OBSCURE RUSSIAN-ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT-LEVEL THINGS
Lragir/am
23 March 06
All that is happening with regard to the price of gas supplied to
Armenia can be surely characterized as Russian-Armenian
government-level manipulation. This will not seem so incredible after
a scrutiny of events connected with gas. However, let us not start
from the beginning, but let us track back to the beginning from the
end, for it became clear on March 22, when Serge Sargsyan, Defense
Minister of Armenia, Secretary of the Security Council, Co-chair of
the Russian-Armenian Intergovernmental Committee, announced at Yerevan
State University that he had sent a letter to the president of Gasprom
Miller, offering proposals on lowering the price of gas, and received
Mr. Millers willing answer. Miller’s answer allowed Serge Sargsyan to
announce that the price of gas for the population and industry would
not go so high as to ruin their budgets.
First it is necessary to find out for who the price of gas will go up,
if `the price of gas for the population and industry will not so that
high.’ At least in Armenia the price of gas is set for the population
and industry. There seems to be no other category of
consumers. However, the thermal power plant of Hrazdan is probably
concerned, which is owned by Russia, and Gasprom probably will not
sell gas to its plant at a lower price. The problem is that the
thermal power plant of Hrazdan will not suffer, because the plant
generates energy and Armenia buys this energy, but in the nearest
future it will hardly afford to buy. And the thermal power plant will
sell electricity at a higher price. And this will not have an
essential impact on the population, because if the thermal plant
increases the tariff on electricity, for the consumer it will go up by
two or three drams only, and the focus of this story is the consumer,
more exactly, the voter.
As for the voter, he is obviously confused. The minister of defense
states that the agreement will be signed at the end of this month. Let
us not forget that he announces that the agreement will not damage the
budgets of the population and industries. On the same day the prime
minister states that it is impossible to give definite facts on the
price of gas. Whereas, twelve days ago the Public Utilities Commission
discussed the bid of Armrusgasard, and assuming that since April 1 the
price of gas will become 110 dollars per cubic meter at the border,
the commission set the price of gas 200 dollars per 1000 cubic meters
for the population and 146.5 dollars for the industry. The decision of
the commission will be put in effect, and cannot be changed for six
months. Moreover, on March 22, when the defense minister had already
announced about his nation-saving correspondence on TV, Robert
Nazaryan announced that the price set by the commission would be
unchanged for a year.
It is at least strange when the government official states that the
price of gas would not be as high as it was expected to be, while the
commission sets a price, which is as high as it was expected.
If the government of Armenia writes letters to Russia and waits for a
reply, why did it fail to urge the commission of Robert Nazaryan to
wait? It is hard to believe that Robert Nazaryan would not defer to
the government, especially that the law empowers Nazaryan to
wait. The bid of Armrusgasard was submitted to the commission on
February 28. The commission can discuss the bid and make a decision
within 90 days. Instead of 90 it took 10 days. Certainly, the
commission need not have waited for 90 days but it had to wait until
April 1, while the talks between the governments of Russia were going
on. Robert Nazaryan announced that if the decision were postponed,
Armrusgasard would suffer losses for about a month, because it would
take time to put the decision in effect. It is worth reminding Robert
Nazaryan that he is not Armrusgasard’s uncle to think about the
company more than the citizens of Armenia, and by making an early
decision he enabled Armrusgasard to get extra profit for at least 6
months.
The defense minister gives an interesting answer with regard to
this. When we asked the minister of defense if the Public Utilities
Commission’s decision was not a hasty decision made when the price of
gas was not definite yet, Serge Sargsyan said the commission had acted
in accordance with the law. I wonder in which law it is set down that
the commission was to make a decision on March 10 and by no means on
April 1 or 2. No doubt, the decision is lawful, but it would be as
lawful if it were adopted in April. Serge Sargsyan’s statement showed
that the decision was untimely, no matter how lawful it was.
Let us imagine for a moment, however, what would happen if the
commission had not made a decision yet. The announcement of the
defense minister that he offered proposals to Miller and Miller
accepted them would not be that appreciable and commendable. No one
could solve the problem of gas unless Serge Sargsyan interfered. And
the decision of the Public Utilities Commission rendered this
interference more appreciable and notable. It also implies that one
should not give up to hardships but turn to the minister of defense,
who will immediately solve the problem. A number of things become
clear at once, as soon as they are viewed from this aspect, namely why
the commission acted independently from the government, and why Russia
would not change its mind, and why the Americans especially began to
worry about the energy security of Armenia in the past few weeks.
One thing remains obscure; what proposals Serge Sargsyan offered to
Miller from Gasprom that were accepted. In return for what did Gasprom
agree to lower the price of gas? As long as it remains obscure, it is
early to be encouraged by the statements of the minister, and think
that this time too we managed to escape, because we do not know yet
how we escaped. Of course, if we ever learn or if we manage to escape
at all.