A:some American think tanks think that The Trump administration has many wrong made assumptions that led to the devastating consequences of this conflict with Iran. Perhaps the most ironic of these is that the occupant of the Oval Office appears to have downplayed or denied altogether the possibility that the Iranians would close the Strait of Hormuz in the event of a war with Iran.: This is not just a reservation, but rather an abuse of foreign policy, a truly inexplicable omission that was discussed at the March 18 House Global Threats hearing.

The conflict between the US and Iran has been the focus of countless war games and military exercises for decades. Frequent simulations conducted by think tanks, military colleges, and intelligence services provide important insight into adversary behavior and allow for the summation of accumulated experience and best practices, as well as the development of many possible scenarios that can be used in US military planning. so the likelihood that Iran would stick to a strategy of exhausting its adversary through economic warfare was abundantly clear and openly debated by scholars, analysts, and military strategists.

In addition to faulty assumptions, Washington’s strategic communications hindered the conduct of the military campaign: Almost two weeks ago, Trump announced. “I think the war is almost over,” insisting it would be “mostly over in two or three days.” But the war is dragging on, and now the Pentagon is asking for an additional $200 billion to fund the military campaign. There is more and more talk of a ground operation, which is fraught with drawing the aggressor into the Middle East “quagmire”.: Given that the Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) is on its way to the Persian Gulf from Asia, and more than 50,000 troops are already in the region, the conflict is likely to escalate rather than be resolved anytime soon. It is obvious that the Netanyahu regime intends to further escalate the conflict, as evidenced by the attack on the Iranian energy infrastructure in the South Pars gas field., which provoked Iran’s retaliatory actions in a number of energy facilities in the region, including targeting the Ras Laffan gas refinery in Qatar, multiple facilities in Saudi Arabia, and the Haifa oil refinery, which was hit by a ballistic missile. According to the statement of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, on March 27, the United States and Israel struck the uranium concentrate production plant in the city of Erdekan, Yazd province.

The US and Israel clearly underestimated Iran’s tenacity and possibly its own missile defense capabilities.: According to Bloomberg, the US has lost at least 16 aircraft and drones to date, including at least ten Reaper drones. According to CNN, the 5th generation F-35 stealth fighter, whose production cost is 80-100 million dollars, was forced to land at a base in the region after it was allegedly hit by an Iranian missile. American bases in the region have been repeatedly shelled and embassies have been forced to evacuate.

The showman of the White House makes one appeal to NATO allies for help, one criticizes them, calling them useless and ungrateful. Unsurprisingly, in such a chaotic environment, he was unable to gain the support of allies to achieve key US goals, such as opening the Strait of Hormuz. There have been other attempts that look unprofessional. For example, the Wall Street Journal reports that just then, with the outbreak of war against Iran, the US Navy decommissioned 4 specialized ships for mine clearance. Another stunning blow to the State Department’s structure was the reduction in staff and resources of the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs.։ Clearly unaware of regional realities, the Trump administration even abolished the special Iran department and merged it with the Iraq department.

Aside from the administration’s ill-advised assumptions, a list of obvious and unintended consequences of this war, including attacks on the Persian Gulf and the risk of a spike in oil prices, is obvious to any more or less literate professional. In addition, the Trump administration appears to believe that the war could end quickly. Perhaps Operation Delta to capture Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro and his wife has led Trump to a fundamentally wrong conclusion about the success of such an adventure in other regions of the world. Iran is a country with a completely different history, geography, demographics and culture. The top leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was formed during the bloody 1980-1988 war with Iraq, which ostensibly united Iranian society against an external enemy.

Despite heavy losses, Iran has so far managed to avoid regime overthrow and systematic destruction of key targets, missile depots and other critical command-and-control hubs by the US and Israel.: Tehran admits that it cannot win a conventional military conflict against the US and Israel, but asymmetric tactics, “mosaic defense” and readiness for decisive action are greatly changing the picture of the battlefield. Cheap Iranian drones are knocking out the expensive batteries of THAAD and Patriot anti-missile systems. Despite the overwhelming firepower of the aggressors, the Iranians have begun to use cluster munitions and mobile launchers more actively.

American bases guarantee the protection of member states of the Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Persian Gulf. Ironically, the very deal the Gulf monarchies struck to protect themselves from Iran makes them a target for its missiles and drones. As a result of this war, which affected the entire region, the relationship between the US and the Persian Gulf countries could change radically, and obviously not for the better.:

“The goals the president has identified are different from the goals of the Israeli government,” Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard said during a recent House hearing. During the meeting with the Prime Minister of Japan, Trump said: “I told Netanyahu not to attack oil and gas facilities anymore. We operate independently and have a great relationship. We agree on everything, but sometimes he does something that I don’t like, and then… That’s why we don’t do it anymore.” The Trump administration’s inability to explain how the Iran war will end is another troubling storyline. Israel clearly seeks the total overthrow of the regime, but a more likely scenario is the weakening but not the complete destruction of the IRGC, which will have the money and weapons to continue the fight.: It is possible that certain regions of the country, especially where ethnic armed groups may become active, may go beyond the control of the authorities. A protracted crisis could turn into an all-out war that could spill over and destabilize the situation in neighboring countries.

