Category: News

Iran seeking pact with Baku against US attack – Azeri daily
Ayna, Baku
22 Dec 04
Iran seeks to ensure Azerbaijan’s neutral stance in the event of a
US invasion, the Azerbaijani daily Ayna has quoted military sources
as saying. In return, Azerbaijan may receive credits, grants and
support in the settlement of the Nagornyy Karabakh conflict, the paper
said. Commenting on the report, a military expert pointed out that
a deal with Iran will be of no benefit to Azerbaijan as the USA will
respond to Iran’s rapprochement with Azerbaijan and the country may
be cornered in the international arena. The following is an excerpt
from Sumarinli’s report by Azerbaijani newspaper Ayna on 22 December
headlined “Iran lures Azerbaijan into a secret military pact” and
subheaded “In return for some ‘services’, the Persian regime wants
Baku to take a neutral stance in America’s ‘Iran agenda'”. Subheadings
have been inserted editorially:
A “turn” in Iran’s policy
Iranian Defence Minister Adm Ali Shamkhani is paying a two-day visit
to Azerbaijan, a spokesman for the [Azerbaijani] Defence Ministry,
Capt Ilqar Verdiyev, has told Ayna newspaper.
Shamkhani is scheduled to have the following meetings during the
visit: with Defence Minister Safar Abiyev, with Foreign Minister
Elmar Mammadyarov and with President Ilham Aliyev. No documents are
expected to be signed during the visit, Verdiyev said.
This is the first visit of Shamkhani to Azerbaijan. So far, his
name has figured only in controversial statements aired against
Azerbaijan. He has threatened to carry out strikes on border
territories if there is any threat to Iran, and he has demanded that
Azerbaijan should not provide the military forces of a third country
with access to its territory or to the Caspian (Turan news agency).
Such a turn in the Tehran government’s policy can be explained by
Iran’s serious concerns about prospective US military pressure on the
mullah regime and by its attempts to prevent Azerbaijan’s participation
in the operation. To recap, Iranian Minister of Information
[Intelligence] Ali Yunesi visited Baku on 19 December. However,
Verdiyev said that he disagrees with such reports.
Mooted Iran-Azerbaijan agreements
During his meeting with Abiyev, Shamkhani will discuss a range of
“significant” military and political topics, Ayna has found out
from military sources. Some sources said that several agreements
may be signed during the meeting. Abiyev recently expressed his
concern that military cooperation between Iran and Azerbaijan is not
at the necessary level. During a meeting with the outgoing Iranian
ambassador to Azerbaijan, Ahad Qaza’i, Abiyev said he was dissatisfied
with the level of bilateral military cooperation. Abiyev said then
that Azerbaijan expects more from Iran in the resolution of the
Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.
When we consider all this, it becomes clear that Shamkhani’s visit
is not a “factfinding” one. Experts reckon that during the visit,
Iran will try to reach an agreement with the Azerbaijani leadership on
some issues. Certainly, they will clear up some issues regarding the
possibility of Azerbaijan’s participation in a US plan to attack Iran.
What can be promised to Baku in exchange for a neutral stance? Experts
believe that Tehran is ready to offer Azerbaijan cheap credits,
financial assistance grants and so on.
The most important aspect concerns the resolution of the Karabakh
conflict. Iran will announce at international organizations that
it completely supports the Baku government’s position on settling
the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, and will restrict its economic,
military and political cooperation with Armenia. In return for these
“services”, Azerbaijan will take a neutral stance on the US plan to
attack Iran. However, will the West, especially the USA, accept such
an accord? The probable course of events is likely to become clear
in the coming months.
In addition to this, Shamkhani’s visit may serve to reinforce
Iran-Azerbaijan military cooperation. Verdiyev shares this view and
does not rule out that Abiyev may visit Iran in the future.
Expert says no benefits for Azerbaijan
“Shamkhani’s visit to Baku was unexpected. By sending its officials
one by one to Azerbaijan, Tehran is presenting Baku with a fait
accompli in the run-up to a US military attack against Iran,” Lt-Col
(retd) Uzeyir Cafarov has told Ayna in an interview. In his opinion,
Baku will come to feel the pain of such relations.
“Granted, Iran is our neighbour. But it is Armenia’s strategic
ally. Let me remind you that during the first Armenian-Azerbaijani
war Armenian servicemen adjusted their artillery from Iran,” Cafarov
said. In Cafarov’s view, the USA is bound to respond to Tehran’s
policy of getting closer with Baku. “The consequences will surface
later. Azerbaijan may be cornered in the international arena,” he said.
Since the South Caucasus is an extremely sensitive region, Azerbaijan’s
foreign policy must be balanced. “One could better see a balanced
policy under [the late president] Heydar Aliyev. However, now this
policy has been ruined,” Cafarov said. No military or political
agreement with Iran will benefit Azerbaijan, he said.
