HEAD OF KHOJALI EXECUTIVE POWER AWAITS NO BENEFITS FOR AZERBAIJAN FROM ACTIVITIES OF OSCE MINSK GROUP
Author: A.Ismaylova
TREND Information, Azerbaijan
Nov 23 2006
The action of the OSCE Minsk Group has been directed towards applying
pressure on Azerbaijan, and have, in particular, made every effort
to transfer the Azerbaijani territories to Armenia, the Head of
the Executive Power of Khojali District, Deputy of the Azerbaijani
Parliament, Elman Mammadov, stated, Trend reports.
He stated that all the occupied Azerbaijani territories have been
captured and transferred to Armenia by Russia and the former Soviet
Government. “The first Armenian state was created in the territory of
France, the second one in the historical territory of Azerbaijan, and
now they want to establish the third Armenian state in the occupied
Azerbaijani territories with the support from France. America also
wants to demonstrate itself as the supporter of justice. If America
does recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, why does it
annually allocate finances to the unrecognized state,” Mammadov argued.
He mentioned in particular the periodical visits of the self-voted
Head of Nagorno-Karabakh to the USA, as well as the recent meeting
of the American co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group Matthew Bryza with
Arkadi Kukasyan, leader of the Separatist Nagorno-Karabakh regime.
“Matthew Bryza takes in this question the same position held by
Kukasyan and Armenian President Robert Kocharyan. There is no point in
Azerbaijan waiting for action from the OSCE Minsk Group. The countries
represented in the Minsk Group do not correspond with the fight for
justice,” Mammadov stated.

KOCHARIAN VISITS GREEK CYPRUS TO BOOST SUPPORT FOR GENOCIDE CLAIMS
The New Anatolian, Turkey
Nov 23 2006
Armenian President Robert Kocharian yesterday began a four-day
visit to Greek Cyprus, where he will participate in an inauguration
ceremony for a monument commemorating the victims of the so-called
Armenian genocide.
During the visit, the Armenian president will hold talks with
Greek Cypriot administration leader Tassos Papadopoulos and other
high-ranking Greek Cypriot officials to boost bilateral ties. The
visit is likely to draw Turkish criticism since Ankara is at odds with
Yerevan over the country’s campaign for recognition of the Armenian
genocide claims and has no diplomatic ties with the country, while
Turkey doesn’t also recognize the Greek Cypriot administration.
The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) was formed on the island
in response to a Greek coup aimed at enosis, or political union with
Greece, along with Greek attacks on the island’s Turkish population.
According to the Armenian Mediamax news agency, besides attending the
inauguration ceremony of the Armenian “genocide” monument in Larnaka,
Kocharian will also meet representatives of Armenian associations.
The Armenian source stated that the inauguration of the monument
aims at expressing Greek Cypriot support for those who survived the
so-called Armenian genocide.
Co-chairs tight-lipped on possible Kocharian-Aliyev meeting
No announcement has been made about a possible meeting of the
presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan after Tuesday’s visit by the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE9) Minsk
Group co-chairmen to Yerevan.
The delegates from Russia and France, Yuri Merzlyakov and Bernard
Fassier, met on Tuesday with Kocharian and Armenian Foreign Minister
Vartan Oskanian.
In a recent interview with U.S-based Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
(RFE/RL) Vartan Oskanian said that during their visit to the region,
the co-chairs will propose a meeting of the two presidents on the
sidelines of next Tuesday’s summit of the Commonwealth of Independent
States (CIS).
The co-chairs left Yerevan for Baku. Analysts have expressed the
opinion that a possible meeting may be announced after the co-chairs’
meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
Last week Robert Kocharian said, “Unfortunately, despite the ongoing
active negotiations, there are few grounds for optimism.”

BSEC PA MAY PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN REGULATING THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT – TURKISH PARLIAMENT DEPUTY
Author: S.Agayeva
TREND Information, Azerbaijan
Nov 23 2006
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Black Sea Economic Co-operation (BSEC
PA) may play a significant role in regulating the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, the Chairman of BSEC PA Committee for Culture, Education
and Social Matters, Deputy of the Turkish Parliament, Ali Teymur,
briefed the media in Baku, Trend reports.
