ARMENIA HOPES TURKEY’S ACCESSION WILL INFLUENCE RELATIONS
Radio Liberty, Czech Rep.
Nov 23 2006
NICOSIA, Nov 23 (Reuters) – Armenia said on Thursday it hoped Turkish
moves towards EU accession would bring more open debate in Turkey
over accusations Ottoman Turks committed genocide against Armenians
early in the 20th century.
Armenian President Robert Kocharian, talking to reporters during a
visit to Cyprus, said that Turkey’s expressed wish to join the European
Union should lead to normalisation of ties with all neighbours.
“Consequently the issue of Turkey’s accession course interests us
and we’re waiting to see it become what it should become. This will
certainly influence Armenian-Turkish relations,” he said.
Armenians say Ottoman Turks conducted systematic genocide against
Armenians around 1915. Turkey, however, insists thousands of Muslim
Turks as well as Christian Armenians were killed at that time as
part of a general partisan conflict that raged as the Ottoman Empire
collapsed.
Debate of the issue in Turkey is restricted by laws that can
effectively make it an offence to discuss publicly let alone express
support for any notion of a genocide.
“We believe the process of Turkey’s accession to the EU will lead to a
more open and honest debate in Turkish society where people can express
their opinions,” Kocharian said. “I know this a difficult process.”
Turkey is holding formal negotiations for EU membership but progress
is hampered by differences over the Mediterranean island of Cyprus
and over economic and political reforms.

FIRST MEETING OF ‘CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE’ MOVEMENT HELD
By Astghik Bedevian
Radio Liberty, Czech Rep.
Nov 23 2006
The first meeting of the so-called ‘Civil Disobedience’ movement
was held in Yerevan on Thursday, with its participants calling for
“removing the current regime and holding free and democratic early
elections.”
Former residents of Yerevan’s North Avenue and Buzand street and
Karabakh war veterans responded to the call of Armenia’s former
foreign minister Alexander Arzumanian to join the movement.
Representatives of the National-Democratic Union (AZhM) and the
“Homeland and Honor” party also attended the meeting.
Chairman of the “Brotherhood of Liberation Struggle” public
organization Arkady Karapetian called for action. “Our guys have no
problem… We call for a force capable of leading the nation to come
and take the leadership role. If there is no, we’ll put our forces
together to do something,” he said.
“We are nothing without you, but you should know that all of our guys
are standing next to you,” said Vladimir Arakelian, a field commander
of the Metsn Tigran volunteer group.
Academician Rafael Ghazarian was among those who came to the meeting.
“We are being led to destruction,” Ghazarian said in his speech. “The
people see what the leaders are doing. The people see that they
have no right. They can be evicted from their homes and get justice
nowhere. They will see violence, beatings, plunder. People begin to
get spoiled as well… There is no justice.”
According to Ghazarian, people are also disappointed with the
opposition, as “they [oppositionists] have failed to overcome the
personal.”
“Only forward, only together! We urge you,” Ghazarian said.
Ex-foreign minister Alexander Arzumanian, who is one of the initiators
of the movement, called upon those present, “all those who cannot
tolerate this arbitrariness” to join the movement, which will stage its
next rally near the Constitutional Court building on November 27, on
the occasion of the first anniversary of the Constitutional Referendum.

EX-PREMIER, EX-FOREIGN MINISTER DO NOT RULE OUT ELECTORAL BLOC
By Ruzanna Khachatrian
Radio Liberty, Czech Rep.
Nov 23 2006
Two prominent oppositionists who served as Armenia’s premier and
foreign minister in the early 1990s do not rule out that they may
team up ahead of the next parliamentary elections.
In an RFE/RL interview on Thursday leader of the opposition
National-Democratic Union (AZhM) Vazgen Manukian denied that his
cooperation with Zharangutyun (Heritage) party leader Raffi Hovannisian
is a ‘pro-western bloc established at dictates from abroad’.
