than Turkey. And if one looks at the
original article, it seems the only specific question that the BBC
asked was whether or not the reelection of George W. Bush had made
the world a more dangerous place. A full 21 out of the 24 countries
surveyed agreed with this statement; only a few percentage points
after Turkey were citizens from a couple other key (and non-Muslim)
U.S. allies, Argentina and Brazil. Of course, none of these facts
have stopped neocon mouthpieces like FrontPageMag from tarring Turkey
as “a new al-Qaeda state.” Very helpful.

Indeed, my frequent trips to the country over the past six years have
shown me that in the vast majority of cases, any American, so long as
they act sensibly and respectfully, will be treated well by most
Turks. And a recent AP report conceded as much: “while criticism of
Bush and U.S. policy has skyrocketed, there is little hostility
toward Americans on the streets.”

Isolating the Real Enemy

For the authors of Metal Storm, in fact, part of the task was to
point out the real enemy from the American side. “Our book reveals,”
says Turna, “that Turkey should not be anti-American, but [rather]
harshly criticize Bush and his neocon politics.”

That said, it is truly remarkable (but not very surprising) that the
ever aware U.S. government is trying to bury the problem, while also
attacking the phenomenon of Metal Storm. Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice, meeting recently with Turkish leaders, “raised
concerns about the negative image of the United States in Turkey.”
According to Burak Turna, “U.S. officials made comments on the book
to [the Turkish] media … some U.S. diplomats are very angry with us.”
And an unnamed U.S. diplomat in Turkey cited by the CSM in
mid-February stated in exasperation that “we’re really pulling our
hair out trying to figure how to deal with this.”

Really, it’s not so difficult, as William S. Lind subsequently
pointed out. Rice and the diplomats should have considered which
Americans and which policies in particular are responsible for
Turkish unease. But the neocons have never been very interested in
introspection.

That’s the unbelievable scenario described in Metal Storm

The Neocons Step Up Anti-Turkish Aggression

At the same time, the neocon-driven Bush administration is also
pushing the Turkish government to grant it unpopular military
concessions – something that can only increase Turkish hostility
toward the U.S. But what else could be expected of them? Now the
neocons are clamping down and tightening the screws. A recent AEI
event called “Can the U.S.-Turkish Relationship be Repaired?” was
attended by in-house notables such as Richard Perle and Robert
Pollock, “who wrote the Wall Street Journal op-ed painting Turkey as
rapidly turning into a hotbed of vicious anti-American attitudes,” as
well as Middle East Forum editor (and former Office of Special Plans
disinformation specialist) Michael Rubin, “who recently questioned
[the ruling Turkish party] AKP’s links to Islamic capital.” A partial
report of the proceedings shows that these overblown demagogues were
quite vicious themselves in attacking the Turks from all sides –
something which would have been inconceivable until the Iraq war.

Why all the intimidation? The AEI event seems to have been backup for
the Bush administration’s “proposal to use the southern air base of
Incirlik as a cargo hub for U.S. forces operating in the region.”
Now, the U.S. has been using Incirlik, near the southern city of
Adana, for a long time already, but the current proposal would see it
become a vital center for the U.S. war effort in Iraq – something the
Turks vetoed in a March 1, 2003 parliamentary vote that was
incidentally a rare victory for democracy. But the decision also
caused immense displeasure among the neocons, who had counted on
Turkey to be faithful as ever and expedite the war.

Any decision to increase American use of the air base will be an
unpopular one in Turkey, but probably not a devastating one for
relations. However, there is now a real risk that the administration
might go all the way in alienating the Turks, whether or not an
“agreement” is reached. Turkey’s NTV television is cited as reporting

“[T]he government might officially reply to Washington over the
Incirlik proposal in the coming weeks, before the 90th anniversary of
an alleged Armenian genocide at the hands of the late Ottoman Empire
arrives on April 24.

“A powerful Armenian lobby in the U.S. Congress is expected to push
for a resolution recognizing the alleged genocide as part of an
anniversary campaign. U.S. administrations have opposed such attempts
in Congress in the past but observers say this year the George W.
Bush administration may not be as willing to prevent such a move as
it was in the past, given the growing mistrust of the Turkish
government.”

The Turks Ask: What Is the U.S. Really Up To?

While I guess we can learn something from “focus groups” held in
American-style bagel factories and the Istanbul Ritz-Carlton, it’s
not the way I chose to do it on this month’s visit to Istanbul. I was
not particularly interested in dismissing the Turks as adherents of
“mad conspiracy theories” or in making haughty and sweeping
news-speak statements like “the real battle for Turkey is the battle
for Turkish hearts and minds.” Rather than interview Turkey’s
“pro-Western” elite, the kind of people whose voices are already
heard in the media anyway, I sought out young Turks and Kurds who are
far from influential but who have plenty of education and experience
working with and for Westerners. People some of whom come from the
“fundamentalist” places that the elite look down upon with fear and
disdain, but who also understand well the differing mindsets of
everyone from America to Germany to Japan.

According to them, the growing wariness of America owes specifically
to Turkish observance of the American war machine in action. “People
in Turkey are starting to talk about things in a new way,” says
Enver, a 24-year-old Turkish tour operator from the Aegean coastal
city of Izmir. “If they [the U.S.] attacked Afghanistan, and then
Iraq, and now are talking about Syria or Iran, who will be next?”

Kamer, a 32-year-old hotel manager and Kurdish Turk from the
southeastern town of Mardin, nods in agreement. “Now, everything is
changing. Even the people who used to say ‘yeah, America!’ no longer
trust them. There is a feeling that the Americans screwed up big time
in Iraq – so, many people are laughing at them, but they are also a
little afraid of what they will do next.”

Their view is shared by another Kurd originally from the Batman area,
Apo, who now works as a bartender in a pub popular with American,
Australian, and British tourists. “I’ve been in 23 countries, and met
people from many more,” he says. “The most common criticism of the
U.S. is not against the [American] people but against the war
policies of George Bush. I have friends and family in America, and I
would like to visit there someday. So we Turks are not against
America – but after seeing these wars against Muslim countries
continue to unfold, we have for the first time become a bit
mistrustful: what is Bush really up to? Is it all about Middle
Eastern oil and control of Central Asia, like the book [Metal Storm]
says? And what country will be next?”

A colleague of his, Fatih, adds that some Turks fear there is a
religious dimension to this as well. “We can see clearly who supports
Bush’s wars: Israel and the Christian fundamentalists in America.
These people are like crusaders. They want to make the whole world
like them. It is true, Turkey is a secular Muslim state, but it is a
Muslim state [nonetheless], and religious people here are afraid that
they would like to ‘convert’ us someday.”

The Self-Sufficiency Argument and the EU Backlash

It is interesting that many of these views are shared by the Turkish
“elite.” The Australian article, for example, cites young Turks who
point out America’s support for Israel as a prime factor behind
tensions in the region. And the author cites a young academic who
says, “[W]e’re worried about the way America is attacking countries
in the region and we might be on the list.”

On a second front, the complex issue of potential EU membership,
Turks are again leery. A young airline executive cited denounces the
EU countries as “liars and hypocrites” bent on denying Turkey EU
membership through subterfuge and deception. “Of course they are
racist and prejudiced against us. We don’t need Europe.”

I have noticed these attitude growing for the past couple years, as
Turkish-EU negotiations have intensified and Turkish exasperation
with the union has grown. As the European states wound Turkish pride
by threatening to keep them out, Turks are beginning to invoke the
argument for self-sufficiency and national pride. Turkey is a major
textiles and agricultural exporter; has developed industries in areas
such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles; and boasts a
growing tourism industry as well. As for mineral resources, the
country possesses the world’s largest boron reserves (64 percent), as
well as 40 percent of the world’s marble and large quantities of
other natural resources, including magnesites, coal, chromite, and
copper. Urban Turkey offers shopping malls, airports, hotels, and
convention centers as modern as anywhere in the world. Don’t these
things count for anything, Turks ask?