[Passage omitted: Iran’s reaction to statements by American officials]

Armenia among countries mostly violating human rights
Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan
Dec 22 2004
Armenia is among the countries mostly violating human rights, the
US Freedom House human rights organisation said in its annual report
last week.
According to analysts of the organisation, although Ukraine and Georgia
have achieved progress in defence of human rights, the situation in
this field has become worse in Belarus and Lithuania. According to
the report, citizens in Russia cannot properly enjoy their rights to
freedom, as the power has been monopolized, independent press is put
pressures on and executive authorities have been involved in political
affairs in the country.
The organization’s analysts believe that the existence of such cases
may lead to authoritarianism in Russia.*

Hadra: Turkey Should Continue Relations With Arab Countries
Anadolu Agency
Dec 22 2004
MERSIN (AA) – Turkish-Arab Businessmen Association Chairman Mehmet
Hadra said on Saturday that Turkey, who got a date from the European
Union (EU) to start full membership negotiations, should continue
relations with Arab countries.
Hadra told a press conference that the target of their association
was to improve trade as well as cultural and art relations between
Turkey and Arab countries.
Meanwhile, commenting on Turkey’s getting a date from the EU
for membership negotiations, former Parliament Speaker Husamettin
Cindoruk said, “yesterday’s result is neither a success nor failure.
Getting October 3rd, 2005 is an acquisition.”
Addressing a seminar, Cindoruk said, “the EU neither accepts us nor let
us go. EU will make a decision according to the performance of Turkey.”
Cindoruk said there were two difficulties in agreement reached with
the EU. “One in negotiations’ being ‘open-ended’ and the second is
the Cyprus issue.”
Cindoruk defended that Turkey could not start negotiations if Ankara
Protocol is not signed till October 3rd, 2005.
Sinan Aygun, the Chairman of Ankara Chamber of Commerce (ATO), said
when the newspaper headlines were considered, this was seen as a
success, but that it was not definite what would be brought in front
of Turkey till October 3rd, 2005.
Defending the word derogation as “limitation, prohibition”, Aygun said
Turkey would meet various limitations even if it becomes an EU member.
Aygun said Cyprus issue was a “question mark”, stating that, “it
is not definite what will be brought in front of us till October
3rd. Armenian issue, ecumenicalism, opening of Armenian border pass,
and allegations on Armenian genocide were not brought onto the
agenda. We can not know that would be asked from us from now on.”
Zafer Caglayan, Chairman of Ankara Chamber of Industry, said the
decision to start full membership negotiations with Turkey till October
3rd, 2005 was pleasing, stating that, “today is a new starting for
Turkey. However the efforts actually start today.”
Caglayan said Turkey entered a new period from now on, noting that all
sections of the society should undertake important responsibilities
from now on.
Meanwhile, the Motherland Party (ANAP) Headquarters issued a statement
and said a success was made in “making concessions” during the December
17th summit.
The statement said the demands, which have not been asked from any
country since the foundation of the EU, was imposed to Turkey.
Recalling that in the previous statements of Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister & Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah
Gul, it was reported that a negotiation process would be taken without
any condition and that Cyprus issue would never be brought onto the
agenda, the statement said, “we think that Mr. Erdogan does not
accept those as condition.”
Dogu Perincek, the leader of Labor Party, said the commitments made
by the government would not bind Turkey.
Perincek told a news conference at his party center in Istanbul
that, “we do not recognize the commitments made by the government.
We announce to the whole world that those commitments would not
bind Turkey.”
Mehmet Agar, the leader of the True Path Party (DYP) said, “we
consider the point that was reached as positive for continuation of
the EU process.”
Agar told a news conference that EU presented opening of full
membership negotiations with Turkey as a favor, stating that Turkey
was exposed to a treatment that was not shown to any country before.
Asked if DYP had a study in following EU process, Agar said DYP had
a special study group, and that this would be improved.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Armenian parliament to mull country’s failure in EU
Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan
Dec 22 2004
The special session of the Armenian parliament to be held on Friday
has sparked confusion among the public.
Although the Armenian authorities explain the move with discussion
of several current issues, the local press have reported that the
public don’t believe in it. According to the Armenian press reports,
opposition circles relate this step by President Robert Kocharian to
withdrawal of the issue on recognition of the “Armenian genocide”
by Turkey for this country’s admission to the European Union (EU)
from the agenda of the last session of the organisation.
Member of the “Justice” bloc Sh. Kocharian has told the local press
that the fact that the EU has not raised the issue on recognition of
the “Armenian genocide” in front of Turkey testifies to weakness of
the Armenian authorities.