Manukian, however, did not rule out that the initiative of the civil
forum will ultimately mount to an electoral alliance with Armenia’s
ex-foreign minister.
“Only a power change does not solve the problem. It is a necessary
but not sufficient condition for the public to become masters of
this country,” Manukian, who served as the country’s prime minister
in 1990-1991, told RFE/RL on Thursday.
The civil forum will meet on Saturday, with its initiators saying that
“the doors will be open for anyone to attend.”
However, neither Manukian, nor Hovannisian gave concrete names of
people or forces that will attend the forum.
“I think that almost all of our compatriots want our country to be
free, fair, and citizens want to feel not alienated from political
processes, they want to rediscover their belonging to the Republic
of Armenia,” Hovannisian told RFE/RL.
Manukian said that he and Hovannisian share common views on some
fundamental issues, such as democracy, freedom, national issues,
including the Karabakh problem.
“We want to establish a structure that would have its own life
irrespective of whether Vazgen Manukian and Raffi Hovannisian are in
this structure or not,” he said.
Manukian denied that this would be a pro-western alliance.
“Knowing me for so long, can you describe be as pro-western
politician?” the AZhM leader said, adding that he can speak both
against the West and Russia whenever the interests of Armenia require
that. “I don’t need to prove it once more that I am what I am,”
Manukian stressed.
“If we participate in elections and seek to establish a bloc I
think naturally that we will see it based on cooperation with Raffi
Hovannisian plus other political figures. But now this question is
not under discussion,” Manukian said.

ARMENIA RUMINATES OVER MEMBERSHIP
By Ara Tadevosian in Yerevan
Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK
Nov 23 2006
Yerevan seeks to build better relations with Brussels, while not
offending Moscow.
Political leaders in Abkhazia view the prospect of Georgia entering
NATO with deep anxiety, with government officials saying such a move
would be a grave threat to their own hopes of achieving independence,
and warning that it could spur them to move even closer to Russia.
“Above all, we see ourselves as a country allied with Russia,” said
Sergei Shamba, foreign minister of the unrecognised republic. “It’s
well known that NATO expansion in our region runs counter to Russia’s
interests.
“If Georgia joins the North Atlantic Alliance, recognition of Abkhaz
independence will become more difficult since the kind of support
Georgia will get from NATO members will be of a different order;
it will carry more weight.”
Abkhaz officials say that in such an eventuality they would be
forced to take counter-measures, which many believe would mean closer
integration with the Russia state.
“We need to agree a legal format for the relationship between
Abkhazia and Russia before this decision [Georgian membership of
NATO] is taken,” said Astamur Tania, one of the leaders of the Abkhaz
opposition. “The [Abkhaz] parliament recently passed a resolution
on the matter, describing it as an ‘associate relationship’ between
Abkhazia and Russia.”
Tania was formerly a political advisor to Abkhazia’s first president
Vladislav Ardzinba, under whose leadership the concept of an
“association” with Moscow first took shape.
Tania was critical of Tbilisi’s “intensified dialogue” with NATO,
saying, “This has made Georgia think that its foreign policy enjoys the
full backing of NATO members. There is another factor to be considered:
with NATO support, Georgia will upgrade its armed forces, and there’s
no guarantee that these units won’t be used against Abkhazia or
South Ossetia.”
Citing the case of Kosovo, which many believe will be granted
independence next year without the consent of its former parent state,
Serbia, Tania expressed fears that Georgia would try to preempt that
decision by ensuring that its claims to Abkhazia and South Ossetia
were resolved in its favour beforehand. He warned that in the case
of Abkhazia, “there’s a great danger that the resolution [sought by
Georgia] will be a military one”.
“Georgia is in a hurry to speed up its admission to NATO,” said Natella
Akaba, a former member of Abkhazia’s parliament. “Tbilisi is clearly
worried that the mechanism that will lead to recognition for Kosovo
has been activated. The Georgian authorities are well aware that once
Kosovo is recognised, attitudes towards other unrecognised states
will change drastically, and Abkhazia’s chances [of full independence]
will dramatically increase.”