Says Enver, “Turkey has everything it needs to be one of the richest
countries in Europe. It doesn’t need the EU, though the politicians
keep saying that this is our only choice.”

Apo agrees. “Turkish people want to live well, but they have been
brainwashed by the media to believe that only the EU can help. Yet
now is coming a generation of young people, many from western Turkey,
who are not so sure. They have educated themselves about the issue.
They know what’s going on. They know what we can expect to gain from
the EU – but also what we can lose.”

A Future Superpower Role for Turkey?

Distaste with the EU’s prevarications and tricks, mistrust with
America’s incessant warmongering, and a new sense of self-confidence
could conceivably lead the Turks to seek a more active role in world
leadership. How might this play out? “My friend, there is too much
support for an all-Turkish alliance,” says Enver. He is referring to
a possible scenario long considered, which would see Turks create
some kind of union with their ethnic kin in Azerbaijan and the
Central Asian states. While such a possibility is popular, at least
among a certain percentage of the population, Kamer avers, “our
politicians are very pro-Europe, and want to keep the people down. So
they haven’t moved very strongly in this direction.”

It is in this context that Apo recounts the pan-Turkic dream of
Turgut Ozal. A towering figure in modern Turkish politics, Ozal
served as prime minister from 1983-1989, and thereafter became
president until his death in 1993 of a heart attack. Ozal was
enthusiastic about creating a Turkish sphere of influence, one that
would stretch “from the Adriatic to the Great Wall of China.”

With the fall of the Soviet Union, Turkey began energetically seeking
out new allies among its ethnic peers in Central Asia. In 2004,
former Indian Ambassador to Turkey and Azerbaijan K. Gajendra Singh
credited “the dynamic leadership” of Ozal for a plan that provided
training, loans, and investments into the billions of dollars for the
Central Asian republics after 1991. However, following Ozal’s death
in 1993, the pan-Turkic project was put on the back burner.
Subsequent governments showed less interest in ethnic projects than
in religious ones, and despite various resumptions of interest, a
pan-Turkic alliance never really got off the ground.

Until recently, the primary opposition to Turkish influence in
Central Asia has come from the Russians, who wished to retain their
influence over military and energy affairs. However, now that
increased American intransigence has driven the two ancient enemies
closer together than ever before, things are changing. And America’s
frenetic democracy-building adventures in Central Asia are also
proving a headache for the Turkish government, as it tries to decide
how to react to events such as the destructive coup in Kyrgyzstan,
which has revealed a vacuum of power that perhaps neither Russia nor
America can adequately fill. Is it possible that Turkey could
exercise some influence, here and in the other republics America is
seeking to revolutionize?

It is clear that adventures such as Kyrgyzstan reveal the U.S. to be
just as obsessed with limiting the influence of Russia and China as
it is with controlling energy sources and pipeline routes. However,
it has shown relatively little awareness of other unifying regional
factors, most importantly the shared Turkic background of the Central
Asian states, which, if augmented by Azerbaijan and Turkey, could
make up one of the largest and richest ethnic blocs in the world. Is
it just possible that continuing neocon intransigence could drive
Turkey to assert itself more forcefully, both as a leader of allies
and in its budding friendship with ancient antagonist Russia?

This is a very large and complex subject, one well beyond the scope
of the present article. But it is worth speculating for a moment over
what the “map” could look like if, after a few years, oafish neocon
belligerence backfires and Russia and China are joined by the Turkic
bloc in an alliance fundamentally hostile to American interests. To
some, it might sound as ridiculous as the plot of Metal Storm. But
then again, none of the U.S. government’s adventures in this part of
the world have materialized quite as the “experts” expected. No
doubt, the world has more surprises in store for them yet.

Inevitably… the Sequels

So what happens next? The road ahead is clear for the authors of
Metal Storm, at least. In true American style, they are franchising
their product. While 37-year-old co-author Orkun Uçar forges ahead on
Metal Storm 2, 30-year-old Turna is working on Metal Storm 3, as well
as another novel on a similar theme, World War 3. In the latter work,
he tells me, the scenario of a future pan-Turkic alliance figures
strongly in the plot. It sounds like it will be another rousing
bestseller.

What is most remarkable is the degree to which the authors’ viewpoint
coincides with that of the public at large. Turna echoes the
mentality of Turks I and others have spoken to recently when he
declares that

“Turkey can be and should be a superpower in the world. We have all
the resources and historical background for that. The EU would
benefit from us but there is little benefit we can take from them.
Turkey is a must for Europe’s future, if they want to stay as one,
but they are not a must for us.”

As every reader of futuristic, high-velocity fiction knows, only time
will tell.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Boston Globe, MA
March 29 2005

Remembering a dark chapter in Turkish history
By Peter S. Canellos, Globe Staff | March 29, 2005

CAMBRIDGE — Henry Morgenthau III sits in his living room, surrounded
by mementos of his family, and speaks of the great goal of his
grandfather’s life: ”He wanted to think of himself as fully
American.”

Morgenthau’s immigrant grandfather, who served as US ambassador to
Turkey between 1913 and 1916, strived to establish the German-Jewish
Morgenthaus in the American aristocracy almost as assiduously as
Joseph P. Kennedy Sr. strived to establish his Irish-Catholic family
in the American pantheon. The Morgenthaus acquired top-notch
educations, a grand home in the Hudson Valley near the Roosevelts,
and a seemingly permanent seat at the tables of power.

The Morgenthaus ascended the way most immigrants did, by
assimilation. Henry III still remembers his grandfather reciting
rhymes to try to rid himself of the last vestige of a German accent
— his difficulty pronouncing the letters ”th.” The first Henry
Morgenthau distanced himself from Zionism, fearful that it would
prompt suspicions of dual loyalties among American Jews.

But while assuming the posture of the Protestant Yankee elites, the
Morgenthaus never forgot their shared ancestry with the refugees,
displaced peoples, and immigrants of the world. That is why they
occupy a unique niche among America’s self-made aristocracy: Both
Henry Morgenthau Sr. and his son Henry Morgenthau Jr. are heroes to
millions overseas for trying to intervene in the first two genocides
of the 20th century, the Turkish slaughter of Armenians in 1915 and
the Nazi extermination of European Jews.

In the United States, the recent growth of Holocaust studies has cast
a new spotlight on the accomplishments of both men, especially Henry
Morgenthau Sr. As the 90th anniversary of the date marking the
Armenian genocide arrives next month, Armenian-Americans will be
quoting from the diplomatic cables sent back by Ambassador Morgenthau
as proof of slaughters of Armenians at the hands of Ottoman Turks
that the Turkish government has yet to acknowledge.

In a book written in 1918, Morgenthau sought to separate the killings
of Armenians from past forms of civil strife, writing of ”the
massacre of a nation” long before the term genocide was invented.
Collecting eyewitness accounts from US consuls at various locations
in the Ottoman Empire, which then included Palestine and Armenia,
Morgenthau warned of an unceasing campaign of murder by Turks.

”The cables that were sent back and forth were very alarming — a
graphic, florid description of what was going on — and the State
Department’s response was just to let him go it alone,” explained
Henry Morgenthau III.

Henry Morgenthau Sr. never wanted to be ambassador to Turkey, which
was then the segregated Jewish seat of the diplomatic corps. He had
higher ambitions.

Morgenthau had attached his hopes to Woodrow Wilson when the New
Jersey governor was a long-shot presidential candidate in 1912.
Morgenthau, who had made his fortune on Wall Street, chaired Wilson’s
campaign finance committee. As a reward, Morgenthau expected nothing
less than a Cabinet post — but Wilson did not come through. Instead,
according to Henry III, Wilson urged Morgenthau to take the post in
Constantinople, now known as Istanbul, as a way of helping ”your
people.”

Morgenthau did get to help Jews — funneling American contributions
to help rescue Jews in Palestine from starvation — but his greatest
contribution was calling attention to the plight of the Armenians.
After serving as ambassador for three years, he went on to found the
largest private relief organization for surviving Armenians.