Although the Armenian President’s administration has not officially
elaborated the reasons of the special parliamentary session, the
opinions by the country’s opposition leader disclose the genuine
sense of the upcoming gathering.*

ASBAREZ ONLINE
TOP STORIES
12/22/2004
TO ACCESS PREVIOUS ASBAREZ ONLINE EDITIONS PLEASE VISIT OUR
WEBSITE AT <;HTTP:// 1) Dutch Parliament Adopts Motion on Armenian Genocide 2) Azeri Press Responds to New 'US-Drawn Map' Labeling Karabagh as 'Arguable Territory' 3) Armenian Foreign Minister Sums up Progress on Karabagh 4) Ceremony Marks Opening of Aerial Tramway at Tsakhkadzor Resort 5) Melkonian Students Excel in Exams, Defying Closure Threat 1) Dutch Parliament Adopts Motion on Armenian Genocide THE HAGUE (FAON)--The Dutch Parliament on Wednesday unanimously adopted a motion on recognition of the Armenian genocide, reported the Federation of the Armenian Organizations in the Netherlands. Introduced by the Chairman of Christian Union faction André Rouvoet, the motion specifically directs Dutch government officials "to bring up recognition of the Armenian Genocide continuously and expressly in [their] dialogue with Turkey." The motion was backed by all political parties in the Parliament. It was introduced during a debate on the outcome of last Friday's summit of European leaders who decided to begin EU accession talks with Turkey. In that debate, nearly all Dutch political factions addressed the absence of the Armenian genocide issue in the EU's Presidency Conclusions. The Dutch, ironically, currently hold the EU Presidency. Dutch Foreign Minister Ben Bot, nevertheless, assured the Parliament that the Armenian question has always been brought up in meetings with Turkish colleagues. The Armenian community of The Netherlands has consistently pushed the Dutch Parliament and government to recognize the Armenian genocide--especially in the run-up to and during the Dutch presidency of the EU. 2) Azeri Press Responds to New 'US-Drawn Map' Labeling Karabagh as 'Arguable Territory' (Azg)--A new US-drawn map, which reportedly labels Karabagh as "arguable territory," has caused a stir in two Baku newspapers who responded to the issue in their latest editions. In an article titled "Azerbaijan without Karabagh?" Zerkalo claims that the map was drawn by the 'US National Geographic Center.' Other states which also bear the label "arguable territory," according to the paper, are the West bank of the Jordan River, Northern Cyprus, Abkhazia, and Southern Ossetia. Zerkalo also reports that Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry has urged its embassy in Washington to inquire about the motivation behind not labeling Karabagh as an Azeri region. Another Baku newspaper, Yeni Zaman, alleges that after Armenia, Karabagh is second in line receiving direct aid from the US. According to the paper, American annual aid to Karabagh will amount to $3 million by 2005. The paper also refers to a 1970s CIA top-secret document which "considered Karabagh a historic Armenian territory, and highlights the fact that "Karabagh was a semi-independent unit for centuries and was ruled by Armenian rulers even in times when other Armenian regions were under Turkish and Persian yoke." 3) Armenian Foreign Minister Sums up Progress on Karabagh YEREVAN (A1+, RFE/RL)--Armenian foreign minister Vartan Oskanian on Wednesday summed up 2004, saying that Armenia had both sudden surges as well as falls--achievements along with failures. Speaking about negotiations on the Mountainous Karabagh conflict, he stressed the importance of maintaining political stability in Armenia in order to advance that process. Convinced that certain progress has been registered during negotiations, he said, "Today, we are at more advantageous position than were in 1997," but cautioned that the success of those negotiations is not a forgone conclusion. "What we are trying to do today, and I see the possibilities of that, is to get the international community to recognize the Mountainous Karabagh people's right to self-determination with an agreement resolving the problem," he told a news conference on Wednesday. "The implementation of that self-determination may not necessarily be immediate." The Armenian and Azeri foreign ministers are expected to resume their face-to-face meetings in the Czech capital next month. 4) Ceremony Marks Opening of Aerial Tramway at Tsakhkadzor Resort TSAKHKADZOR (President.am)--President Robert Kocharian participated in the opening ceremony of the newly renovated aerial tramway at the Tsakhkadzor resort. Kocharian hailed the completion, adding that the last section of the tramway would be ready by next year, meeting all international standards. "The new aerial tramway is built on a higher level than Tsakhkadzor's entire infrastructure. We should encourage businesses and investors to build new hotels here, introduce services and leisure places to make Tsakhkadzor a true tourist attraction. Only in that case can we claim that we reached our goal," Kocharian stressed. The 2500 meters long aerial tramway has been renovated by a prominent Swiss company specializing in assembling aerial tramways and other construction works. The Tsakhkadzor resort is on the eastern slope of Mount Teghenis and is famous for its numerous lodges and sport facilities. 5) Melkonian Students Excel in Exams, Defying Closure Threat NICOSIA (Financial Mirror)--Two Melkonian students were among the 135 recipients of the High Achiever awards given out to students who gained top international marks at an award ceremony in Nicosia last week. Together with their schoolmates, they overcame the troubles caused by the New York based administrators' announcement on March 16 to shut down the school and continued with their external examinations. Hovhannes Atabekyan, a 2004 graduate of the school, was one of only ten students in Cyprus to gain straight A's in five Advanced Level subjects, while only three other Cypriots gained six A's. Elizabeth Torossian notched up the highest Ordinary Level international subject mark in Armenian, an award achieved in only ten other subjects worldwide. "These outstanding results cast a shadow over the true intentions of the school's administrators to shut down the Melkonian and sell off the land," the Melkonian Alumni Association of Cyprus said in an announcement. All subscription inquiries and changes must be made through the proper carrier and not Asbarez Online. ASBAREZ ONLINE does not transmit address changes and subscription requests. (c) 2004 ASBAREZ ONLINE. All Rights Reserved. ASBAREZ provides this news service to ARMENIAN NEWS NETWORK members for academic research or personal use only and may not be reproduced in or through mass media outlets. --Boundary_(ID_Ek2kbT/MYN4B6/XBStDRag)-- From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

French PM Raffarin Uses ‘Genocide’ Term in Turkey-EU Debates
Journal of Turkish Weekly
Dec 22 2004
French Prime Minister Jean Pierre Raffarin has followed the lead of
his Foreign Minister, Michel Barnier, in using the expression
“Armenian Genocide” publicly.