The authorities in Sukhum maintain that for them, international
recognition is not contingent on the outcome in Kosovo, since they
argue that Abkhazia has a stronger legal and historical claim to
sovereignty. But they are keeping a close eye on developments in the
Balkans, and the possible response from Tbilisi.
Stanislav Lakoba, secretary of Abkhazia’s Security Council, says he
does not expect Georgia to begin the procedure of joining NATO until
2008 at the earliest.
Tamaz Ketsba, director of the non-government group Civil Society-Man of
the Future, argued that Georgia was facing a “problem of time” with the
prospect of recognition for Kosovo set against its own NATO ambitions.
This, he warned, might force the Georgian to seize the initiative
through military action. “Georgia might be given an easy ride and
admitted to the alliance despite its unresolved conflicts, but once
that happens, NATO members… are unlikely to give their assent to a
military operation in Abkhazia or South Ossetia,” said Ketsba. “Given
Russia’s political interests in the region, there will be no green
light for any military operation.”
To ward off a possible Georgian offensive, the Abkhaz army has been
conducting military exercises almost every month, involving both
regular units and reservists, most of them veterans of the 1992-93 war.
“It’s all a matter of motivation,” said Deputy Defence Minister Merab
Kishmaria. “Unlike the Georgians, we have nowhere to retreat to – the
Abkhaz have no other homeland than this. I assure you that despite
our limited resources, we won’t give in to the Georgians. All the
more so since we have experienced a victorious war with Georgia –
that gives us heart, and could demoralise the enemy.”
Akaba was the only Abkhaz commentator interviewed by IWPR who took
the view that Sukhum could live with Georgia’s accession to NATO.
“If NATO takes a decision based on principle to admit Georgia without
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, it could have a stabilising effect in
the region,” she said. “But NATO is unlikely to make such a move.”
Inal Khashig is editor of Chegemskaya Pravda newspaper in Abkhazia
and co-editor of Panorama, IWPR’s Caucasian newspaper.

AZERBAIJAN TIPTOES TOWARDS NATO
By Jasur Mamedov in Baku
Institute for War and Peace Reporting, UK
Nov 23 2006
Baku’s cautious policy seemingly designed to avoid spoiling relations
with Iran and Russia.
Although Azerbaijan is moving closer towards NATO, it remains shy
of talking about full membership of the alliance, apparently out of
concern about the geopolitical implications of such a commitment.
On November 8, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliev visited NATO
headquarters in Brussels before flying to Moscow for talks with
President Vladimir Putin. The two stops on his trip illustrated the
delicate foreign policy Baku is pursuing with both NATO and Russia.
“Today probably marks the start of a new stage in this relationship,”
said Aliev in Brussels. “We think it’s very important for our country,
which is young but already has growing potential, to be a true and
reliable partner for NATO.”
Azerbaijan’s chief foreign ministry spokesman Tahir Tagizade told
IWPR that his government believed in gradual cooperation, “We don’t
claim that we’ll become a NATO member-state tomorrow, or in a year.
But we believe that the current framework of our partnership gives
enough scope for us to make moves in this direction. Azerbaijan is now
well aware that integration with Europe and Euro-Atlantic structures
will bring stability to the region.”
Some analysts see Azerbaijan’s deliberately cautious policy as designed
to avoid spoiling relations with its big neighbours Iran and Russia.
“Over the last 10 to 15 years, integration with the West has been
a strategic priority for Azerbaijan,” said political analyst Leila
Alieva. “But the authorities are now saying that good relationships
should be built with Russia and Iran in order for the country to have
a normal existence.
“There’s a contradiction here: Azerbaijan can move closer to the West
only through democracy, through political and economic reforms. But
what draws us closer to Russia and Iran is being an authoritarian
regime.”
Another analyst, Elkhan Mehtiev, said Azerbaijan wanted to escape
the kind of Russian hostility Georgia has evinced by making its NATO
ambitions so plain.
