EUROPE IS GOING TO NEED TURKEY ; EU MEMBERSHIP
by Giles Merritt

The International Herald Tribune, France
October 10, 2005 Monday

Brussels

In most European countries there are issues too sensitive to be
left to the voters; capital punishment is one, Turkey’s membership
of the European Union is another. In both cases there is a discreet
consensus between the main political parties that their electorates
would, if consulted, make the wrong decision.

Capital punishment is a good example of how this benign despotism
by Europe’s political elites eventually pays off. Public opinion
across Europe has been steadily coming round to the view that
judicial execution is morally repugnant. Similarly, the case for
bringing Turkey in and extending the EU’s borders to Iraq, Syria,
Armenia and Azerbaijan will no doubt also slowly win the approval of
today’s skeptics.

Across Europe, opinion on Turkey ranges from lukewarm to downright
hostile. In EU newcomer countries like Poland and Hungary, narrow
majorities welcome Turkish membership. In Spain, Portugal and Britain,
although something like a third are against, more than 40 percent
are in favor. At the other end of the spectrum, only a tenth of
Austrians want Turkey in, with four-fifths adamantly opposed. In
Germany three-quarters are in the no camp.

It’s never easy to tell whether politicians who declare themselves
against Turkish membership are motivated by objective considerations or
by opportunism and demagoguery. In any case, they were wrong to oppose
the opening of negotiations that will most probably last for 15 years.

Back in the mid-1980s, I was skeptical about Turkey’s case for joining
the European club. The consensus view then was that Turkey’s NATO
membership should be complemented by an enhanced economic relationship
with Europe, but no more.

When the Berlin Wall fell, my views changed entirely. In the uncertain
post-Communist world, I became convinced that Western Europe’s security
and prosperity depended on bringing stability to the former Soviet
satellite countries by admitting them to the EU.

The new situation clearly made it essential to bring Turkey into the
European bloc.

A glance at a map says it all. Turkey lies at the center of some of
the world’s most volatile regions the Black Sea and the Caucasus
republics and the hot spots of Central Asia, not to speak of the
Middle East. Turkey is already a regional power that exerts a strong
stabilizing influence on neighboring countries, so it is in Europe’s
long-term interest that Turkey should become firmly anchored in the EU.

Twenty years ago, the case against Turkish membership was chiefly
cultural and religious. Jacques Delors, the Frenchman who headed the
European Commission in its glory days, spoke of the difficulties of
admitting Turkey to “our Christian club.” Such deeply held prejudices
still lie at the heart of public hostility, even if nowadays political
realists see the religious issue in very different terms.

One of the great attractions of Turkish membership is that it could
create a bridge between Europe and the Islamic world.

Turkey is generally portrayed as a poor country whose many peasant
farmers will place intolerable financial strains on the EU. Yet the
economic advantages of bringing Turkey in are far more persuasive. By
2020, Europe’s active work force will be less than half the population,
whereas Turkey’s will be two-thirds. Europe needs Turkey’s increasingly
well-educated workers, and could do with the growing economic and
industrial muscle of a country that will soon be as populous as
Germany.

People who complain that the EU wouldn’t be the same with Turkey as a
member are living in a bygone age. In 15 years’ time, the Union will
by then have shrunk to less than 5 percent of the global population.

Europe is going to need as much new blood as it can get. Hard as it
is for Europeans to construct new democratic structures, such as its
doomed constitution, the truth is that the EU needs to be bigger and
more heterogeneous if it is to defend its citizens’ interests.

If Turkey’s European aspirations had to be abandoned, the outlook
would be worryingly uncertain. On the one hand, Islamic extremism
might feed on Western rejection. On the other, Turkey’s powerful
generals, always more popular than its politicians, who command a
million-strong army, might reverse the present trend and begin to
call the tune. Turkey as a loose cannon in one of the world’s most
geopolitically sensitive regions doesn’t bear thinking about.