According to him, BSEC PA always maintains the Nagorno-Karabakh problem
as a focus of attention. In the near future, the Black Sea region
will be an energy sector providing the world with energy resources,
and it is very important to establish peace and stability in that
region, the Deputy stated.

AZERBAIJAN POSSESSES AMPLE FINANCIAL OPPORTUNITIES AND MILITARY POTENTIAL TO SETTLE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT – MARMARA FUND HEAD
Author: A.Ismaylova
TREND Information, Azerbaijan
Nov 23 2006
“Azerbaijan possesses enough financial opportunities, forces and
military potential to settle the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict. However, despite this, Azerbaijan has decided to resolve the
situation through negotiations, and we consider that it is a promising
situation,” the Director General of the Turkish Marmara Fund, Akan
Suver, stated on 23 November at a briefing in the General Assembly
of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Black Sea Economic Co-operation
(BSEC PA) whilst acting as an observer, Trend reports.
According to him, Azerbaijan has proved to the world that the
Nagorno-Karabakh is not a territory of Armenia, but is Azerbaijani
territory. At present, the international organizations and the world
have publicly acknowledged this fact, he said.
In addition, Suver noted that the NGOs, especially the Marmara Fund,
have participated for the first time at the meeting of the BSEC PA as
observers. As a result of the observation, he appropriately mentioned
the speeches of the Israeli and Georgian delegates who attracted the
participants’ attention to their own problems. Such events should be
an opportunity for Azerbaijan and Turkey to raise issues linked with
Nagorno-Karabakh and other problems, Suver emphasized.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

A NECESSARY AND POSITIVE STEP
Etyen Mahcupyan
Zaman, Turkey
Nov 23 2006
Undoubtedly, one of the issues that has been giving Turkey the most
trouble in recent years is the problem called the Armenian question;
however, it has a multi-faceted character, and some of these facets
are sometimes ignored. While one aspect of the issue is that a
moment in history that is perceived and known differently by the two
parties has reached a point where it can be discussed, at the same
time, another aspect implies the normalization of Turkish-Armenian
relations and the democratization of Turkey’s non-Muslim minority
policy. However, the matter doesn’t end here… Since the world is
global now, international and domestic politics are carried to a
universal dimension by means of emigrant groups in the outside world,
and the tension in the foreign countries sheltering the emigrants is
used as a part of their own political search and tactics.
On the other hand, as is always the case in this kind of bottleneck,
there are groups who aim to continue the tension on both sides and
produce ideological profit for its own political community.
Consequently, as a result of the multi-faceted pressure, demands
and manipulations coming from both inside and outside, the Armenian
issue creates paralysis. Because nation-state politics are based on an
account of mutual compromise, instead of resolving the bottleneck, it
wants to prolong it. Because whoever takes the first step will appear
as having compromised in the eyes of it own nationalist sector, and,
particularly in countries headed towards elections, taking these kinds
of courageous steps in foreign policy becomes extremely difficult. As
a result, “politics” is reduced to states mutually adorning themselves
with a “constructive” image in an effort to show the other party as
intransigent as possible.
In this way, the tendency of the periods of non-relations, which harm
both sides, to continue forever is surrendered to…Until a change
in conjecture that will break this mechanical balance appears and at
least both parties agree that non-action is a risky position with a
big price tag. This is the point to which we have come in the Armenian
issue: In respect to the external conjuncture, the main change is, as
everyone knows, the Democrats’ gaining a majority in the U.S. Congress
after a long interval. Because there is a tradition of strong relations
between the Democrats and the Armenian Diaspora and in an environment
where the Bush administration is extremely fragile due to Iraq,
the probability that a proposal for recognition of genocide will be
passed by Congress is quite high. Of course, even if it is America,
any country’s taking a political decision regarding history in another
geographical land cannot be sanctioned. However, the U.S.’s acceptance
of such a proposal may trigger a wave of “recognizing genocide” that
will spread to other countries and drag Turkey to spiritual isolation
in the global world.
