Category: News

Hovsep  Khurshudyan
Associated Expert
The Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs

It’s highly likely that Azerbaijan, being armed in such rapid temps, will never agree on peaceful resolution of Artsakh conflict, even if the Armenian side is ready to return the liberated territories, including Qarvachar and a greater part of former Lachin region. The maximalism of Aliyev’s regime and torpedoing of a reasonable compromise is being fueled by inflated self-overestimation from petrodollars. In reality, though, this disproportion is a real menace for the security of both Armenia’s and Artsakh’s citizens.

Constant threats of Aliyev the juior towards Armenia, proclamation of the world’s Armenians as Azerbaijan’s enemy, announcing Yerevan, Zangezur and Lake Sevan as “historical territory of Azerbaijan’s ancestors”, should become a serious concern for the citizens of both Armenia and Artsakh. From now on, neutralization of the threat of Aliyev’s regime towards not only Armenia’s security, but its existence as well, must become a priority of foreign and military policies the sooner the better.

In the meantime, while the ruling party having come into power through forged elections in Armenia, proceeds with poor and ineffective governance, the level of corruption in the country is still immense, and houndreds of thousands of citizens migrate, Aliyevs regime has ungrounded hope, that, at last, it would be able to gain such a military advantage towards literally “bleeding Armenia and Artsakh”, then without hesitation, at a proper moment it will resume war and reach cherished goal.

Throughout the last 10 and especially 4-5 years Azerbaijan’s strategic currency reserves, formed from backups of oil foundation and Central Bank, as well as from treasury means of the Ministry of Finances, have increased 30 times, reaching USD 50 billion.

But the West has vital and influential financial levers over Azerbaijan. One of them is the fact, that Azerbaijan’s currency reserves are deposited exclusively in western banks. In case of war it’s not excluded, that under certain circumstances they can be frozen and not allocated to Aliyev. Another lever is the possibility of sharp decrease of oil production volumes by western companies in Azerbaijan.

Funds, which have already been accumulated by Baku, are sufficient for the coming 20 years to spend about USD 2 billion for the purchase of armament each year. This is an indicator, to which Armenia can’t reach at the same period, even if as a result of a miraculous transformation, like regime change, national unity and mobilization of the nation’s power, the annual GDP growth will become 10-15%, and foreign investments will be ten times more as compared to current situation.

As per some calculations, if oil price remains even on the current level, USD 58 for a barrel, and the gas price – USD 104 for 1000m³, 10 years later – in 2025- Azerbaijan’s strategic currency reserves will grow by 10-20 billion, reaching USD 70 billion.

Figure 1. Azerbaijan’s military expenditures 1999-2014 (USD)

The problem under this research is observation not only of tactics and strategy of the Armenian side in case of Azerbaijan’s attack, but also political possibilities and consequences of such scenario, following which any opportunity given by Azerbaijan, will be first and foremost used by Armenia to strike militarily and to defeat enemy’s main attack, its strategic weapons and infrastructures, then under the threat of invading to the territory of Azerbaijan or its realization, peace will be imposed in the form of final trilateral agreement, in which recognition of Artakh’s independence within its constitutional boorders will be provided.

Sustainability of current ceasefire, as well as its end and resumption of military actions are anchored not only on the military component, but on a political as well. Is the political component favorable now? If yes, is this going to last forever for the republics of Armenia and Artsakh?

Under the deepening confrontation between Azerbaijan and the West “giving the green light” by the latter, and especially the USA, shouldn’t be excluded before imposing final peace to Azerbaijan by Armenian military forces.

The possibility to get West’s support will grow, if Armenian forces express readiness to enter the war by certain purposes and conditions consentient with it, among them non-targeting the energy pipelines stretching from Azerbaijan to Europe.

It’ll be more profitable for Armenia to reach to an agreement with the West not striking energy pipelines, and gaining support from the West instead. The Kremlin’s awareness on the availability of such an agreement can itself have a preventive value, and result in not instigating Azerbaijan to resume the war: one of the main reasons of its instigation remaims the assumption, that Azerbaijan’s agression will result in elimination of energy pipelines in the aftermath of Armenian counter-atack that can boost the growth of oil’s world price, acting as a lifeline for Russia’s economy even for a certain period.

By any excuse, whether energy pipeline defense in case of NATO, or support to Armenia within responsibilities of the CSTO (if e.g. Azerbaijan attacks the territory of the Republic of Armenia) in case of Russia or CSTO forces, unilaterally entering the region (first and foremost to Azerbaijan) by a third party can entail in invasion into the territory by other forces.