At a session organized at the French Parliament to discuss the
opening of membership negotiations between the European Union (EU)
and Turkey, Raffarin disclosed that they have prepared a law on
“Armenian Genocide” at the parliament and that the Armenian and
Kurdish issues will be raised with Turkey.
Raffarin pointed out that Turkey’s EU perspective was assigned in
1963 and that no French administrations have considered Turkey’s EU
membership as a subject worth discussing since then.
He emphasized that nothing can keep Turkey out of Europe once Turkey
fulfills all the requirements and it will become an EU member.
There is a strong Armenian diaspora in France and the radical
Armenian lobbying groups make pressure on the French Government.
Turkey does not recognise the Armenian ‘genocide allegations’ and
condemns France for its attitude on the Armenian issue.
Turkish officials argue that it is not understable French Government
gives more importance to the events claimed happened about 100 years
ago than the current hot issues, like the Armenian occupation of the
20 per cent of Azerbaijani territories. Gulcan from ISRO saida “it is
strange, for the French politicians the only problem with Turkey’s EU
bid is the 1915 events. French Government just focuses on the
Armenian allegations instead of cultural dialogue, minority problems
in France, French-Turkish economic and political relations etc. If
France considers 3 million Armenia is more important than 75 million
Turkey, so, there is no problem then. Today’s France simply igonres
Turkish reality. Theye are talking about history, but if they
continue to lose time, cultural harmonization and European security
will be history”.
22 December 2004
JTW

New French OSCE Minsk Group co-chair appointed
Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan
Dec 22 2004
Bernard Fassier has been appointed as the new French co-chair of the
OSCE Minsk Group. He is due to visit the region on January 25.
During the visit, a special mission of the OSCE, jointly with the
MG co-chairs, is expected to visit Upper Garabagh and other occupied
regions of Azerbaijan to look into the illegal settlement of Armenians
there.
Fassier worked as ambassador of France in Georgia in 1990s. Before
his new appointment, he acted as Deputy High Representative of the
European Union mission in Sarajevo.
Fassier attended the recent meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian
foreign ministers in Sofia, along with the OSCE MG co-chairs.
The previous French co-chair Henry Jacolin was expected to give up
the position this summer, but his term was later extended.*

IFEX MEMBERS HIGHLIGHT FREE EXPRESSION CONCERNS AMIDST EU TALKS
IFEX, Canada
Dec 22 2004
As Turkey took one step closer toward membership in the European
Union (EU) with the agreement last week to begin formal accession
talks, IFEX members focused attention on the need to continue
pressing the Turkish government on its free expression record.
The Writers in Prison Committee (WiPC) of International PEN and the
International Publishers Association (IPA) released a set of
recommendations for bringing Turkey’s new Penal Code in line with
European free expression standards.
The groups say the Code, adopted on 27 September 2004, contains
several provisions that discourage debate on sensitive topics,
including Cyprus and the Armenian genocide. They say the EU must
“take action now to eliminate all remaining obstacles to freedom of
expression under Turkish law.”
Reporters Without Borders (Reporters sans frontières, RSF) is also
calling for the new Penal Code to be amended. Under Article 305 of
the Code, opinions and statements about Cyprus or Armenia could be
considered “threats against fundamental national interests,” a
provision the European Parliament has said is incompatible with the
1950 Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental
Freedoms. The Code also contains a provision (Article 127) under
which the crime of insult can be punishable by up to three years in
prison.