By 1932, when he began raising money for the first presidential run
of New York Governor Franklin D. Roosevelt, Ambassador Morgenthau’s
ambitions had been channeled into his son, Henry Jr.

Roosevelt named the younger Morgenthau to be secretary of the
treasury, a post he held for 11 years, during which time he was
instrumental in financing the military buildup during World War II.

But Henry Morgenthau Jr. was also the leading voice calling attention
to the systematic killing of Jews, when the State Department refused
to highlight the issue. Morgenthau had his Treasury staff research
their own report on the Holocaust, declaring ”the acquiescence of
this government in the murder of the Jews.” Without State Department
approval, he used his personal friendship with Roosevelt to prod the
president to take action.

Roosevelt eventually pressured Hungary to halt any transfers of Jews
to the Nazis, saving 200,000 people, but he did not heed Morgenthau’s
pleas to bomb Auschwitz. Henry Morgenthau Jr. went on to help
establish Israel, serving as chairman of the United Jewish Appeal,
among other posts.

Later generations of immigrants, holding close to their ethnic and
religious identities, came to view assimilation with suspicion, as
though those who aspired to Ivy League pedigrees, Dutchess County
addresses, and fancy New York men’s clubs were merely trying to
disappear into another culture.

The Morgenthaus disprove that theory. In fact, they were far more
marked by their religion because they traveled in Protestant circles,
and their values were strengthened for being challenged every day.
Henry Morgenthau III, who was close to both his father and
grandfather, became a public-television pioneer, producing a series
called ”Prospects of Mankind” featuring his mother’s good friend,
Eleanor Roosevelt. Now in his late 80s, Morgenthau has become the
family historian.

His younger brother Robert Morgenthau is the legendary Manhattan
district attorney, most noteworthy in recent years for refusing to
seek the death penalty, even where allowed under state law, because
he believes it is unfairly applied. Now, on the 90th anniversary of
the Armenian genocide, Henry Morgenthau III is still pressing his
grandfather’s cause, urging the Turks to acknowledge the massacres.

”Ninety years after the 1915 genocide, there are no living
individuals who can be held responsible,” Morgenthau said. ”But from
the standpoint of both nations, Armenia and Turkey, it would be not
only the right thing but a satisfying thing for those people to
achieve healing.”

Peter S. Canellos is the Globe’s Washington bureau chief. National
Perspective is his weekly analysis of events in the capital and
beyond.

Financial Times, UK
March 29 2005

Defections stir turmoil in Turkish parliament
By Vincent Boland in Ankara

Six Turkish MPs changed their party allegiance yesterday,
highlighting a brittle political atmosphere that has paralysed the
government and the opposition just as Turkey faces renewed European
pressure to prove that reforms are working.

One deputy resigned from the ruling Justice and Development party
(AKP), bringing to seven the number of the party’s MPs, including a
government minister, who have defected this year.

Five MPs quit the main opposition Republican People’s party (CHP),
which has been beset by a leadership challenge and by its failure to
offer an alternative to the listless government.

The shifting allegiances coincide with a period of unpredictable and
shifting public and political opinion in Turkey.

The chief manifestation of this mood is a rise in nationalist
sentiment. An opinion poll in the Islamist-oriented newspaper Zaman
on Sunday suggested that, while support for Turkey’s bid to join the
European Union was unchanged at 75 per cent, at least half of Turks
believed their country was “surrounded by enemies”.

Respondents had negative feelings for Israel, Armenia, the US and
Greece, and positive feelings for Germany and Azerbaijan.

The poll, conducted in mid-February, provides a reason behind the
fierce patriotic reaction last week to an attempt by three children
to burn the Turkish flag at a demonstration attended by many Kurds.
Yesterday in Ankara fewer flags were on show following an outburst of
flag-waving.

Critics say the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, prime minister,
has failed to capitalise on the goodwill it earned for getting the EU
to open accession talks next October. Instead it is struggling to
demonstrate to the EU that it has not lost the reforming credentials
that convinced Brussels to invite it to talks in the first place.

The defections have had only a slight impact on the balance of power
in the 550-seat parliament, where the AKP has 360 seats and the CHP
163. But commentators said there was evidence of a realignment of
political allegiance in Turkey that could influence the outcome of
the next general election, scheduled for 2007.

Mirac Akdogan, who quit the AKP for the centre-right Motherland
party, said the ruling party was “losing the legitimacy it gained by
winning the [2002] election.”

Analysts said the AKP was riven by infighting among reformists,
modernisers, Islamists and nationalists. But it is well ahead in
opinion polls, thanks to its good record on the economy.

The five MPs who left the CHP for a small centre-left party are
supporters of Mustafa Sarigul, a district mayor in Istanbul who
failed last month to oust Deniz Baykal, the party leader. Mr Sarigul
was expelled from the party on Friday.

Which Country Is Up Next for a Revolution?
By Henry Meyer
The Associated Press, March 28, 2005

Who’s next? That’s the question strongmen in former Soviet lands are
asking themselves nervously after Kyrgyzstan became the third country
in the region to be swept by revolution.

In neighboring countries in Central Asia, opposition politicians sense
it’s their turn to re-enact the drama of 1989, when democracy swept
much of Eastern Europe as the Soviet empire started to crumble.

Kazakhstan, a vast, energy-rich nation where Western oil firms have
invested billions of dollars, is seen by many analysts as the next
target for a popular uprising. Possible ramifications abound: In
addition to oil — also a factor in Azerbaijan — the region has
Islamic fundamentalist movements suspected of links to terrorism, an
active drug trade, U.S. and Russian military bases, strategic
positioning on China’s doorstep, and no firm guarantees that any new
leaders would be more democratic than the current crop.

Russia has looked on with anxiety at the upheaval in its former Soviet
backyard, as allies in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan have been
toppled in succession and without regard to its wishes. It sees the
trend as a deep strategic threat to its role as the dominant regional
power.

A momentous process is unfolding in Central Asia and the Caucasus,
said Yevgeny Volk, Moscow director of the conservative
Washington-based Heritage Foundation think tank.

“These countries are facing a radical change of power, which did not
happen in the early 1990s,” he said.

“Unlike the Baltic states, which quickly adopted a market economy,
democratic society and rule of law, and Russia to a much lesser
extent, in Central Asia and the Caucasus, the communist-era leaders
stayed in power, which bred corruption and authoritarianism. … But
now the time is ripe for revolutions.”

The United States encouraged the Georgian and Ukrainian pro-Western
reformers now in charge. In Central Asia, seen as a vital source of
energy and a bulwark against Islamic radicalism, it favors stability
but is tentatively distancing itself from corrupt regimes that are
fanning religious extremism.

In Kazakhstan, President Nursultan Nazarbayev, a former Communist boss
who has been in power since 1989, will be seeking another seven-year
term next year. He contemptuously blamed Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev
on Friday for his “weakness” in allowing “rioters and thugs” to oust him.

But despite a crackdown on independent media and the opposition, the
64-year-old Nazarbayev is in trouble because of alleged nepotism amid
widespread poverty and his opponents’ growing popularity.

Last week, the long-fractured opposition chose as its single candidate
for the 2006 presidential vote Zharmakhan Tuyakbai — a former top
Nazarbayev ally who resigned last year as parliament speaker and head
of the presidential party.

“In Kazakhstan, if the government tries to falsify the election
results, the same scenario as in Kyrgyzstan cannot be ruled out,” said
Andrei Piontkovsky, an independent analyst.

In Uzbekistan, where thousands of political prisoners languish in
jails, hardline President Islam Karimov’s repressive rule with an
omnipresent secret police is seen as sufficient — for now — to keep
the lid on any unrest. But observers worry that after Kyrgyzstan,
Islamic radicals could launch an attempt to unseat Karimov.

