Category: 2023

On October 7, 2023, Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas launched operation “Al-Aqsa Flood,” aiming to destroy the Israeli army positions near Gaza and capture as many soldiers as possible, in order to exchange them with the almost 7,000 Palestinians detained in Israeli prisons. The operation created a shockwave in Israeli society, killing more than 1,000 soldiers and civilians. As a result, Israelis started indiscriminately bombing Gaza, killing civilians and threatening ethnic cleansing through a land invasion. The danger that the escalation will turn into a regional conflict involving Iran and Hezbollah is high. Such a step would surely have devastating consequences for the region and a domino effect beyond the Middle East. If Israel, which is Azerbaijan’s military partner and Iran’s regional enemy, was involved in a war of attrition in Gaza or a regional escalation, it would become isolated from the events in the South Caucasus. Given the tense situation in the South Caucasus, it is important to relate these events to the wider regional picture and assess future scenarios. In this article, I will briefly analyze the military escalation in Gaza, the position of key regional actors and how the war may shape developments in the South Caucasus.   

Damage in the Gaza Strip following Israeli bombing, October 10, 2023 (Wikimedia Commons)

From Israel’s Security Failure to Regional Escalation

Lebanese journalist Hasan Illaik said that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad were taken by surprise when they stumbled on security vacuums and poorly guarded military sites where dozens of Israeli soldiers and officers slept. Intelligence analysts argued that this reflected Israel’s intelligence failure. It is remarkable that the operation was highly secretive and disciplined. Even when Hamas militias conducted military exercises two weeks ago, Israel’s intelligence assessment was that “Hamas is training for what it does not dare to do.” Even some fighters from Hamas were not informed of the operation until a few minutes before the exact time. 

In the meantime, clashes broke out in south Lebanon between Israeli soldiers and armed groups. On October 9, Lebanon’s Hezbollah announced that three of its fighters were killed. It is yet unclear whether Hezbollah intends to directly join the war, as Hezbollah’s Executive Council Chief Hashem Safi al-Din said that the party will “not remain neutral in this battle.” This was repeated by Habib Fayad, a pro-Hezbollah regional expert, on Al Jadeed TV, who argued that the party would not remain neutral, just as it intervened in Syria in 2013 to prevent the collapse of Bashar al Assad, the backbone of the “axis of resistance.” If Hezbollah realizes that there is an existential threat against Hamas during the Israeli land operation, it will be forced to open a two-front war against Israel, pushing the American aircraft carrier near Israel to also intervene and sparking a regional war, Fayad argued. The Times of Israel, citing Hamas official Ali Barakeh from Beirut, also confirmed that Iran and Hezbollah would join only if Gaza is subjected to a “war of annihilation.” 

Some intelligence sources claimed that this operation was planned by Iran and Hezbollah, and Hamas fighters received logistic training. The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran and Hezbollah plotted the attack on Israel, as Hamas officials met with Hezbollah and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Beirut several weeks earlier. The Iranian side was represented by Ismail Qaani, the commander of the Quds Brigades of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Lebanese newspaper L’Orient Today mentioned that the “idea of infiltrating Israeli settlements had been brewing in the minds of Hezbollah leaders for years,” according to an anonymous source. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has often considered sending fighters to northern Israel to capture settlements and kidnap Israeli soldiers. 

During these trilateral meetings, officials reviewed the outcome of the Megiddo operation, when a Hezbollah fighter infiltrated northern Israel from Lebanon in March 2023. They allegedly drafted a plan to launch a cyberattack against Israeli ground and air defense systems and attacks by paratroopers and drones. More than 1,000 Hamas fighters would participate in this plan. Interestingly, this operation is very close to Hezbollah’s public military exercises in Aaramta, Lebanon, which also included motorcycles and undercover infiltration to overcome Israeli security barriers. 