RSF says that while Turkey has made genuine progress in reforming its
laws, the climate continues to remain harsh for journalists who are
outspoken. Turkish courts impose prison sentences and exorbitant
fines that encourage self-censorship, while
television and radio stations remain subject to “brazen censorship,”
the organisation notes.
The European Federation of Journalists (EFJ), a regional affiliate of
the International Federation of Journalists, has expressed concerns
that journalists in Turkey do not enjoy the right to collectively
organise within unions. The group warns that a proposed Trade Unions
Law could “deprive journalists of their right to organise
independently in defence of their specific rights.”
Despite these concerns, Human Rights Watch says the EU accession
process has helped bring about significant human rights improvements
in Turkey and strengthened the efforts of reform advocates. The EU’s
decision to start formal accession talks with
Turkey follows an October 2004 evaluation by the European Commission,
which concluded that “Turkey sufficiently fulfils the political
criteria” to begin negotiations.
–Boundary_(ID_n9dV75fuVGb372nIeZUf/w)–

Armenian kin face another setback
By Nancy Lofholm, Denver Post Staff Writer
Denver Post, CO
Dec 22 2004
The government has appealed a ruling that made the eldest daughter
a legal U.S. resident.
Immigration officials have thrown up one more roadblock for an Armenian
family that has been fighting for six years to become legal residents
of the United States.
An attorney for the Immigration and Customs Enforcement division
of the Department of Homeland Security has appealed the recent
immigration-court ruling that granted legal status for the eldest
daughter of the Sargsyan family, Nvart Idinyan.
The appeal claims that Idinyan engaged in marriage fraud when she
wed American Vaughn Huckfeldt in her homeland in 1995.
The Sargsyans deny that and blame Huckfeldt for causing all their
immigration woes. They allege he was engaged in human trafficking and
falsely promised to secure visas for Armenians after taking thousands
of dollars from them.
He brought the Sargsyan family to the United States in 1999 after,
they say, Armenians who had been duped out of money for visas by
Huckfeldt were threatening and harassing the Sargsyans.
“My personal belief is that Vaughn Huckfeldt conned them (immigration
officials) as much as he conned Nvart. He is a master con man,”
said Jeff Joseph, the Denver immigration lawyer who is handling the
Sargsyans’ case.
Huckfeldt is reportedly living in Germany and could not be reached for
comment. He faces a warrant for his arrest in the United States, where
he has not paid child support for the son he and Idinyan had in 1996.
Joseph said Huckfeldt alleged after Idinyan filed for divorce in
1999 that she had married him for a green card. Those allegations
were dismissed following a hearing before an immigration judge in
Denver in 2000.
The appeal affects the immigration cases of other members of the
Sargsyan family.
Idinyan remarried, and her current husband has adopted her two minor
brothers. If Idinyan’s legal status had not been challenged, it would
have given her brothers, Gevorg, 20, and Hayk, 17, more legal standing.
Gevorg, Hayk, their father, Ruben, and sister, Meri, recently spent
five weeks in an immigration detention center awaiting deportation.
The matriarch of the family, Susan Idinyan, was not jailed because
her case is being heard separately.
Luisa Aquino, a spokeswoman for Immigration and Customs Enforcement,
said her agency has the right to appeal any decision made by an
immigration judge.

Journal of Turkish Weekly, Turkey
Dec 22 2004
EU-Turkey Membership Deal, Subject to De Facto Recognition of Greek
Cyprus
Theme: This report examines the historic agreement taken by European
Union leaders at their 16-17 December summit in Brussels to begin
accession talks with Turkey after 41 years in Europe’s ante-room. The
process will begin on 3 October, 2005 provided Turkey has by then
tacitly recognised Cyprus, which joined the EU in May. Turkey invaded
the island in 1974 and it has been divided since then. Both the
previous Popular Party government (1996-2004) and the current
Socialist administration have been among the most active supporters
of Turkey’s membership.
Summary: EU leaders endorsed the European Commission’s momentous
recommendation on 6 October to open accession talks with Turkey (see
). But they added a
condition which threatened to end the marriage before the two sides
got to the altar. The negotiations almost broke down as a result of
the demand that Ankara formally recognise Cyprus. The situation is
surreal because Turkey is set to join a club one of whose members it
does not formally recognise. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish Prime
Minister, rejected the EU’s first proposal and threatened to abandon
the summit, apparently backed by the chief of the Turkish armed
forces.
Erdogan’s brinkmanship paid off. A compromise was reached under which
Turkey agreed to extend its customs union (as of 1996) to include
Cyprus before October. This allowed Erdogan to save face at home,
particularly among the powerful military, by maintaining that Turkey
was not formally recognising Cyprus but making a gesture of goodwill
tantamount to recognition (see box below).
Other EU entry terms included open-ended talks, no guarantee of full
membership if conditions are not met and the possibility of some
safeguards remaining over the migration of workers from Turkey.
