MP Tigran Abrahamyan calls for increased vigilance in Armenia and Artsakh

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Armenia – Feb 24 2022


Armenian lawmaker Tigran Abrahamyan, who represents the opposition With Honor faction, has called for increased vigilance in Armenia and Artsakh amid intensified Azerbaijani border provocations.

He called attention to the fact that Azerbaijan carried out various provocations against Artsakh over the past week, resorting to ceasefire violations, actively spreading fake news, etc.

“Taking relations with Azerbaijan to a new level, Russia seeks to keep Baku’s actions in the realm of predictability, but the factor of Turkey, which is breathing down Azerbaijan’s neck, increases the likelihood of border incidents and ceasefire violations in general,” the MP wrote on Facebook on Thursday.

In the situation around Ukraine, Turkey has a clear anti-Russian position and small-scale provocations against Armenia and Artsakh are possible in response to Russia’s military operation, he stated.

“It’s not even about Azerbaijan’s desire; there is a risk that an attempt will be made at Turkey’s initiative to destabilize our region, forcing Russia to put additional efforts and resources in the South Caucasus,” Abrahamyan said.

According to him, this danger also exists in other regions, where Russia is competing with Turkey and other countries for influence.

“Thus, there is a need for increased vigilance in Armenia and Artsakh, and this primarily concerns the structures ensuring internal and external security,” Abrahamyan said.

Analyst: Even large countries like Ukraine completely turn into front in modern wars

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Armenia – Feb 24 2022


Armenian political analyst Hrant Melik-Shahnazaryan, who heads the Voskanapat Analytical Center, has shared a map of Ukraine’s military infrastructure targeted by Russian forces.

“Do you know what else this map tells us about? It indicates that even large countries like Ukraine are completely transformed into a front in modern wars,” he wrote on Telegram on Thursday.

“In this regard, I am convinced again that in case of a properly organized war, the settlement of the Artsakh issue may be a matter of just a few days for us. The same goes for them [Azerbaijan]. We should be well aware of it and be ready as well,” he noted.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a televised address on Thursday morning that in response to a request by the heads of the Donbass republics he had made a decision to carry out a special military operation.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky introduced martial law across the country.

Avetik Chalabyan: Armenia finds itself in the maelstrom of new military threats

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Armenia – Feb 24 2022


Armenia finds itself in the whirlpool of new military threats, public and political figure Avetik Chalabyan said on Thursday, referring to the Russian military operation against Ukraine.

“Regardless of the motives of the military actions, their possible outcomes and political leanings of each of us, this is a great tragedy. It could have enormous negative consequences for our entire region, even for the whole world,” he wrote on Facebook.

“Our war-torn country now finds itself in the maelstrom of new military threats. Each of us must realize the gravity of this moment, do everything possible to improve the security of our country and emerge from the possible new trials with minimal losses. May God bless us! Stay strong!” Chalabyan said.

Turkish press: Turkey, Armenia hold 2nd diplomatic talks aimed at normalization

The Turkish and Armenian special envoys meet in Vienna, Austria, Feb. 24, 2022. (AA Photo)

The second meeting between Turkey and Armenia’s special envoys to discuss steps to normalize ties between the two countries was held in Vienna on Thursday. The envoys have “confirmed that the ultimate goal of the negotiations is to achieve full normalization” between the two countries as agreed during their first meeting in Moscow.

A Turkish Foreign Ministry statement announced the meeting between the special representatives of Turkey and Armenia, Ambassador Serdar Kılıç and Deputy Speaker of the Armenian Parliament Ruben Rubinyan, respectively, in the Austrian capital.

“They exchanged views on possible concrete steps that can be mutually taken to that end and reiterated their agreement to continue the process without preconditions,” it added.

Last December Kılıç was named Turkey’s special envoy to discuss steps towards normalization with neighboring Armenia, with Rubinyan named as his counterpart days later.

The first meeting of special representatives from Turkey and Armenia toward normalization was held last month. The countries attended what both hailed as “positive and constructive” talks in Moscow, the first in more than a decade, raising hopes that diplomatic relations can be established and their land border – shut since 1993 – reopened.