Regionally, the Arab League condemned the war and called for a cessation of hostilities. Turkey and Russia warned Israel against engaging in land invasion. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin even warned Israel that a ground invasion of Gaza would “seriously harm the relationship between our countries.” Iran openly supported Hamas and its Foreign Minister visited Beirut, Damascus and Doha for consultations. Meanwhile, the U.S. and some Western allies are concerned that Israel will lose its deterrence power against Iran if the war is prolonged. Many fear that Gaza will turn into another lengthy war like in Ukraine and consume the West’s arms storage. Moreover, U.S. weapons shipments to Israel will shift Western attention from Ukraine, which is also in need of Western weapons to fight Russia. If the violence in Gaza spreads to the West Bank and within Israel, a weakened Israel mired in a “civil war” would weaken the U.S. position in Syria and the Persian Gulf. This serves Russian interests, which may wage a counteroffensive to retake key areas in Eastern Ukraine. The escalation also served Turkey, as the Turkish army started bombing Kurdish-populated areas in northeastern Syria amid the distraction of the U.S.  

Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu said that his response to the attack from Gaza “will change the Middle East,” arguing that the outcome of the war will change the balance of power in the region by destroying a key Iranian ally in Palestine. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) called for Palestinian civilians to evacuate Gaza to Egypt prior to Netanyahu’s plan to invade. Amid Israel’s preparation for land invasion, many military experts argue that this can turn into a long war, as Hamas has established a network of tunnels in Gaza and is prepared to engage in a guerrilla war against the IDF. 

Impact on the South Caucasus 

In early September 2023, the U.S. backed the Indian-Middle Eastern-European corridor (IMEEC) in an open challenge against China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Russia and Iran’s International North-South Transport Corridor. (Even though India is part of the INSTC, the U.S. is doing its best to detach New Delhi from this grand project connecting Russia to the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean.) The IMEEC is more feasible compared to other economic corridors, as it passes via relatively stable countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel. However, instability in Israel will jeopardize the project. Russia and Iran have expressed silent concern over the project, as it bypasses them, while Turkey’s president announced during the G20 summit held in New Delhi that “there is no corridor without Turkey.” This is one of the key reasons why Russia is eyeing the opening of communication channels in the South Caucasus – not only to control the North-South but also the West-East routes (via Syunik) connecting Europe to China. The developments in Gaza, Iran’s distraction and a possible regional war may push the necessity for the realization of the “Zangezur Corridor” through Syunik.

Meanwhile, the prolongation of war in Gaza could create new challenges or opportunities in the South Caucasus. If Israel is sidelined from the South Caucasus due to its internal distraction, this may push Azerbaijan to be more dependent on Russia, Turkey and Iran. It may also be restrained from launching a new escalation against Armenia, as new arms supplies from Tel Aviv to Baku would be halted to arm Israel’s war. 

Yet Azerbaijan may take advantage of the global distraction with the escalation in Gaza and Iran’s involvement in this war to launch a limited incursion in the bordering territories of Armenia, under the pretext of capturing the so-called Soviet-era enclaves. Two weeks ago, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, during his phone conversation with the head of the European Council Charles Michel, said that “eight villages of Azerbaijan are still under occupation of Armenia,” stressing the need to “liberate” them. This was refuted by Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who in an interview argued that there should be a trade-off between the Armenian and Azerbaijani “enclaves” to keep the status quo as it is. However, given Aliyev’s anti-Armenian rhetoric and his insistence on establishing a corridor through Syunik, he may engage in another escalation. Such a warning was even stated by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, as he warned that “Azerbaijan may invade Armenia in the coming weeks” (though the U.S. State Department later denied this).

Vanadzor Fountains (Photo: Arthur Ovanesian, 2021)

Author’s note: I’m deeply grateful to Arthur Ovanesian and Perla Kantarjian for their invaluable suggestions.

