A:some American think tanks think that The Trump administration has many wrong made assumptions that led to the devastating consequences of this conflict with Iran. Perhaps the most ironic of these is that the occupant of the Oval Office appears to have downplayed or denied altogether the possibility that the Iranians would close the Strait of Hormuz in the event of a war with Iran.: This is not just a reservation, but rather an abuse of foreign policy, a truly inexplicable omission that was discussed at the March 18 House Global Threats hearing.

The conflict between the US and Iran has been the focus of countless war games and military exercises for decades. Frequent simulations conducted by think tanks, military colleges, and intelligence services provide important insight into adversary behavior and allow for the summation of accumulated experience and best practices, as well as the development of many possible scenarios that can be used in US military planning. so the likelihood that Iran would stick to a strategy of exhausting its adversary through economic warfare was abundantly clear and openly debated by scholars, analysts, and military strategists.

In addition to faulty assumptions, Washington’s strategic communications hindered the conduct of the military campaign: Almost two weeks ago, Trump announced. “I think the war is almost over,” insisting it would be “mostly over in two or three days.” But the war is dragging on, and now the Pentagon is asking for an additional $200 billion to fund the military campaign. There is more and more talk of a ground operation, which is fraught with drawing the aggressor into the Middle East “quagmire”.: Given that the Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) is on its way to the Persian Gulf from Asia, and more than 50,000 troops are already in the region, the conflict is likely to escalate rather than be resolved anytime soon. It is obvious that the Netanyahu regime intends to further escalate the conflict, as evidenced by the attack on the Iranian energy infrastructure in the South Pars gas field., which provoked Iran’s retaliatory actions in a number of energy facilities in the region, including targeting the Ras Laffan gas refinery in Qatar, multiple facilities in Saudi Arabia, and the Haifa oil refinery, which was hit by a ballistic missile. According to the statement of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, on March 27, the United States and Israel struck the uranium concentrate production plant in the city of Erdekan, Yazd province.

The US and Israel clearly underestimated Iran’s tenacity and possibly its own missile defense capabilities.: According to Bloomberg, the US has lost at least 16 aircraft and drones to date, including at least ten Reaper drones. According to CNN, the 5th generation F-35 stealth fighter, whose production cost is 80-100 million dollars, was forced to land at a base in the region after it was allegedly hit by an Iranian missile. American bases in the region have been repeatedly shelled and embassies have been forced to evacuate.

The showman of the White House makes one appeal to NATO allies for help, one criticizes them, calling them useless and ungrateful. Unsurprisingly, in such a chaotic environment, he was unable to gain the support of allies to achieve key US goals, such as opening the Strait of Hormuz. There have been other attempts that look unprofessional. For example, the Wall Street Journal reports that just then, with the outbreak of war against Iran, the US Navy decommissioned 4 specialized ships for mine clearance. Another stunning blow to the State Department’s structure was the reduction in staff and resources of the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs.։ Clearly unaware of regional realities, the Trump administration even abolished the special Iran department and merged it with the Iraq department.

Aside from the administration’s ill-advised assumptions, a list of obvious and unintended consequences of this war, including attacks on the Persian Gulf and the risk of a spike in oil prices, is obvious to any more or less literate professional. In addition, the Trump administration appears to believe that the war could end quickly. Perhaps Operation Delta to capture Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro and his wife has led Trump to a fundamentally wrong conclusion about the success of such an adventure in other regions of the world. Iran is a country with a completely different history, geography, demographics and culture. The top leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was formed during the bloody 1980-1988 war with Iraq, which ostensibly united Iranian society against an external enemy.

Despite heavy losses, Iran has so far managed to avoid regime overthrow and systematic destruction of key targets, missile depots and other critical command-and-control hubs by the US and Israel.: Tehran admits that it cannot win a conventional military conflict against the US and Israel, but asymmetric tactics, “mosaic defense” and readiness for decisive action are greatly changing the picture of the battlefield. Cheap Iranian drones are knocking out the expensive batteries of THAAD and Patriot anti-missile systems. Despite the overwhelming firepower of the aggressors, the Iranians have begun to use cluster munitions and mobile launchers more actively.

