POLITICAL ANALYSIS: GEORGIAN-ARMENIAN HARMONY
By M. Alkhazashvili
The Messenger, Georgia
Oct 4 2005
During an official visit to Yerevan, Armenia September 29-30 by
Georgian Prime-Minister Zurab Noghaideli, several pertinent issues
regarding the two countries’ economic relations were agreed upon
and several significant political statements were made as well. The
agreement reached by Armenian and Georgian representatives is of key
importance not only for the two countries, but for the Caucasus region
as a whole.
Part of the agreement regards the restructuring of Georgia’s USD
12 million debt towards Armenia. The sides agreed again to deepen
cooperation in the energy and transportation spheres. On the table
at negotiations was the issue of constructing a 330-km electric
transmission line linking the Georgian and Armenian energy systems.
The newspaper Rezonansi writes that the Georgians side considers
this to be a potential additional resource for energy supply. It is
decided that the Georgian and Armenian energy systems will work in a
parallel regime, much as Armenia does with Iran. This will strengthen
the stability of Georgia’s energy system.
Zurab Noghaideli strove to calm Armenian fears that certain projects
underway in Georgia will not go against Armenian interests. He then
stated that Georgia is ready to assist in the creation of transport
links with Armenia, namely automobile, railway and air transport in
the directions Tbilisi-Yerevan and Yerevan-Batumi directions.
Zurab Noghaideli and his Armenian counterpart Andranik Margarian
applied together to the European Union to allot a grant for the
rehabilitation of the Airum-Sadakhlo highway that connects the two
countries.
Margarian thanked Noghaideli for Georgia’s re-activation of the
Poti-Kavkaz ferry route, which gives Armenia a stable route to
Russia. In addition, the Armenian Prime-Minister thanked the Georgian
side for the stable functioning of the vehicle route linking the two
countries. Akhali Taoba reports that the Armenian side mentioned that
since the creation of the Patrol Police, bribe-taking and blackmail
on this road has all but completely ceased.
The meeting in Yerevan also witnessed an agreement in regard
to certain Armenian activist groups’ demands for autonomy of the
Javakheti region. As Noghaideli stated, “the people that demand the
autonomy of Javakheti are only a small part of the community there
and do not speak for the whole population.”
At the same time, he said, all citizens of Georgia will have
equal opportunities for development. For his part, the Armenian
Prime-Minister stated that the issue of Javakheti’s autonomy would
never be on the agenda. “This issue is always mentioned when somebody
wants to use it for his own interests,” he said, as quoted by Akhali
Taoba.
Armenia expressed its satisfaction with Georgian plans to restore
the Tbilisi-Akhalkalaki road within the framework of the United
States’ Millennium Challenge program. This, they say, will help the
Samtskhe-Javakheti region’s future integration into Georgia and also
serve as a “window to Europe” for Armenia.
During the visit the Georgian side once again warned Armenia that given
safety concerns, large cargo-bearing vehicles will not be allowed to
cross the Georgian-Russian boarder checkpoint at Kazbegi-Lars this
coming winter.
On Noghaideli’s demand, Georgian specialists will soon be given the
opportunity to tour the Armenian Atomic Energy Plant in order to
inspect the safety situation there. The Armenian side maintains that
the plant is completely safe and that it poses no risk to neighboring
countries.

AKHALKALAKI’S ARMENIAN POPULATION DEMANDED AUTONOMY
The Messenger, Georgia
Oct 4 2005
Press Scanner
As reported in Akhali Taoba, Armenian population of Javakheti region
prepared a big surprise for the central government as well as for the
whole country this fall. The paper notes that separatist organization
“Virk” held a forum with the Armenian population of Javakheti region.
According to the article, about 800 Armenians took part in this
forum and demanded that the government create an Armenian autonomy
in the region.
According to Akhali Taoba, the government thinks that Russian
special services are behind this demand of the Armenian population,
although “Virk” and close friends of this organization are reportedly
insulted by those allegations. The paper reports that at the forum
the participants expressed their complaints toward the government.
According to them, “Virk” hopes Georgian society will correctly
understand their demand for autonomy.
However, according to the article, Georgians have been less than
sympathetic to their demands; Virk has reportedly received obscene
messages from Georgian citizens. After the forum, the paper noted
that Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Noghaideli visited Yerevan and
met with his colleague Andranik Margarian , and informed him about
the Akhalkalaki Armenians’ demands.
Akhali Taoba reported that Margarian promised Georgia that the
official Yerevan does not stand behind this demand of Akhalkalaki
Armenians. The paper notes that Margarian added that the creation of
the Javakheti autonomy should never be included in the agenda.