*

Giles Merritt is secretary-general of Friends of Europe and editor
of the new policy journal Europe’s World.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

EUP HR DELEGATION FOCUSES ON RECOGNITION OF GENOCIDE

RISK MONITOR BRIEFING
October 10, 2005

According to Cumhuriyet, Members of the European Parliament Human
Rights Subcommittee led by Helene Flautre paid a visit to the Turkish
Parliament. During the meeting, delegation members called on Ankara
to recognize the Armenian genocide claims and consider the issue of
education in Kurdish. Polish members of the delegation noted that
Poland had to acknowledge its part in the Jewish holocaust and asked
when Turkey would face up to its own history.

US EMBASSY COMMENTS ON REPORTS OF TALKS WITH ARMENIAN OPPOSITION

Hayots Ashkhar, Armenia
Oct 6 2005

Headlined “The US embassy has replied to questions from Ayots Ashkhar”

Ayots Ashkhar daily has asked the US embassy in Armenia to clarify
the report of a meeting between Armenian opposition leaders and
the head of the council on Eastern Europe and Russia of the Central
Intelligence Agency, Martin Schwartz, [mentioned in previous reports
as head of the Eastern Europe and Russia department of the US National
Intelligence Council] at the US embassy in Armenia.

Yesterday we received a reply from the US embassy which says: “Dr
Martin Schwartz, who visited Armenia on 11-15 September, works as an
analyst in the CIA council which is a well-known organization based
in Washington. Senior analysts, as well as academicians are working
here to provide the US government with information about developments
abroad. Dr Schwartz’s visit was a factfinding one.

“As Ambassador Evans has repeatedly said publicly, the United States
supports the establishment of democratic institutions in Armenia
and the conduct of free and fair elections in the period allocated
for them. The Americans are confident that in a democratic state,
citizens should elect their leaders near ballot boxes by means of a
free and fair election, not in the streets. To support this approach,
the US government has already declared that it will initiate a number
of new developments that will help Armenia to conduct free and fair
parliamentary and presidential elections in 2007 and 2008.”

ACCUSED MURDERER ELECTED TOWN MAYOR IN ARMENIA

Deutsche Presse-Agentur
October 10, 2005, Monday 14:33:28 Central European Time

Yerevan

Armenian Armen Keshishyan will serve as mayor of the town of Nor-Atchin
from a jail cell after winning a local election during his trial for
murder, officials in the country’s capital Yerevan said Monday.

Keshishyan, who won an easy victory in the poll Sunday, was entitled to
run for office as no verdict had yet been pronounced for the killing
during an argument two weeks ago.

In a bizarre twist, the weapon Keshishyan allegedly used had been
presented to him by former Armenian prime minister Andranik Markaryan.

During his term of office, the ex-government head gave almost 590
firearms as gifts and awards. Some of the guns were later believed to
have been used in three killings and several attempted murders.

WRITER ‘UNLIKELY TO BE IMPRISONED’

The Independent (London)
October 10, 2005, Monday

Orhan Pamuk: Supporting Armenian genocide claim

ISTANBUL Turkey’s Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul said he was confident
a court would dismiss charges against the best-selling Turkish writer,
Orhan Pamuk, who faces prison for supporting Armenian claims they
suffered a genocide under Ottoman Turks in 1915. Mr Gul said the
case would be probably be dismissed as a court had already thrown
out similar charges against another person.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

LEADING ARTICLE: THE FRIENDSHIP BRIDGE MUST NOT BE LOST: KASHMIR EARTHQUAKE

The Independent (London)
October 10, 2005, Monday

The scale of the devastation caused by the earthquake that struck the
Indian subcontinent defies imagination. More than 30,000 are believed
dead and more than double that injured across three countries.

Yesterday, with the death toll still rising, it was clear that the
region worst afflicted by far was Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

Officials described it as the worst-ever disaster to have struck
Pakistan.

None of the countries affected is a stranger to natural disaster.

But, as with the South-east Asian tsunami last Christmas and more
recently with hurricane Katrina, the speed of modern travel and
communications now means that the images of human suffering are
brought into our homes early enough for us to feel that something
can still be done.