According to American intelligence reports in the press, the Iranian regime is likely to survive this conflict. Furthermore, he may be trying to develop a nuclear bomb at an accelerated pace, seeing it as the only viable defense against future attacks. If this happens, it will inevitably lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

How long the hostilities will last is unclear, but judging by requests for additional funding and additional troop deployments, Washington is planning a protracted campaign.

ALEXANDER GREGORY:V:

Translation by Zhanna Avetisyan

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Ruben Mkhitaryan writes on his Facebook page. “From the beginning, 18-year-olds fell at the feet and begged to close the street.

Then he started a war and killed 18-year-olds in order not to burn his hands.

Then he invented selective graves of the dead 18-year-olds and divided their parents into Iranians and Iranians.

Now 18-year-olds are taken to court in handcuffs.

Tomorrow it will be forbidden to live until the age of 18.

This is it. Until June 7, you will get to know him very closely.”

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On March 28, the French “Legion of Honor” against the Turkish “Golden Eagle”. Pashinyan’s “lovely letter” with the caption, “A blow to Papikyan?” article: published, where we also referred to the following Facebook post of Nikol Pashinyan from the series of “lovely letters”.
“Such a lovely letter.

Hello Mr. Prime Minister, please consider your request to grant me another rank (major general). My title is colonel.

Thank you in advance.”

We mentioned in our article that the authenticity of the letter has yet to be determined, and in any case, we presented the procedure for awarding military ranks. At the same time, under Pashinyan’s corresponding post, we proposed to make public the letter and the identity of its writer. We publicly addressed the RA Defense Minister with the same issue.

By the way, we are very well aware of the confidentiality of personal data, we have respected it and we will continue in the same way, but in this case we are already dealing with the fact of discrediting a state institution or the army itself, circumventing the powers of a state body, which was allegedly allowed by the same colonel and which was made public by Nikol Pashinyan. And this regardless of whether the letter is genuine or not.

Anyway, in addition to leaving a comment-suggestion under the post, we tried to find out from Nikol Pashinyan’s spokesperson Nazeli Baghdasaryan which power structure the author of the letter is from, without asking for identity information.

“I spoke with the Prime Minister, he said that he cannot convey anything more than what was published, because we do not have the consent of the letter writer to mention the entire sector.” in response to our question, Baghdasaryan mentioned, although we did not ask for any information about the identity of the writer, and all we had to say was, in which structure does the author of the letter serve, after all, was the letter made public with a request for the title of general? What is the result, did Nikol Pashinyan get the consent of the writer to write about such a “lovely letter” albeit anonymously, attacking the authority of this or that power structure and its leader, or does such a letter not exist at all?

And if we accept that such a letter exists, then who knows, maybe Nikol Pashinyan will decide to make the request of the colonel in the letter a reality on May 28, the Day of the First Republic of Armenia, that is, days before the National Assembly elections?

And we also appealed to the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Armenia for clarification.

“The Ministry of Defense does not have any information about the said question.” said Suren Papikyan’s spokesperson Aram Torosyan in a conversation with us.

And we will always pursue such “small” episodes, after all, the current authorities of RA told us to make inquiries from them in such cases…

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pilot, commander, specialist in international aviation regulations Hakob Chagharyann: presented proposals about geopolitical possibilities in the conditions of war over Iran.

Aviation, Logistics, and Geopolitical Opportunities in a War on Iran

The US-Israel-Iran conflict is no longer just a military conflict. It has turned into a process of realignment of the global economic and logistics system. Today, not only the fate of the region is decided, but also the future of energy channels, trade corridors and global transportation.

Under these conditions, small but strategically located countries like Armenia face a choice: either to become a victim of a big game, or to turn into important hubs with smart positioning.

1. Energy and logistics crisis center

The core of the conflict is in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy “airways”.

Even a partial disruption of the strait causes a chain reaction. oil and gas prices are rising, insurance risks are skyrocketing, and shipping is becoming more expensive and volatile.

Under these conditions, the global economy is forced to quickly look for alternative ways. Historical experience shows that such crises always lead to the formation of new logistics centers.

2. Global trade realignment

The instability of the Persian Gulf and Red Sea routes is already changing the logic of international trade. Freight forwarders are beginning to prefer the safest routes rather than the shortest ones: longer routes, multimodal solutions and the growth of air transportation. Against this background, Europe faces a clear question: how to ensure stable imports with minimal risk?

3. The growing importance of the South Caucasus

In the newly formed reality, the South Caucasus gets a new strategic role.

The region at the same time:

• outside the immediate war zone
• has a connection to the Black Sea
• is a bridge between the Middle East and Europe

This creates a unique opportunity to form new trade corridors.