OFF WITH DOLLARS, RUBLES AND EUROS
A1+
| 21:19:32 | 03-10-2005 | Economy |
The value of the Armenian Dram will continue to rise and it is not yet
clear how long the process will last. The Currency International Fund
is at present analyzing the economy of the South Caucasian countries
and giving advice to the authorities. The Armenian Central Bank does
not lead a policy of floating exchange rate, neither does it lead a
policy of fixed exchange rate.
This was mentioned by the CIF Central East and Central Asia
administration deputy head Julian Berengo. Today in the CIF Armenian
office the presentation of the booklet about the South Caucasian
countries and Kazakhstan took place. There is a flattering line in
it about our country.
“The exchange rate policy in Armenia is flexible, and in the other
three countries it is not”. This year it resulted in only 3% inflation
in Armenia, while in Azerbaijan it was 15%, in Georgia – 7.3% and in
Kazakhstan – 7.5%.
The value of the Armenian Dram rises as there is a flow of currency
from abroad into Armenia, which results in inflation of more than
10%. By the advice of the CIF the Central Bank raises the value of
ARMD in order to avoid inflation.

NO WREATH TO THE PARLIAMENT
A1+
| 21:18:41 | 03-10-2005 | Politics |
The coalition was saved; Hmayak Hovhannisyan will not bring the
promised wreath signifying the death of the coalition and the
Parliament to the NA as today the draft about the return of the
deposits was included into the agenda of the session.
“Our efforts of the last few years were finally crowned with success,
and issue will be discussed and solved legislatively, after which
a very serious procedure will start during which the Government
will establish the correlation of the deposit return. To our mind,
the return must be full and not partial”, said Hmayak Hovhannisyan
during the interview with the journalists.
He also reminded that the NA President Arthur Baghdasaryan had promised
to return 1USD for every 10 Soviet rubles. “We have the experience
of constructive cooperation with the NA President. As an independent
deputy I will continue to apply pressure on the Parliament as the
issue is entering the final phase”, Hmayak Hovhannisyan warned.
By the way, a very interesting situation has been created; Hmayak
Hovhannisyan thinks the issue has been included into the agenda under
the pressure he applied, Arthur Baghdasaryan thinks it is the victory
of OYP, and the opposition contribution the inclusion to themselves.

HEAD OF THE NOR NORK COMMUNITY HAS BEEN RE-ELECTED
Panorama
13:06 03/10/05
According to preliminary results of the elections in the Nor Nork
community (held on October 2) the acting head of the community and
the member of “Orinac erkir” party David Petrosyan has been re-elected.
As Central Electoral Commission informed, from total number of 97 000
citezens only 34 000 electors (that is about 35%)have participated in
the elections. 28 740 citezens have voted for Davit Petrosyan. The
other candidate Vardan Parsamyan has received 3 650 votes. An
interesting fact, 2 days before voting V. Parsamyan have announced
that he would not participate in the elections. According to law,
if candidate doesn’t want to participate, he must announce about it
10 days before voting. This means V.
Parsamyan’s name was left in the ballots.

TURKEY BEGINS EU MEMBERSHIP TALKS
DeHavilland, UK
Oct 4 2005
Turkey has begun membership talks with the EU after a diplomatic
crisis was averted.
Abdullah Gul, foreign minister for Turkey, arrived in Luxembourg for
the opening ceremony last night and was greeted by British foreign
secretary Jack Straw, who described the event as a “truly historic
day for Europe and the whole of the international community”.
Mr Gul agreed, saying that a “historic point has been reached” and
confirming that Turkey had been offered full membership.
“The text sets out very clearly the prospect of full membership.
There is no alternative option [mentioned],” he said.
Earlier in the day it seemed that Austria would scupper the talks by
demanding that Turkey should be offered only associative membership
of the EU.
But the demand was withdrawn, and some commentators are suggesting
that Austria was mollified by an agreement to begin membership talks
for Croatia.
Many in Austria and other European countries have concerns about
Turkey’s prospective membership of the EU, and point to the country’s
poor recent record on democratic principles such as freedom of speech.
Last week the Turkish judiciary banned a conference scheduled to
discuss the Armenian massacres of 1915, which the authorities refuse
to acknowledge was an act of genocide by the Ottoman Empire.
But the secular Muslim state will have to wait more than a decade
before finally gaining accession status and Mr Straw and others have
urged Turkey to make progress with its democratic reforms.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

