TURKISH VIEW ON THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN AZERBAIJAN
Axis News
Oct 4 2005
Can Karpat. AIA Turkish section
Ilham Aliyev (L) and Ahmed Cezer
Turkish expert Hatem Cabbarli, the Armenia Researches Department
Director in the Turkish Centre for International Relations and
Strategic Analysis (TURKSAM) analysed on the pages of Turkish Strateji
Dergisi magazine the situation and the main Azerbaijani political and
geopolitical problems. He is making a stress that most of them are
rooted in the excessive dependence on Russia throughout the first
years of the independence and praises the late Heydar Aliyev. AIA
brings a translation of this article.
After gaining their independence in 1991, the ex-Soviet Union countries
could not make much progress in the name of democracy (except for the
Baltic States), and consequently they are living through a painful
process. One of them is Azerbaijan. After it became independent,
the President at that time, Ayaz Mutallibov preferred to depend
on Russia’s economy and security policy instead of strengthening
the independence of his own country. That choice of Mutallibov
is explained today by political, military and social factors of
that time. However, these reasons do not change the fact that the
inappropriate policy of the first years had a negative effect on
the whole Azerbaijani history. Until 1994, Azerbaijan was a sort of
battlefield of superpowers, among which were Russia and the United
States that wanted to control its rich energy sources.
Mutallibov, who could not any longer stand the pressure coming from
the Azerbaijan People’s Front (APF) and his people, fled to Russia.
Although in 1992 elections the APF came to power, it could not fulfil
public’s expectations either; on the contrary, it sunk under the
geopolitical and geo-economic intrigues of the superpowers. In 1993,
the coup d’etat of the Colonel Suret Huseynov removed the Party from
power. Later, the President of the Nakhchevan Parliament at that time,
Heydar Aliyev came to Baku, and was elected first as the new President
of the Parliament and then the President of Azerbaijan. He managed,
more or less, to restore the order in the country. After he had
signed the oil agreement known as the agreement of the century in
September 1994, he strengthened his power even further. Before the
elections on the 6th of November this year, the political agenda of
Azerbaijan is turning around the discussions whether these elections
will be democratic. These elections are also a question of “to be
or not to be” for the opposition, which could not get to the power
for 13 years. Success or failure will determine the fate of the
Azerbaijani opposition.
Inflation of the Candidates
The Azerbaijani Parliament counts 125 MPs. According to the information
given by the Azerbaijan Central Elections Commission, the delay of
application for candidates expired on the 6th of September.
To participate in the elections, 2237 people (100%) took register
forms, 2149 people (96.13%) gave back those forms filled and 2059 of
them (92.13%) became official candidates. 1031 of those candidates
(46.09%) will participate in the elections independently. 968 of those
independent candidates (46.97%) have already been registered, the rest
was divided up between other political parties and organisations. Some
parties, like Azadliq (115 people), New Policy (101), Azerbaijani
Forces (33), Democratic Azerbaijan (35), Reform (30), Union (9) and
For Azerbaijan (8) will participate in the elections in the framework
of political blocs. More than 2000 candidates appliying for 125 seats
is a sign of democracy. Nevertheless, this fact also proved that some
people, who are not even involved in politics, are willing to have
a seat in the Parliament. Moreover many foreign countries, holdings
and commercial companies support their own candidates, and carry out
lobbying activities. Just to remind, in the parliamentary elections of
2000 only 390 candidates participated, so it is possible to claim that
there is a real inflation of candidates for the upcoming elections on
the November, 6th. And there are some candidates, who plan to withdraw
their candidature just before the elections date in favour of other
powerful candidates, and this also caused that the figure is so high.
The Duel: The Government vs. The Opposition
Although the opposition struggles for power for long 13 years, it
could not cope so far with the political system that was built by the
President Heydar Aliyev in Azerbaijan. When after Heydar’s his son
Ilham took over the opposition considered that it could easily beat
him, and even prepared some “orange”, “blue”, “red”, Ilham Aliyev. Like
father, like son… “green”, “yellow” revolution scenarios, it could
not estimate correctly the real power of Aliyev regime and political
power, and it despised his political potential, and that is why they
could not be represented in the State administration mechanisms. As a
matter of fact, the opposition is bereft of any political influence
in the country. The reason why is that conflicts and disagreements
in the opposition are more serious than those in the ranks of the
government. Those in the government, despite the serious disagreements,
always manage to find compromises or to postpone their disputes in
order to keep their seats. However, the opposition movements, have
nothing to lose, and they quarrel every now and then.
The opposition parties criticise the government for the policy it
pursues in economy, social affairs and especially in the Karabakh
issue. Nevertheless, they do not care about the negotiations in
progress to solve the Karabakh conflict. In other words, the opposition
parties are so busy with the coming elections that they even forget
to oppose to the government.
The Leaders in Exile
Some political forces, especially the Azerbaijan Democratic Party
struggle in order to bring back their leaders who are in exile. Today
the former President Ayaz Mutallibov lives in Russia, and the former
President of the Parliament Resul Kuliyev in the United States.
