Category: 2023

Georgia Might Become a New Mediator between Azerbaijan and Armenia

Mary Lazarian
Modern Diplomacy
Oct 13 2023

Published

 15 hours ago 

on

 

By

 Naghi Ahmadov

On October 8, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev paid a working visit to Georgia and met with the Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili. During the meeting various issues relating to the strategic cooperation between the two countries were discussed. Cooperation in the areas of energy, transport, and logistics was among them. Following the one-on-one meeting, the leaders made joint statements for the press. Commenting on the results of President Aliyev’s visit PM Garibashvili noted that Azerbaijan and Georgia are exploring joint opportunities in trade, energy, sustainable and infrastructure development.

One of the important points that the leaders touched on was the normalization between Azerbaijan and Armenia and Georgia’s possible role in the mediation process.  “Georgia has always held a neutral, unbiased position in this process and we stand ready to make our humble contribution through mediation or facilitation – establishment of a friendly format in general,” said by the Prime Minister of Georgia, Irakli Garibashvili adding that “Tbilisi is always ready to take part in this process. Our future should be peaceful, stable and we – all three countries of the South Caucasus – should be able to decide on our own about the regional affairs and our development ahead.”

In response to this issue, President Aliyev stated: “We must work hard on the peace treaty to be signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan. If we succeed in that, and I hope we will, then a completely new political situation will emerge in the South Caucasus”. He further claimed that the South Caucasus countries can start cooperating in a trilateral format in many fields – transport, energy security, trade, mutual investment. Ilham Aliyev, in his speech, reminded that several countries and international organizations are in the role of facilitators in the process of normalization. However, according to President Aliyev, Georgia should participate in the normalization of relations between Baku and Yerevan as it holds an unbiased position regarding the territorial integrity of the countries. He also emphasized that if Armenia expresses consent, then bilateral and trilateral meetings will immediately can begin in Georgia.

During the last 30 years, Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict has sadly turned the region into a hostage of the interests of great powers. Now the fact is that the main problem of the South Caucasus has already been resolved. Azerbaijan has managed to completely restore its territorial integrity and sovereign rights over the Karabakh region. Thus, the major element of Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict – “Nagorno-Karabakh” issue which prevented the signing of the peace agreement no longer exists.

It is worth mentioning that until now, the negotiation process has taken place in different places through the mediation of Russia and the West. The later one is called the “Brussels format” and mainly involves meetings mediated by EU Council President Charles Michel. It is true that, at different times, within that format quadrilateral meetings were also held in the United States personally with the mediation of State Secretary Antony Blinken, as well as five-party meetings with the participation of France and Germany. Unfortunately, all these formats have practically failed in achieving a peace deal mainly owing to geopolitical competition among the major mediators that want to dictate their interests in the South Caucasus.

Such platforms, where Russia and the West, which have belligerent relations, are jointly represented, cannot play any role other than the function of geopolitical division. The past proved it. Therefore, it should be noted that due to the France’s destructive position, recently President Aliyev had canceled his visit to Granada, Spain, where a meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was to be held with the participation of leaders of the European Union, France, and Germany.

However, Georgia is relatively a small country that does not involve geopolitical ambitions. Both historical-cultural and geographical proximity should be specially evaluated too. Moreover, Tbilisi is no stranger to the negotiation process. Some time ago, the meeting of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, Jeyhun Bayramov and Ararat Mirzoyan took place in Georgia.

In this regard, the continuation of the negotiation process in Georgia and the organization of discussions around the peace agreement will definitely change the landscape in the South Caucasus. Unlike the parties that focus on their foreign policy interests rather than solving the problem, Georgia can host thematic negotiations and substantive discussions more effectively.

Georgian Vice Parliament Speaker Gia Volski also said that Tbilisi could “successfully facilitate” talks for peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia due to its “very high reputation”.

Another point that should be regarded in favor of Georgia as a mediator is the fact that many people of Armenian and Azerbaijani origins live in harmony in Georgia. This is an important factor makes Georgia the best venue for negotiations between the parties.