The protracted process for membership during which Turkey has to
harmonise its laws with EU legislation will last at least 10 years
and could be compounded by Austrian and French pledges to hold
referendums on Turkish entry at some point in the future. Every EU
country has the right to veto the accession of a new member. A 1972
poll in France saw two-thirds of voters backing the UK’s accession to
the EU.
As a large (with a population of more than 70 million), poor (with a
per capita income of 27% of the EU-25) and Muslim country, Turkey’s
membership is in a special category of its own with far-reaching
implications for the country and for the Union as a whole.
-The Cyprus Issue:Cyprus is one of the world’s longest unresolved
disputes. In July 1974 the Cypriot President Archbishop Makarios, a
Greek Cypriot, was deposed in a coup backed by Greece’s military
junta. Turkey, fearing that its traditional enemy would annexe the
island, responded by invading it and enforcing a partition between
the north and south of the island. In 1983 the Turkish-held area
declared itself the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. It is
recognised only by Turkey.
Turkey won sympathy in March 2004 from the international community
because Turkish-Cypriots in the northern part endorsed the UN drafted
reunification plan with a 65% majority while more than three-quarters
of Greek-Cypriots in the south, already granted EU membership,
rejected it. As a result, and to the immense frustration of the UN
and the EU over the historic missed opportunity, only the southern
part joined the EU on May 1 as both sides had to approve the
reunification plan.
Turkey and Turkish-Cypriots, in a volte face, bent over backwards for
a power-sharing deal and also opened the border for the first time in
30 years.
But Greek-Cypriots stubbornly resisted any change. Tassos
Papadopoulos, the island’s president, threatened in October, ahead of
the Brussels summit, to veto Turkey’s EU entry if Turkey did not
reduce its 36,000 soldiers in the northern part, allow
Cypriot-registered vessels to dock at Turkish ports and end its veto
of the island’s bid to join international bodies such as the OECD and
the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe. The Greek
Cypriot government scuppered the European Commission’s bid in October
to end the economic isolation of northern Cyprus by allowing
Turkish-Cypriots to trade freely with the world. The Greek Cypriot
‘No’ infuriated the European Commission, which wanted to bring the
Turkish community into the economic mainstream.
Erdogan was justifiably angry at Cyprus’ tactics, but was not in a
position to turn his back on the issue as Cyprus might then have
exercised its right to veto Turkey’s EU entry which needed the
approval of all 25 EU countries. Tony Blair, Gerhard Schröder and
Jacques Chirac brokered a way out of the impasse. Diplomatic
recognition is the trump card which Ankara has yet to play in its
push to find a permanent solution to the anomalous situation. Turkey
is still pressing for the UN plan to be implemented but another
formula may have to be found.-
Analysis: By postponing the start of accession talks until October,
despite the decision taken at the December 2002 Copenhagen summit to
open them “without delay” once the European Council gave the green
light, the EU bowed to a French demand. President Jacques Chirac, a
strong supporter of Turkey despite fierce opposition within his UMP
party, had called for the talks to start after his country’s
referendum on the new European Constitution (expected before the end
of June), fearing the ‘no’ campaign could harness public opposition
to Turkish membership of the EU. ‘If there is a link between Turkey
and the constitution, we will lose the referendum’, said Michel
Barnier, French foreign minister.
The constitution has to be approved by all 25 EU countries in
referendums or parliamentary votes. Spain will be the first EU
country to hold a referendum on 20 February. The prospects for a
French ‘yes’ now look greater, particularly as 59% of Socialist Party
members who voted in an internal ballot backed the treaty, giving a
big boost to the European debate.
The EU’s decision to open the door to Turkey was taken against a
backdrop of rising hostility to Turkey’s membership in some countries
including Spain. In the latest Elcano barometer carried out with CIS,
only 44% of those surveyed were in favour of Turkey’s membership,
compared with 56% in May. According to the latest Eurobarometer
opinion poll, 53% of EU citizens are in favour of further
enlargement, but support falls to just over one third in France and
Germany. Only 39% of those polled in France and 36% in Germany said
they wanted the EU-25 to be expanded. At 28%, support was at its
lowest in Austria. The go-ahead for Turkey, however, was preceded by
a vote in the European Parliament in favour of accession talks (407
to 262 with 29 abstentions).
Erdogan laid down several red lines, particularly on not extending
diplomatic recognition to Cyprus. His political opponents have long
been accused him of being soft on the issue and criticised him after
the summit for paying too high a price for membership talks.
According to the Turkish press, Erdogan told Jan Peter Balkenende,
the Dutch prime minister and current holder of the EU’s presidency,
in an angry exchange during the summit: ‘You are choosing 600,000
Greek Cypriots over 70 million Turks. I have nothing to reproach them
for, but I cannot justify this to my people’. The other red lines
were:
– Negotiations must have Turkey’s complete membership as the final
aim.