Moreover, it refers not only CSTO or NATO or Russia and the USA, but also Turkey under the “one century mandate” pretext of defending Nakhijevan, or Iran, for the pretext to provide security of Iran-Armenia road of strategic importance, or, to prevent the possible humanitarian disaster in Talish regions in case of escalation of the situation. In any case, capabilities of western countries and Iran to deploy forces in the region, and especially on the conflict zone, as compared to Russia are very limited though.

In case of a likewise scenario, Azerbaijan can turn into a zone of sectoral presence for extra-regional forces, the future of which will be negotiated between the forces deployed in the region, following the example of post-war Germany.

Resolution of Artsakh conflict under favorable conditions for Armenia and on the basis of shadow agreements with the West can result in strengthening of Armenia’s sovereignty up to liberation from the colonial contract on gas monopoly with Russia signed in 2014.

Otherwise, if after lifting sanctions over Iran an agreement is reached between Tehran and the West in the near future (based on which Iranian and even Turkemenistan’s gas will be supplied to Europe, and one of its possible routes is through the territory of Armenia), then as far as in case of Armenia, the West and Iran will have to come to such an agreement not with Armenia’s authorities, but with the Kremlin.

In that case “Gazprom,” more precisely, Russian bureaucrats and oligarchs, but not Armenia and its people will gain tremendous dividends. Upon the roughest calculations, for transition of 50m³ gas from Meghri to Bavra, about 600km, Armenia, in case of acting as an independent player can gain USD 1 billion net profit (transition of 1000m³ gas for 100km is estimated by USD 3,4). The issue of supplying Iran’s oil and gas to Europe is among the crucial issues, which, in the end made the West to close a deal with Iran.

If republics of Armenia and Artsakh will have to undertake preventive military actions independently, for the purpose of imposing peace to Azerbaijan, then Russia’s and Iran’s interests and possible responses should be taken into account, and not to lead communication and cooperation tubes of the countries to a deadlock. To that end it&#8217
;s of utmost importance to accurately analyse extra-regional interests, from the perspective of final resolution of Artsakh problem through military means.

As a guarantee for Azerbaijan’s renouncement of further revanche ambtitions, after the war Armenia may put the issue of fully provision of autonomous status to national minorities, i.e. Talishes, Lezgins, Tats and Avar-Tsakhurs. In other words: Azerbaijan’s federalisation by affiliate participation of all nations living in the country, formation of a common state under international control, by full decentralization of power and integration of peacekeepers in the regions.

The research was conducted and scenarios were developed by the author in July 2015. The full version of the research will be available on AIISA website () after the expert round table on the topic.

Officials from several countries have said that more than 1,000 people died in last week’s stampede near Mecca during the annual Hajj pilgrimage, the reports.

The last figure given by the Saudi authorities was 769.

However, a Nigerian official told the BBC that more than 1,000 bodies had been taken from the disaster site to morgues in the city of Jeddah.

Indian, Pakistani and Indonesian officials have also been quoted as saying they think more than 1,000 died.

Several countries have been severely critical of the way the Saudi authorities have handled the accident’s aftermath, notably Saudi Arabia’s regional rival Iran, which lost at least 228 people in the disaster.

Iranian  claims the Saudi government confirms the death toll in the recent Hajj tragedy has reached 4,173.

It quotes Saudi Vice Minister of Health Hamad bin Muhammad Al-Duweila as saying on Tuesday that he has received a photo showing that 4,173 pilgrims were killed in the tragic incident in Minda, near the holy city of Mecca.

The US co-chair commented on Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s recent statement that Nagorno-Karabakh is an inseparable part of Armenia.

The co-chairs remain committed to addressing all elements of a settlement that are of importance to the parties, Warlick added.

The Armenian office of the Institute for War & Peace Reporting, in cooperationwith the Public Journalism Club and the Media Center, will hold a discussion on the position of Iraqi Yezidi refugees in Armenia on September 30.

Three Yezidi families from Iraq have obtained refugee status in Armenia so far, but community representatives are expecting the government to do more. For instance, the Sinjar Yezidi National Union Sinjar has previously asked the Armenian foreign ministry to work with its Georgian counterpart to facilitate travel from Turkey. The ministry has said this will be a long process since the National Security Service will need to check each individual separately.

Yezidis are the largest minority in Armenia. According to the 2011 census, there were more than 35,000 of them, accounting for about one per cent of the population. Many Yezidis began settling here during the Russian-Turkish wars of the 19th century, and more fled the Ottoman Empire alongside with Armenians during the massacres of 1915.

The State Youth Orchestra of Armenia, under the baton of maestro Sergey Smbatyan, performed on the same stage with world-renowned violinist Ara Malikian, who was nominated for “Latin Grammy.”

The concerts took place on September 25, in “Mozart” Concert Hall in Zaragoza, and on September 26 in Royal Theatre of Madrid.