MEDIATORS IN VIENNA MEETING OF MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRMEN TO VISIT AZERBAIJAN AND ARMENIA
Azerbaijan News Service
Oct 4 2005
Mediators in Vienna meeting of OSCE Minsk group co-chairmen are
expected to visit Azerbaijan and Armenia, informed Elmar Mammadyarov,
foreign affairs minister of Azerbaijan. Mr. Mammadyarov also noted
structure of next phase of talks on settlement of Armenia- Azerbaijan
Daqliq Qarabaq conflict has already been determined. Noting that
the talks will be held within the frames of Prague talks process,
Azerbaijani FA minister said agreements on three points still stay
in force. The topic of the talks include such questions as release
of occupied Azerbaijani lands, ensuring of safe return of refugees
to their homeland, arrival of peacekeeping forces in the region,
perspectives of economic relations. Mr. Mammadyarov considers there is
still chance for peaceful settlement of the conflict. And official Baku
is firm in its position that is the highest autonomy to Daqliq Qarabaq
within the frames of territorial integrity of Azerbaijan Republic.

COUNCIL OF EUROPE OFFICIAL ARRIVES IN YEREVAN
Armenpress
YEREVAN, OCTOBER 4, ARMENPRESS: Giovanni Stazi, the president of the
Congress of Local and Regional Authorities of the Council of Europe,
has arrived today in Armenia for a three day visit.
Upon his arrival he was scheduled to meet with Armenian territorial
minister Hovik Abrahamian, prime minister Andranik Margarian,
Yerevan mayor Yervand Zakharian and parliament chairman Arthur
Baghdasarian. Tomorrow he will be received by president Kocharian
and foreign minister Vartan Oskanian.

DEPUTY PARLIAMENT SPEAKER SAYS EUROPE MUST BE TOUGH WITH TURKEY
Armenpress
Oct 4, 2005
YEREVAN, OCTOBER 4, ARMENPRESS: The deputy speaker of Armenia’s
parliament Vahan Hovhannissian told a press conference on Monday that
if Europe seeks stability and peace in the South Caucasus, it must
be tough with Turkey, and request implementation of certain criteria
before granting it full membership to the European Union (EU). These
would include a resolution of the Cyprus and Kurdish issues, as well
as recognition of the Armenian genocide, he stressed.
What is most incredulous, Hovhannisian said, is Turkey’s occupation
of an EU member country, which it refuses to recognize. Hovhannisian
pointed to Turkey’s non-compliance on a myriad of issues and its tough
stance with Europe, saying that this sets a `dangerous example for
Azerbaijan,’ which is also showing signs of refusing to cooperate,
this time with the OSCE and Armenia.
He said that though European political forces understand Turkey’s
refusal to recognize the Armenian genocide is dangerous, he explained
that Armenia must nevertheless aggressively advance the issue. `We
must share our position with the Europeans; we cannot rely on Euro
officials.’