American bases guarantee the protection of member states of the Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Persian Gulf. Ironically, the very deal the Gulf monarchies struck to protect themselves from Iran makes them a target for its missiles and drones. As a result of this war, which affected the entire region, the relationship between the US and the Persian Gulf countries could change radically, and obviously not for the better.:

“The goals the president has identified are different from the goals of the Israeli government,” Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard said during a recent House hearing. During the meeting with the Prime Minister of Japan, Trump said: “I told Netanyahu not to attack oil and gas facilities anymore. We operate independently and have a great relationship. We agree on everything, but sometimes he does something that I don’t like, and then… That’s why we don’t do it anymore.” The Trump administration’s inability to explain how the Iran war will end is another troubling storyline. Israel clearly seeks the total overthrow of the regime, but a more likely scenario is the weakening but not the complete destruction of the IRGC, which will have the money and weapons to continue the fight.: It is possible that certain regions of the country, especially where ethnic armed groups may become active, may go beyond the control of the authorities. A protracted crisis could turn into an all-out war that could spill over and destabilize the situation in neighboring countries.

According to American intelligence reports in the press, the Iranian regime is likely to survive this conflict. Furthermore, he may be trying to develop a nuclear bomb at an accelerated pace, seeing it as the only viable defense against future attacks. If this happens, it will inevitably lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

How long the hostilities will last is unclear, but judging by requests for additional funding and additional troop deployments, Washington is planning a protracted campaign.

ALEXANDER GREGORY:V:

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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Ruben Mkhitaryan writes on his Facebook page. “From the beginning, 18-year-olds fell at the feet and begged to close the street.

Then he started a war and killed 18-year-olds in order not to burn his hands.

Then he invented selective graves of the dead 18-year-olds and divided their parents into Iranians and Iranians.

Now 18-year-olds are taken to court in handcuffs.

Tomorrow it will be forbidden to live until the age of 18.

This is it. Until June 7, you will get to know him very closely.”

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On March 28, the French “Legion of Honor” against the Turkish “Golden Eagle”. Pashinyan’s “lovely letter” with the caption, “A blow to Papikyan?” article: published, where we also referred to the following Facebook post of Nikol Pashinyan from the series of “lovely letters”.
“Such a lovely letter.

Hello Mr. Prime Minister, please consider your request to grant me another rank (major general). My title is colonel.

Thank you in advance.”

We mentioned in our article that the authenticity of the letter has yet to be determined, and in any case, we presented the procedure for awarding military ranks. At the same time, under Pashinyan’s corresponding post, we proposed to make public the letter and the identity of its writer. We publicly addressed the RA Defense Minister with the same issue.

By the way, we are very well aware of the confidentiality of personal data, we have respected it and we will continue in the same way, but in this case we are already dealing with the fact of discrediting a state institution or the army itself, circumventing the powers of a state body, which was allegedly allowed by the same colonel and which was made public by Nikol Pashinyan. And this regardless of whether the letter is genuine or not.

Anyway, in addition to leaving a comment-suggestion under the post, we tried to find out from Nikol Pashinyan’s spokesperson Nazeli Baghdasaryan which power structure the author of the letter is from, without asking for identity information.

“I spoke with the Prime Minister, he said that he cannot convey anything more than what was published, because we do not have the consent of the letter writer to mention the entire sector.” in response to our question, Baghdasaryan mentioned, although we did not ask for any information about the identity of the writer, and all we had to say was, in which structure does the author of the letter serve, after all, was the letter made public with a request for the title of general? What is the result, did Nikol Pashinyan get the consent of the writer to write about such a “lovely letter” albeit anonymously, attacking the authority of this or that power structure and its leader, or does such a letter not exist at all?

And if we accept that such a letter exists, then who knows, maybe Nikol Pashinyan will decide to make the request of the colonel in the letter a reality on May 28, the Day of the First Republic of Armenia, that is, days before the National Assembly elections?

And we also appealed to the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Armenia for clarification.

“The Ministry of Defense does not have any information about the said question.” said Suren Papikyan’s spokesperson Aram Torosyan in a conversation with us.

