Category: News

Strengthening connectivity, resilience and sustainable development in Armenia’s south

On 29-30 October, UN Assistant Secretary General, UNDP Assistant Administrator, Director of the Regional Bureau for Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (RBEC) Ivana Živković, accompanied by UNDP Resident Representative in Armenia Natia Natsvlishvili, visited selected initiatives supported by UNDP and its partners in Syunik region, to observe on the ground how partnerships are translating development priorities into practical solutions at the local level.

In the Meghri Border Crossing Point, the UNDP Assistant Administrator, accompanied by Syunik Governor Robert Ghukasyan, observed progress in the modernization of one of Armenia’s most strategic gateways for regional trade and transport. The European Union (EU) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) funded project is transforming border infrastructure through the construction of modern administrative facilities, cargo inspection systems, border control infrastructure and upgraded engineering networks. The modernization of Meghri BCP will help improve cross-border mobility, enhance cargo and passenger processing, strengthen Armenia’s connectivity with regional markets, and create new opportunities for economic growth and resilience in Syunik.

During her visit to Goris, Ms. Ivana Živković, together with head of Goris community Arush Arushanyan, reviewed progress on an innovative social housing initiative. UNDP is implementing the project in cooperation with the Ministry of Labor and Welfare of Armenia and Goris Municipality under the EU-funded “Building a Resilient Social Protection System in Armenia” project, jointly implemented with UNICEF and the WFP. The pilot combines comprehensive improvements to a residential building housing approximately 75 residents with the construction of 8 new social housing apartments on its rooftop. The initiative expands access to social housing while enhancing the building’s seismic safety and energy efficiency. The visit highlighted how the EU and UNDP are joining efforts to strengthen Armenia’s social protection system by bringing together institutional reform, digital innovation and municipal initiatives to deliver practical, people-centered solutions. 

In Goris, UNDP Assistant Administrator also visited kindergarten No. 2, where a hybrid solar energy system is installed through the EU-funded EU4Dialogue programme to ensure uninterrupted access to essential public services. The solar photovoltaic system, battery storage and hybrid inverter reduce energy costs while providing backup power during outages, contributing to a safer and more resilient learning environment for children and staff. UNDP-implemented EU4Dialogue initiative is supporting conflict-affected and border communities through renewable energy, improved infrastructure, livelihoods and social cohesion, helping communities build resilience and invest in a more sustainable future.

The final stop of Ms. Ivana Živković was Areni Municipality, where she explored how the EU-funded Mayors for Economic Growth (M4EG) initiative has helped communities move beyond individual interventions toward a new way of addressing complex local development challenges. Between 2021 and 2025, Areni worked with UNDP to build the skills, tools and ownership needed to understand local challenges, engage communities, test solutions, learn from experience and adapt along the way. This journey led to a shared vision of creating a Sustainable Tourism Space that connects the municipality’s wine, cultural, culinary, natural and historical assets across all nine settlements.

By Julian McBride

Key Takeaways:

• After Russia’s inaction in the 2020–23 Karabakh conflicts, Pashinyan froze CSTO participation in 2024 and began diversifying defense imports toward India and France while deepening U.S. ties.
• In 2024–25 Armenia advanced EU accession legislation, prompting Russian import bans and hostile rhetoric.
• The absence of active territorial disputes and ongoing reforms are cited as advantages over other candidates, though elections and residual Russian influence remain risks.

Armenia, after decades of Russian influence, has made strides in democratic reforms and branching out to alternative partners in trade, technology, and defense. Over the past several years, Armenia’s ruling government, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, has expressed interest in future European Union membership.

Yerevan’s potential accension will face hurdles; as it has been under Moscow’s influence for decades, reforming full democratic control remains paramount to the country’s future. Amid the diversification process, Armenia continues to transform into a solidified Western partner with key agreements with the U.S. and stronger ties with Europe.

Initial Russian-Economic Bloc and Breakdown in Relations

Against the backdrop of the dissolution of the USSR, Armenia gained its independence from the Soviet Union, albeit in a weakened and precarious state. Armenia’s democratic institutions were initially flawed, with a lack of structural safeguards, which would be seen up until the Velvet Revolution.

Immediately after independence, Armenia would fight a major war with Azerbaijan over the Karabakh region, which also desired autonomy and self-determination. The Karabakh region, historically with an Armenian majority and Armenian architecture, was transferred to the then Azerbaijani SSR by Josef Stalin, who wished to ignite ethnic tensions and quell nationalism within the USSR.

The First Karabakh war ended in an Armenian military victory. Still, a Russian-mediated ceasefire left the dispute unresolved—particularly due to Azerbaijani refugees and the status of the breakaway state of Artsakh, which was supported but not annexed by Armenia. Moscow would be Yerevan’s closest ally at the time, allowing Armenia to join the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), but this allyship would be tested amid the Velvet Revolution.

During the Velvet Revolution, Armenians removed the pro-Russian bloc that was close to longtime autocrat Vladimir Putin, which the Kremlin took as a spiteful act akin to Euromaidan in Ukraine and the Georgian protests. When Azerbaijan initiated the Second Karabakh war in 2020, Russia did not respond to Armenia’s request for assistance, and the resulting armed conflict saw Baku recapture much of the region from the Armenian army and Artsakh militias.