Outside Central Asia, the likeliest candidate for revolution is seen
as Armenia, a key Russian ally on Russia’s southern flank in the
unstable Caucasus region. President Robert Kocharyan, whose contested
re-election to a second term in 2003 sparked opposition protests,
faces fresh elections for parliament and the presidency in 2007.

Critics say he has violently cracked down on dissent, allowed
corruption to flourish and done little to improve the lot of the people.

In Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev in 2003 succeeded his late father, Heidar
Aliyev, the longtime ruler in the Caspian state, marking the first
political dynasty in a former Soviet republic. The country will hold
parliamentary elections in November this year, which the opposition
sees as its best opportunity for change.

In Belarus, opposition activists staged a rally Friday in the capital
that was violently broken up by police. The opposition said it was
trying to start an uprising similar to Kyrgyzstan’s.

“Who’s next?” Noviye Izvestia asked on its front page Friday. “The
Kyrgyz precedent cannot fail to worry the leaders of other countries,
especially those countries where in the near future parliamentary and
presidential elections will be held.”

Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
March 28, 2005, Monday

ARMENIA’S PARLIAMENT RATIFIED THE ARMENIAN-POLISH DEFENSE COOPERATION
AGREEMENT

As reported by Armenia’s Defense Minister Serzhik Sarkisyan, the
agreement is aimed at forming mutual provisions in the sphere of
defense cooperation on the basis of partnership and equality. In
particular, envisaged is cooperation in the sphere of forming the
Armed Forces, logistics services, assistance to international
peacekeeping missions, military medicine, upgrading military
hardware, etc. In the framework of the fundamental agreement it is
also planned to sign individual agreements, protocols and annual
programs. Under the document the sides are regulating some issues
concerning intelligence data.

Source: Parlamentskaya Gazeta, March 24, 2005, p. 23

Translated by Andrei Ryabochkin

Agency WPS
What the Papers Say. Part B (Russia)
March 28, 2005, Monday

VIKTOR YUSHCHENKO WILL RETURN TO HIS OWN VETERANS

SOURCE: Kommersant, March 28, 2005, p. 10

by Boris Volkhonskii

President Viktor Yushchenko of Ukraine has finally given an answer to
the question of his attendance at celebrations of the 60th
anniversary of victory in World War II in Moscow on May 9: he’ll
attend the CIS summit of May 8, but will celebrate Victory Day at
Kreshchatik in Kyiv, together with Ukrainian World War II veterans.
Thus, the president of Ukraine has been added to the ranks of CIS
presidents who have refused to take part in festivities in Moscow,
and this event won’t have the propaganda effect Russian leaders have
counted on.

“I wouldn’t feel comfortable knowing that our own veterans are
celebrating the great Victory here, in Kyiv, while I’m in Moscow,”
the Ukrainian president stated on March 26. However, Yushchenko
promised he’d attend the CIS summit of May 8, and expressed the hope
that “Mr. President Vladimir Putin and other colleagues” would
understand his decision.

In any case, the Ukrainian president has been added to the ranks of
CIS presidents who have refused to take part in festivities in
Moscow. In March, the presidents of Lithuania and Estonia, Valdas
Adamkus and Arnold Ruutel, declined invitations to come to Moscow in
May. The issue remained unsettled in other capitals so far; according
to our sources, the number of “refusers” may reach half of the
presidents of CIS countries.

Each leader has his/her own reasons for refusal. Leaders of the
Baltic states account for it with the fact that for their nations the
World War II ended not in 1945, but at the start of the 1990s, when
the “occupational” troops were withdrawn. The fact that the
presidents of Lithuania and Estonia missed the opportunity to meet
with a multitude of global leaders hasn’t influenced their decisions.
A simple solution was found: U.S. President George Bush arrives in
Moscow en route to Riga on May 6; this is where the U.S.-Baltia
summit takes place.

President Mikhail Saakashvili of Georgia (the latest reports from
Tbilisi indicate he has no intention to attend Moscow either) refers
to the fact that he need to make preparations for George Bush’s visit
to Tbilisi on May 10-12, after the celebrations end in Moscow.

According to signals received from Baku, Azerbaijani President Ilham
Aliyev may also refuse to attend the CIS summit and celebrations of
Victory Day. His problems is different: Moscow hoped to avail itself
of this plea to have the Azerbaijani president seated to the table of
negotiations with his Armenian counterpart Robert Kocharyan on the
Nagorno-Karabakh problem. However, Baku has been more skeptical of
late with regard to the settlement of this problem and doesn’t seem
to be ready for summit talks.

As a result, the propaganda impact of the upcoming event could be
much less than Moscow might wish. The Kremlin intended to arrange the
celebrations of the 60th anniversary of Victory Day on an even
grander scale than the St. Petersburg tercentenary.

At the same time, many leaders of the states who have confirmed their
attendance in Moscow intend to add a fly in the ointment. Thus,
President Aleksander Kwasniewski of Poland intends to raise the issue
of censuring the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact to the Russian leaders
(which permitted Germany’s aggression against Poland and division of
the country); he also intends to elucidate Warsaw’s position with
regard to the Yalta Accords of 1945, which divided Europe into two
opposed camps.

President Vaira Vike-Freiberga of Latvia, the only Baltic leader to
arrive in Moscow, is surely not very eager to do that. On the one
hand, this is because she wishes to improve the complicated relations
with Moscow; on the other hand, solving all the problems within a
couple of days of their stay in Moscow is impossible.

Finally, Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s participation in
the Moscow festivities is also greatly in doubt. The media reported a
couple of weeks ago that the Japanese prime minister refused to
attend Moscow referring to the fact that by the timeframe the
celebrations coincide with the second half of the parliamentary
session. Apparently, this excuse seemed to be unconvincing even for
the Japanese authorities and the Foreign Ministry of Japan
immediately issued a refutation, in which it noted that the issue is
not settled yet. To all appearances, it is being solved and Tokyo is
yet unable to determine what suits its interests more – a gesture of
goodwill or the display of firmness in the dispute over the northern
territories.

Translated by Andrei Ryabochkin

ARKA News Agency
March 28 2005

Year of Russia in Armenia and year of Armenia in Russia to give new
impetus to bilateral relations development

President of Armenia receives today the Ambassador Extraordinary and
Plenipotentiary of France to Armenia

RA NA Speaker meets with Secretary General of International
Association of Parliaments and Businessmen

President-Chaired meeting discusses elaboration of Armenia-EU
partnership program

Head of Armenian Parliament and U.S. Secretary of State exchange
messages

Russian political scientist forecasts revolutions in Kazakhstan,
Belarus, Armenia

International scientific seminar to be held in Armenia on April 18-19

Armenia has forcible arguments in favour of strengthening political,
economic and ethnic-confessional alliance with Russia

DIGITECH 2005 information, telecommunication technologies exhibition
to be held from Sep 30 to Oct 2 in Yerevan

*********************************************************************

YEAR OF RUSSIA IN ARMENIA AND YEAR OF ARMENIA IN RUSSIA TO GIVE NEW
IMPETUS TO BILATERAL RELATIONS DEVELOPMENT

YEREVAN, March 28. /ARKA/. The year of Russia in Armenia and the year
of Armenia in Russia will give a new impetus to the development of
bilateral relations, as Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan
told journalists. In his opinion, such a kind of events won’t be
limited by frames of culture programs, but will become the
demonstration of present and future contacts and a new stimulus for
bilateral relations development. `Our interrelations has reached
quite high level and it seems there is no room to move forward, but
this isn’t so, but plenty is still to be done and there is room for
cooperation enlargement’, Oskanyan said. In his words, the events
will make political, economic and culture ties between the two
countries closer.
Russia’s Year opening ceremony was held on March 25, 2005 in Yerevan.
Armenian President Robert Kocharyan and Russian President Vladimir
Putin were present at the ceremony. M.V. -0–