For this reason, Turkey has to be pro-active regarding every facet of
the subject called the “Armenian issue.” Even though the decision to
“go to court” announced by the Foreign Affairs Ministry during the
week appears to be courage imposed by necessity, it is a step taken
in the right direction. If Armenia says yes to the workings of this
kind of “arbitration” institution, at least both societies will have
a chance to know our common history and understand events from the
other’s point of view. However, of course, a legal decision includes
a risk: No one can be one-hundred percent sure of which direction
the decision will take… Consequently, regardless of what kind of
decision is taken, it shouldn’t cause the losing party to become more
introverted and give way to the habit of nurturing its identity with
traumas. The way to do this is increasing as much as possible every
kind of trade, cultural and social relations parallel to the judicial
process. Even if the Turkish-Armenian border cannot be formally opened,
it has to open in practice. Because the psychological atmosphere that
will surround the discussions may cause not only the court to review
history, but Turkey to review its current attitude.

OSCE MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRS MAKES JOINT STATEMENT
Azeri Press Agency, Azerbaijan
Nov 23 2006
OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs made a joint statement on the results of
their last visit to the region, French Embassy told the APA.
The statement reads that Presidents accepted to meet in Minsk on
margins of the next CIS meeting.
” The Co-Chairs met with Presidents Robert Kocharian and Ilham Aliyev,
as well as with Foreign Ministers. As a result of these meetings, which
took place in an open minded and constructive spirit, both Presidents
accepted Co-Chairs’ proposal to meet in Minsk next week on the margins
of the CIS Heads of States Council meeting. The discussions in both
meetings confirmed that the consultations between the Foreign Ministers
which took place in Moscow, Paris and Brussels in October-November
were useful in moving of the negotiations forward. The Co-Chairs hope
that, the upcoming meetings with the Presidents end Foreign Ministers
in Minsk will allow taking a step toward an agreement on principles
for the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, as endorsed by
the G8 leaders in St. Petersburg in July”.

ARMENIA ARMED FORCES VIOLATES CEASEFIRE
Azeri Press Agency, Azerbaijan
Nov 23 2006
Armenian Armed Forces continues to violate the ceasefire, Azerbaijan
Defense Ministry press service told the APA.
Armenian Armed Forces’ units in Bash Gervend village of occupied
Aghdam region fired on opposite positions of Azerbaijani Armed Forces
by machines and sub machines from 03.30 to 04.20 on November 23. The
enemy was silenced by response fire. Armenian Armed Forces units
in Mehdili village and the Araz territories of occupied Jebrail
region fired on opposite positions of Azerbaijani Armed Forces by
machine-guns since 19.50, the residents of front villages of Fuzuli
region told APA Garabagh bureau. The exchange of fire continued for
35 minutes. The enemy was silenced by response fire.
Today, Armenian Armed Forces in Yusifjanli village of occupied Aghdam
region fired on opposite positions of Azerbaijani Armed Forces by
machine-guns from 10.55 to 11.10. No casualty was reported.

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP REPORTS ON ARMENIAN, AZERI MINORITIES
Civil Georgia, Georgia
Nov 23 2006
Despite some steps undertaken by the Georgian government to improve the
lives of minorities, it has made little progress towards integrating
the Armenians and Azeris who constitute over 12% of the population,
the Belgium-based International Crisis Group said in a report on the
situation of the two minorities in Georgia.
The report says that while there is no risk of the situations becoming
threats to the state’s territorial integrity, like S.Ossetia or
Abkhazia, tensions are evident in the regions of Samtskhe-Javakheti and
Kvemo Kartli, where the Armenian and Azeri minorities, respectively,
predominantly live.
“Tbilisi needs to pay more attention to minority rights, including
use of second languages, if it is to avoid further conflict,” the
report says.
International Crisis Group outlined the inability to speak the state
language as “the minorities’ biggest problem.”