As well known that Azerbaijanis are the single largest ethnic minority in Georgia and they live compactly in five districts in Georgia. Also, ethnic Georgians living in Azerbaijan preserve their identity like other ethnic groups. This itself plays a big role in successfully establishing bilateral relations. To some extent, this model can be applied between Azerbaijan and Armenia after ethnically cleansed Azerbaijani people’s right to return ensured.

To conclude, the South Caucasus is about to enter a new stage. Now the region has got a chance to start a period of peace and stability. If the parties succeed in this endeavour, it will pave the way for the development prospects of the South Caucasus. And as a result, the entire region will become a different geo-economic space. In this regard, Baku sees the current situation as a real opportunity and a decisive moment not only for Azerbaijan, but also for the whole region to establish a new regional order.

In brief, considering the fact that the physical proximity to the conflict zone is a crucial factor affecting Georgia’s genuine interest in peace and urging it to take on specific responsibilities, its mediation initiative must be supported by the international community. As Azerbaijan has already positively responded to this offer, the ball is now in Armenia’s court.

Introducing Club Storica: A Journey Through Armenian Wine Culture

Emil Karabekian
Benszinga
Oct 13 2023
byPRNewswire

U.S. based importer Storica Wines is proud to announce the launch of Club Storica, an exclusive membership program designed to take adventurous enthusiasts on an extraordinary tasting journey through the vibrant world of Armenian wine.

BOSTON, Oct. 12, 2023 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ — U.S. based importer Storica Wines is proud to announce the launch of Club Storica, an exclusive membership program designed to take adventurous enthusiasts on an extraordinary tasting journey through the vibrant world of Armenian wine.

As referenced in the upcoming documentary SOMM: Cup of Salvation, Armenia has a history of winemaking dating over 6,000 years. Now in the midst of a remarkable wine renaissance, Storica is proud to celebrate this legacy and renewal by offering an unparalleled wine experience that showcases the very best of Armenian wine culture.

This unique club showcases the elegance and diversity of Armenian still and sparkling wines – produced with local indigenous varieties such as the majestic red Areni or elegant white Voskehat – allowing members to enjoy carefully curated selections, at home or beyond.

Shipped three times per year, it offers three distinct membership levels, each named in homage to the Armenian language:

  • Pokr: meaning "small", this package, inspired by inspired by the smaller peak of Mount Ararat – Pokr Masis – offers an assortment of 4 bottles for $120/shipment with 10% off.
  • Mets: meaning "large", this package, inspired by inspired by the larger peak of Mount Ararat - Mets Masis – offers an expansive 6 bottles, at $160/shipment with 15% off.
  • Amenamets – meaning "biggest", represents Mt. Ararat, the symbol of Armenia, and the landing point of Noah's Ark. It is the most evocative visual feature of Armenia's rich landscape. This offers a deliciously comprehensive 12 bottle journey through the finest Armenian wines. $280/shipment, with 25% off.

Why Join the Storica Wine Club?

  • Discover Armenia's Unique _expression_: Explore exceptional wines from indigenous grape varieties grown on intense, high-elevation terroirs.
    • Curated Selections: Each shipment is meticulously arranged to offer a diverse and delightful tasting experience. Alternatively, members can curate their own selection.
    • Exclusive Benefits: Members enjoy exclusive access to limited-edition wines, discounts on Storica products, and invitations to special in-person and virtual events.
    • Educational Resources: Enhance wine knowledge with informative tasting notes, pairing suggestions, and stories about Armenian winemaking heritage.

    Join Storica as they embark on the renaissance of Armenia's ancient, beautiful wine producing culture. Sip the spirit of Armenia in every bottle! Visit https://www.storicawines.com/club-storica/

About Storica

Storica Wines is an Armenian wine import company that features producers leading Armenia's wine renaissance and celebrating its rich winemaking heritage. Our wines feature indigenous grapes that have been grown in these soils for over 6,000 years. They mirror our point of view and the country itself: full of life and resiliency.