“It’s no secret that all Georgia’s troubles started after it announced
its intention to join NATO and took radical steps in that direction,”
said Mehtiev. “No one wants to have a conflict with Russia over
this. Azerbaijan’s leaders understand that if they act like Georgia,
the troubles that await them will be even worse. NATO places a high
value on cooperation with Azerbaijan, but it isn’t going to be a
question of full membership.”
Some opposition figures argue that Azerbaijan is being too cautious
and should instead move full-speed towards NATO membership.
Sulhaddin Akber, president of the Azerbaijani-Atlantic Cooperation
Association and a leading member of the opposition Musavat party,
said, “It’s true that there are some internal and external problems
hampering Azerbaijani integration with NATO. But if Azerbaijan acted
in concert with Georgia, Tbilisi would not be left to cope with the
pressure from Moscow alone.”
Azerbaijan joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace programme in 1994
and is now implementing an Individual Partnership Action Plan, IPAP,
with the alliance.
Baku has been reforming its armed forces since 1997 to bring them into
line with NATO requirements. The country’s military education system
has undergone the most noticeable changes: with Turkish military
assistance, young officers are now being trained in accordance with
NATO standards.
Under its IPAP, Azerbaijan has been putting up new radar stations
with United States assistance in the southern region of Astara and
the coastal region of Khyzy.
“The primary aim of this is to allow Azerbaijan to control and guard
its borders,” said Jonathan Henick, public affairs officer of the
US embassy in Baku. “We believe that there is a threat from the
trafficking of weapons, drugs and people via the Caspian Sea. We
think that it’s in the interests of both the USA and Azerbaijan to
have these negative phenomena under control.”
Some Azerbaijani experts say the radar stations are primarily
intended to watch out for illegal traffic between Russia and Iran,
but Henick denied this, saying, “It’s not the USA’s aim to keep an
especially close watch on some particular route. Its aim is to develop
Azerbaijan’s controlling capacities.”
Despite the partnership plan, a number of experts say they see little
evidence that the Azerbaijani military is willing to undergo reform.
Alekber Mamedov, director of the Centre for Civil Control over Armed
Forces, said that the only areas where Azerbaijan was able to cooperate
with NATO effectively involved protecting the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
oil pipeline and counter-terrorism activities.
“I would like NATO to put pressure on the Baku authorities to undertake
military reforms in Azerbaijan. If it does not do so, any cooperation
with such corrupt officials will harm the reputation of a world-class
organisation like NATO,” he said.
Yildirim Mamedov, formerly a brigade commander and now a colonel in
the reserve, said that military reform in Azerbaijan was a mirage.
“Currently we can see no changes either in the minds of our military
leaders or in the technical and physical condition of the army,”
he said. “It’s pure pretence.”
Mamedov said there were big obstacles standing in the way of Azerbaijan
meeting NATO standards, but the alliance had at least helped the army
conduct professional exercises.
Uzeir Jafarov, a lieutenant-colonel in the reserve, said, “Over
the next five to 10 years, Azerbaijan won’t be able to fulfill its
commitments to NATO. Personally I don’t believe that under the command
of the corrupt generals in the defence ministry, any effort will be
made to aspire to NATO standards.”
Unlike in Georgia, NATO is not a subject of passionate debate in
Azerbaijan.
Taxi driver Ehtiram Tagiev, 40, only remembers that NATO once
confronted the Soviet Union. “I can’t say whether NATO membership
will be beneficial for Azerbaijan or not, since the organisations
Azerbaijan has joined up till now have done nothing good for our
country and haven’t brought a resolution to the Karabakh conflict
any closer,” he said.
Schoolteacher Azad Orujev, 30, said cooperation with NATO could only
benefit the country. He said soldiers should have higher wages and
their conditions of service should improve.
“But politically, membership in NATO cannot change anything in
Azerbaijan,” he said. “As long as we have oil, democracy will be
something we can only dream about.”