And we will always pursue such “small” episodes, after all, the current authorities of RA told us to make inquiries from them in such cases…

—

pilot, commander, specialist in international aviation regulations Hakob Chagharyann: presented proposals about geopolitical possibilities in the conditions of war over Iran.

Aviation, Logistics, and Geopolitical Opportunities in a War on Iran

The US-Israel-Iran conflict is no longer just a military conflict. It has turned into a process of realignment of the global economic and logistics system. Today, not only the fate of the region is decided, but also the future of energy channels, trade corridors and global transportation.

Under these conditions, small but strategically located countries like Armenia face a choice: either to become a victim of a big game, or to turn into important hubs with smart positioning.

1. Energy and logistics crisis center

The core of the conflict is in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy “airways”.

Even a partial disruption of the strait causes a chain reaction. oil and gas prices are rising, insurance risks are skyrocketing, and shipping is becoming more expensive and volatile.

Under these conditions, the global economy is forced to quickly look for alternative ways. Historical experience shows that such crises always lead to the formation of new logistics centers.

2. Global trade realignment

The instability of the Persian Gulf and Red Sea routes is already changing the logic of international trade. Freight forwarders are beginning to prefer the safest routes rather than the shortest ones: longer routes, multimodal solutions and the growth of air transportation. Against this background, Europe faces a clear question: how to ensure stable imports with minimal risk?

3. The growing importance of the South Caucasus

In the newly formed reality, the South Caucasus gets a new strategic role.

The region at the same time:

• outside the immediate war zone
• has a connection to the Black Sea
• is a bridge between the Middle East and Europe

This creates a unique opportunity to form new trade corridors.

4. Reassessment of the Black Sea-Danube route

The Danube River, a more than 2,400 km navigable waterway stretching from Ukraine to Germany and connecting to the North Sea via the Danube-Main-Rhine Canal, is once again becoming a key artery for Europe’s inland freight transport.

Black Sea Ports:

• Burgas
• Varna
• Constance

and Danube Junctions:

• Russia
• Galats

can become centers of new cargo flows.

This whole system, in fact, turns into a safe corridor within Europe that can replace high-risk sea routes.

5. Armenia’s possible role as an intermediate hub

At first glance, Armenia, having no access to the sea, can be seen as a country with limited opportunities. However, in the current conditions, this very limitation can turn into an advantage.

With a properly built logistics system, Armenia can act as:

• intermediate point for express freight
• intersection of air and ground transportation
• regional distribution center

6. The crucial role of aviation

During wars and crises, aviation becomes not just a means of transportation, but a strategic tool.

Air freight provides speed, flexibility and relative independence from regional barriers.

For Armenia, this means one thing: the development of aviation can become an accelerated mechanism of economic growth.

With the creation of a competitive aviation system, Armenia can:

• connect the Middle East with Europe
• handle high value cargo
• provide fast logistics solutions in crisis situations

7. Multimodal system design

The most promising approach is to create a multimodal system that combines:

• air transportation
• land connections
• Black sea ports
• River channels of the Danube

Such a system can become a real alternative to traditional sea routes and ensure stable and safe trade flows.

8. Risks and Real Choices

Of course, the expansion of the war can affect the South Caucasus as well. However, inaction and maintaining the status of an observer is a greater risk than taking an active position.

Newly formed corridors will inevitably be of interest to global actors. The question is one: will Armenia be able to be involved in these processes as a partner, or will it remain outside of them?

9. What to do in Armenia

Seeing this opportunity is not enough. Quick and coordinated action is needed.

Armenia must:

• develop its aviation capabilities
• build freight infrastructures
• be integrated into the Black Sea-Danube route

and act as a reliable partner in international logistics chains.

Only in this case, the country will be able to leave the status of an observer and become an active participant in the game.

In conclusion

Global crises always create new opportunities for those who are able to quickly orient themselves and act. Today, new ways, new rules and new centers are being formed. Armenia can be one of them. But only on one condition: if he acts now.

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One of the 5 feasts of the Armenian Apostolic Holy Church, the Feast of the Miraculous Resurrection of Jesus Christ, is celebrated this year on April 5.