Media Contact
Jennifer OFlanagan, FeastPR, 1 9176587641, [email protected], www.feastpr.com

 

Churches to EU: Armenian people from Nagorno-Karabakh need help

Emil Lazarian
Oct 13 2023

13-10-2023

Eastern Europe

The Conference of European Churches (CEC) and the World Council of Churches (WCC) knock on the door of the European Union. The churches are shocked about the Armenian exodus from Nagorno-Karabakh.

On Thursday, the two groups sent a joint letter to Josep Borrell, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, and Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission. The letter was signed by CEC General Secretary Dr Jørgen Skov Sørensen and WCC General Secretary Rev. Prof. Dr Jerry Pillay.

Churches Armenia help refugees after “ethnic cleansing” in Nagorno-Karabakh
04-10-2023
Eastern Europe

Two weeks ago, the 120,000 inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh left the province under pressure from Azerbaijan. This seems to be the end of Armenian Christians’ centuries-long inhabitation of the region. Karabakh has many ancient churches and monasteries. The fear is that the Muslim country Azerbaijan will not respect this tradition.

Another problem is that more than 100,000 refugees are in Armenia now, while Armenia is quite a poor country.

The church organisations “appeal” to the EU to provide “immediate and sustained humanitarian support for the refugees, especially the most vulnerable and the poorer members of the community who still lack adequate assistance to meet their basic needs for food, shelter and medical care, and for education for their children.”

Concretely, the letter asks the EU to give money for humanitarian assistance in Armenia itself.

European Christians feel solidarity with fleeing Armenians
03-10-2023
Eastern Europe

Another request is for the EU to pay attention to fears that Azerbaijan will invade southern Armenia. “In this context, the role of the EU in Armenia takes on a much greater significance.”

CEC and the WCC thank the EU for what the Union has already done for Armenia. “A further key factor for future relations in the region will be how Azerbaijan now treats Armenian religious and cultural heritage in Nagorno-Karabakh.”

PACE calls on Azerbaijan to ‘prove its goodwill’ towards the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh

Mary Lazarian
Council of Europe
Oct 13 2023

PARLIAMENTARY ASSEMBLY SESSION STRASBOURG 13 OCTOBER 2023

PACE has called on Azerbaijan to “create a climate of trust and the material conditions” for Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh to be able to return to their homeland – including active steps to encourage and reassure them to do so.

In a resolution based on a report by Domagoj Hajduković (Croatia, SOC) following an urgent debate, the Assembly regretted the “long-standing and continuing failure on the part of the authorities of Azerbaijan to reassure the Armenian population of the region of their safety and the full respect of their rights”.

Almost the entire Armenian population of the region had left their ancestral homeland and fled to Armenia “out of a genuine threat of physical extinction, a long-standing policy of hatred in Azerbaijan towards Armenians, and a lack of trust in their future treatment”, the parliamentarians pointed out.

“It is not too late for Azerbaijan to redress the situation and prove its goodwill,” they said, noting Azerbaijan’s promises that the rights and freedoms of Armenian residents will be ensured, and its plans with respect to the reintegration of Armenian residents.

The Assembly also said the massive exodus of almost the entire Armenian population from the region had led to “allegations and reasonable suspicion that this can amount to ethnic cleansing”. Noting Azerbaijan’s strong statements refuting such allegations and suspicions, it called on the authorities to “spare no efforts in proving in deeds and words that this is not the case”.

Long-Standing Ties Between Armenia and Russia Are Fraying Fast

Vanyan Gary
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Oct 13 2023
Russia failed to stop Azerbaijan’s attack on Nagorno-Karabakh and the flight of Karabakh Armenians. Consequently, Armenia will be looking elsewhere for security guarantees.
Alexander Atasuntsev

The conflict in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh has not just ended in the worst possible way for Armenia, but for Russia, too. Despite Moscow’s bombastic rhetoric and its criticism of Armenia’s leaders, it’s clear that the failure of Russia’s peacekeeping efforts has jeopardized its long-term presence in the South Caucasus.