Turkey and Armenia have also restarted commercial charter flights between Istanbul and Yerevan after two years as part of the normalization process.

Turkey is ready to take further steps in improving relations with Armenia and establishing a regional cooperation platform in the Caucasus as long as Yerevan is determined to continue the normalization process that started with the appointment of special envoys, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said Wednesday.

Addressing members of the press on his way back from his Africa tour, which was cut short by a day due to the developments in Ukraine, Erdoğan evaluated the ongoing normalization process with Armenia. In addition to the appointment of special envoys to conduct diplomatic talks and the relaunching of flights between the two countries, he also drew attention to Turkey’s intention to form a regional cooperation platform among Caucasus countries, including Armenia.

“As you know, I already said that we will respond in the same way to positive steps taken by Armenia. This region needs peace, stability and prosperity. With this understanding, we made a sincere effort to start a normalization process between our country and Armenia. President of Azerbaijan, my brother Ilham (Aliyev), also finds this useful. We are pleased with the will of Armenia to normalize with us,” the president said.

Expressing that Turkey expects Armenia to maintain the positive approach, he said: “We also know that Armenia has some concrete expectations such as opening the borders and establishing diplomatic relations. If Armenia is determined to continue the process that has started with the special representatives, there will be no question of keeping the doors closed for us.”

Underlining that Turkey favors a regional cooperation platform and seeks to overcome problems with Armenia through cooperation, Erdoğan said: “In this sense, Azerbaijan-Armenia relations and the Turkey-Armenia normalization process can progress by supporting each other. Likewise, our idea of regional cooperation will support and feed off these bilateral processes. Everyone needs to act constructively to make good use of this historic opportunity. We will continue to carry out all these processes in close coordination with Azerbaijan, as we have done so far.”

Despite being neighbors, Turkey and Armenia have seen many difficulties in their diplomatic relations since the latter’s declaration of independence in 1991. The two countries have long been divided by a range of issues – from Armenia’s refusal to recognize their shared border to its occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh and the 1915 events between the Ottoman Empire and Armenians.

The two countries have had no diplomatic or commercial ties since the 1990s. The talks last month were the first attempt to restore links since a 2009 peace accord that was never ratified.

Bilateral relations, however, have taken a new shape and appear to be heading toward normalization recently. Following the war over Nagorno-Karabakh in which Turkey backed Azerbaijan against Armenia, Turkish-Armenian relations have entered a new phase, with Erdoğan saying Turkey is ready for dialogue with Armenia. Azerbaijan also supports the process.

Addressing Azerbaijan’s parliament on Jan. 16, 2021, Erdoğan said peace and stability in the Caucasus will benefit the entire world, not just countries of the region.

Ankara has made frequent calls for a six-nation platform comprising Turkey, Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia for permanent peace, stability and cooperation in the region, saying it would be a win-win initiative for all regional actors in the Caucasus. Turkey believes that permanent peace is possible through mutual security-based cooperation among the states and people of the South Caucasus region.

Russia hosted the inaugural meeting of the regional platform. However, Tbilisi has refused to attend, citing Russian aggression toward the ex-Soviet nation. Turkey wants to host the next Caucasus cooperation platform meeting.

Turkish press: Erdoğan, Putin speak over phone amid Ukraine crisis

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin has spoken over phone on Feb. 23 amid Ukraine crisis.

Turkey is ready to do its part to calm tensions in Ukraine, Erdoğan told Puti,n according to a statement by the communications directorate. 

Elevating the issue to a more complex level and military confrontation will not benefit any party, Erdoğan also said.

The president also reiterated that Turkey does not recognize Russian steps against Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

Previously, Turkey has expressed hope for Russia and Ukraine to return to the negotiation table amid a growing crisis between the two countries as Erdoğan has informed that he will seek to establish contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin following an online meeting of NATO leaders.

“Our wish is that Russia and Ukraine, both our neighbors from the Black Sea, return to the negotiations as soon as possible,” Erdoğan told journalists on his return from Senegal early Feb. 23.

Erdoğan recalled he had talked to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier about the recent escalation on the Russian-Ukraine border following Moscow’s recognition of two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine.