In Armenia, usually before Easter, there is inflation in the egg market, will there be inflation this year as well, what is the general situation in the egg market?

Sergey Stepanyan, chairman of the Union of Poultry Breeders of Armenia In other words, compared to the same period of the previous year, this year there is a very small shortage of local producers, but they fully meet the demand of the day.

“In the summer, in the months of July-June, there were serious losses, that is, there was overproduction, and the price of eggs dropped to 25 drams, that is, half of the cost price. Those producers that were not large, the small ones left the market, they could not buy daily feed. Naturally, they came out and the number of people was reduced. In the past period, we were able to restore the head count, our colleagues in a number of republics were wondering how we managed. We are confident that we will meet the demand of the market.

If you have paid attention, eggs are the only food that had a price increase only in February, and that was forced, because feed, electricity and gas went up in price at once. This affected the cost of eggs, which led to an increase in the price.” 168.amSergey Stepanyan said in a conversation with

According to him, the State Competition Commission and the Ministry are aware of all this. The increase in the price of eggs was generally 8-10 drams. Today, eggs are accepted in all large chains for AMD 70, and sometimes for AMD 68.

“There are organizations that buy eggs from factories as intermediaries and sell them to stores at a higher price, i.e. 85-90 drams, the price of eggs in fruit and vegetable stalls has reached 95 drams. In other words, we are governed by the price of networks, today’s situation is calm, all organizations have managed to reach their previous year’s security index. At the beginning of April, we will see that there is full supply, and the demand is not so high,” Sergey Stepanyan added.

According to our interlocutor, sometimes people enter large stores, buy 2-3 puffed eggs, then take them away and sell them at a higher price in a fruit and vegetable store. 1 puffed egg is enough for the biggest family, so there is no need to buy more than 2 puffed eggs.

“We take out 4300-4350 boxes of eggs for consumption every day. I also want to emphasize that today the price of all food products has been doubled, the price of eggs has increased by only 10 drams, so that the costs can be covered. They tried to bring eggs from outside, but it didn’t work. Nevertheless, we should avoid overproduction, producing, spoiling and wasting is a terrible thing,” emphasized Sergey Stepanyan.

It should be noted that in the evening before the Holy Resurrection, the Holy Liturgy of the Candlemas is served in the churches, with which the Easter celebrations begin. In the morning in the churches, a liturgy, a ceremony of Atonement is performed, and then a festive Liturgy is served. On the Feast of the Holy Resurrection, the believers greet each other with the message “Christ is risen from the dead” and the answer is “Blessed is the Resurrection of Christ”.

—

A public criminal prosecution was initiated against the 18-year-old twin brothers Davit and Mikael Minasyan in connection with the incident that took place in the Saint Anna Church.

In particular, Davit Minasyan a public criminal prosecution has been initiated against him under Article 297, Part 1 (hooliganism) and Article 452, Part 3 (interfering with the legal service or political activities of an official) of the Criminal Code, Mikael Minasyanwas charged under Article 46-297, Part 1 (supporting hooliganism) and Article 46-452, Part 3 (supporting interference with the legitimate official or political activities of an official).

At the time of writing the article, it was already known that one of the brothers, Mikayel Minasyan, was released, as a preventive measure, the ban on absence was chosen. And a petition was submitted to arrest the other brother, Davit Minasyan.

As for what kind of political activity Nikol Pashinyan, who entered the church with bodyguards in the middle of the Palm Sunday service, should have carried out in the church, let’s leave it to the experts, instead, let’s try to understand what could be the reason for this “revenge” against young people, 18-19 years old, especially when, for example, human rights activist Zhanna Aleksanyan urged Pashinyan to choose the following path, stating:

“Nikol Pashinyan, release the school boys. First of all, you caused inconvenience to the faithful and praying people with your late and unannounced visit to the liturgy, and for that it was worth apologizing to the people, as in the case of the subway incident. And again similar to the subway incident invite the boys to you and have a fatherly conversation with them, personally make sure if they really wanted to hit you or not. Maybe you will have an opportunity to give explanations and exclude the repetition of such incidents. unless, of course, you want to exclude it.”