The 24 hours of fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh in September that resulted in the capitulation of Karabakh Armenian defense forces to Baku revealed that Azerbaijan was more wary of Western sanctions than Russian military might. Despite being formally allied within the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Yerevan will no longer be seeking security guarantees from Moscow.

Armenia is the only post-Soviet country where Russia’s influence has grown steadily since the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 1992, Russian border guards were stationed on Armenia’s borders with Iran and Turkey. In 1995, a large Russian military base was opened in Armenia’s second city of Gyumri. And in 2020, a Russian peacekeeping mission was deployed to Nagorno-Karabakh after the Second Karabakh War.

Russia’s peacekeeping mandate in Nagorno-Karabakh was unclear, however, with its viability resting only on Russia’s continuing political and military authority. In essence, it came down to both sides being unwilling to risk the death of a Russian soldier.

That all changed with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which has devoured the Kremlin’s military capabilities and destroyed much of its authority. By the fall of 2022, when Azerbaijan attacked Armenian territory, it was clear Moscow was not willing to intervene. And during the one-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, Moscow showed again that it was not prepared to risk a conflict with Baku (even following the death of Russian soldiers).

Moscow’s attempts to justify its blunders haven’t been convincing. Of course, Russian officials are partially correct when they blame Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for renouncing Armenia’s territorial claims to Nagorno-Karabakh. But, at least formally, Armenia had never advanced such claims. More importantly, it’s unclear why such a statement by Pashinyan would annul Moscow’s guarantee to Karabakh Armenians. After all, Russia’s past recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as part of Georgia, and Transnistria as part of Moldova, did not prevent it from deploying peacekeepers to those regions.

The failure of Russia’s peacekeeping mission in Nagorno-Karabakh—which now looks likely to be wrapped up—puts into question its entire military presence in Armenia. Since the 1990s, that presence has been based on an alignment of interests between Moscow and Yerevan. Now these interests are rapidly diverging.

Up until 2020, it was customary to assume that Moscow’s goal in the South Caucasus was to preserve the status quo. That was why Yerevan looked for Russian help—which never materialized—during the Second Karabakh War. It’s still an open question whether Moscow could have done more to stop that conflict before it ended in a catastrophic defeat for the Armenians. If it could indeed have done more and chose not to, that was a big mistake, paving the way for Turkey to take on a bigger role in the region and leaving Armenia vulnerable.

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, all other regional issues—including those of the South Caucasus—have faded into the background for Moscow. Certainly, entering into a conflict with Azerbaijan and its main supporter, Turkey, would not bring Russia any closer to victory in Ukraine.

One option open to Russia could have been to increase arms exports to its ally Armenia, but Moscow needs all the weapons it can get for its war against Ukraine. Yerevan has even complained that Moscow is refusing to supply weapons for which it has already paid, forcing Armenia to turn to Indian suppliers instead. There have even been suggestions Armenia might buy Western arms.

Without security guarantees or arms supplies, there is little reason for Armenia to remain in the CSTO military alliance. Apart from joint military exercises, for many years the only reason for Yerevan to be a member of the CSTO was the option of buying Russian weapons at a discount.

It’s obvious that no country (not only Russia) can give Armenia a cast-iron security guarantee: any such guarantor would have to be ready to risk an armed conflict with Azerbaijan. But diplomatic tools can also serve as a restraining factor, and there are currently more of these available to the West than to Russia.

Unhappiness with Moscow has already pushed Yerevan to make several fateful decisions. In October, Armenia ratified the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which means that if Russian President Vladimir Putin visits Armenia, he will be arrested.