The report notes that with donor support, Georgia has invested in
road and infrastructure rehabilitation in minority regions; created
a ministry for civic integration; established a public administration
institute to train minorities; and ratified the Framework Convention
for the Protection of National Minorities.
“But overall the priority has been to assert national unity over
minority protection.”

SECOND TRAINLOAD OF EQUIPMENT LEAVES RUSSIAN GARRISON IN GEORGIA
RIA Novosti, Russia
Nov 23 2006
TBILISI, November 23 (RIA Novosti) – A second trainload of equipment
and ammunition left a Russian garrison outside the Georgian capital,
Tbilisi, on Thursday, in keeping with Russia’s commitment to withdraw
from its military bases in the post-Soviet Caucasus state by the end
of 2008.
Russia’s South Caucasus Command said the train set off from the suburb
of Vaziani at 5 a.m., and is heading for Russia through Azerbaijan.
The Vaziani garrison will be pulled out before the end of the year,
ahead of the earliest of the withdrawal deadlines for Russian forces in
the South Caucasus state, set for 2007. The defense minister decided
on an early pullout in mid-October, amid a diplomatic feud between
the former Soviet allies.
The Vaziani base had about a hundred items of equipment and 350 metric
tons of ammunition before the first consignment was withdrawn a week
ago for redeployment to a base in neighboring Armenia.
Two more consignments are slated for removal in December, with one to
be sent to Armenia, and the other to Russia. The garrison’s 387 service
personnel will leave once the equipment pullout has been completed.
Russia and Georgia have been locked in a bitter diplomatic dispute
since September, when four Russian army officers were briefly arrested
in Tbilisi on suspicion of espionage.
The move outraged Moscow, which cut transportation and postal links
with its neighbor in response, deported hundreds of Georgian migrants
and shut down Georgian-run businesses for alleged violations of
Russian law.
Georgia’s Western-leaning leadership, which seeks to join NATO, is
uneasy about Russia’s continued military presence, and has repeatedly
urged Moscow to withdraw from its Soviet-era bases.
Under a bilateral agreement signed in March 2006 and ratified by
Russia’s parliament in October, the pullout from the Russian bases in
the southern city of Akhalkalaki and in Batumi, in western Georgia, is
to be completed by October 1, 2007, and October 1, 2008, respectively.

“THERE ARE ALL PREREQUISITES FOR ESTABLISHING PROTECTORATE OVER HISTORICAL ARMENIAN LANDS IN THE TERRITORY OF TURKEY”: ARMENIAN PRESS DIGEST
Regnum, Russia
Nov 23 2006
The CIS is 15 years old
Speaker of the Armenian Parliament Tigran Torossyan and Speaker of
the Federation Council of Russia Sergey Mironov met in St. Petersburg
on Nov 16, in the framework of the 27th plenary session of the CIS
Inter-parliamentary Assembly. The press service of the Armenian
Parliament has informed REGNUM that Torossyan and Mironov discussed
the questions concerning the work of the CIS IP, the meeting of the
Caucasian Four and the forthcoming visit of Torossyan to Moscow. The
speakers of the parliaments of Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Russia
(the Caucasian Four) met in St. Petersburg the same day.
The CIS is an active and successful organization, the speaker
of the Armenian Parliament Tigran Torossyan said during the 27th
plenary session of the CIS Inter-parliamentary Assembly. “After the
collapse of the USSR, the post-Soviet republics faced a very difficult
situation and were forced to create new state and inter-state systems,
to establish new economic ties, to develop democracy, to solve serious
problem,” Torossyan said. And the CIS proved to be very useful as it
helped them to effectively legislate and to solve the post-Soviet
problems. “So, we can say that the CIS is an active and successful
organization,” Torossyan said.
He said that the CIS IP has become so strong that it can already be
a good arena for the CIS countries to discuss their problems. “For
this purpose, we should develop new mechanisms and new opportunities,”
Torossyan said. He pointed out the role of the CIS IP in the life of
the CIS, in drafting national legislation, overcoming confrontations,
establishing peace in the region. Torossyan said that the CIS IP has
good prospects for deepening its role and wished it success in its
further activities. (ARKA).