4. Reassessment of the Black Sea-Danube route

The Danube River, a more than 2,400 km navigable waterway stretching from Ukraine to Germany and connecting to the North Sea via the Danube-Main-Rhine Canal, is once again becoming a key artery for Europe’s inland freight transport.

Black Sea Ports:

• Burgas
• Varna
• Constance

and Danube Junctions:

• Russia
• Galats

can become centers of new cargo flows.

This whole system, in fact, turns into a safe corridor within Europe that can replace high-risk sea routes.

5. Armenia’s possible role as an intermediate hub

At first glance, Armenia, having no access to the sea, can be seen as a country with limited opportunities. However, in the current conditions, this very limitation can turn into an advantage.

With a properly built logistics system, Armenia can act as:

• intermediate point for express freight
• intersection of air and ground transportation
• regional distribution center

6. The crucial role of aviation

During wars and crises, aviation becomes not just a means of transportation, but a strategic tool.

Air freight provides speed, flexibility and relative independence from regional barriers.

For Armenia, this means one thing: the development of aviation can become an accelerated mechanism of economic growth.

With the creation of a competitive aviation system, Armenia can:

• connect the Middle East with Europe
• handle high value cargo
• provide fast logistics solutions in crisis situations

7. Multimodal system design

The most promising approach is to create a multimodal system that combines:

• air transportation
• land connections
• Black sea ports
• River channels of the Danube

Such a system can become a real alternative to traditional sea routes and ensure stable and safe trade flows.

8. Risks and Real Choices

Of course, the expansion of the war can affect the South Caucasus as well. However, inaction and maintaining the status of an observer is a greater risk than taking an active position.

Newly formed corridors will inevitably be of interest to global actors. The question is one: will Armenia be able to be involved in these processes as a partner, or will it remain outside of them?

9. What to do in Armenia

Seeing this opportunity is not enough. Quick and coordinated action is needed.

Armenia must:

• develop its aviation capabilities
• build freight infrastructures
• be integrated into the Black Sea-Danube route

and act as a reliable partner in international logistics chains.

Only in this case, the country will be able to leave the status of an observer and become an active participant in the game.

In conclusion

Global crises always create new opportunities for those who are able to quickly orient themselves and act. Today, new ways, new rules and new centers are being formed. Armenia can be one of them. But only on one condition: if he acts now.

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One of the 5 feasts of the Armenian Apostolic Holy Church, the Feast of the Miraculous Resurrection of Jesus Christ, is celebrated this year on April 5.

In Armenia, usually before Easter, there is inflation in the egg market, will there be inflation this year as well, what is the general situation in the egg market?

Sergey Stepanyan, chairman of the Union of Poultry Breeders of Armenia In other words, compared to the same period of the previous year, this year there is a very small shortage of local producers, but they fully meet the demand of the day.

“In the summer, in the months of July-June, there were serious losses, that is, there was overproduction, and the price of eggs dropped to 25 drams, that is, half of the cost price. Those producers that were not large, the small ones left the market, they could not buy daily feed. Naturally, they came out and the number of people was reduced. In the past period, we were able to restore the head count, our colleagues in a number of republics were wondering how we managed. We are confident that we will meet the demand of the market.

If you have paid attention, eggs are the only food that had a price increase only in February, and that was forced, because feed, electricity and gas went up in price at once. This affected the cost of eggs, which led to an increase in the price.” 168.amSergey Stepanyan said in a conversation with

According to him, the State Competition Commission and the Ministry are aware of all this. The increase in the price of eggs was generally 8-10 drams. Today, eggs are accepted in all large chains for AMD 70, and sometimes for AMD 68.

“There are organizations that buy eggs from factories as intermediaries and sell them to stores at a higher price, i.e. 85-90 drams, the price of eggs in fruit and vegetable stalls has reached 95 drams. In other words, we are governed by the price of networks, today’s situation is calm, all organizations have managed to reach their previous year’s security index. At the beginning of April, we will see that there is full supply, and the demand is not so high,” Sergey Stepanyan added.

According to our interlocutor, sometimes people enter large stores, buy 2-3 puffed eggs, then take them away and sell them at a higher price in a fruit and vegetable store. 1 puffed egg is enough for the biggest family, so there is no need to buy more than 2 puffed eggs.

“We take out 4300-4350 boxes of eggs for consumption every day. I also want to emphasize that today the price of all food products has been doubled, the price of eggs has increased by only 10 drams, so that the costs can be covered. They tried to bring eggs from outside, but it didn’t work. Nevertheless, we should avoid overproduction, producing, spoiling and wasting is a terrible thing,” emphasized Sergey Stepanyan.

It should be noted that in the evening before the Holy Resurrection, the Holy Liturgy of the Candlemas is served in the churches, with which the Easter celebrations begin. In the morning in the churches, a liturgy, a ceremony of Atonement is performed, and then a festive Liturgy is served. On the Feast of the Holy Resurrection, the believers greet each other with the message “Christ is risen from the dead” and the answer is “Blessed is the Resurrection of Christ”.

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