The idea of joining the ICC first arose following the Azerbaijani attack on Armenia in September 2022, and videos showing Azerbaijani soldiers executing Armenian prisoners. Back then, Yerevan said that ICC membership would be another lever over Baku. But when the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Putin in March, it must have been clear to Armenian officials how the Kremlin would react—and yet Armenia went ahead with the ratification.

Nor has Yerevan attempted to hide the real reasons for its decision, with Pashinyan stating: “We took the decision to ratify the Rome Statute when it became clear to us that the CSTO and the instruments of the Russian-Armenian strategic partnership were not enough to ensure Armenia’s external security.”

Moscow’s reaction was predictable, with Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov calling the ratification an “extremely hostile” step. In the following days, suppliers of Armenian brandy to Russia began to experience problems at customs.

In the past, Russia has blocked imports of goods to punish countries like Moldova and Georgia that it sees as pursuing a pro-Western course. But the tactic has never met with much success. If anything, it has had the opposite effect: Moldova received European Union candidate status in 2022, and Georgia could receive it later this year. It can’t be ruled out that Armenia will follow in their footsteps.

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/90768

By:
  • Alexander Atasuntsev

Aid agencies rush to support Nagorno-Karabakh refugees

Emil Lazarian
The Lancet
Oct 13 2023



  • Sharmila Devi
100 000 ethnic Armenians have been displaced after a military offensive by Azerbaijan. Sharmila Devi reports.
Aid agencies say that Armenia will face tremendous challenges in expanding health and other services for the more than 100 000 ethnic Armenians who fled a lightning offensive launched by Azerbaijan on Sept 19, and which recaptured the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave.
The refugees had previously suffered more than 9 months of blockade by Azerbaijan after it closed off the main road to Armenia from the enclave, called Artsakh by ethnic Armenians, few of whom appeared to be left there. Aid agencies are now rushing to help Armenian authorities, who vowed to look after the refugees.
Many of the refugees without relatives in Armenia were provided with temporary accommodation in hotels, hostels, and social centres. The Armenian Government also committed to giving each refugee a one-off cash payment of US$250 for emergency supplies such as blankets and medication, and subsequent payments of $140 per month for 6 months for rent and utilities.
“It's a difficult and unpredictable situation after the displacement and attack on Nagorno-Karabakh”, Iren Sargsyan, Senior Humanitarian Education Adviser for Save the Children, who is Armenian, told The Lancet. “I’m resilient and have worked in many emergencies but it's really difficult when you’ve relocated back and live here. The Armenian government and society are welcoming and supporting people as much as they can but they will need help in the long-term especially for housing and employment”, she said.
Urgent needs among the new arrivals, besides shelter, include treatment for chronic diseases such as hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, and cancer. WHO said it was providing urgent medical support including medicines for non-communicable diseases to cover 3 months of treatment for up to 50 000 people. It also dispatched burn kits after the explosion of a fuel depot on Sept 25 on the route taken by the refugees to Armenia that killed at least 170 people and injured 200 more. WHO said it would also support the Armenian Government to integrate more than 300 doctors and 1200 nurses who had fled the Karabakh region as of Sept 30 into the Armenian health system.
“At the first major town the refugees are fleeing to [Goris], I saw an immense outpouring of solidarity from the local Armenian community and volunteers, who are doing all they can to provide food, water and shelter”, Robb Butler, Special Envoy for WHO's Regional Director, said in a statement on Oct 1. “But you see the despair on many of the faces of the displaced. They have left everything behind, their homes, their belongings, the graves of their loved ones.”
Among the refugees were an estimated 2070 pregnant women and almost 700 were expected to give birth over the next 3 months, said the UN Population Fund, the UN's sexual and reproductive health agency. 66% of refugees said they had not had enough food in the last 3 months during the blockade of Nagorno–Karabakh, whereas 45% said they had reduced either the number of meals or portion size, Ketevan Khashidze, Chief Executive Officer of Care Caucasus, part of Care International, told The Lancet.
“The influx of people was very sudden and at the start, there was only sporadic distribution of winter clothes and mattresses”, she said. “Given the overwhelming crisis, the government is now managing but support will be needed for the long-term, including for host families. We know from our experience in Georgia and elsewhere in the region that these crises have a very long-term effect.”
Armenia had registered almost 86 000 of the refugees as of Oct 3. It was not known exactly how many ethnic Armenians had remained in Nagorno–Karabakh, which had been de facto separate since it fought a war to secede from Azerbaijan in the early 1990s. Azerbaijan retook much of the area in 2020. The International Committee of the Red Cross said the Karabakh town of Khankendi, known as Stepanakert among Armenians, was close to empty and that its priority was to find those “extremely vulnerable cases, elderly, mentally disabled people, the people left without anybody”, said Marco Succi, Head of Rapid Deployment of the International Committee of the Red Cross, in a statement. “The medical personnel have left. The water board authorities left. The director of the morgue…the stakeholders we were working with before, have also left. This scene is quite surreal”, he said.
Russia had peacekeepers in the region, but it refused to intervene when Azerbaijan launched its offensive in Nagorno–Karabakh. On Oct 3, the Armenian Parliament voted to join the International Criminal Court, which has issued an arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin. Western countries have pledged to support Armenia.
Published:

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(23)02275-4

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)02275-4/fulltext

Turkish Press: Putin says Karabakh ‘irrevocably’ became part of Azerbaijan in 2022

Ani Tigranian
Anadolu Agency, Turkey
Oct 13 2023
Elena Teslova  

MOSCOW

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that Karabakh "irrevocably" became part of Azerbaijan in 2022 when Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed the relevant declaration at a meeting in Prague.

"It (Karabakh) became a part of Azerbaijan definitively last year, in November, at a meeting in Prague. Prime Minister (Nikol) Pashinyan made a statement that radically changed the status of Karabakh, it determined the status of Karabakh," Putin said at a news conference in Kyrgyzstan's capital Bishkek.

Russia is ready to facilitate the resumption of negotiations on signing a peace treaty between Baku and Yerevan, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan know this, he noted.

"It seems to me that this is quite possible (signing a peace treaty), I don't see any problem that could prevent the conclusion of a peace treaty now, after the events in Karabakh," he said.

Commenting on media reports claiming that Ukraine delivered weapons to Hamas, Putin said: "I doubt that there were arms shipments from Ukraine, but I have no doubt that there is a leak of weapons from Ukraine. There is no doubt that weapons supplied to Ukraine go to black market."

"The level of corruption in Ukraine is known, it is very high. The black market develops in such a way that there are many who want to buy, and in Ukraine, there are many who want to sell," he said.

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/putin-says-karabakh-irrevocably-became-part-of-azerbaijan-in-2022/3018909

Fears linger in Armenia of Azerbaijani invasion

Emil Lazarian
eurasianet
Oct 13 2023
Fin DePencier 

Armenia's ambassador to the European Union, Tigran Balayan, said in an interview published on October 6 that Azerbaijan was actively preparing an invasion within weeks.

But on October 11 Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told Armenian Public TV that that risk was "extremely low," and that there was no military buildup on either side of the border. 

The mixed messaging from Yerevan is puzzling, Balyan could be trying to create a sense of urgency, while Pashinyan tries to reduce tensions. 

The concern surrounds Azerbaijan's aim of realizing its "Zangezur Corridor" project to get land access to its exclave Nakhchivan through Armenian territory.

Famed Caucasus researcher Thomas de Waal recently described the corridor as the "next big issue," saying that Russia, Azerbaijan and Turkey all have their own interests in its creation – and that it may be taken by force. 

Armenia agreed to facilitate movement between mainland Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan when it signed the Russia-brokered ceasefire that ended the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War on November 10, 2020, whose ninth point reads: 

"All economic and transport connections in the region shall be unblocked. The Republic of Armenia shall guarantee the security of transport connections between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic in order to arrange unobstructed movement of persons, vehicles and cargo in both directions. The Border Guard Service of the Russian Federal Security Service [FSB] shall be responsible for overseeing the transport connections."