– The decision to start talks must not be conditional on later
decisions by EU leaders.
– There should be no special conditions imposed permanently on
Turkey.
The other contentious country issue –Armenia– did not raise its head,
but will have to be dealt with at some point if only because a
country cannot join the EU if it does not have ‘normal’ relations
with all its neighbours. The border with Armenia has been closed
since 1993 due to the Karabag conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia
and other issues including historic tensions arising from the 1915-16
massacre (or ‘genocide’) by Turkey of Armenians. Michel Barnier, the
French foreign minister, spoke to his country’s gallery before the
summit when he urged Turkey to recognise the ‘genocide’. Turkey does
not recognise that it was ‘genocide’ and would like an independent
commission of historians to examine all the archives and pronounce on
the issue.
Erdogan could claim a substantial but not a complete victory, still
sufficient, however, to justify being named European of the Year at
the European Voice awards shortly before the summit. Erdogan was also
nominated as non-European Union citizen of the year. The government
pulled out the stops as much as it could before the summit in order
to impress the EU. For example, it opened up its national security
council, the secretive institution long regarded as Turkey’s main
decision-making body. The council briefed diplomats and the media on
its operations in an unprecedented display of transparency.
The idea of offering a second-class ‘privileged partnership’ for
Turkey, as opposed to the prospect of full membership, demanded by
opponents in the run-up to the summit, particularly Germany’s
opposition Christian Democrats, did not see the light of day. Erdogan
made it very clear that it was all or nothing. EU leaders agreed a
form of words which stressed that the aim of Turkey’s accession talks
would be full membership, but if that was not possible the country
‘must be anchored in European structures’. This wording is more
ambiguous than a reference to ‘privileged partnership’. However, a
key phrase about establishing ‘permanent safeguards’ on allowing
Turkish workers to settle anywhere in the EU was kept in the text.
The decision to open accession talks followed the recommendation of
the European Commission. The main points of its report justifying the
start of talks were:
– Conclusion: ‘Turkey has achieved significant legislative progress
in many areas… Important progress was made on implementation of
political reforms, but these need to be further consolidated and
broadened’.
– Political reforms: ‘Political reforms, in line with the priorities
in the Accession Partnership, have been introduced by… a series of
constitutional and legislative changes adopted over a period of three
years (2001-2004)’.
– Economic reforms: ‘Economic stability and predictability have been
substantially improved since the 2001 economic crisis. Previously
high inflation has come down to historic lows, political interference
reduced and the institutional and regulatory framework has been
brought closer to international standards’.
– Military reforms: ‘The government has increasingly asserted its
control over the military. Although the process of aligning
civil-military relations with EU practice is underway, the armed
forces in Turkey continue to exercise influence through a series of
informal channels’.
– Judicial reforms: ‘The independence and efficiency of the judiciary
were strengthened’.
– Human rights: ‘Concerning… the respect of human rights and the
exercise of fundamental freedoms, Turkey has acceded to most relevant
international and European conventions’.
– Torture: ‘The authorities have adopted a zero tolerance policy
towards torture and a number of perpetrators have been punished.
Torture is no longer systematic, but numerous cases of ill-treatment,
including torture, still continue to occur and further efforts will
be required to eradicate such practices’.
– Women’s rights: ‘The situation of women is still unsatisfactory;
discrimination and violence against women, including “honour
killings”, remain a major problem’.
– Children’s rights: ‘Children’s rights were strengthened, but child
labour remains an issue of serious concern’.
– Minority rights: ‘The OSCE [Organisation for Security and
Co-operation in Europe] High Commissioner on National Minorities
could play a valuable role in assisting Turkey to move towards full
compliance with modern international standards on the treatment of
minorities, including the Kurds’.
– Freedom of religion: ‘Although freedom of religious belief is
guaranteed by the constitution… non-Muslim religious communities
continue to experience problems’.
– Freedom of the press: ‘Notable progress has been made, (but)…
journalists, writers and publishers continue to be sentenced for
reasons that contravene the standards of the European Court of Human
Rights’.
Between this report and the summit the debate on Turkey among
opponents and supporters became very intense. The greatest
controversy was caused by Valery Giscard d’Estaing, the former French
president and president of the European Convention, who once again
took up the cudgels against Turkey. It was Giscard who said in 2002
that Turkey was ‘not a European country’ and its membership would
spell ‘the end of Europe’ and he followed this up less than a month
before the Brussels summit by saying that the proposed new European
Constitution (whose drafting he presided over) was ‘not designed to
accommodate a power the size of Turkey’.(1) ‘Accession by Turkey,
whenever it took place, would make the country the major
decision-maker in the European Union, and would change the nature of
the European project’.