“I have underlined [to Zelensky] that we will never accept any attempt to violate the Minsk Agreement. I have also told that we are ready to do our share in order to avoid further escalation and solve the problem through dialogue,” Erdoğan said.

NATO leaders will meet at an online emergency meeting on how the alliance would respond to the Russian violation of international law and defying Ukraine’s sovereignty.

NATO should decide on Ukraine

Erdoğan recalled that earlier attempts by French and German presidents failed and that no meeting between Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden could be realized to de-escalate tension. “If we look at the situation from the perspective of a state or an institution, there is only NATO left. NATO should determine its approach through this virtual meeting. It should do whatever needs to be done,” he said.

The NATO countries have not ruled to deploy troops to Ukraine and Russia has a massive military deployment on the Ukrainian border, Erdoğan said, adding, “Of course, one does not need to be a prophet to predict what the result might be in the face of this picture. In this regard, let’s see what the leaders of NATO allied member countries will say in this video conference. Of course, we will determine what we will say according to what they will say, and we will reveal our approach.”

He also said that Turkey attaches huge importance to the NATO meeting.

Erdoğan urges caution

With the continued escalation, one needs to be more cautious and sensitive, Erdoğan warned, criticizing those who are linking the ongoing crisis with the supply of natural gas and consequently the rise in the energy prices.

“We are running a state here, we should preserve our common sense. We should take our steps in this sensitivity,” he said, informing about Ankara’s efforts to create a communication between him and Putin. He said it will be better for him to talk to Putin following the alliance meeting.

Turkey has unique ties with Ukraine, Russia

On a question how Turkey’s ties with Ukraine and Russia would be influenced in case of further escalation, Erdoğan said: “We cannot give up on both. We have political, military and economic relations with Russia. We also have political, military and economic relations with Ukraine. If you say ‘Give up on Ukraine’, we cannot give up, because our country’s interests here are very advanced. If you say, ‘Give up with Russia,’ we cannot give up on it either, because we have really advanced relations with it right now.”

Therefore, Turkey is exerting efforts to resolve the problem without scarifying its relations with Russia or Ukraine, the president said, underlining that Ankara will determine its policy following the NATO summit.

German president welcomes Herzog’s visit

On a question about his phone conversation with Steinmeier, Erdoğan said they discussed the regional and bilateral developments as well as ongoing cooperation on the migrant problem.

The conversation covered Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s confirmed visit to Turkey on March 9 and 10. “A new era will begin on Turkey-Israel ties with Herzog’s visit. Mr. Steinmeier expressed his satisfaction about it and described the visit as a right move,” Erdoğan said.

“We have also discussed the developments in the Gulf and our trip to the United Arab Emirates. We have discussed that this could bring a new momentum in the Gulf,” he added.

Borders with Armenia can be opened

On the Turkish-Armenian normalization efforts, Erdoğan said he and Steinmeier also discussed the dialogue between Ankara and Yerevan.

“This region needs peace, stability and prosperity. We have engaged with Armenia for a normalization process with this understanding. Azerbaijan President Ilham [Aliyev] finds it useful, too. We are also content with the will displayed by Armenia for the normalization,” he said.

The two countries’ special envoys will come together on Feb. 24 in Vienna in the second leg of the talks, Erdoğan informed. “We know that Armenia has concrete expectations for the opening of the borders and establishment of the diplomatic ties. If Armenia continues to remain committed to the process with us, it’s out of the question for us to keep the borders closed,” he vowed.

Turkish press: ANALYSIS – Eyes on Vienna as Turkiye-Armenia special representatives meet

Rabia Iclal Turan   |24.02.2022

ISTANBUL

As I was watching a stunning view of Mount Agri from the Armenian capital Yerevan, it reminded me of Hrant Dink, the Turkish-Armenian journalist tragically assassinated in 2007, who described Turks and Armenians as “two close peoples, two distant neighbors.”

The highest peak in Turkiye, which is also known as Mount Ararat and is featured on the Armenian currency, seemed so close but yet was far, far away.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Turkiye was one of the first countries to recognize Armenia’s independence, on Sept. 21, 1991.