Yet again history
has decided
to visit the present.
Like always,
it has come
unannounced,
empty-handed.
Once more, we said:
“Please give us bread.”
They said here’s pain—
and we did receive it.
We suggested:
“If not food,
you may bring any gift.”
We got only poison.
We said, day by day:
“Our bodies are growing slim.”
They answered:
“Ah, you’re getting smart now.”
Perhaps we spoke too often
about our tormenter’s sin—
that’s why some understood
it as being without,
and others thought
it was their own.
We raised our voices:
“Our people are living in hell.”
The response:
“Your situation looks bright.”
We begged:
“Please protect our plot of land.”
They wondered:
“Why are you requesting fences?”
We informed them:
“Our home
isn’t safe.”
They advised:
“Then go ahead and keep 
the doors open.”
With time, we told them:
“It’s still getting too hot.”
Finally, a few understood,
but still they did nothing.
We warned: “The last
of our people are leaving.”
Oh, what a burden
this was to hear!
We suggested:
“Let’s make a list of demands.”
They thought:
“Perhaps we’re getting too cunning.”
We pronounced:
“Our enemies could be pétulant.”
I guess, in our ignorance,
we didn’t pronounce
it the right way,
sounding playful, exuberant.
We asked: “Are we not
being sensible enough?”
They said: “Yes, but still
you’re being too sensitive.”
We cautioned:
“They mean war.”
They calmed us down:
“That’s all in the past.”
We said: “It could happen today.”
They heard what they wanted to hear:
“We’re too much of an eyesore.”
Now that everyone has left,
there’s no enemy left.
All the “occupiers” have fled.
All the “separatists” are gone.
There are no more people
to call “traitors” and “dogs.”

Glossary of terms:

Book Review | At Four O’clock in the Afternoon and Bones and Bodies, We Had to Walk Over Them
Written by Guleeg Haroian and Eva Hightaian
Translated by Rose D. Guertin, Ph.D.
Edited by Gil Harootunian, Ph.D.

Two oral histories are combined in one collection. At Four O’clock in the Afternoon is the only existing firsthand oral account of an adult female who survived both the 1895 Hamidian massacres and the 1915 Armenian Genocide. Bones and Bodies, We Had To Walk Over Them is the firsthand oral account of her nine-year-old daughter who survived the Genocide.

Both accounts were translated by Rose D. Guertin, Ph.D. and written and edited by Gil Harootunian, Ph.D. This stunning collection is told in four voices. 

Dr. Harootunian’s voice provides the introduction to both oral histories with thoroughly researched facts and a relevant overview that shine a light on key points that may have been dimmed during the emotional narration or translation in language. She states there are many reasons why self-narrated histories were not written by women, including but not limited to the lack of literacy skills and the community taboo that precludes females discussing their sexual trauma.

Guleeg (Toomasian) Haroian narrates At Four O’clock In the Afternoon, starting her story at the age of 10, when she witnessed the killing of her father, the theft of their wealth and the burning of their house down to ashes by the Turks. By 1913, she was married to Hagop Haroian, blessed with two daughters and pregnant with a third, when he left for America with the dream of saving money to bring his family a life of freedom. With dreams shattered, she survived the 1915 Genocide through a forced marriage to a Muslim and later reunited with her daughter. 

Excerpt: “And soon the crier yelled for us to go. I jumped. I knew that place so well! I ran. They had begun separating the pretty ones, the brides, for rape, marriage and property. They were raping and beating them, then driving them out…I escaped. I had a stick in my hand. I was in my thirties; my eyes and face I had rubbed all black mud on, so the Turks wouldn’t recognize me, and they wouldn’t see how young I was…From roof to roof, I jumped.”

Guleeg Haroian with her husband Hagop and daughters Eva and Mary (infant) in the U.S.

Eva (Haroian) Hightaian, Guleeg’s only surviving daughter from “the old country,” narrates Bones and Bodies, We Had to Walk Over Them. Eva’s oral history is significant, as she reveals the decision-making process of a nine-year-old child experiencing the collections, the Death March and forced transfer into a Muslim household. Eva also talks about her years with an Arab adoptive mother and her reluctance to re-join her mother and the Armenian community.