Elections in the US and the “Armenian Cause”
“During the last elections the Hay Dat (Armenian Cause) Committee of
America supported 198 candidates: 18 for the Senate, the rest for the
Congress. Almost 93% of them have been elected. The basic argument
for Hay Dat was a candidate’s position on number of crucial issues: if
he supports the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, the protection
of Nagorno-Karabakh’s right to self-determination, the provision of
US financial assistance to Armenia and NK, etc.,” says Kiro Manoyan,
“Armenian Cause” officer of the ARFD Bureau (in the program of the
ARF Dashnaktsutiun the “Armenian Cause” is a complex of measures for
attaining the recognition of the Armenian Genocide and compensation
for the relevant damage and for returning the territories historically
populated by Armenians – REGNUM)
Manoyan says that Hay Dat hopes that the Democrats they have supported
will justify their expectations (concerning the recognition of the
Armenian Genocide). True, formerly too the Democrats were in the Senate
and the Congress, but now the situation is quite different: “This
time some Democrats not only spoke and promised but also acted. In
two years the Democrats and the Republicans will run in presidential
elections and neither of them would like the well-organized Armenian
community of America to act against them.”
Meanwhile, Hayots Ashkharh daily reports the co-chairs of the Armenian
Caucus, congressmen Frank Pallone and Joe Knollenberg to say that,
together with their colleagues Adam Schiff and George Radanovich,
they will draft and submit to the new Congress a resolution for the
recognition of the Armenian Genocide. They hope that the resolution
will be adopted to once and for all confirm the historical truth
about the crime committed by Ottoman Turkey against Armenians in
1915-1923. The congressmen point out that the recognition of this
horrible fact will be the first step towards preventing such crimes
in the future and will give sense to the phrase “never again.” Pallone
and Knollenberg are glad that 90% of the Armenian Caucus members have
been reelected.
Armenian Ex FM Alexander Arzoumanyan has commented on the statement
of Manoyan that after the parliamentary elections in the US Hay Dat
asked the US Senate to appoint somebody else but Richard Hoagland
as US Ambassador to Armenia and that ARF Dashnaktsutiun is against
the candidacy of Hoagland because he does not pronounce the word
“genocide.” Hayk daily reports Arzoumanyan as saying: “It’s strange
that a 116-year-old party has focused its whole potential on this
problem while there are plenty of other unresolved problems in the
country.” At the same time, Arzoumanyan notes that even Kiro Manoyan
as US Ambassador would hardly recognize the Armenian Genocide.
The Armenian Genocide topic is in no way a taboo in the American
press. One of the editors of Associated Press says that AP always calls
spade a spade. It has always said that the Armenian Genocide did take
place, while the US administration keeps denying this fact and just
says that there were tragic events during the WWI. AP has never put
this term in quotes. Most American politicians link this term with
US-Turkish relations. Most of them give priority to Turkey’s entry
into the EU and therefore keep silence about the Armenian Genocide. One
electoral technologist says that the Democrats will hardly adopt a law
on the Armenian Genocide. “The Armenian Genocide took place long ago
on some other planet, and ordinary Americans don’t care for it. They
care much more for the problem of abortions and the war in Iraq –
exactly in this sequence.”
Will Turkey file a claim?
Turkey is drafting new initiatives in the context of the correspondence
between Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan and Armenian President
Robert Kocharyan, Turkish FM Abdullah Gul said in the Turkish National
Assembly. Referring to Zaman daily (Turkey), ArmInfo news agency
reports Gul as saying that Turkey is going to advance new initiatives
concerning Erdogan’s proposal to set up a joint Armenian-Turkish
historical commission for studying the events of 1915. Gul notes that
Turkish and foreign experts are already studying this issue.