This language immediately gave rise to differing interpretations. For Armenia, it was a commitment to open up road and rail links. It also had implications for the Lachin corridor that connected Armenia with the then-Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh region. 

For Azerbaijan, at least at first, the demand was for a seamless corridor running through Armenia's southern Syunik Region that was beyond Armenian sovereignty. 

But Baku softened its stance this February, when President Ilham Aliyev suggested the establishment of Armenian checkpoints on either end of the would-be Zangezur Corridor, while Azerbaijan would set up a checkpoint on the Lachin road connecting Armenia to Karabakh.

It was widely seen as Azerbaijan deprioritizing the corridor in favor of its real strategic goal of establishing full control over Karabakh.

Two months later, Azerbaijan unilaterally set up a checkpoint at Lachin, effectively formalizing the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh that government-sponsored activists had been staging since December.

Then, last month, came Baku's lightning offensive to retake all of Nagorno-Karabakh and the consequent emptying of the region's 100,000-some Armenian population.

Image

(Fin DePencier)

Now that the Karabakh issue is off the table, the question is, how much of a priority is the Zangezur corridor for Azerbaijan, and what is it willing to do to attain that goal? 

Recent moves by Azerbaijani leaders suggest it's not a matter of immediate concern. 

Baku is now pursuing an alternate corridor through Iran, whose territory has traditionally formed the main overland route from Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan. Prior to the 2020 war, the route started in eastern Azerbaijan, forcing Azerbaijanis to drive hundreds of kilometers through Iranian territory before reaching Nakhchivan. The new route will be considerably shorter, as it starts near the Armenian border, in Zangilan, a territory Azerbaijan recaptured in 2020.

Tehran has always vociferously opposed the Zangezur Corridor idea, repeatedly warning since the 2020 Karabakh war that it would not tolerate any changes to regional borders or the establishment of a "pan-Turkic" or "NATO" corridor along its northern frontier.

UK-based Azerbaijani analyst Fuad Shahbazov believes there has been a genuine policy shift from Baku.

"With the new transit route between Azerbaijan and Iran, the Zangezur Corridor project will shortly be implemented without Armenia's Syunik province," he wrote for BNE Intellinews, giving credence to Azerbaijani assurances that it respects Armenia's territorial integrity and does not plan to invade.

And some believe that, while the EU and U.S. did nothing to stop Azerbaijan from retaking Karabakh, an invasion of Armenia would jeopardize Baku's relations with the West. 

Nerses Kopalyan, an Armenian security analyst, told the EVN report podcast recently that the aim of the visit to Armenia by Samantha Power, the head of USAID, in the wake of Azerbaijan's takeover of Karabakh was "to make sure that Azerbaijan doesn't attack Armenia proper. This was the United States signaling to Azerbaijan."

But many in Armenia remain apprehensive. Azerbaijan made several incursions into Armenian territory since the 2020 war and currently holds an estimated 215 square kilometers of its territory. Azerbaijan has faced no consequences for these incursions, including the largest one, in September last year.

Baku continues to speak with strategic ambiguity about "Western Azerbaijan," the notion that all or some of the Republic of Armenia's territory is actually Azerbaijani. Baku has intermittently made explicit territorial claims, and at other times said that Azerbaijanis must be allowed to return to the land, regardless of who rules it.

And Yerevan similarly has reasons not to trust the intentions of two other regional players: its ostensible strategic ally, Russia, and Azerbaijan's strategic ally, Turkey. 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in remarks to his cabinet early this week, said, "If Armenia honors its commitments, specifically the opening of the Zangezur corridor, then Turkey will step-by-step normalize relations."

That could be seen as an effort to tie the Armenia-Turkey normalization process to the opening of the Zangezur Corridor, but Ankara's exact position and understanding of the corridor are hard to discern, according to Benyamin Poghosyan, a senior research fellow at Applied Policy Research Institute of Armenia.