Russia would gain a foothold in the South Caucasus in 2020 it previously had lost thirty years ago from the collapse of the USSR via a peacekeeping contingent in the Karabakh region as over 120,000 Armenians remained under threat. However, this peacekeeping mission would prove hollow and set the stage for a major split between Yerevan and Moscow.

Armenia’s Western Pivot and EU Aspirations

In mid-September 2022, Azerbaijan would initiate large-scale artillery fire against Armenia proper. Several hundred troops on both sides would be killed in less than three days, with the United States mediating a ceasefire.

Despite a CSTO member in Armenia being attacked in its non-disputed territory, no member of the alliance took action to defend Yerevan, Russia included. Due to the inaction, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan openly criticized the CSTO and slowly started a process of disengaging Yerevan from the mutual defense organization.

In February 2024, Pashinyan froze Armenia’s participation in CSTO a year after Azerbaijan launched one more major military operation in Karabakh in 2023 that saw the expulsion of over 100,000 Armenians and cultural desecration of ancient Armenian artifacts. Pashinyan would later state intentions to eventually leave CSTO as Armenia would branch out its dependency away from Russia.

Armenia is diversifying its defense imports away from Russia, increasing procurements from countries such as India and France. Starting with the outgoing Biden administration, Armenia was also upgraded towards a strategic comprehensive partnership with the United States, which continued to expand during Yerevan’s Western pivot.

Armenia’s Potential EU Ascension

On September 9th, 2024, Nikol Pashinyan acknowledged that starting Yerevan’s process towards European Union (EU) accension was a key policy of his government. Several months later, on March 26th, 2025, the Armenian parliament put forth a legislature called the EU Integration Act for future membership aspirations.

For the past year, Yerevan’s government has been engaging in domestic and democratic reforms to make the looming EU accession process smoother.  For instance, Pashinyan’s government will expect opposition towards a Western pivot, as some of the opposing blocs maintain good ties with Russia, which could enact information and hybrid warfare against Armenia when its process begins.

Russia has already reacted to Armenia’s EU aspirations with ire by lobbying against Yerevan’s current Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) membership. In a form of sanctions and economic coercion, the Kremlin enacted bans on Armenian imports, with media figures and Duma members exacerbating rhetoric similar to that against Ukraine after Euromaidan. Despite the economic coercion, Armenia is unlikely to abandon EU aspirations, as over-reliance on Russia led to the country’s isolation from better-performing Western markets at a time when Yerevan needed outside support the most between 2020 and 2023.

Why Yerevan’s Prospects Could be Less Turbulent than Other Prospects

During Armenia’s preparations for EU accession, there are a handful of countries that are either in the process of negotiations or are in an indefinite standstill due to various reasons that involve other members of the European Union.Currently, Albania, Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Bosnia and Herzegovina are in the candidacy phase. However, only a handful of these countries will likely receive future membership in the next several years.

Montenegro is likely the next member of the European Union, as Podgorica has checked off everything it needs for future membership. Georgia and Moldova are currently suffering from pro-Russian movements and political crises which are amplified by the Kremlin’s informational warfare strategy. Ukraine, currently engaged in Europe’s largest war faces upheavals due to the ongoing conflict with Russia’s invasion.

Albania and Serbia are both dealing with political turmoil stemming from corruption that brings frequent protests to both countries, and North Macedonia is only four years into negotiations. Both Turkey and Bosnia and Herzegovina are embroiled in delicate situations that could have wider implications.

Turkey currently has a five-decade military occupation over the northern regions of Cyprus, and Nicosia is an EU member. Alongside Greece, which is a mutual treaty ally of Nicosia, Ankara’s EU aspirations are likely to remain in purgatory until a full resolution of Cyprus’ frozen conflict is mended. 

Bosnia and Herzegovina faces a renewed separatist movement from one of its internal entities, the Republika Srpska (RS). The RS has stepped up lobbying efforts with U.S. officials in the Trump administration to lobby towards independence, which not only threatens Bosnia and Herzegovina’s EU accession, but also the Dayton Accords that could bring various factions back into ethnic armed conflicts that still scar the Balkans to this day.

Armenia currently has no open conflicts or disputes, particularly as Pashinyan offered territorial proposals of acknowledgement and land swaps to Azerbaijan. Yerevan is continuing to implement democratic reforms and is increasingly leaving Russian-led blocs, which means EU integration will be smoother. Still, Yerevan cannot remain complacent, as by the time the country is formally in negotiations, future elections will take place, and the pro-Western Civil Contract party could face future challenges to the EU aspirations. 

Overall, Armenia’s trajectory from an obscure country surrounded by enemies and heavy Russian influence is now brighter, with a freer market democracy that can branch out to various countries for technology, economic trade, and defense instead of solely relying on the Kremlin. European Union membership aspirations can help Yerevan not only grow but also bring needed investments to the South Caucasus.