But following the 1993 occupation by Armenian forces of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory, the border between the two countries was closed, a condition that has remained to this day. There are other contentious issues as well, including the events of 1915 in the Ottoman Empire.

Past attempts to normalize relations

On Oct. 10, 2009, the two countries signed a peace accord, known as the Zurich Protocols, to establish diplomatic relations and open the border, but failed to ratify the agreement in their respective national parliaments.

Fast forward to fall 2020 and the end of the 44-day second Nagorno-Karabakh war, which helped Azerbaijan recapture its territory and also put Turkish-Armenian relations into a new phase.

That December, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on a visit to Azerbaijan, said Turkiye could open its borders to Armenia if Yerevan takes positive steps toward regional peace.

There were positive signals from both sides, who then appointed special envoys as the first step to end decades of hostilities. It was followed by the resumption of flights after a two-year hiatus and Armenia’s lifting of a ban on Turkish imports.

Ahead of 2nd meeting in Vienna

The special representatives from Turkiye and Armenia, Serdar Kilic and Ruben Rubinyan, first met on Jan. 14 in Moscow, and the next meeting is set to be held in Vienna on Thursday.

As Rubinyan and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan have also been invited to the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Turkiye, set for March 11-13, but have yet to confirm their attendance, all eyes are on the meeting in the Austrian capital.

In recent weeks, I had the opportunity to visit Armenia and speak to a variety of people, including traders and academics, and my colleagues at Anadolu Agency spoke to businesspeople in Turkish border cities, who see the normalization of relations as a win-win situation.

Despite differences, many agree that the opening of the borders and railways between Turkiye and Armenia would bring economic benefits to both sides. Shopkeepers in border cities such as Kars, Igdir, and Gyumri are especially eager to grab the opportunity.

While some retailers in the Armenian border city of Gyumri urged caution in terms of competition with Turkish goods and its risks for domestic industry, one shop owner told me that “trade brings people closer and brings peace.”

Meanwhile, businesspeople in Turkiye’s eastern city of Kars, near the currently closed Dogu Kapi border gate, said they expected a “massive influx of tourists” from Armenia to their historical and religious sites if the ongoing efforts succeed, and a link between Kars and Armenia by road and railway is established.

Despite the sealed borders, Turkish products make their way to Armenia by way of Georgia and Iran. The trade volume between Turkiye, with a population of over 83 million, and Armenia, with a population of 3 million, stood at $15.3 million in 2012-2021.

Several Turkish clothing chains such as LC Waikiki, Koton, and Mavi also have locations in the Armenian capital.

What’s next?

Analysts I spoke to sounded optimistic about the historic bid by Turkiye and Armenia and stressed that normalization is not “reconciliation,” but rather the first step towards addressing issues concerning the two societies and two countries.

Resuming direct flights was hailed as a positive development by people from both sides, but they said that the real turning point would be the opening of the borders.

President Erdogan said Wednesday on his way back from an Africa tour that “If Armenia is determined to continue the process that started with the special representatives, for us keeping the doors closed will be out of the question.” He added that Turkiye is in favor of a six-country regional cooperation platform, including Azerbaijan, Armenia, Russia, Georgia, and Iran, while also stressing that his country will continue the normalization process in “close coordination” with Azerbaijan.

The first meeting between the special representatives discussed a roadmap to normalize relations, and it is expected that opening of the land borders, resuming railway services, and establishing diplomatic relations could be next in line.

One can hope for a more positive and conducive atmosphere if the neighboring countries agree to establish trade and tourism relations and open borders to boost people-to-people contacts, which would, in turn, help them overcome the remaining political issues.

Turkish press: Turkish, Armenian officials hold 2nd meeting in Vienna

Merve Aydogan   |24.02.2022


ANKARA

The second meeting between special envoys from Turkiye and Armenia to discuss steps for normalizing ties between the two countries was held in Vienna on Thursday. 

A Turkish Foreign Ministry statement announced the meeting between the special representatives of Turkiye and Armenia, “respectively, Ambassador Serdar Kilic and Deputy Speaker of the Armenian Parliament Ruben Rubinyan,” in the Austrian capital.