TURKISH VIEW ON THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN AZERBAIJAN
Axis News
Oct 4 2005
Can Karpat. AIA Turkish section
Ilham Aliyev (L) and Ahmed Cezer
Turkish expert Hatem Cabbarli, the Armenia Researches Department
Director in the Turkish Centre for International Relations and
Strategic Analysis (TURKSAM) analysed on the pages of Turkish Strateji
Dergisi magazine the situation and the main Azerbaijani political and
geopolitical problems. He is making a stress that most of them are
rooted in the excessive dependence on Russia throughout the first
years of the independence and praises the late Heydar Aliyev. AIA
brings a translation of this article.
After gaining their independence in 1991, the ex-Soviet Union countries
could not make much progress in the name of democracy (except for the
Baltic States), and consequently they are living through a painful
process. One of them is Azerbaijan. After it became independent,
the President at that time, Ayaz Mutallibov preferred to depend
on Russia’s economy and security policy instead of strengthening
the independence of his own country. That choice of Mutallibov
is explained today by political, military and social factors of
that time. However, these reasons do not change the fact that the
inappropriate policy of the first years had a negative effect on
the whole Azerbaijani history. Until 1994, Azerbaijan was a sort of
battlefield of superpowers, among which were Russia and the United
States that wanted to control its rich energy sources.
Mutallibov, who could not any longer stand the pressure coming from
the Azerbaijan People’s Front (APF) and his people, fled to Russia.
Although in 1992 elections the APF came to power, it could not fulfil
public’s expectations either; on the contrary, it sunk under the
geopolitical and geo-economic intrigues of the superpowers. In 1993,
the coup d’etat of the Colonel Suret Huseynov removed the Party from
power. Later, the President of the Nakhchevan Parliament at that time,
Heydar Aliyev came to Baku, and was elected first as the new President
of the Parliament and then the President of Azerbaijan. He managed,
more or less, to restore the order in the country. After he had
signed the oil agreement known as the agreement of the century in
September 1994, he strengthened his power even further. Before the
elections on the 6th of November this year, the political agenda of
Azerbaijan is turning around the discussions whether these elections
will be democratic. These elections are also a question of “to be
or not to be” for the opposition, which could not get to the power
for 13 years. Success or failure will determine the fate of the
Azerbaijani opposition.
Inflation of the Candidates
The Azerbaijani Parliament counts 125 MPs. According to the information
given by the Azerbaijan Central Elections Commission, the delay of
application for candidates expired on the 6th of September.
To participate in the elections, 2237 people (100%) took register
forms, 2149 people (96.13%) gave back those forms filled and 2059 of
them (92.13%) became official candidates. 1031 of those candidates
(46.09%) will participate in the elections independently. 968 of those
independent candidates (46.97%) have already been registered, the rest
was divided up between other political parties and organisations. Some
parties, like Azadliq (115 people), New Policy (101), Azerbaijani
Forces (33), Democratic Azerbaijan (35), Reform (30), Union (9) and
For Azerbaijan (8) will participate in the elections in the framework
of political blocs. More than 2000 candidates appliying for 125 seats
is a sign of democracy. Nevertheless, this fact also proved that some
people, who are not even involved in politics, are willing to have
a seat in the Parliament. Moreover many foreign countries, holdings
and commercial companies support their own candidates, and carry out
lobbying activities. Just to remind, in the parliamentary elections of
2000 only 390 candidates participated, so it is possible to claim that
there is a real inflation of candidates for the upcoming elections on
the November, 6th. And there are some candidates, who plan to withdraw
their candidature just before the elections date in favour of other
powerful candidates, and this also caused that the figure is so high.
The Duel: The Government vs. The Opposition
Although the opposition struggles for power for long 13 years, it
could not cope so far with the political system that was built by the
President Heydar Aliyev in Azerbaijan. When after Heydar’s his son
Ilham took over the opposition considered that it could easily beat
him, and even prepared some “orange”, “blue”, “red”, Ilham Aliyev. Like
father, like son… “green”, “yellow” revolution scenarios, it could
not estimate correctly the real power of Aliyev regime and political
power, and it despised his political potential, and that is why they
could not be represented in the State administration mechanisms. As a
matter of fact, the opposition is bereft of any political influence
in the country. The reason why is that conflicts and disagreements
in the opposition are more serious than those in the ranks of the
government. Those in the government, despite the serious disagreements,
always manage to find compromises or to postpone their disputes in
order to keep their seats. However, the opposition movements, have
nothing to lose, and they quarrel every now and then.
The opposition parties criticise the government for the policy it
pursues in economy, social affairs and especially in the Karabakh
issue. Nevertheless, they do not care about the negotiations in
progress to solve the Karabakh conflict. In other words, the opposition
parties are so busy with the coming elections that they even forget
to oppose to the government.
The Leaders in Exile
Some political forces, especially the Azerbaijan Democratic Party
struggle in order to bring back their leaders who are in exile. Today
the former President Ayaz Mutallibov lives in Russia, and the former
President of the Parliament Resul Kuliyev in the United States.
Although Mutallibov and Kuliyev have already put in motion the United
States, Russia and the European Union to convince the Azerbaijani
government to permit their return, the Attorney General officially
declared that if these persons try to enter to Azerbaijan, they
will be arrested. Those leaders, who claimed that they struggle
against Aliyev’s regime in order to give the Azerbaijani people their
democratic rights back, and who declared that for this aim they would
not hesitate to give their own lives, now live in exile fearing the
arrest. The opposition, taking the last elections as an example,
claims that the results of the upcoming elections in November will
be fraudulent as well. Emphasising that there were some troubles