The claims of Armenians and the influence of this issue on Turkey’s
relations with other countries are one of the key problems of
Ankara in the coming decade, Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah
Gul said, while speaking with Turkish MPs about the Armenian
Genocide. Gul took interest in the proposal by the MP from the
opposition National-Democratic Party, former diplomat Sukru Alakdag
for preventing the recognition of the Armenian Genocide. Alakdag
demanded that Ankara address the Hague Court: “Turkey should say
in the court that it is ready to investigate the events of 1915 in
line with the UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the
Crime of Genocide. If the Armenians reject this proposal, this will
prove Turkey’s legal and moral rights and will substantially curb the
attempts to manipulate this problem for political purposes.” Gul noted
that the Turkish authorities give much importance to the opinion of
the experienced diplomat and assured that they will do their best for
“the triumph of the truth”: “We are thinking about addressing the
Hague Court and are consulting not only our own but also foreign
lawyers.” (Respublika Armenii).
The idea of Turkey’s addressing international courts, particularly,
the Hague Court, is not new. Its author is the retired Turkish
diplomat Gunduz Aktan, who was Turkish Ambassador to different
European structures for a long time, the director of the Institute
for Oriental Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia
Ruben Safrastyan says in an interview to PanARMENIAN.Net. At that time,
Turkey had two scenarios: “They were going either to continue denying
the Armenian Genocide or to address the Hague Court in hope that the
Armenians will not be able to prove that the events of 1915 were a
genocide. The General Staff chose to continue the policy of denial,”
says Safrastyan. At the same time, he reminds PanARMENIAN.net that
Aktan is one of the toughest Turkish politicians and, when a member
to the Armenian-Turkish Reconciliation Commission, he always spoke
against the Armenia Genocide.
Following the proposal of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan,
Yeni Safak daily (Turkey) suggests that the Turkish authorities
should first examine their own archives. Noyan Tapan reports the
daily to say that there are a number of documents proving that the
events 1915 were not a genocide but just a deportation. “But, on the
other hand, there are hundreds of thousands (let’s not say million)
of lost ordinary people who did not take part in wars or revolts,
and nobody says anything about documents concerning those people. By
such one-sided documents we will not convince anybody of anything,”
says the daily. “If we can’t open the archives that may contain such
documents, if we prefer opening only convenient archives, we can’t
be convincing in the matter; but that’s exactly what we are doing,”
says the daily.
Reanimation of the Treaty of Sevres?
The former ambassador of Armenia to Canada Ara Papyan believes that
there are all prerequisites for establishing legal protectorate over
historical Armenian lands in the territory of Turkey. He says that
Armenia should address the UN courts. “Our country should seek to
attain the acknowledgement of the Treaty of Sevres as this is the
only document signed by the Armenian authorities at the time when
Armenia was a subject of the international law,” says Papyan. “If the
international community recognizes Armenia’s legal protectorate over a
part of the territory of present-day Turkey, Armenia will get access
to the transit routes running via its historical lands and will also
be able to sue British Petroleum for its failure to coordinate with
the Armenian Government the construction of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
oil pipeline,” says Papyan. (ArmInfo).
“Ara Papyan’s approach is quite realistic,” says the “Armenian Cause”
officer of the ARFD Bureau Kiro Manoyan. “Article 89 of the Treaty of
Sevres empowered US President Woodrow Wilson to draw a border between
Armenia and Turkey and he gave Armenia a territory of 160,000 sq km,”
says Manoyan.
Armenia-EU
Two events took place in Brussels on Nov 14 and one of them may
become historic, says Novoye Vremya daily, meaning the EU-Armenia
New Neighborhood Policy Action Plan. “The singing of the Action
Plan means new quality of relations with the EU. It is opening up
good opportunities for integration into the EU,” says Armenian FM
Vardan Oskanyan. Meanwhile, the daily notes that the EU has its
own priorities: human rights, democracy, supremacy of law – this is
the “price” the Caucasian states have to pay for the New European
Neighborhood.
EU High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy
Javier Solana says that to the new neighbors the EU will apply
the same mechanisms as it applied to candidate-states. If the
signatory-governments fail to comply with the agreements, the
cooperation with them will be minimized and, vice versa, if they show
commitment to reform their states and societies, they will enjoy
growing cooperation and support. Solana says that the EU prefers
dealing with the region as a whole. The EU wants the South Caucasian
states to cooperate with each other. The EU wants to cooperate with
the region as a whole, which means that the regional conflicts must be
resolved. “We want to see joint progress… And I very much hope that
we will catalyze this process for the sake of peace…” says Solana.