Although Mutallibov and Kuliyev have already put in motion the United
States, Russia and the European Union to convince the Azerbaijani
government to permit their return, the Attorney General officially
declared that if these persons try to enter to Azerbaijan, they
will be arrested. Those leaders, who claimed that they struggle
against Aliyev’s regime in order to give the Azerbaijani people their
democratic rights back, and who declared that for this aim they would
not hesitate to give their own lives, now live in exile fearing the
arrest. The opposition, taking the last elections as an example,
claims that the results of the upcoming elections in November will
be fraudulent as well. Emphasising that there were some troubles
during the candidates’ registering process, it declared that it
is not possible to trust the government’s intentions. As to the
government, it confirms that the elections will be democratic, and
tries to make its voice heard in the Azerbaijani public opinion as
well as in the European Council. If we take the declarations of the
government into account, we can expect that these elections will be
more democratic than the previous elections. For sure the government
can hardly face the democratisation pressures coming from the United
States, and the country really needs some reforms. If there are any
frauds in the coming elections, it would start a “Color revolution”
in Azerbaijan. If it happens, the government, which is unwilling to
make the least concession, would lose everything. Another point is
that the statements coming from the United States, the EU, Iran and
Russia about these elections are being accepted by the government
as well as by the opposition as prophecies. Of course, one of the
reasons for this “psychology” is the fact that Azerbaijan had been the
Russia’s colony for the last 300 years (except the period 1918-1920
when a Democratic Republic of Azerbaijan existed). Its 14-years-long
history of independence is not enough for the achievement of full
democratisation. The government and the opposition examine the
reactions of foreign countries and they try to gain their support
rather than to listen to their own people, who will vote for them. The
opposition interprets any statement about the elections coming from
abroad as a pressure imposed on the government. As to the government,
although it tries to behave with prudence, it does not hide its
annoyance with some of those statements. Today the government and the
opposition, which should have focused altogether on the economical,
political and military problems of Azerbaijan, are divided in two
opposite poles and waiting for advice that the United States, the
EU and Russia are supposed to give them. This situation offends the
national honour of the Azerbaijani people. Azerbaijan does not have
to act according to foreign countries’ advice or propositions. In
order to become a country where the democratic values and the human
rights are respected and where the income is equally distributed,
the administration must be the first to apply reforms and the people
must support them. It may be that for some reasons the government
would not start this process or extend it. Then the people themselves
may display their will and present their demands to the government.
Unfortunately, Azerbaijan is far from these national values today.
Some opposition leaders claim that the parliamentary elections would
be accompanied the same demonstrations, which happened after the
presidential elections on the October, 15, 2003 and that the government
would interfere in that case. However, in case that before or after
the elections the government is divided, the opposition, which would
possibly have the support of the people and the democratic countries,
would be highly dangerous as far as the ruling party concerned.
Propaganda Campaigns
First of all, it must be emphasised that during all the elections
before 2005, candidates could not gain anything from pre-election’s
campaign periods because of the lack of professional institutions.
The main reason is that the government determined the list of the
candidates for the Parliament. Consequently, candidates, who had their
seats for granted in any case, had no need for propaganda. As a matter
of fact, in the parliamentary elections in 2000, the list prepared by
the government had leaked out to the press, and 122 of 125 candidates
that appeared on the list had ended sitting in the Parliament. That
is why propaganda techniques and mechanisms are not developed in the
Azerbaijani political scene. The Party in power, the New Azerbaijan
Party declared the names of its candidates at the last minute, and
thus disappointed those, who did not appear on the list. Although
the government tries to present an image of a solid team, it suffers
from serious disagreements in its own ranks. The government will
not only fight against the opposition, but also to keep its own
union during these elections. Three major opposition parties, the
Equality, the Azerbaijan Public Front and the Azerbaijan Democratic
Party agreed to form a single bloc for these elections. However,
the fact that the candidates – independent or dependent on the
blocs – promise to solve economical and social problems grants these
parliamentary elections an atmosphere of municipal elections. As a
matter of fact, the main promises are about the solution of water,
sewer system, electricity, labour, and road problems. And the solution
of Azerbaijan’s economical, political and military problems through
a new legislation is not discussed as much. Besides, discussions on
the reduction of presidential powers and the increase of those of
the Parliament are absolutely out of question.
And Turkey’s Point of View
After Azerbaijan obtained its independence, Turkey had tried to
influence some political events in that country every now and then, but
in vain. The attitudes between Turkey and Azerbaijan depend rather on
personal relations: the famous brother-like relations between Heydar
Aliyev and the Turkish President at that time, Suleyman Demirel. The
Azerbaijani public opinion and foreign observers keep claiming that
so far none of the elections had really reflected the will of the
population. The fact that Turkey sending congratulation messages even
before the publishing results of the presidential elections in 2003
had been announced, changed the attitude of the Azerbaijani people
towards Turkey and lowered their trust towards Ankara. Long before the
November elections, foreign embassies and intelligence services began
to spend thousands of dollars lobbying in favour of those candidates,
who support their interest. However, Turkey is contended to watch the
evolution from a distance, and believes in common values that it failed
to develop for the last fifteen years. If the opposition wins these
elections, the political parties, which obtained neither financial nor
spiritual support from Turkey during those fifteen years, may cool
of relations with Turkey. While the United States, the EU, Russia
and even Iran are explaining their official point of view and making
statements that they hope for democratic elections in Azerbaijan,
the Turkish Embassy officials appear in the local newspapers and TV
channels only on the occasion of official ceremonies. This proves that
Turkey abstains from involvement in the elections process. Turkey
uses just a tiny part of its potential of political manoeuvres
in Azerbaijan. Today, for Turkey, “to be influential or not to be
influential” in Azerbaijan will also determine its future relations
with that country.