Giscard’s remarks provoked many comments, including a letter
published in the Financial Times by Ana de Palacio, a former Spanish
Foreign Minister and a member of the Praesidium of the European
Convention. She criticised Giscard for failing ‘to bring much reason
to the debate over Turkey’ and suggested that he might have had in
mind the problems that the double-majority issue would cause for
Turkey when he wrote it into the new constitution.
Under a key provision of the new constitution (which has to be
approved by all countries in referendums or parliamentary votes),
known as double-majority voting, Turkey would automatically be
accorded a strong position in EU decision-making. Under the
constitution all decisions that do not need to be made unanimously
–many matters, especially foreign policy and taxation, still do– must
be backed by at least 65% of the EU’s population and 55% of member
states. Put another way, any country would need support from 35% of
the EU population and 45% of member states to block a proposal it did
not like. Turkey’s population (80 million in 2015, the earliest date
when it would join the EU assuming all goes well, roughly the same as
Germany’s) gives it considerable power, but even if it is the most
populous country it would not be able to block any decisions alone;
it would need the populations of at least two other big countries to
meet the required 35% mark.
In another letter in the FT, Stephen Wall, Tony Blair’s former EU
adviser, took Giscard to task for saying in his article that all
Turkey was offered in its 1963 associate member agreement with the
European Community was membership of the Common Market. This was
incorrect, he said, and cited the text of the agreement: ‘As soon as
the operation of the agreement has advanced far enough to justify
envisaging full acceptance by Turkey of the obligations arising out
of the treaty establishing the Community, the contracting parties
shall examine the possibility of the accession of Turkey to the
Community’. Giscard conveniently forgot this.
EU membership is of huge importance for the economy for three main
reasons. First, it will make the Customs Union (as of 1996)
irreversible because as long as Turkey remains outside the EU bloc,
it can be reversed by either party. Far from wiping out some Turkish
businesses, as they feared at the onset, the Customs Union has been
very good for Turkish exports and companies have stood their ground
in the face of increased imports. For example, exports of automotive
components have risen from US$155 million in 1995 to around US$5
billion. Secondly, the risk premium on public debt will fall (this
has already started), both easing the pressure on public finances and
improving the performance of the economy. Thirdly, inflows of foreign
direct investment will probably surge from their current very low
levels, leading to higher growth rates and lower unemployment.
Turkey’s stock of investment is lower today than it was in the 1980s;
annual inflows have rarely reached more than US$1 billion (Spain and
Ireland both attracted over US$25 billion in 2003). The Istanbul
Stock Exchange hit a record high the day the EU made its
announcement.
Some analysts ambitiously forecast that Turkey’s per capita income
could increase over the next 10 years from around €4,000 to €14,000
in purchasing power parity terms, spurred by the country’s clearer
horizon.
The Turkish economy has been something of a star in the last year
after recovering from its 2001 crisis. The economy is by far the
fastest growing in Europe and the inflation rate has fallen to single
figures for the first time since 1972. The IMF recognised Turkey’s
progress two days before the start of the Brussels EU summit when it
announced a new three-year US$10 billion stand-by agreement which,
according to Rodrigo Rato, the IMF’s managing director, ‘should allow
Turkey to exit from further IMF financial support’.
As a result of finally getting inflation under control, on 1 January
Turkey will remove six noughts from the face value of the lira: one
unit of the local currency will then be worth what one million are
now (€0.53), welcome news for tourists and foreign investors who have
to mentally wrestle with strings of zeros and carry wads of notes.
Yet the economy remains vulnerable. Turkey has massive debts
including US$23 billion owed to the IMF and billions borrowed via the
international bond markets. At around 80% of GDP, Turkey’s gross debt
is double that of the new EU member status. Turkey’s debts have
largely arisen from its efforts to push through banking reform after
a run on the banks in 2001 caused the country’s devastating
recession.
Spain, with its experience of having spent eight years negotiating
its much easier EU membership (between 1978 and 1986), worked behind
the scenes to encourage Turkish politicians to keep their cool in the
face of those countries, like Cyprus, using the summit as an open
agenda to settle old scores and stay focused on the overriding goal
of membership.
Spain could well be a useful model for Turkey when the talks start.
The same fears about impoverished workers flooding the European
labour market existed about Spain 20 years ago as are now being made
about Turkey. An often overlooked point in the debate about a
possible surge in Turkish immigrants to the EU is that, like Spain,
Turkey will itself become a magnet for immigrants when it is a full
EU member. Just as no one in Spain could have predicted 20 years ago
that today there would be an estimated more than one million North
Africans in Spain, so too it is quite likely that a richer Turkey
will attract workers from Iran, Iraq, Syria and other poorer
countries with whom it shares a border.
Conclusion: Turkey has achieved impressive reforms on all fronts
since it was declared an EU candidate in 1999. The long and uncertain
process that now opens will be more wrenching.
Notes:
(1)See his article ‘A better European bridge to Turkey’ (Financial
Times, 24 November, 2004).
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