In an interview with Eurasianet, Poghosyan also spoke about Armenian-Russian relations in the context of the Zangezur Corridor issue.  

He noted that Armenia's position on the route has also evolved over time, and become less amenable to Russian involvement. 

Indeed, in a recent interview, Pashinyan said he was ready to open "roads for Azerbaijan and Turkey," but that Armenia's sovereignty should be maintained and that "no third power should have control over any territory of Armenia."

"We are told that in the tripartite statement it is written that security should be ensured by Russia; I say that such a thing is not written," Pashinyan said. 

Russia disagrees, and says that Armenia should abide by the terms of the trilateral agreement in 2020, which does state its border troops be involved in "overseeing" the transport connections. 

For the Azerbaijani side, ambiguity in the text does not change the fundamental nature of that provision in the 2020 agreement. "If Armenia does not want a Russian presence, Azerbaijan views that as an Armenian-Russian problem. But regardless, Armenia promised the establishment of this route," says Poghosyan.

Poghosyan speculates how a new conflict could theoretically play out: Azerbaijan initiates a conflict, and then Russia puts a stop to it. "And Russia would tell Armenia: if you want us to stop Azerbaijan, simply you should do what you agreed to do in 2020," he said. 

That could then produce an ambiguous situation. "Some people will say that Russia pushed Armenia to provide the corridor, but someone else could say there was no mention of a corridor in the November 2020 document. So if Armenia is simply realizing this November 2020 statement; it isn't a corridor."

Aliyev may then say that Azerbaijan forced Armenia to provide a corridor. But Pashinyan could say no: this is not a corridor, because it will be under sovereign Armenian control. 

"Or Pashinyan could say that Russia, Turkey and Azerbaijan jointly forced Armenia to provide a corridor, and this is more proof that Russia is not an ally of Armenia, Russia is Armenia's adversary," Pogoshyan said.

Fin DePencier is a Canadian freelance journalist and photographer based in Yerevan.

https://eurasianet.org/fears-linger-in-armenia-of-azerbaijani-invasion

France contributes €1million to WFP for Armenia response efforts following NK exodus

Manouk Vasilian

 11:44,

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 14, ARMENPRESS. France has allocated €1 million for the United Nations World Food Programme’s (WFP) emergency response efforts in Armenia, WFP Armenia said on X.

“Proud to announce a generous €1million contribution from France to WFP's emergency response efforts in Armenia, following meeting between WFP Chief Cindy McCain and [French] Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna in NYC. Strengthening our partnership to support those in need,” WFP Armenia said.

French Ambassador to Armenia Olivier Decottignies said the funds will be directed to meet the needs of Armenia following the forced displacement of 100,000 Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenpress: Use of force is unacceptable – State Department on Armenia-Azerbaijan

Alex Nanijanian

 11:23,

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 14, ARMENPRESS. The US considers the use of force to be unacceptable and calls for direct dialogue between Yerevan and Baku to resolve the conflict, the US State Department said in response to a query from the Voice of America to comment on the POLITICO article that Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned US lawmakers that Azerbaijan may invade Armenia in coming weeks.

In response, the State Department said that “the US continues to cooperate with the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia on the highest levels, seeking dignified and lasting peace, where the rights of everyone are respected. The use of force is unacceptable, and direct dialogue is of important significance for the resolution of this long lasting conflict.”

The State Department also said that “the US supports the Armenian government’s efforts to help the displaced find shelter and comfort in Armenia in close cooperation with humanitarian organizations. We express our empathy to the displaced persons, realizing the shock and trauma they are going through, and what uncertainty they are facing.”

The US State Department added that Azerbaijan bears the responsibility to protect the peaceful civilians and guarantee humane treatment for all, including those who are suspected of war crimes.

“Azerbaijan also bears responsibility for its armed forces to comply with international law, including international humanitarian law, which regulates military operations, protection of peaceful civilians and humanitarian treatment against combatants.”