*********************************************************************

PRESIDENT OF ARMENIA RECEIVES TODAY THE AMBASSADOR EXTRAORDINARY AND
PLENIPOTENTIARY OF FRANCE TO ARMENIA

YEREVAN, March 28. /ARKA/. The President of Armenia Robert Kocharian
received today the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of
France to Armenia Henry Cuny. As the Press Service of RA President
told ARKA News Agency, the sides discussed issues concerning the
forthcoming visit of the Armenian President to France during the
meeting. Issues of Armenian and EU cooperation, as well as current
state and perspectives of Armenian-French economic relations were
taken up. Kocharian and Cuny also touched upon the Karabakh conflict
settlement and regional cooperation issues.
To remind, the visit of Robert Kocharian to France is scheduled for
April of 2005. L.V.–0 –

*********************************************************************

RA NA SPEAKER MEETS WITH SECRETARY GENERAL OF INTERNATIONAL
ASSOCIATION OF PARLIAMENTS AND BUSINESSMEN

YEREVAN, March 28. /ARKA/. Speaker of the RA National Assembly Artur
Baghdasaryan held a meeting today with Secretary General of the
International Association of Parliaments and Businessmen Frederick
hide Chambers. The public relations department, RA parliament,
reports that during the meeting Mr. Chambers pointed out that the
Association is a nongovernmental organization founded in Great
Britain in 1977. He said that the Association aims at establishing
direct contacts between parliamentarians and businessmen, which
raises parliamentarians’ awareness of business affairs and
contributes to a dialogue between parliamentarians and businessmen.
Chamber stressed that the Association has its branches in 16
countries – Finland, France, Belgium, Spain, Holland, Sweden, the
USA, Canada, New Zealand, as well as unites 300 international
organizations.
During the meeting the sided reached an arrangement on considering
the issue of the RA Parliament joining the Association. The sides
believe that it will afford Armenian parliamentarians additional
opportunities in establishing new business contacts as well as
contribute to the exchange of experience and flow of foreign
investments in Armenia’s economy. P.T. -0–

*********************************************************************

PRESIDENT-CHAIRED MEETING DISCUSSES ELABORATION OF ARMENIA-EU
PARTNERSHIP PROGRAM

YEREVAN, March 28. /ARKA/. RA President Robert Kocharyan has held a
meeting with cabinet members to discuss the elaboration of a program
of individual partnership between Armenia and the European Union. The
RA presidential press service reports that the program is being
elaborated as part of the EU neighborhood policy. President Kocharyan
pointed out the necessity of deciding on `what we are going to do,
what directions should be included in the program, and at what speed
we are ready to move.’ According to him it is a most important moment
for the country, as `we can get a chance of serious assistance in the
ongoing reforms, in specifying their further direction, and, with the
EU structures’ aid, focusing on implementing them.’
According to the President, in selecting programs and directions of
cooperation attention should be paid to the points indicated in the
European Commission’s recent report on Armenia.
Kocharyan instructed all the government institutions to present
specific programs within a month. The programs are to be discussed by
special interagency commissions and, after being examined by experts,
sent to the EU Cooperation Council. P.T. -0–

*********************************************************************

HEAD OF ARMENIAN PARLIAMENT AND U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE EXCHANGE
MESSAGES

YEREVAN, March 28. /ARKA/. The Speaker of National Assembly of the
Republic of Armenia Arthur Baghdasaryan and U.S. Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice exchanged messages. As the Public Relations
Department of RA NA told ARKA News Agency, in answer to the
congratulatory message of Arthur Baghdasaryan, Rice stated: `My
intention is to work for the sake of future, which will provide
peace, security and freedom for everybody. The challenges are
numerous, and there is a lot of work to do in future ‘. US Secretary
of State thanked NA President for best wishes and highlighted the
work, especially in the aspect of fulfilling the above-mentioned
reforms in the future. L.V.-0–

*********************************************************************

RUSSIAN POLITICAL SCIENTIST FORECASTS REVOLUTIONS IN KAZAKHSTAN,
BELARUS, ARMENIA

YEREVAN, March 28. /ARKA/. In the near future, Revolutions may break
out in Kazakhstan, Belarus and, probably, in Armenia – states with
soft authoritarian regimes, Director of the Institute of Political
Research Sergey Markov stated in his interview to NewsInfo. According
to him, the only obstacle to revolutions in these countries is the
popularity enjoyed by their Presidents. `Nazabayev is still popular
enough in Kazakhstan, just as Lukoshenko in Belarus. Some trends to
speeding up revolutionary processes can be observed in Belarus and
Armenia. The events are being sped up by America, which wants to have
leaders loyal to the West. In Belarus, the opposition is even being
financially fed up,’ Markov said. P.T. -0–

*********************************************************************

INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC SEMINAR TO BE HELD IN ARMENIA ON APRIL 18-19

YEREVAN, March 28. /ARKA/. International scientific seminar dedicated
to commercialization of science will be held in Armenia on April
18-19, stated Artak Sagradyan, the RA Deputy Minister of Science and
Education during the parliamentarian hearings on the concept of
scientific reforms today. He noted that the seminar is organized by
International Science and Technology Centre. According to Sagradyan,
heads of scientific institutes, scientists and interested persons
will take part in the seminar. It is necessary to create the strategy
of scientific-technical interests to integrate in international
scientific processes’, he said. L.V.-0 –

*********************************************************************

ARMENIA HAS FORCIBLE ARGUMENTS IN FAVOUR OF STRENGTHENING POLITICAL,
ECONOMIC AND ETHNIC-CONFESSIONAL ALLIANCE WITH RUSSIA

YEREVAN, March 28. /ARKA/. Armenia has forcible arguments in favour
of strengthening political, economic and ethnic-confessional alliance
with Russia, RBC quotes Professor at Russian President-affiliated
State Service Academy Oxana Gaman-Golutvina.
In her words, the Year of Russia in Armenia and Russian President’s
visit to Yerevan can promote improvement of relations and crisis in
Kyrgyzstan may strengthen them rather than weaken. `I think the visit
planned long ago came just in time’, she said.
The RBC also quoted Modern Socialism Institute Director Alexey
Podberezkin as saying `we supported Armenia in areas of security and
defence. But Azerbaijan, Armenia’s neighbour and rival, is in good
terms with Russia’. In his opinion, it would be very `stupid and
senseless’ for Russia to improve relations with Armenia deteriorating
them with Azerbaijan. The expert thinks Russia’s top aim not to
destabilize the situation in the region. `I sure Russia can help
these countries to achieve considerable improvements’, he said.
Podberezkin is convinced the best means of influence is Armenians
living in Russia. There are also more delicate levers of influence,
such as currency export that can be restricted or make unlimited. In
his opinion, these means are more effective than threat or military
cooperation. M.V. -0–

*********************************************************************

DIGITECH 2005 INFORMATION, TELECOMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES EXHIBITION
TO BE HELD FROM SEP 30 TO OCT 2 IN YEREVAN

YEREVAN, March 28. /ARKA/. A three-day information and
telecommunication technologies exhibition titled DIGITECH 2005 is to
be opened on September 30 in Yerevan. According to Information
Technologies Enterprises Union’s and Enterprises Incubator fund’s
joint press release, computer equipment as well as information and
telecommunication technologies for families and business will be
displayed at the exposition.
The exposition aim is to show the latest achievements in information
technologies area, to promote Armenian IT companies’ activity and to
present Armenia in the world market. Besides, the event is focused on
establishing traditions in Armenia to conduct expositions.
According to the press release, Information Technologies in Practical
Use conference is planned to be opened on September 30 in Yerevan as
well. The conference aim is to create favorable environment for the
businessmen consuming IT companies’ production.
The exposition and the conference are organized by Enterprises
Incubator fund and Information Technologies Enterprises Union. A
number of events, including contests on programming and E-content,
will be held before the exposition and the conference. M.V. -0–

Washington Post
March 28 2005

Picnic Is No Party In the New Basra

Uproar Over Armed Attack on Student Event Redraws Debate on Islam’s
Role and Reach

By Anthony Shadid
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, March 29, 2005; Page A09

BASRA, Iraq, March 28 — Celia Garabet thought students were
roughhousing. Sinan Saeed was sure a fight had erupted. Within a few
minutes, on a sunny day at a riverside park, they realized something
different was afoot. A group of Shiite Muslim militiamen with rifles,
pistols, thick wire cables and sticks had charged into crowds of
hundreds at a college picnic. They fired shots, beat students and
hauled some of them away in pickup trucks. The transgressions: men
dancing and singing, music playing and couples mixing.