Excerpt: “After the Turkish government took all the ammunition and everything they saw, they decided you still have more…The soldiers took the women they found to the konagh. They tortured them. No woman would talk about it, but you can imagine what they did to the women. …The Turkish soldiers collected all the old men. They took them to a gorge, shot them, and those old men fell right there…After that, the massacre time came…And now the Turks claim they never did such a thing. But I saw it with my own eyes, in my young days, my childhood, they did all those things…” 

The afterword is written by Dr. Rebecca Jinks, Department of History, Royal Holloway, University of London, and a respected authority of women’s experiences during the Armenian and Yezidi genocides and humanitarian responses and representations in the aftermath. Her article “‘Marks Hard to Erase”: The Troubled Reclamation of ‘Absorbed’ Armenian Women, 1919-1927” was published in 2018 in the American Historical Review. Dr. Jinks provides a comparative analysis to a phenomenon called “genocidal absorption” that occurs when children are removed from the ethnic, religious and national communities that they are born into, as part of the process of group destruction. Dr. Jinks states that Guleeg and Eva’s experiences give us real insight into different experiences of genocidal absorption during the Armenian Genocide.  

The book is just over 200 pages and flows smoothly for a quick read. However, the words on those pages will stay with you long after as you reflect on the unspeakable horror and remarkable resilience. Please note trigger warnings of violence, sexual trauma and genocide. 

It was not lost on me that this rare collection of Armenian history was written by a family matriarchy of four generations of women. The two oral histories consist of excerpts from recordings made beginning in 1976 with all four generations present. Had this not been a collaborative effort among trusted family members, these stories would join others that will never be told. This level of firsthand accounts is a rarity, and their value cannot be understated.

This treasure could not have been written by anyone other than Dr. Harootunian. We highly recommend this book for its rare and unique firsthand points of view, especially for readers and researchers interested in the lesser told stories from women that are written in English. 

We also commend and thank Guleeg and Eva for their selfless bravery, for opening deep wounds and for reliving their nightmares, and Rose and Gil for pushing through their generational trauma to share this invaluable treasure with the world.

Sitting on the four-hour marshrutka ride from Sasuntsi Davit metro station in Armenia’s capital Yerevan to the border town Goris, I didn’t know what to expect. Just one day earlier, refugees had started arriving from Artsakh. When we stopped at a food court in Yeghegnadzor, halfway between Goris and Yerevan, I quickly realized it was full of Artsakhtsi refugees. One asked my friend and I if we were from Artsakh as well. We replied that we were not but were on our way to Goris – not knowing what else to say in the moment to console him.

Upon arrival, I joined All for Armenia in their efforts, shopping for and distributing food, toys and essentials such as clothing and blankets at various hotels and in Goris’s main square. I also spent time with the Center for Truth and Justice collecting testimonies from individuals who witnessed war crimes. I saw the best and worst of humanity during those days. As the crowds grew, central Goris was full of thousands of people in meager conditions – some with all their belongings in several bags, some who arrived with only the clothes on their backs, and some who didn’t even bring clothes. I saw families with children sleeping in cars with nowhere to go, despite our best efforts to help. I saw the elderly weep and traumatized children not knowing how to react. I saw Goris transform, with clothing piled everywhere, garbage cans overflowing and chaos all around. I saw what seemed to be a never-ending number of ambulances and helicopters rushing to help the victims of the fuel tank explosion that took place in Stepanakert while people were trying to get out. With all this being said, the situation was handled as well as possible in an attempt to welcome more than 100,000 refugees.

The good in humanity that I saw over the week gave me hope. The eagerness with which the local Goris children volunteered captured the way the whole city chipped in to help. Everyone wanted to lend a hand, from the grocer to the hotel manager, and felt the pain of their compatriots who had just been ethnically cleansed after a 10-month blockade and brutal attack. The Artsakhtsis displayed remarkable resilience. I couldn’t help but smile seeing the grins on the children’s faces as they received a piece of chocolate or the gratitude from so many for receiving even a simple cup of tea.

There is hope, and I want to instill that same sense of hope in my Artsakhtsi compatriots who went through the unimaginable. I want them to see a future in Armenia. Yet we have a long road ahead of us. We as an Armenian collective must do better to ensure Armenia’s future. The diaspora can financially support trusted organizations, whether they are working on short-term essential needs, long-term housing and employment solutions, evidence collection or security. Every one of us must contribute in some way. Now is the time to be engaged.