Of course, there will be people who will say that you should respect the state institution, the head of the country, no matter what. Yes, and the head of that same country, regardless of his attitude towards His Holiness, did he respect him, does he respect him when he calls him Kutrich Nersisyan, does he respect the army as an important institution, of course not. Was it respect when the entrance of the Catholicos of All Armenians to the Sardarapat Memorial was blocked by a police wall? And is it respect for the church, the people, God, when the liturgy is “interrupted” by political or service activities? We have always been and are zealous to respect the state institution, for example, the official of the Minister of Defense the status, the position of the military and spiritual authorities, as well as the laws of the Republic of Armenia, the requirements of the constitution, which are so often belittled and disrespected by the country’s leadership and government representatives.

Anyway, let’s assume that the boys are guilty, couldn’t Nikol Pashinyan, who was in a panic, follow the advice of human rights activist Zhanna Aleksanyan, having the following lines of the Lord’s prayer “Our Father” under his eyes? “And forgive us our debts, as we forgive our debtors.”

Would Pashinyan wish that God would be as “fair” to his greatest and most serious sins as he is to these guys and his opponents?

First of all, it is necessary to understand what kind of political activity Pashinyan, accusing the church of interfering in political processes, tried to implement, which was hindered by 18-year-old boys. And Pashinyan should be more than “forgiving” towards boys aged 18-20, and in this case, try to find out the extent of his moral rights. But more on that later. And now, why does Pashinyan hate especially young people aged 18-20?

168.amin a conversation with Gegham Manukyan, deputy of the Armenia faction of the National Assembly, said:

“In 2018, Nikol Pashinyan made schoolchildren one of his supports, and the 18-year-olds who graduated from public school that year were in the service in 2020. And many of those mandatory soldiers or conscripts died. And these days it is already the third case when minors become the victims of censure of this government because of their attitude and behavior, and the petition for arrest and the special election of Mnatsakan Martirosyan as a judge to examine it shows that Pashinyan’s censure is at an end. Lawyer Ruben Melikyan revealed another scandalous case today, that’s just a boy They are trying to detain him on the charge of hooliganism for his position and opinion.”said the opposition MP.

In this context, let’s return to Pashinyan’s moral right to judge young people aged 18-20, when that young man is not a murderer, not a dangerous criminal, and has become a hero of the “political stampede” independently of his will. In the 44-day war, several thousand conscripts, including those who served for several months, died. And this despite the fact that in April 2022, Nikol Pashinyan announced in the National Assembly: “yes, the war could have been prevented and we would have had the same result, but without the casualties.” In other words, it was possible to prevent them from being killed, but they were killed, as Anna Hakobyan once said: “we lost 4000 davids” and the main reason was not what Hakobyan presented, but what Pashinyan admitted.

Soldiers aged 18-20 fought heroically during the 44-day war, as well as the aggression against Artsakh in September 2023, and deserters should be looked for elsewhere.

It should be noted that after Pashinyan’s above-mentioned confession, among the relatives of those killed in the 44-day war of 2020 were a requirement transfer at that time to the General Prosecutor Artur Davtyan, so that Nikol Pashinyan could be involved as an accused in the criminal case related to the 44-day period and summoned for questioning. According to various reports, he as a witness: was questioned During the 44-day war, a group of high-ranking Armenian officials committed a crime of abusing their official powers within the framework of the criminal proceedings.

Months ago, Pashinyan told journalists that in one case was interrogated for about 5 hours: “my actions have been investigated, can be investigated again and will continue to be investigated»:

Let us add that former Prosecutor General Artur Davtyan had noted որ՝ “At that time, there was no evidence to initiate criminal proceedings against Nikol Pashinyan.”

The other day, it became known that Pashinyan was charged with treason and deliberate victimization a report has been submitted. We think the result under the current government is quite predictable.

And Nikol Pashinyan is indebted to the 18-20 year olds and not only for saving his own son’s life in the 44-day war, who was not even injured (of course, we are happy, he is young). And in 2020 During the 44-day period, Pashinyan’s son, among the soldiers of the military unit formed during martial law died 21 people.