That melee on March 15 and its fallout have redrawn the debate that
has shadowed Iraq’s second-largest city since the U.S. invasion in
2003: What is the role of Islam in daily life? In once-libertine
Basra, a battered port in southern Iraq near the Persian Gulf, the
question dominates everything these days, from the political parties
in power to the style of dress in the streets.

In the days that followed the melee, hundreds of students, angry
about the injuries and arrests, marched on the school administration
building and then the governor’s office, demanding an apology and,
more important, the dissolution of the dreaded campus morality
police. The militiamen who attacked the picnickers at first boasted
of stamping out debauchery, even distributing videos of the event.
But, gauging the popular revulsion, they later admitted to what they
termed mistakes. The governor, himself an Islamic activist, urged
dialogue to calm a roiled city and deemed the case closed, even as
students insisted they remained unsatisfied.

To many in Basra the students managed what no local party or
politician had yet done: They interrupted, if briefly, a tide of
religious conservatism that has shuttered liquor stores in a city
that once had dozens, meted out arbitrary justice and encouraged
women to wear a veil and dress in a way considered modest.

“The students broke through the barriers of fear,” said Ali Abbas
Khafif, a 55-year-old writer and union organizer jailed for 23 years
under former president Saddam Hussein. “This was the first mass
response to religious power.”

The victory may be fleeting in a city where Islamic activism and guns
often go hand in hand. Even in their moment of triumph, many secular
students acknowledge they are fighting a losing battle; some suggest
it is already lost.

“We have felt both our weakness and our strength,” said Saif Emad,
24.

The day began with eight yellow school buses lined up by 10 a.m. at
one of the two campuses of Basra University, a sprawling expanse
where pink bougainvillea interrupts a dreary landscape. Hundreds of
students from the university’s engineering college piled into the
buses. They were joined at Andalus Park by hundreds more on foot and
in their own cars. By 10:30 a.m., there were from 500 to 750 students
and guests at a picnic the university had approved.

Young men started playing soccer. Others went to buy ice cream. The
more boisterous began dancing to a song, “He Went to Basra and Forgot
Me,” by Ali Hatem, an Iraqi singer. A few grew exuberant, thrusting
tape players along with red-and-white scarves into the air. Most of
the women were veiled, although a handful, including some Christians,
went bareheaded.

“All of a sudden, students started running,” recalled Garabet, 21, a
civil engineering student.

At that moment, from 20 to 40 militiamen loyal to the militant young
Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr and his Mahdi Army charged into the
two-acre park of overgrown grass, concrete picnic tables and paths of
colored tiles. Some of them wore checkered headscarves over their
faces, others black balaclavas. They carried sticks, cable, pistols
and rifles, a few with a weapon in each hand. They were accompanied
by two clerics in robes and turbans: Abdullah Menshadawi and Abdullah
Zaydi.

Garabet, an unveiled woman from an Armenian Christian family, never
saw her assailant. He struck her twice in the back of the head with
his fist. “I was afraid to turn around,” she said.

She stumbled, then headed with others toward the black steel gate.
Militiamen were shouting “Infidels!”

“It was chaos,” she said. “Everyone was yelling.”

As she walked out the gate, a second blow to the back of her head
almost knocked her unconscious. Two weeks later, she is still wearing
a neck brace, and her vision is blurred. She has numbness in one hand
and suffers severe headaches.

At about that time, students said, a militiamen struck an unveiled
21-year-old, Zeinab Faruq, with a stick. Another accosted a couple,
they recalled. The militiaman fired two shots at the legs of
22-year-old Muhsin Walid; another shot grazed Walid’s hand.

Sinan Saeed, 24, a husky mechanical engineering student, described
seeing one girl run toward the exit, then seeing a man stumble over
her. Both were beaten with sticks and cables as they lay on the
ground. Some surged through the gate; others tried to clamber over
the chain-link fence, Saeed said. At the exit, militiamen slapped
students with one hand, gripping their pistols in the other.

Students accused the men of stealing cell phones, cameras, gold
jewelry and tape players as the students left.

“They focused on the women,” said Saeed’s friend, Osama Adnan. “They
were beating them viciously.”

“Without any discrimination,” Saeed added.

Within half an hour, the fracas had ended. University officials said
15 students were seriously injured. The militiamen detained about 10
students, who were taken to the local office of the Sadr movement
before being released that evening. By all accounts, police were
present in force but did not intervene. The students insist that the
police were cowed by Menshadawi, one of the two clerics.

One student, who spoke on condition of anonymity, recalled Menshadawi
shouting, “There is no secular government! There is only the
government of the Mahdi Army!” as he stood on some park steps
brandishing a stick and a pistol.

In the Sadr movement’s office, Heidar Jabari acknowledged excesses
but defended the action. “There was a mistake in our execution, but
we had the right to intervene,” he said.

Tall, with a friendly demeanor, Jabari said he had warned students
two days before the incident that the picnic was inappropriate.
Shiites were still observing the sacred month of Muharram, he said,
and a suicide bomb had recently killed 125 people in the southern
city of Hilla. “The blood from there was still fresh,” he said. “No
one listened to us.”

Jabari conceded that students were hurt and the beatings “went beyond
what was legitimate.” But, he added, “They say freedom means they can
do what they want. This is not freedom. Freedom does not mean you can
transgress traditions.” He spoke calmly but with clerical sternness.
“There are traditions and rules in an Eastern society that are
different from a Western society. Every Iraqi has a right to act
against these transgressions.”

To bolster their case, the movement, one of Basra’s most powerful,
released a video of footage it had gathered of the picnic. It
distributed it to local stores, which in turn sold it for about $1.

The images were relatively tame, even by Basra’s conservative
standards. Men are shown dancing. In the most exuberant moment, one
dancer ties a scarf around his waist and swivels his hips. A man
pushes a woman on a swing.

“At a wedding party, they do a lot more than that,” said Saleh Najim,
the dean of the engineering college.

The night of the confrontation, word of a protest went out, and the
following morning about 150 students gathered at the engineering
college, itself divided between secular and religious students. Their
numbers swelling as they went, they made their way to the president’s
office and issued their demands: no work for the Islamic groups on
campus, an official apology, punishment of the militiamen, return of
stolen property, disbandment of the much-feared security committees
that act as morality police in each university department and their
replacement with Iraqi army troops.

Students vowed to remain on strike until the demands were met.
Classes were canceled.

The next day, the students convened again. This time, they said, they
planned to head to the governor’s office. Police tried to block their
path, firing shots into the air at the gate, but they managed to
leave through another exit in 15 school buses. Once at the governor’s
office, they found hundreds of students from smaller colleges and a
few high schools already gathered. Inside, the governor met with
members of the city council and the Sadr movement, student
representatives and school officials.

Two hours later, students recalled, Mohammed Abadi, the president of
the city council, emerged. The students’ demands would be met, he
declared. He read a text from a microphone mounted on a police car
outside the office, going over each demand.

“We will compensate what was lost,” students recalled Abadi saying.

“What was stolen!” someone shouted from the crowd, correcting Abadi.

Following Abadi’s statement, city officials and Sadr’s movement
treated the matter as closed.

“The issue is settled,” said Mohammed Musabah, who took over as
governor of Basra the day of the melee. He acknowledged that police
had not arrested anyone, as students had demanded. But, he said in an
interview, “We spoke with them in a stern tone. Both sides wanted to
resolve it by way of dialogue.”