And much has been done. International rescue teams arrived in stricken
parts of Pakistan within 24 hours of the disaster. People have been
saved who would otherwise have died. Food, medicine and shelter
have been rushed to the region from dozens of countries, including
Britain. Inevitably there was criticism of lack of co-ordination,
duplicated effort and bureaucratic delays. But this was also a disaster
across vast and difficult terrain.

It would be invidious to draw any direct comparison between the
response to this massive disaster and the aftermath of Katrina in
New Orleans. The two are quite different. But President Musharraf
broadcast an urgent appeal for international assistance as soon as
the extent of the disaster was apparent. Formalities for incoming
aid and rescue teams appear to have been kept to the minimum.

Mutual offers of help between India and Pakistan were an especially
positive development. Natural disasters have provided unheralded
opportunities for human and diplomatic rapprochement in the past. The
Armenian earthquake of 1988 prompted the then Soviet Union to issue an
unprecedented call for international aid and throw open the country
to aid workers and reporters. Greece and Turkey sent rescue teams
and assistance to each other’s country after earthquakes in 1999,
defusing tension in other areas of bilateral relations.

The past two years have witnessed a gradual warming of relations
between India and Pakistan, with attempts to defuse the bitter and
long-running dispute over Kashmir. One of the casualties of Saturday’s
earthquake was the so-called friendship bridge that had recently
facilitated bus and foot traffic across the Line of Control.

The co-operation set in train by the earthquake raises the hope that it
will be the repair of the bridge, rather than its collapse, that will
set the tone for relations between these two neighbours in the future.

ARMENIAN JOURNALIST GETS SUSPENDED SENTENCE, FACES FURTHER DEFAMATION CASE

NTV Online website, Turkey
Oct 7 2005

Hrant Dink, the chief editor of the Armenian daily Agos, has been
sentenced to six months in prison. The sentence has been suspended
due to Dink’s good behaviour during the trial.

Dink was on trial for defaming Turks in an article he wrote. At
the trial which was held at the Sisli Second Criminal Court, Kemal
Kerincsiz, a member of the Jurists Union who is known for having
asked for the injunction on the Armenian conference and who attended
Dink’s trial as a complaining party, called for the punishment of
the suspect. The defence lawyers said there was no crime involved
and asked for Dink’s acquittal.

The judge ruled that in his column in Agos on 13 February 2004, Dink
insulted and vilified Turks. The judge sentenced him to six months
in prison. The judge then suspended the sentence on the grounds of
Dink’s good behaviour during the trial and because the judge believed
Dink would not commit another crime.

Dink faces another trial for a speech he delivered at the Global
Security, Terrorism and Human Rights panel meeting held in February
2002. He will stand trial for defamation. The trial is to be held at
the Urfa Third Criminal court on 9 February 2006.

Author Orhan Pamuk, too, will stand trial for defamation at the Sisli
Ninth Criminal Court on 16 December 2005.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

AZERI TV ACCUSES TBILISI OF PRO-ARMENIAN BIAS

Lider TV, Azerbaijan
Sept 25 2005

The Azeri TV station Lider has accused the Georgian authorities of
pro-Armenian bias. It said that whereas Tbilisi has been spending money
on improving the infrastructure in the Armenian-populated Javakhetia
region, local Azeris have been denied the right to buy land or study
in their own language. The following is an excerpt from report by
Azerbaijani TV station Lider on 25 September; subheadings have been
inserted editorially:

[Presenter] Our sources in Tbilisi told us an interesting story last
week. They said that two thirds of the 275m-dollar-fund from the
US Millennium Challenge Account [MCA] for Georgia will be spent on
infrastructure and new roads in Javakhetia where ethnic Armenians live.

[Passage omitted: Ethnic Armenians want autonomy from Tbilisi; police
in Akhalkalaki protested against appointment of a new police chief]

Over 3,000 ethnic Azeri officials replaced

However, the Azerbaijani-populated areas have neither a police
chief nor a high-ranking police officer whereas low-ranking officers
have been dismissed from their posts one by one. A total of 3,400
Azerbaijanis in various posts have been replaced by Georgians since
[Georgian President Mikheil] Saakashvili has come to power. The
policy of discrimination against Georgia’s ethnic Azerbaijanis does
not end there.