—

Differences between Turkey and Azerbaijan on the issue of Iran are changing the regional arrangements

US and Israeli aggression against Iran to the landscape The differences and contradictions between Ankara and Baku are becoming more and more obvious to international observers. It’s coming «the moment of truth», whose preparation has been going on for a long time.

Since the early 1990s, the two Turkic-speaking countries have declared a close alliance, but relations between the two countries have periodically deteriorated. For example, in 1995, Azerbaijan accused some Turkish citizens, allegedly linked to Turkish forces, of supporting a failed coup against then-President Heydar Aliyev.

In 2008, tensions resurfaced «football diplomacy» in the background, which was aimed at the regulation of Armenian-Turkish relations, in the conditions of the status quo, which did not satisfy Baku in Nagorno-Karabakh. The contacts came up again when Erdogan emphasized Turkey’s role in Azerbaijan’s victory in the 2020 “44-Day War” in several speeches. In Baku, they quite categorically rejected the Turkish hypothesis about Ankara’s decisive role in the war. However, from the beginning of March 2026, the conflict developing from below is qualitatively more serious.

The Turkish side, in contrast to the Azerbaijani side, is doing everything to end the conflict as soon as possible. Thus, according to the Bloomberg agency, Ankara is putting pressure on the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf so that they publicly and officially refuse to participate in aggression against Iran. of course The tensions between Ankara and Baku reflect a deeper mismatch in the views of Turkish allies on regional threats and processes, especially with regard to Israel and Iran.։ Some Baku experts they thinkCurrent trends may weaken the close ties between Azerbaijan and Turkey, creating an opportunity for Russia to strengthen its influence in the South Caucasus.

To remind, after the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei on March 4, 2026, Aliyev visited the Iranian embassy in Baku to express his condolences. For a number of reasons, he seems to have sought to avoid participating in the conflict. But literally the next day, Iran allegedly carried out a drone attack on the capital of Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan autonomy, injuring several people. In response, Aliyev made a speech in which he sharply accused Iran, which caused a strong negative reaction in the Turkish mass media. Deputies of the Milli Mejlis loyal to Aliyev accused media outlets linked to Erdogan’s entourage of organizing a media campaign against Aliyev’s administration.

Turkish media criticism has ranged from emphasizing Baku’s close ties with Israel to pointing to the entrenched authoritarian nature of the government in Azerbaijan, an issue long ignored by Turkish authorities. Iranian reaction has been mixed, partly due to the extreme situation, including the deaths of many of the country’s leaders, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in bombings and terrorist attacks. Officials, including Iran’s president, have denied any involvement in the incident, while some pro-government commentators have called the strike targeted at its northern neighbor. Iran’s warning.

In turn, both the government in Baku and opposition figures used the drone attack to rekindle irredentist rhetoric against Iran’s northern territories. An analysis of sources closely intertwined with the structures of the IRGC, as well as the materials of a number of authoritative news agencies, indicates that Iran officially denies its participation in a number of drone attacks, including on the facilities of the UAE and Bahrain. Moreover, the technical identity of drones of different origin creates ideal conditions for all kinds of manipulations. Because the US ATSs, which are actively involved in the aggression imposed on Iran, are visually almost indistinguishable from the Iranian “Martyrs”, which is purposefully used in information warfare.

It is important to note that both Israel and Turkey supported Azerbaijan in the last Karabakh war։ Although the Turkish participation was more direct and decisive. Erdogan stood by Aliyev’s side in the victory parade, and Turkish military advisers played a key role in Azerbaijan’s success. Baku’s deep and multifaceted ties to the Netanyahu government, largely hidden from public and pundit eyes, remain almost decisive in determining all of Baku’s international policies.

Bilateral contacts, which began in the early 1990s, are based on a long-standing strategic partnership, the key elements of which are such directions as energy, defense, and intelligence. Suffice it to say: Azerbaijan is one of Israel’s key energy suppliers, providing a significant portion of its oil imports, while the Jewish state plays a central role in modernizing the Azerbaijani military, particularly through drone technology and advanced weapons systems.