Few students this week said they were thinking about dialogue. Nor
did they seem to believe their demands had been met.

Saeed said that as he passed out leaflets during the protests, a
student sympathetic to Moqtada Sadr tapped his shoulder. “Be
careful,” he said he was told menacingly. On the wall at the campus
gate, scrawled in black, graffiti reads, “Basra remains Moqtada’s
Basra.”

“For a moment, we felt the strength of our voices,” Saeed said. “We
were making up our own minds.”

But, he added, “You can see on campus that students are still scared
to speak.”

California Courier Online, March 31, 2005

1 – Commentary
Turks Are Biggest Boosters of
90th Anniversary Commemoration
By Harut Sassounian
California Courier Publisher
2 – Jews in Armenia Asks Worldwide
Jewry to Recognize 1915 Genocide
3 – Amirian is Among
30 Semi-Finalists
In L.A. County
4 – Dr. Kalayjian’s Team Returns
From Treating Tsunami Victims
5 – Sacramento Ceremony Honors
AFI Chair Maria Mehranian
6 – UC Berkeley Armenian Studies Program,
AGBU Co-host April 9 Genocide Symposium

*************************************************************************
1 – Commentary

Turks Are Biggest Boosters of
90th Anniversary Commemoration
By Harut Sassounian
Publisher, The California Courier

Several months ago, when Armenians started planning commemorative
activities for the 90th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide, little did
they know that the biggest boost for their efforts would come from the
Turks themselves!
Long before the upcoming observances on April 24, Turkish journalists
started publishing articles with ominous headlines such as, “The
Approaching Armenian Tsunami” or “The Anniversary of the Armenian Genocide
Would Be a Big Nightmare for Turkey.” Knowing full well the extent of their
guilt and the fact that no amount of denial had succeeded in covering up
the crimes committed in 1915, the Turkish leaders thought it wise to make a
pre-emptive strike in order to undermine the planned Armenian commemorative
activities.
The Turks did not realize that their actions were effectively helping to
publicize the Armenian Genocide to millions of their own citizens, many of
whom know little or nothing about these crimes, and to millions of other
people around the world.
The Turkish government enthusiastically embarked on forming so-called
“expert committees” and allocated huge sums of money for their revisionist
activities. As a result, before the Armenians organized a single
commemorative event, the Turks had already made the entire world aware that
this year was the 90th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide.
Here are a few examples of recent Turkish contributions to the
commemoration of the Armenian Genocide:
* Prof. Justin McCarthy of the University of Louisville was invited
toTurkey last week to deliver a series of lectures on the Armenian Genocide
and meet with the local media. Zaman newspaper reported that he spoke about
“The Reality of the Armenian Genocide,” at a conference held in the Turkish
Parliament. Prof. McCarthy, a revisionist historian who is well known to
his Turkish masters and unknown to everyone else, told the Turks that his
recent book on this issue “should be thrown from the air by plane.” When
the Turks
realize that they have been wasting their money on this charlatan, they may
decide to dump him along with his book.
* The Assembly of Turkish American Associations (ATAA), with the assistance
of the handsomely compensated Livingston Group lobbying firm, organized a
“Capitol Forum” on the Armenian Genocide, at the Rayburn Building of the
House of Representatives, on March 22. The guest speaker was Prof. Turkkaya
Ataov, another charlatan whom I confronted at the United Nations in Geneva
some 20 years ago. The Turkish Forum was trying to imitate the Armenian
Genocide commemorations organized by Armenians in April of every year in
the same congressional building. The logical outcome of this Turkish event
was the propagation of the Armenian Genocide in Washington without any
effort or expense from Armenians.
* Prof. Yusuf Halajoglu, the President of the Turkish Historical Society,
suggested during a university lecture that Turkey demand the re-trial of
Soghomon Tehlirian who was set free by a German court in 1921, after
assassinating Talaat Pasha, the mastermind of the Armenian Genocide.
General Kilinc Tuncer, the Secretary of Turkey’s powerful National Security
Council, who was present at the lecture, put an immediate stop to this
counter-productive idea by pointing out that during the original trial, the
Ottoman government’s crimes came under scrutiny, rather than Tehlirian’s
act. He cautioned that re-opening the court case would end up putting
Turkey
on trial!
* After the world-renowned Turkish novelist Orhan Pamuk told a foreign
journalist that Turks had killed one million Armenians in 1915, scenes
reminiscent of the Nazi era were repeated on Turkish streets last Sunday.
Pamuk’s books were collected and burned in a public ceremony, attended by
Turkish parliamentarians. No wonder Hitler’s book is a best-seller in
Turkey these days. Such Nazi tactics, reported by the Turkish Daily News,
helped further publicize the fact that a prominent Turkish writer had
acknowledged
the Armenian Genocide. It is ironic that while the Turks are trying to
convince the Europeans that they are ready to join the EU, they are
shooting themselves in the foot, by threatening a prominent writer and
burning his
books!
It is expected that in the coming weeks, the Turks would continue doing
their share in publicizing the Armenian Genocide. Hurriyet reported about
Turkish plans to hold a protest in front of the White House on April 24.
Armenians should not only welcome such an initiative, but also do
everything possible to assist the Turks to ensure such a gathering takes
place. Just imagine the worldwide media coverage generated by the
confrontation between Turks and Armenians in front of the White House on
April 24.
Armenians should be grateful for all the Turkish endeavors in the
globalization of the 90th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide.
**************************************************************************
2 – Jews in Armenia Asks Worldwide
Jewry to Recognize 1915 Genocide
YEREVAN (Armenpress) – The Jewish community of Armenia called Tuesday on
all Jewish organizations worldwide urging them to recognize the Armenian
genocide.
A statement by the community says the government of the Ottoman Turkey
committed a horrible crime by exterminating 1.5 million of Armenians who
were its citizens. It says this fact was silenced for decades and was not
condemned by the international community.
The Holocaust would have never taken place had the peoples of the world
condemned the Armenian genocide at that time, as they have now risen to
fight the terrorism,” the statement says.
It also says governments should put aside their political or economic
interests and condemn the Armenian genocide. It says the recognition of the
Armenian genocide will not be aimed against the Turkish people and quite
the contrary, it will do it a credit in the eyes of the civilized humanity,
as was the case with Germany, when its government recognized the fact of
elimination of 6 million Jews during World War II.
“On the eve of the 90th anniversary of this horrible crime we call on those
who emphasize the acknowledgment of the historical truth and ask them to
pay tribute to the memory of the innocent
victims,” the statement says.
*****************************************************************
3 – Amirian is Among
30 Semi-Finalists
In L.A. County
LOS ANGELES – Dro Amirian, 17, of La Crescenta, Calif., was named one of
the 30 semi-finalists in the 2005 Spotlight Awards Visual Arts Competition
of the Music Center of Los Angeles County. The 30 semi-finalists were
selected from nearly 5,000 high school student artists in photography and
two-dimensional design.
Amirian is a student at Clark Magnet High School in the Glendale Unified
School District. He participated in the 2-Dimensional Design category.
All the semifinalists will have their works of art displayed at the Bobbie
Greefield Gallery in Bergamot Station in Santa Monia.
As part of the Spotlight Award program, semifinalists attend master classes
with nationally and internationally recognized artists and attend private
museum tours in the Southland.
The submissions were reviewed by leading artists and arts professionals. In
making their selections, the judges considered the technical expertise
involved in each work including its craft and visual quality.
The winners will receive their trophies during a sold-out evening at the
Dorothy Chandler Pavilion on April 16.
**************************************************************************
4 – Dr. Kalayjian’s Team Returns
From Treating Tsunami Victims
BATTICALOA, SRI LANKA – Mental Health Outreach Project (MHOP), a disaster
relief organization of Association for Disaster & Mass Trauma Studies,
headed by Adjunct Professor of Psychology at Fordham University, Dr. Anie
Kalayjian, organized teams of professional volunteers to go to Sri Lanka to
deliver psychological first aid, training, and counseling to the thousands
impacted by the tsunami.
The first team has just returned from its mission after working with
hundreds of survivors in camps, refugee settlements, schools, and colleges.
Hosted by the UNITED SIKHS, a worldwide humanitarian organization, MHOP has
collaborated with the local Sri Lankan authorities and psychosocial workers
to provide ongoing psychological support to the thousands of people
affected by the disaster.
Members of the clinical team were Dr. Kalayjian, team coordinator &
Director, Dr. Kuriansky of Columbia University, Nancy Moore, Fordham
University, and Hishara Godanka, University of Texas. Other team members
were Drs. Christina Hoven and Donald Mendall, Columbia University and
Lousine Shamamian, a documentarian.
The second team of the MHOP met with the first team in Colombo, before
their departure to Batticaloa. They received training, orientation, and
assignment from Dr. Kalayjian. Team three left on March 8.
Those interested in sending funding or getting involved as a volunteer may
contact Dr. Kalayjian at [email protected], WWWMeaningfulworld.com, or
(201)941-2266.
**************************************************************************
5 – Sacramento Ceremony Honors
AFI Chair Maria Mehranian
GLENDALE – Maria Mehranian, Chair of Armenia Fund Inc., was named the Woman
of the Year for the 44th California State District by Assemblymember Carol
Liu (D-Pasadena) during a special ceremony at the State Assembly chambers
in Sacramento.
Chosen by the Legislative Women’s Caucus, Mehranian was one of 80 women
honored for making significant contributions to their respective
communities. “Maria is a role-model for all women, both for her business
leadership and her extraordinary contributions to the Armenian and La
Cañada Flintridge communities,” Liu said in a prepared statement.
Partnering with the California Museum for History, Women and Arts,
California’s First Lady, Maria Shriver, and the State Assembly unveiled an
exhibit entitled Serving California: 2005 Woman of the Year Honorees.
“Every one of these women and everything they do makes our state a better
place to live,” said Shriver in a prepared statement. The exhibit, on
display through April 30, features pictures and biographies of the women
honored by the Legislature.
Mehranian is managing partner at Cordoba Corporation, an international
planning and development company based in Los Angeles. In addition to
Armenia Fund, Mehranian’s community involvement includes chairing the La
Cañada Flintridge Planning Commission. In 2004 Armenia Fund, Inc., with its
affiliates around the world, raised over $11.5 million for infrastructure
development and humanitarian aid projects in Armenia and Nagorno Karabagh.
For more information on Armenia Fund, Inc., visit or
call 818.243.6222.
**************************************************************************
6 – UC Berkeley Armenian Studies Program,
AGBU Co-host April 9 Genocide Symposium
SAN FRANCISCO – On April 9, from 2 pm to 6 p.m., five renowned scholars
from around the United States will participate in a panel on the Armenian
Genocide at the UC Berkeley at 125 Dwinelle
Hall. Co-sponsored by the UC Berkeley Armenian Studies Program and AGBU
Silicon Valley, the Symposium will focus on “The Past as Present:
Representations and Consequences of the Armenian Genocide” and will feature
Professor Margaret Anderson (UC Berkeley), Professor Stephan Astourian (UC
Berkeley), Professor Levon Marashlian (Glendale Community College),
Professor Marc Nichanian (Wesleyan University), and Jack Weinstein
(Director, Facing History and Ourselves).
The workshop will focus on the contemporary issues stemming from the
genocide rather than the genocide itself, as summed up by its title,
“Representations and Consequences of the Armenian Genocide.” The speakers
will discuss the memoirs dealing with the catastrophe and provide an
assessment of the historiography of that event. They will talk about what
can be learned from Holocaust studies and the denial of the genocide, and
how the Armenian diaspora has formed and evolved as a result of its
occurrence. Finally, the workshop will talk about the necessity of genocide
education in modern-day societies.
Established in 1995 by the William Saroyan and Krouzian Endowments, the
Armenian Studies Program initially supported a visiting professorship in
Contemporary Armenian Studies. In 2002, Dr. Astourian was appointed as
Executive Director of the ASP and Assistant Adjunct Professor in History at
UC Berkeley. Currently, a $2M fundraising campaign is underway to raise the
endowment to $3M, enabling Dr. Astourian to increase the number of courses
offered and expand the scope of the ASP within the Slavic-Eurasian
institute at UC Berkeley.
At the completion of the campaign, the Armenian Studies Program at Berkeley
will offer three-level language courses, one one-semester course with
visiting professor in such fields as anthropology and art history, and
conferences and lectures throughout the year. In reaching this $3-million
goal, the ASP aims to become the leading Contemporary Armenian Studies
Program in the United States, producing strong professional and academic
leaders in the community and bringing to the forefront the significance of
modern Armenian history and politics.
***************************************************************************
**************************************************************************
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From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Agency WPS
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
March 28, 2005, Monday