Jasur Mamedov is a journalist with Zerkalo newspaper in Baku.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

AZERBAIJAN AMENABLE TO TALKS WITH ARMENIA REGARDING N.KARABAKH
Kuwait News Agency, Kuwait
Nov 23 2006
MOSCOW, Nov 23 (KUNA) — Azerbaijan on Thursday agreed on holding
talks with Armenia at the presidential level on the disputed Nogorno
Karabakh settlement.
Taha Taqi Zadah, an Azerbaijani spokesman,told the Russian Interfax
News Agency that his country informed the head of Minsk group which
belongs to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
(Minsk) that his country would take part in talks on the disputed
Karabakh settlement.
Taqi described his meeting with Minsk’s representatives as positive
and fruitful.
The spokesman added that representatives from the European Union (EU)
showed determination to carry on efforts to bring closer stands and
peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

CYPRUS HAS NO PLANS FOR TURKEY VETO, WANTS SANCTIONS
Financial Mirror, Cyprus
Nov 23 2006
The government of Cyprus has no plans to impose a veto on Turkey’s
European Union accession course, but said Thursday that member states
are considering the type of sanctions to be imposed if Ankara continues
to defy all protocols.
Turkey’s refusal to recognize the Republic of Cyprus and its insistence
to prevent access to its ports and airports of Cypriot vessels, in
contravention of the Ankara Protocol, could result in the EU stopping
all accession talks with that country.
The Greek Cypriots also want the deserted town of Varosha to be
returned, initially under a United Nations mandate, in exchange for
allowing the Turkish-occupied port of Famagusta to gain international
recognition.
“The EU expects all applicants to implement the accession protocols,”
said President Tassos Papadopoulos after a meeting with the visiting
president of Armenia, Robert Kocharian.
“Nobody desires the interruption of talks with Turkey, but what is
being discussed (by other EU member states) is the type and height
of sanctions. The veto belongs to those who do not want to impose
sanctions on Turkey,” Papadopoulos said.
“Turkey’s relations with its neighbours also applies to Armenia,”
said Kocharian. He added that “as Turkey has desires to join the EU,
the process of its accession path interests us. This will also affect
relations between Armenia and Turkey.”
Responding to an invitation to visit Armenia, Papadopoulos accepted
but said Kocharian should not expect an answer too soon, as “we have
some very important matters to deal with next month.”
The Cypriot president has already shortened a visit to China so that he
will be back on the island on December 9, a few days after Turkey’s
final deadline to comply with the Ankara protocol and a few days
before the EU leaders’ meeting to continue or stop all accession talks.
“There is no difference in our policies with Armenia,” Papadopoulos
said. “The Cyprus government will continue to support Armenia at
international fora and in bilateral relations.”
The two presidents, accompanied by their foreign ministers and other
cabinet members, discussed ways to improve education, tourism, banking
and cultural cooperation and implement a number of agreements in 2007.
“In Cyprus there is a dynamic and high standard Armenian community,
Papadopoulos said, adding that “we continue will to utilize this
resource to further our cooperation in many fields. For that we have
promised every kind of support.”
“One more protocol remains to be signed on the protection of
investments and this will complete our obligations on the economic
chapter,” Kocharian concluded.

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP ANALYZED SITUATION IN GEORGIA TERRITORIES, DENSELY POPULATED BY AZERBAIJANIS AND ARMENIANS
Author: E.Javadova
TREND Information, Azerbaijan
Nov 23 2006
In the latest report, the International Crisis Group, examines the
grievances of Georgian Armenians and Azeri Minorities, Trend reports
with reference to the press-release of the International Crisis
Group. Georgia has made little progress towards integrating these
minorities, who constitute over 12% of the population. Armenians and
Azeris are underrepresented in all spheres of public life, especially
government, and lack of dialogue between them and Tbilisi adds to
perceptions of discrimination and alienation. This is aggravated
by economic problems, including high unemployment and decaying
infrastructure. “Tbilisi needs to do much more to build confidence
and to encourage minorities to address their problems through the
state structures rather than on the street”, said Sabine Freizer,
Crisis Group Caucasus Project Director. While the government denies
that there is any inequality, many minorities claim they are treated
as second-class citizens. Although the State took a number of steps to
improve the living standards of the national minorities, none of this
is likely to appease minorities political grievances without policies
that increase inclusion and participation. The government needs to
establish a comprehensive education system to teach Georgian as a
second language to minorities, but while a new generation is educated,
minorities should not be discriminated against, especially in hiring
for state jobs. The state should also implement its international
commitments, particularly allowing use of minority languages for state
affairs in municipalities with large numbers of minority citizens,
as it is in Europe.