[Correspondent over video of Azeris in Georgia] Reports on ethnic
Azerbaijanis in Georgia seemed to be an everyday occurrence which
cannot surprise anyone. Surprising though is another thing. Why does
the Georgian government creates artificial problems which can aggravate
the situation? Why is Tbilisi not treating other ethnic minorities,
for example, Armenians similarly?

[Passage omitted: says that Azerbaijanis in Georgia are the only
ethnos who have repeatedly proved their loyalty to Georgia and quotes
Saakashvili’s interview with Lider TV two years ago]

Nevertheless, it is not hard to prove that everything has gone from
bad to worse over the last two years. Let us take the problem of
land. Although the land reform is now under way, this process cannot
be classified as a reform but the seizure of the Azeri-populated
lands. The lands in the Azerbaijani villages are being transferred
to the Georgian-owned companies but taking no heed of the opinions
of locals, people told a Lider TV correspondent in Georgia. Whenever
people protest against this process, kangaroo courts confirm the
decisions by the executive authorities. There is not a single body
for the helpless Azerbaijanis to lodge their complaints with.

[First unidentified man] Under the new law, the Azerbaijanis here have
been deprived of the right to land. I will be prepared to repeat this
to Saakashvili. The Azerbaijanis are being deprived of their lands. Our
village owns 600-700 ha of lands, of which 70-75 ha are possessed by
a dozen of villagers. The rest is owned by top businessmen.

As for another problem, i.e. the problem of language, it has two
aims. One of them is designed for the future and the other one for
the past. The Azerbaijanis were first uprooted when their historic
villages were renamed.

These villages were groundlessly renamed under [former President
Eduard] Shevardnadze and when we told the Azerbaijani presidential
executive staff and the media about that at the time, they asked us
why we had renamed Ganca. Thirty two villages fell victim to that.

Ban on native language has far-reaching aims

[Correspondent] Second, by restricting the use of the mother tongue,
they are trying to rob our compatriots of their future. Under the
newly-adopted law on education, schools for ethnic minorities will
start teaching in Georgian in the next three years. So, in a short
while, everything will be taught in Georgian. An ethnic language will
be taught as a foreign language.

[Second unidentified man] From 2007, when the law comes into force,
history, geography, mathematics, physics, nature and a series of
social subjects will be taught in Georgian at the non-Georgian
speaking schools. We simply cannot understand this. This just shows
that they are closing down the Azerbaijani-language schools. How can
a pupil study in two languages? What is it for? The aim is to make
the non-Georgians illiterate here.

ARMENIAN, AUSTRALIAN FMs DISCUSS DEVELOPMENT OF BILATERAL RELATIONS

ARKA News Agency, Armenia
Oct 10 2005

YEREVAN, October 10. /ARKA/. RA Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan and
Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Alexander Downer
discussed prospects of developing bilateral relations, stressing an
important role of the Armenian community in Australia in intensifying
bilateral economic relations. Minister Oskanyan informed his Australian
counterpart of the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement and of Armenia’s
relations with its neighbors. The Ministers expressed satisfaction
with bilateral cooperation within international organizations. Minister
Oskanyan invited Minister Downer to visit Armenia.

The RA Foreign Minister also held meetings with other Australian
Government officials, representatives of the Armenian-Australian
Chamber of Commerce. He also visited the Armenian community center
and made a speech.

An Armenian delegation led by RA Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan
paid an official visit to Australia on October 9, 2005.

IGOR LEVITIN TO ARRIVE IN ARMENIA

ARKA News Agency, Armenia
Oct 10 2005

YEREVAN, October 10. /ARKA/. RF Minister of Transport, Co-Chairman
of the Armenian-Russian Intergovernmental Commission for Economic
Cooperation Igor Levitin is to arrive for a 2-day official visit
to Armenia on October 12, 2005. Colonel Seyran Shasuvaryan, Press
Secretary to the RA Minister of Defense, reported that the RF Minister
of Transport is to participate in the 7th meeting of the Commission,
after which a protocol will be signed. The levitin-led delegation is
also to hold meetings with Armenia’s officials.