PanArmenian.Net reports EU Special Representative in the South
Caucasus Peter Semneby to say that the European Neighborhood Policy
provides for financial assistance, but Armenia and Azerbaijan should
use the money for reforms in order to become more European. The EU
will closely follow the forthcoming parliamentary and presidential
elections in Armenia – it will be an acid-test for the country.
Some political figures and experts say that the EU-Armenia Action Plan
signed in Brussels may not only fail to give any profit to Armenia
but may even pose a threat to it, says Lragir daily. MP Shavarsh
Kocharyan says that after the USSR collapse Armenia was expected to
be the fourth post-Soviet republic after the Baltic states to become
EU member. “However, in the past 15 years Armenia has gone very far
from the European standards,” says Kocharyan. He noted that, today,
Armenia should have been an EU candidate, at least. On the other
hand, the country still has a chance for effective democratization
and for becoming the locomotive of Euro-integration in the South
Caucasus. Unless it goes this way, it will get into total isolation,
says Kocharyan.
Expert Armen Manvelyan says that that EU-Armenia Action Plan is just
a lever of influence for Europe. He says that “the only difference
between Bolshevik Russia and democratic Europe is their levers
of influence, while their goal is common – to have a controllable
Armenia.” Manvelyan believes that blind imitation of the European
values may throw Armenia back at the bottom of the ladder.
American political expert Richard Kirakossian says that the EU’s entry
into the South Caucasus serves the interests of the US. Of course,
there is a rivalry between the US and the EU but, on the other hand,
for the US, the EU in the region is a desirable counterbalance
to Russia. Kirakossian says that Armenia is facing the threat of
isolation. Today, Georgia is moving into the EU the quickest of all,
while Azerbaijan may be interesting for the EU in terms of its energy
potential. This all can put Armenia into a total isolation unless the
country starts doing something about its internal situation rather
continues catering for external forces.
If the elections in Armenia fail to comply with the international
standards, the EU may decide to strengthen its relations with Georgia
and Azerbaijan only, leaving Armenia behind, American political expert
Richard Kirakossian said during a press-conference on Nov 18.
REGNUM reports him to say that gross violations during the elections
may result in the stoppage of the Millennium Challenge program and
general disappointment in Armenia. In fact, the international community
has set higher standards for Armenia and will be more intolerant
to electoral fraud there than in some other countries. If Armenia
conducts unfair elections, it will lose one more chance, Kirakossian
said. Asked if Armenia may hope that, if democratic, it will be
admitted into the EU irrespective of its neighbors, Kirakossian said
that the key obstacle in this matter is Armenia’s excessive dependence
on Russia. Kirakossian does not insist that Armenia should turn 100%
towards the EU, but it should be more self-sufficient and should stop
imitating relations with Russia or the EU.
The Economist (UK) notes that despite war, economic collapse and
devastating earthquake, Armenia seems to be overcoming its problems.
However, this is a limited process: after definite progress in the
late 90s, the reforms in Armenia stalled. The famous Armenian brandy
exclusive, the country’s export is very insignificant. Armenia
heavily relies on foreign aid and transfers from the gigantic
Diaspora. Because of migration, the country’s population is much
smaller than officially stated 2.9 million. As if rivaling with
his patrons in the Kremlin, President of Armenia Robert Kocharyan
curbs mass media and rigs elections. Corruption is thriving. You
will hardly find any politicians in Armenia who would not like to
replace Kocharyan after 2008 and you find it even harder to find
anybody believing that the elections 2008 will be fair. Just like
Ilham Aliyev, who has inherited his power from his father, Kocharyan
is promising reforms in order to calm down the United States, and
no surprise that most Armenians have become so cynical in the past
years that they no longer expect anything more than that from their
authorities, says the Economist. (Radio Liberty Armenia)