IMF: IMF EXECUTIVE BOARD COMPLETES THIRD REVIEW UNDER PRGF ARRANGEMENT FOR ARMENIA AND APPROVES US$4.9 MILLION DISBURSEMENT
International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Nov 23 2006
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has
completed the third review of the Republic of Armenia’s economic
performance under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF)
arrangement.
The completion of the review enables Armenia to draw an amount
equivalent to SDR 3.28 million (about US$4.9 million), which will
bring total disbursements under the arrangement to the equivalent of
SDR 13.12 million (about US$19.5 million).
The Executive Board approved the three-year arrangement on May 25,
2005 (see Press Release No. 05/123) for a total amount equivalent to
SDR 23 million (about US$34.3 million) to support the government’s
economic program through 2008.
Following the Executive Board discussion, Mr. Takatoshi Kato, Deputy
Managing Director and Acting Chair, said:
“Armenia’s economy continues to perform well under its PRGF-supported
program. Prudent fiscal and monetary policies, large external inflows,
and ongoing structural reforms have contributed to double-digit
growth in a low inflation environment and to a sustained reduction
in poverty and unemployment. There has been impressive progress in
the areas of fiscal and financial sector reforms, including through
improved tax administration, strengthened prudential regulations and
oversight of the financial sector, and improved corporate governance
of banks. Looking ahead, the focus of the authorities’ policy will
be to manage the macroeconomic impact of continued large capital
inflows, and to boost tax revenue to finance expenditure increases
in infrastructure and social services.
“The authorities’ economic program for the remainder of 2006 and 2007
focuses on limiting inflationary pressures, maintaining a flexible
exchange rate arrangement, and improving tax revenue performance. The
draft 2007 budget is compatible with macroeconomic stability and
envisages a significant increase in tax revenues, which will be needed
to finance priority expenditures in infrastructure and social services.
“Continued fiscal and financial sector reforms remain key to sustaining
growth and reducing poverty. In the fiscal area, the authorities’
reform efforts will focus on broadening the tax base by reducing
exemptions and loopholes and on improving the predictability and
efficiency of tax administration. In the financial sector, reforms
in the period ahead will focus on improving corporate governance,
strengthening regulation and supervision, and deepening financial
intermediation, including through the development of the nonbank
financial sector,” Mr. Kato said.
Contact: -MF EXTERNAL RELATIONS DEPARTMENT Public Affairs Media
Relations Phone: 202-623-7300 Phone: 202-623-7100 Fax: 202-623-6278
Fax: 202-623-6772

ITO REPROACHES FRENCH DEPUTIES OVER ARMENIAN BILL
Turkish Press
Nov 23 2006
Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) Executive Board Chairman Murat
Yalcintas said yesterday that the French Parliament’s recent passage
of a bill criminalizing denial of the so-called Armenian genocide was
regrettable. The ITO organized a meeting bringing together the heads
of French firms in Turkey and members of the chamber with the aim
of developing ties between the two countries. French Ambassador Paul
Poudade also attended the gathering. Stressing that the recent move
had badly affected both political and business relations, Yalcintas
condemned France, saying that the country favored daily concerns over
deeply rooted historical ties. He added that the French Parliament’s
decision had disappointed the Turkish people, and called on French
allies to stop the bill. The French ambassador, for his part, said
that the bill would not go into force.