GEORGIA SWAPS BASES FOR APARTMENTS

SOURCE: Kommersant, March 24, 2005, p. 10

by Vladimir Novikov

Russian-Georgian consultations on the level of foreign ministries
with regard to withdrawal of Russian military bases from Batumi and
Akhalkalaki began in Moscow on March 24. The day before Georgia’s
Foreign Minister Salome Zourabichvili stated that incidents similar
to the incident, which happened on the Georgian-Abkhazian
administrative border, might frustrate the process of negotiations.

Mrs. Zourabichvili implied the incident which occurred in the village
of Ganmukhuri (Georgia) in the zone of Georgian-Abkhazian conflict
last Tuesday. A large group of the Russian peacekeepers entered the
village. They surrounded the building in which a unit of the Georgian
MVD’s special forces had settled, and demanded them to surrender
their weapons. They were given a refusal. UN military mediators
interfered in the situation. As a result of the talks between Russian
peacekeepers with Gigi Ugulava, governor of the Samegrelo district,
the tension was relieved.

According to Russian peacekeepers, conducting an exercise in their
responsibility area they accidentally faced a unit of the Georgian
MVD’s special forces and decided to verify the legality of its stay
there. Georgia’s Foreign Minister Vano Merabichvili stressed that
taking a Spetsnaz into the village of Ganmukhuri at request of the
local Georgians was a forced measure, because the Abkhazian police
had held a cleanup there, as a result of which locals were injured.

This incident may affect the process of talks on the problem, which
doesn’t directly concern the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict. Discussed
at the consultations are the terms and conditions of withdrawing the
Russian military bases; responsible for the Russian side is Igor
Savolsky, an ambassador on special errands, while Deputy Foreign
Minister of Georgia Merab Antadze is head of the Georgian delegation.

Tbilisi has taken the following stand: Georgia is ready to accept
withdrawal of the Russian forces within 4 years (by January 1, 2009),
with the stipulation that the troops are present “in the withdrawal
mode” during this entire period, i.e. no exercises are to be held and
no new military hardware is introduced, against the background of
personnel cutbacks. Georgia is also ready to present Russian officers
apartments in downtown Tbilisi, which they would be able to sell with
profit before their leave to Russia; this is the maximal compensation
Georgia can offer.

Besides, Georgia is ready to find $10-15 million (it hopes to get
this money from international donors) to transport the personnel and
the military equipment to Russia. Georgia’s Foreign Minister Salome
Zourabichvili thinks the figure of $300-350 million announced by
Moscow is unreal. However, most important in the position of Moscow
is not the demand for money, but the circumstance that Russia flatly
refuses to take the troops “into the withdrawal mode.” Even if Moscow
agrees to the four-year period, the Defense Ministry insists that the
bases be functioning in the common mode within this period.

Georgian experts fear that Moscow will procrastinate again and when
the timeframe elapses it would refer to resistance of locals – as is
now happening in Transnistria and might occur in Samtskhe-Dzhavakheti
(of south Georgia where a base is stationed) populated by Armenians.

Translated by Andrei Ryabochkin

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress