Category: 2023

6/22/2023 United States (International Christian Concern) ––“This is the oldest Christian nation facing again for the second time in only about a century the possibility of a genocide,” project coordinator Robert Nicholson stated as he returned from his trip from Armenia.  

Nicholson is discussing the Armenian Christians who suffered up to 1.5 million deaths in the waning years of the Ottoman Empire that the U.S. now recognizes as a genocide.  

Former Ambassador-at-Large for International Religious Freedom Sam Brownback informs Congress about the ongoing crisis between Azerbaijan and Armenia as he returned from a fact-finding trip to the two countries Tuesday.  

Alongside the human rights group Philos Project, Brownback traveled to Armenia and Azerbaijan to learn more about the ongoing conflict between Muslims in Azerbaijan and Christians in Armenia. The conflict began after the dissolution of the Soviet Union when both countries claimed the land for themselves. The first Nagorno-Karabakh War in 1994 ended with Armenia taking control of Nagorno –Karabakh. 

Conflict reemerged in 2020, with Azerbaijan taking control of large swaths of the region. Armenia’s only access to Nagorno-Karabakh is now through a thin strip of land called the “Lachin corridor.” 

In December, Azerbaijan established a blockade of the Lachin corridor which has resulted in a crippling of the Armenian infrastructure in Nagorno-Karabakh.  

Nicholson said that because of this blockade, “There has been no natural gas flowing since March, and other energy supplies, [such as] electricity, are spotty at best. Families have been separated. Surgeries have been canceled. The 120,000 people inside [Nagorno-Karabakh] are really desperate for help.” 

Coming back from his travels, Brownback has called for Congress to pass a Nagorno-Karabakh Human Rights Act to establish basic security guarantees for the Nagorno-Karabakh population. 

He also called on the U.S. to reinstate previously used sanctions on Azerbaijan should it continue its blockade. Many media outlets have characterized this conflict as a territorial dispute, but both Brownback and Nicholson have clarified that the conflict is more one of ideology and religion.  

With this striking call to action, Nicholson added, “There’s room for the United States to play a very constructive role in helping these different parties, both of which are our allies, to reach a peaceful and just solution to end the conflict.” 

https://www.persecution.org/2023/06/22/brownback-calls-for-armenia-support/

Russia’s military apparatus has been stretched thin by Ukraine’s counteroffensive. The latest setback happened when Ukrainian missiles damaged a bridge that serves as an important supply corridor for Russian forces. Russia’s vulnerability could also impact the Nagorno-Karabakh region, a territory that has had Armenia and Azerbaijan at odds for years.

Armenia has kept Azerbaijan at bay in part because of its ties with Russia, but Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan says that could change if the Ukraine War ends badly for Vladimir Putin.

Excerpted from Peter’s June 21 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

Armenia and Azerbaijan have some “history” together … and not in a good way. As the Ukraine War ramps up and stress is added to the Russian system, will we see the Armenians and Azerbaijanis creating some new history?

This conflict boils down to ethnic and religious differences and a shared desire to control the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. While both sides have proven their lack of skill on the battlefield, Armenia has been able to deter Azerbaijani assaults thanks to their “partnership” with Russia.

For the past 30 years, we haven’t seen much movement from Azerbaijan; this is to avoid jeopardizing their oil exports and risk retaliations from the Russians. But as Russia becomes overcommitted in its war on Ukraine, we might see some movement on this front.

The territories across the globe that have benefited from a Russian presence are all in a precarious situation. As soon as one domino falls, so will the rest … and the entire global position of the Russian Federation could be wrapped up in a matter of months. But will it be Azerbaijan that falls that first domino?

Watch the video at 

By Samantha Barnes, International Banker

According to figures announced in late March by its National Statistical Committee (NSC), Armenia’s economy grew by a stellar 10.9 percent during January and February compared with the same two-month period in 2022. February alone experienced a 6.5-percent expansion from January’s levels and 11.3-percent growth from 12 months earlier. And with this buoyant performance having already followed 2022’s bumper year of more than 11-percent growth, one may be inclined to conclude that the Armenian economy is proving to be an unmitigated success story. But with tensions with neighbouring Azerbaijan still decidedly heightened and no end in sight to the war in Ukraine, the outlook is still highly uncertain.

Much of Armenia’s economic success can be attributed to its proximity to Russia. Indeed, the diminutive former Soviet state located in the Caucasus region, bordering Turkey, experienced an economic boom as it took in hundreds of thousands of affluent Russian migrants escaping military conscription in their home country in both late February 2022 as the war commenced and September following Russia’s massive military-mobilisation drive. Indeed, Armenia ended up being among the chief recipients of Russian migrants, with data from the Migration Service of Armenia recording 372,086 Russian citizens arriving during the first half of 2022. A September survey of 2,000 Russian migrants by Eurasia-focused research and security organisation PONARS (Program on New Approaches to Research and Security) disclosed that of the initial wave of Russian migrants, 24.9 percent fled to Turkey, 23.4 percent to Georgia, and 15.1 percent ended up in Armenia.

As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted, these waves of Russian migrants invariably boosted domestic consumption in the recipient nations, with the Armenian economy among the most significant beneficiaries given the large influx relative to the local population of just 2.8 million people. “Guided by sound macroeconomic policies amid significant global and regional challenges, Armenia is on course to achieve growth of about 11 percent in 2022, in part driven by large inflows of external income, capital, and labor into the country,” the IMF stated in November, also citing fiscal overperformance and appreciation of the Armenian currency, the dram, as key factors in lowering Armenia’s public debt from 60.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2021 to an expected 51 percent last year.

Inflation has been a concern as a result of this surprise injection into Armenia’s economy, however. OBC(Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso) Transeuropa, a think tank co-funded by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the European Union (EU) that is focused on Southeast Europe, Turkey and the Caucasus, noted in an October article that real-estate prices had sharply risen since the first wave of Russian migrants arrived shortly after the outbreak of war, with prices per square metre of apartment space in capital city Yerevan climbing over the previous year’s by an average of 109,000 drams (about €273). “Each human flow contributes to price fluctuations,” Armenian economist Samson Grigoryan noted, as quoted by OBC. “It also has its positive side—it contributes to the development of the regions—because Yerevan cannot accommodate everyone, so others will also go to other regions of the country.”

Armenia’s engagement with Russia is also the subject of growing consternation from Western countries intent on punishing Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, with US and European officials suggesting that it is being supported by former Soviet satellite states to bypass the economic sanctions levied against Moscow. A recent article from The Telegraph noted that the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member nations are operating as transit points through which materials and technologies for weapons production are passing.

“The most absurd is Armenia, whose 13 percent economic expansion in only 12 months makes it a candidate for [the] third-fastest growing economy in the world,” the article contended, noting that exports from Germany to Armenia in 2022 increased from €178 million to €505 million. “That’s from just one EU country. Exports from Armenia to the EU in the same twelve months doubled from 753 million euros to 1.3 billion euros. With a population of barely three million and a GDP per capita of less than a tenth of the average Briton, these are impossible numbers. But they are real.”

The New York Times also reported on April 18 the findings of a document from the US Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS), which stated that Armenia imported 515 percent more chips and processors from the United States and 212 percent more from the European Union last year compared to 2021. But the document also noted that Armenia then exported 97 percent of those same products to Russia. And by mid-March, Armenia’s minister of the economy, Vahan Kerobyan, reportedly confirmed to Russian daily news outlet Vedomosti that the two countries had completely stopped mutual calculations in US dollars and euros, given the pronounced volatility the ruble has experienced against these currencies over the last year or so. Instead, the dram became the preferred currency for expanded Russian-Armenian trade during this period.

In its defence, Armenia insists that such moves are due to the two countries operating within the same customs and economic zone, which thus facilitates the free movement of goods between them. “We are talking with our American and European partners, explaining what the basis of trade of which products are and whether we will not violate the EAEU agreement,” Kerobyan recently explained to reporters. “In fact, we are able to explain that the actions taken by Armenian companies are not aimed at putting Armenia under secondary sanctions, but stem from the economic and labor interests of our country,” he added, insisting that Armenia is trying to maintain the provisions of the EAEU free-trade agreement that is in place between member nations of the Eurasian Economic Union and maximise opportunities for companies whilst ensuring that domestic companies do not fall foul of secondary sanctions.

Armenia may also point to Russia’s lack of material support in the ongoing conflict with neighbouring Azerbaijan as further evidence in its defence against accusations of improper collusion. Tensions have remained elevated over the pro-Armenia breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh since December, after Azerbaijan implemented a blockade on the road connecting Armenia to the disputed territory, which subsequently experienced significant shortages of essential goods. And despite a Russian-brokered ceasefire being agreed upon in 2020 following an outbreak of hostilities between the two parties, as well as the recent introduction of an EU monitoring mission to stabilise the region, unrest is likely to continue breaking out periodically—especially given Azerbaijan’s increasing importance as a natural-gas supplier to the EU—that could prove a significant downside risk to Armenia’s longer-term economic prospects.

Nonetheless, Armenia’s growth outlook remains positive on the whole, with the Central Bank of Armenia and Fitch Ratings both predicting recently that the economy will expand this year, albeit more modestly than in 2022, by 5.8 percent and 6.1 percent, respectively. Fitch also sees a further slowdown in 2024 to 4.7 percent. “Growth will be driven by personal consumption, relatively stable exports (notably to Russia as Armenia replaces import sources that have become disrupted by sanctions) and an expected increase in public investment,” the ratings agency stated on February 10.

The IMF similarly sees economic growth decelerating in 2023 to 4 to 5 percent due to “weaker external demand and tighter global financial conditions”, whilst also expecting CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation to converge gradually to the central bank’s 4-percent target over the medium term with the support of tight monetary policy and the waning impact of external shocks. “The current account deficit, which has widened with the rapid growth of the economy, is expected to gradually narrow to around 5 percent of GDP. The risks to the outlook are mainly external,” the IMF added in its November outlook.

Beyond the raw numbers, moreover, it is also worth highlighting the efforts Armenia is making to improve the quality of its relatively modest economy, particularly regarding sustainability. On March 21, for example, the CirculUP! project was launched in the country, led by Impact Hub Network, which is a global network of locally run impact innovation incubators, accelerators, coworking spaces and non-profit organisations, along with Armenia’s own social-innovation incubator Impact Hub Yerevan and the Environment and Health NGO (ENVI&Health) that is funded by the European Union in Armenia. The project seeks to trigger a systemic shift within Armenia towards a circular economy, with the official press release noting that financial support of €525,000 will be provided to start-ups, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and community service organisations (CSOs) working towards circularity in Armenia over the next three years.

Baku on Thursday denied claims made earlier in the day by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan during a Cabinet meeting in Yerevan that Azerbaijan is "illegally blocking" the Lachin route.

A statement by the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry said it reminded Armenia that it was provocations by the Armenian military that obstructed the safe passages from the Lachin checkpoint, where it said it created “appropriate conditions” for the “transparent and safe passage” of Armenian residents of the Karabakh region.

“It seems that Armenia is resorting to such provocations because it is deprived of the illegal activities it carried out through the Lachin road after 2020, as well as because it is concerned about the positive approach demonstrated by Azerbaijan during the passage of the Armenian residents,” the statement said.

The statement rejected the Armenian claims that there is a "humanitarian crisis in the region" and Yerevan’s calls for the introduction of an "international mechanism" in dialogues between Baku and local Armenian residents, which the statement said is “an internal matter of Azerbaijan.”

“Azerbaijan is determined to implement relevant necessary measures for the reintegration of Armenian residents, and the invitation addressed to Armenian residents for the purpose of discussing these and other issues is still valid,” the statement further said.

The statement also said that Armenia’s use of this issue for “manipulation” and to obstruct the peace process in the region is “unacceptable.”

Relations between the two former Soviet republics have been tense since 1991 when the Armenian military occupied Nagorno-Karabakh – a territory internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan and seven adjacent regions.

In the fall of 2020 in 44 days of fighting, Azerbaijan liberated several cities, villages, and settlements from Armenian occupation. The Russian-brokered peace agreement is celebrated as a triumph in Azerbaijan.

Despite ongoing peace agreement talks between Baku and Yerevan, tensions between the neighboring countries have escalated in recent months due to the Lachin corridor, which serves as the sole land route providing Armenia access to Karabakh.

Experts note that the conflict and still-volatile security may be behind the rise of a skewed ratio between boys and girls.

YEREVAN BASED JOURNALIST

Ani hopes that the child she is expecting means a new start. The 48-year-old’s world was shattered on the autumn day in 2020 when her 19-year-old son was killed fighting in the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorny Karabakh region. Desperate to fill the void he left she sought to replace him with another child – and she wanted it to be a boy. 

“One year later I got pregnant, naturally, but I lost the baby due to complications. The fetus was developed enough, it was a girl,” Ani (not her real name) told IWPR. She cannot say whether she would have carried on with the pregnancy if she had known the baby was a girl. “I had double feelings: I wished it was a boy, it turned out to be a girl…”

Ani fell into depression but was determined to have another child. In 2022 she applied to the state programme that provides free in-vitro fertilisation for parents who lost children during the 2020 war. 

Ani’s desire for a boy is not isolated. Nearly 4,000 Armenian servicemen died in the 44 day-war and many grieving parents have sought to have boys to replace their dead children. Experts maintain that the post-war trauma may have played a role in the rise of Armenia’s sex imbalance at birth after years of stability.

In 2022, the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia recorded 112 boys for 100 girls, up from 109 boys to 100 girls registered in 2021. The standard biological ratio isof 105 boys to 100 girls, according to data from the UN Population Fund (UNFPA). 

“Before the war we had a pretty good index, we had a decrease every year,” Health Minister Anahit Avanesyan told IWPR. “Unfortunately, after the war, there was a certain change again in the society’s mood and perception.”

Armenia has been battling against high rate of prenatal sex selection for decades. The conservative, patriarchal society values boys over girls and with technology allowing the sex of the baby to be known at an early stage, some families opt for an abortion in the case of a female fetus. 

The sex ratio at birth started rising in the early 1990s as the country became independent: it peaked in 2000 with 120 boys for 100 girls and in 2013 was still 114 male births per 100 female. Selective abortions are thought to have left the country short of an estimated 80,000 girls.

“It is a problem of national mentality; the society, both here and in the wider region, favours sons over daughters as the continuation of the family,” psychologist Sona Hovakimyan told IWPR.

Awareness campaigns and measures like announcing the sex of the baby at a later stage managed to slowly contain the imbalance, which dropped in the late 2010s. Then, in 2020, the war broke out, leaving a country traumatised.

According to psychologist Hovakimyan, mothers who have lost a son may seek to have a male child to fill the gap left by their dead child. 

“When having an abortion, a woman goes through all the stages of loss again but it is the woman's decision whether she is ready to take that step or not. In that decision, it is very important for a woman to know her possibilities, to understand her fears,” she noted.

UNFPA research in 2022 showed that the preference for boys over girls is on the rise in Armenia. 

About 91 per cent said that “sons continue the lineage” and 83 per cent stated that “boys are the defenders of the motherland”. In a similar poll conducted by UNFPA in 2017, respondents were 64 per cent and 17 per cent respectively. 

The defeat in the 2020 war and the increasingly volatile security situation along the border with Azerbaijan are thought to be behind the sharp increase of respondents who see sons as “defenders of the motherland”.

CONTINUING THE FAMILY NAME

“The issue of gender selection deepens even more when the family is expecting a third child,” says Zaruhi Tonoyan, coordinator of the UNFPA’s programme to combat gender discrimination. “In fact, from the second child on, families prefer to have a child whose gender will differ from the gender of the first, also considering that the birth rate is decreasing.”

This is what happened in Alla’s family. 

“My firstborn, my daughter, is five years old. My husband adores her, he says he wouldn't exchange her for 1,000 boys. But his family dreamed of a grandson and he kept saying that our second child had to be a boy,” Alla (not her real name), told IWPR. The 28-year-old lives in a village in the eastern region of Gegharkunik, which borders Azerbaijan -the UNFPA research showed that the region has the highest prevalence of families favouring boys over girls. 

Alla’s in-laws repeatedly told her that a woman’s duty was to give birth to a boy child to continue the family name.

“The topic was discussed so much that I was inclined to think that our second child ought to be a boy. When I got pregnant two years ago, I found out it was a girl… We were not expecting a girl. A boy was needed,” she recalled, adding, “I don’t want to talk too much about it. I had an abortion. I had to.”

After the abortion, Alla developed health problems; doctors said it will take her body a long time to recover.  

“I committed a sin, I did it without realising it. I've gone to 1,000 doctors, but I can't get pregnant. God punished me,” she said as she showed a small shrine she had set up in a corner of her room. She said that her day starts and ends with a prayer, in the hope “to be forgiven and have another child”.

In 2013, UNFPA recorded that the imbalance was particularly dramatic for third births: the level of 173 sons born for every 100 daughters was the world’s highest.

Experts maintain that the root of the problem needed to be addressed.

“We should learn to value girls, women should be valued in society. We need to have conversations about it, so that we can prevent the issue of gender-based selection,” Tonoyan said. “We are taking a step back. We had a positive index, which we need to achieve again by continuing awareness activities regarding this issue, as well as capacity building among healthcare workers, who should provide proper counseling to women for the latter to make informed decisions.”

Ethnographer Hranush Kharatyan agreed. 

“There is a need to change the mentality, to value the role of women. Gender equality wil make the issue [sex selection at birth] disappear,” he told IWPR.

In Yerevan, Ani says that she is now ready for a girl. 

“The new child is the beginning of a new life and will not be a replacement for my lost boy… You know, it is very difficult to be honest with yourself,” she continued. “But you have to be. When you are very honest, you realise that you are selfish, that you want nature to adapt to you and give you what you want. However, this is a matter that should not be interfered with. A girl or a boy, the child must be born.”

https://iwpr.net/global-voices/post-war-trauma-prompts-armenias-sex-imbalance