Azerbaijan’s geographical proximity to Iran also makes it strategically important for Israel in terms of intelligence and regional positioning. Along with major Western economic players such as BP, Israeli chains are among the most important international supporters of the Aliyev administration.

This support is particularly important given the authoritarian image and vulnerability of the Azerbaijani government on the world stage. The multilateral partnership that is being talked about explains why ties with Israel are not only tactical in nature, but form the structural basis of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy.

In the current situation, Turkish pro-government media outlets express dissatisfaction more often, expecting Baku to show the priority of relations with Turkey over relations with Israel. As a result, there is not only a short-term divergence, but also a deeper structural tension within the long-term balancing strategy. While Turkey provides regional security, Israel provides international influence and strategic maneuver. However, the current crisis proves that it is increasingly difficult for Baku to maintain that balance.

The deepening of disagreements between Ankara and Baku may affect the regional balances in the Caucasus. As the US seeks to reduce its involvement in the Ukraine conflict, Russia may gradually shift its focus to the region. Although the US remains an important global player, its direct role in the South Caucasus may be limited.

Previous crises, such as the 2008 war over South Ossetia and the 2020 Karabakh war, show that Washington has shown little desire to directly intervene in regional conflicts, preferring indirect influence through partners. In this context, the weakening of the role of Turkey is not necessarily compensated by the strengthening of the participation of the USA. Despite the White House’s growing interest in the region and the much-touted “Trump Road,” the relationship remains fragile and largely conditional. Although Washington is interested in strengthening its presence in Central Asia, its willingness to act decisively in the South Caucasus remains uncertain.

Until recently, Aliyev maintained relatively constructive relations with Russia and sometimes used them as a counterbalance to Turkey, for example through close personal ties with Putin. As before, Turkey was afraid of a possible rapprochement with Moscow, its Caspian ally։ However, the situation has changed significantly. Recently, Azerbaijan has adopted a much more critical position towards Russia, in the context of protracted military operations in Ukraine, which avoids the further escalation of the conflict with Baku. On March 27, Russia’s Putin took part in the opening ceremony of the Azerbaijani State Music-Drama Theater after its reconstruction in Derbent. In April, another meeting of the Russian-Azerbaijani intergovernmental commission on economic cooperation will take place in Baku. Ambassador of Azerbaijan in Moscow Rahman Mustafayev talks about the active process of normalization and intensive restoration of relations, positive dynamics in all spheres, which are meant to smooth out the complications and misunderstandings of recent times.

International relations develop in an unpredictable manner. We live in extremely turbulent times when strategic calculations are being reviewed and reorganized. In such an environment, even improbable scenarios deserve serious consideration. The current tension between Ankara and Baku, if it escalates, may therefore signal not just a temporary rift, but a deeper strategic shift that could change the balance of power in the South Caucasus.

YURI MAVASHEV

fondsk.ru

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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Arman Tatoyan, head of the “Wings of Unity” political initiative, writes: “Two 18-year-old schoolchildren are demanding respect from those who did not show respect for dozens of believers in the church at the most precious moment for them. The self-proclaimed believer broke through the ranks of people in the middle of the liturgy, pushing people, with his bodyguard and escort, forgetting that a humble believer does not behave like that in the church.

The third, a person unknown to them, did not show “respect” in another place, in another time to the means of transport by which the government transports its teammates.

Different people with different episodes are now accused in criminal proceedings.
The charges carry a prison sentence. Now the issue of a restraining order for one of them is being examined. requested arrest.
This is exactly how law is turned into a tool, both through open pressure and legal techniques.

Several episodes are taken, every effort is made to combine them into one case, an article providing for severe punishment [imprisonment] is applied, and the impulse is transmitted to all the others.

I have been professionally engaged in the protection of human rights for many years. I know the difference between criminal prosecution and criminal intimidation. This is specific criminal intimidation.
The state, which applies the law in this way at the instigation of the government, confirms one thing. is afraid.

He is afraid of the young people in the church. He is afraid of the questions addressed to him. He is afraid of those citizens who do not show formal respect.

We need a different logic.
not a government that is protected by law, but a law that protects the citizen. Including from the government itself.”

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