during the candidates’ registering process, it declared that it
is not possible to trust the government’s intentions. As to the
government, it confirms that the elections will be democratic, and
tries to make its voice heard in the Azerbaijani public opinion as
well as in the European Council. If we take the declarations of the
government into account, we can expect that these elections will be
more democratic than the previous elections. For sure the government
can hardly face the democratisation pressures coming from the United
States, and the country really needs some reforms. If there are any
frauds in the coming elections, it would start a “Color revolution”
in Azerbaijan. If it happens, the government, which is unwilling to
make the least concession, would lose everything. Another point is
that the statements coming from the United States, the EU, Iran and
Russia about these elections are being accepted by the government
as well as by the opposition as prophecies. Of course, one of the
reasons for this “psychology” is the fact that Azerbaijan had been the
Russia’s colony for the last 300 years (except the period 1918-1920
when a Democratic Republic of Azerbaijan existed). Its 14-years-long
history of independence is not enough for the achievement of full
democratisation. The government and the opposition examine the
reactions of foreign countries and they try to gain their support
rather than to listen to their own people, who will vote for them. The
opposition interprets any statement about the elections coming from
abroad as a pressure imposed on the government. As to the government,
although it tries to behave with prudence, it does not hide its
annoyance with some of those statements. Today the government and the
opposition, which should have focused altogether on the economical,
political and military problems of Azerbaijan, are divided in two
opposite poles and waiting for advice that the United States, the
EU and Russia are supposed to give them. This situation offends the
national honour of the Azerbaijani people. Azerbaijan does not have
to act according to foreign countries’ advice or propositions. In
order to become a country where the democratic values and the human
rights are respected and where the income is equally distributed,
the administration must be the first to apply reforms and the people
must support them. It may be that for some reasons the government
would not start this process or extend it. Then the people themselves
may display their will and present their demands to the government.
Unfortunately, Azerbaijan is far from these national values today.
Some opposition leaders claim that the parliamentary elections would
be accompanied the same demonstrations, which happened after the
presidential elections on the October, 15, 2003 and that the government
would interfere in that case. However, in case that before or after
the elections the government is divided, the opposition, which would
possibly have the support of the people and the democratic countries,
would be highly dangerous as far as the ruling party concerned.
Propaganda Campaigns
First of all, it must be emphasised that during all the elections
before 2005, candidates could not gain anything from pre-election’s
campaign periods because of the lack of professional institutions.
The main reason is that the government determined the list of the
candidates for the Parliament. Consequently, candidates, who had their
seats for granted in any case, had no need for propaganda. As a matter
of fact, in the parliamentary elections in 2000, the list prepared by
the government had leaked out to the press, and 122 of 125 candidates
that appeared on the list had ended sitting in the Parliament. That
is why propaganda techniques and mechanisms are not developed in the
Azerbaijani political scene. The Party in power, the New Azerbaijan
Party declared the names of its candidates at the last minute, and
thus disappointed those, who did not appear on the list. Although
the government tries to present an image of a solid team, it suffers
from serious disagreements in its own ranks. The government will
not only fight against the opposition, but also to keep its own
union during these elections. Three major opposition parties, the
Equality, the Azerbaijan Public Front and the Azerbaijan Democratic
Party agreed to form a single bloc for these elections. However,
the fact that the candidates – independent or dependent on the
blocs – promise to solve economical and social problems grants these
parliamentary elections an atmosphere of municipal elections. As a
matter of fact, the main promises are about the solution of water,
sewer system, electricity, labour, and road problems. And the solution
of Azerbaijan’s economical, political and military problems through
a new legislation is not discussed as much. Besides, discussions on
the reduction of presidential powers and the increase of those of
the Parliament are absolutely out of question.
And Turkey’s Point of View
After Azerbaijan obtained its independence, Turkey had tried to
influence some political events in that country every now and then, but
in vain. The attitudes between Turkey and Azerbaijan depend rather on
personal relations: the famous brother-like relations between Heydar
Aliyev and the Turkish President at that time, Suleyman Demirel. The
Azerbaijani public opinion and foreign observers keep claiming that
so far none of the elections had really reflected the will of the
population. The fact that Turkey sending congratulation messages even
before the publishing results of the presidential elections in 2003
had been announced, changed the attitude of the Azerbaijani people
towards Turkey and lowered their trust towards Ankara. Long before the
November elections, foreign embassies and intelligence services began
to spend thousands of dollars lobbying in favour of those candidates,
who support their interest. However, Turkey is contended to watch the
evolution from a distance, and believes in common values that it failed
to develop for the last fifteen years. If the opposition wins these
elections, the political parties, which obtained neither financial nor
spiritual support from Turkey during those fifteen years, may cool
of relations with Turkey. While the United States, the EU, Russia
and even Iran are explaining their official point of view and making
statements that they hope for democratic elections in Azerbaijan,
the Turkish Embassy officials appear in the local newspapers and TV
channels only on the occasion of official ceremonies. This proves that
Turkey abstains from involvement in the elections process. Turkey
uses just a tiny part of its potential of political manoeuvres
in Azerbaijan. Today, for Turkey, “to be influential or not to be
influential” in Azerbaijan will also determine its future relations
with that country.