Works by Khachaturian, Mendelssohn, Paganini, Tchaikovsky and others, works from “Led Zeppelin” repertoire were performed. M Ara Malikian’s  “1915”, dedicated to the victims of the Armenian Genocide, specially written for these concerts, was also presented.

Artistic Director and Principal Conductor of the State Youth Orchestra of Armenia Sergey Smbatyan said it was interesting for the Orchestra and for himself to work with a unique musician like Ara Malikian.

Ara Malikian was born in Beirut, studied in London and lives in Madrid. He is a virtuoso violinist with bright expressiveness, an author of a dozen albums. The sound of his violin is the most original and innovative in the contemporary music world. Malikian participates in numerous prestigious international competitions, performing more than 450 concerts in 40 countries around the world every year.

Sergey Smbatyan noted also that in 2016 they will try to invite Ara Malikian to Armenia. “We are always looking for Armenians in other nations but we forget that we have real Armenian heroes that affect the formation of the image of Armenia abroad,” Smbatyan added.

This week on “Keeping Up With the Kardashians,” the West family and Khloe Kardashian are still in Armenia for the tail end of their trip. Back in Los Angeles, the rest of the family is in turmoil over Caitlyn Jenner’s transition, the International Business Times reports.

Before leaving Armenia, Kanye West decides to give back to the people of his wife’s ancestral land. They were received warmly during their visit, so Kanye puts up an

Kim and Kanye clearly have a blast with the thousands of people that showed up. Unfortunately, Khloe isn’t too happy that she wasn’t invited to the event. Kim says that she texted her sister but Khloe didn’t reply.

In the end, Khloe just decides to let the whole incident pass because she wants to avoid ruining the rest of the trip. They still have a few days left on their vacation because Kim and Kanye have decided to bring their daughter North West to Jerusalem to be baptized.

They head out for the baptism held at the which is situated at the ancient Armenian quarter of Jerusalem. Kim is ecstatic to have her dream come true and to be able to honor her Armenian father.

World famous Armenian-French singer Charles Aznavour will perform in Yerevan on October 10 on the occasion of the 31st Ministerial Conference of Francophonie, Nouvelles d’Armenie reports.

The concert will take place at the Sports and Concert Complex after Karen Demirchyan.

Tickets will go on sale from September 30.

“The targeted attacks on the Armenian border villages and the NKR Army divisions stationed kilometers away from the military positions, which claimed the lives of civilians and servicemen come to prove that in the face of Azerbaijan the international community has to deal with a state that has adopted a terrorist way of action and is guided by irresponsible and unbridled impunity,” the Public Council of the Armenian Ministry of Defense said in a statement released today.

“Baku does not conceal, and even impertinently demonstrates its negligent attitude towards international opinion, legal and humanitarian norms and its own commitments. By inciting armed clashes and escalating tensions at the border, Azerbaijan is actually eliminating the ceasefire regime and replacing it with a regime of political blackmail, thus foiling the mediating efforts towards the settlement of the Karabakh conflict,” the Council said.

“Despite all this, the political self-determination of Artsakh is a full-fledged and irreversible fact,” the Council said, adding that the Aliyev’s delirium of annexing it to Azerbaijan is a mere unrealizable dream, and following it will be disastrous for Azerbaijan itself.

“We offer our condolences to the families and friends of the victims and share their pain. We also express our support to the soldiers, officers and commanders of our Army, we are confident in the might of our Armed Forces,” the statement concludes.

Nagorno Karabakh has dismissed reports by the Azerbaijani side.

“The statement of the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry, claiming that seven Armenian servicemen were killed as a result of targeted strikes of their armed forces does not correspond to reality,” the NKR Defense Ministry said in a statement.

“The Ministry declares that Defense Army divisions resorted to punitive steps in response to Azerbaijani attacks, leaving more than ten Azeri soldiers killed and many wounded in the direction of Akna,” the statement reads.

The Defense Ministry added its armed forces incurred no losses.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has discussed the urgent issues of the Nagorno-Karabakh settlemen with co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group (US, France, Russia, OSCE), TASS reports, quoting the Russian Foreign Ministry.

“Urgent issues of the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement, the current situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and the contact line were discussed,” the ministry said.

“The Minsk Group Co-Chairs are committed to seeking new solutions and implementing the existing ones towards the settlement of the Karabakh conflict,” Lavros said Sunday.

“I’m very glad for this opportunity to compare notes and see what else we can do in addition to the steps taken to achieve progress in the settlement process,” the Russian Foreign Minister said at the beginning of the meeting with the Minsk Group Co-Chairs.

“Every co-chairing country is committed to the process, be it a French, American or Russian initiative in this direction,” Minister Lavrov said.