The statement said the Turkish and Armenian envoys have “confirmed that the ultimate goal of the negotiations is to achieve full normalization” between the two countries as agreed during their first meeting in Moscow.

“They exchanged views on possible concrete steps that can be mutually taken to that end and reiterated their agreement to continue the process without preconditions,” it added.

Last December Kilic was named Turkiye’s special envoy to discuss steps towards normalization with neighboring Armenia, with Rubinyan named as his counterpart days later.

Talks were first held in the Russian capital Moscow on Jan. 14. According to a joint statement, the parties agreed to continue negotiations without any preconditions.

As part of the efforts, Turkey and Armenia have also resumed commercial flights between the two countries.

The two countries have been divided on a range of issues, including Armenia’s refusal to recognize a shared border, its nearly three-decade occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh, and the 1915 events between the Ottoman Empire and Armenians.

MEP: Karabakh issue remains unresolved

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Armenia – Feb 24 2022

The Karabakh conflict is not resolved, Marina Kaljurand, Co-Chair of the Committee, Member of the European Parliament from Estonia, said at a briefing on Thursday.

Kaljurand noted that during the discussions, the need to return all Armenian prisoners without exception was emphasized.

European Parliament will continue to insist on this until all Armenian citizens held in Azerbaijani prisons are returned home, she noted adding that the EU welcomes Yerevan’s step to provide maps of minefields.

During the discussions, the parties touched upon the issue of protecting the Armenian cultural heritage, as well as steps to ensure the work of the UNESCO mission in the region.

The issue of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations and the forthcoming meeting of special envoys in Vienna today were also touched upon.

Armenia, according to her, is an important partner of the EU.

Russia disables 74 ground military infrastructure facilities in Ukraine

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Armenia – Feb 24 2022

Russia has disabled 74 ground military infrastructure facilities as a result of the strikes, the Defence Ministry’s spokesman, Major-General Igor Konashenkov told reporters, RIA Novosti reported.

“This includes 11 airfields of the Air Force, three command posts, a Ukrainian Naval base, as well as 18 radar stations of S-300 and Buk-M1 air defence systems,” he said.

The defence ministry said it was not targeting any civilian objects on Ukrainian territory, only military infrastructure, with no threat to civilians.

About two hours afterwards, the ministry added that Ukrainian border guards “are not showing any resistance”, Ukrainian air defence assets have been suppressed, and the infrastructure of military air bases has been disabled. The Defence Ministry did not confirm the information of foreign media about the downed Russian plane over Ukraine.

How will Russian-Ukrainian war affect Armenia?

 NEWS.am 
Armenia – Feb 24 2022


In recent months, geopolitical tensions between the West and Russia have led to a full-scale war, which will undoubtedly have a serious impact on the world economy as well.

Armenia will not be left behind either.

Armenia has been a member of the Eurasian Economic Union since 2014, at the core of which is Russia. The economic crisis caused by the epidemic has hurt all EAEU member states: the economic decline in Russia was 3%, Armenia 7.4%, Belarus 0.9%, Kazakhstan 2.5% and Kyrgyzstan 8.6%. For the Russian economy 2021 was a year of recovery. Economic growth amounted to 4.4%, helped by an increase in the price of natural gas on the world market and increased exports to EU countries.

Notably, the Russian economy fully recovered in 2021, while Armenia did not.

2021 was a year of achievements in terms of Armenian-Russian economic relations: exports from Armenia to Russia amounted to $847 million, an increase of 24.5% compared to the previous year. At the same time, imports from Russia increased, amounting to USD 1.9 billion in 2021, an increase of 19.2% compared to the previous year.

Armenia’s exports to Russia account for 28% and imports for 33.3%. Russia exports mainly finished final consumption goods (canned goods, wine, cognac, agricultural products, jewellery, etc.), which further benefit the Armenian economy. Russia, on the other hand, imports energy, metals, construction materials and consumer goods.

Economic sanctions imposed by the West will slow down the development of the Russian economy. Reduced investment and negative expectations will lead to a sharp devaluation of the Russian ruble, resulting in higher prices for imported goods, including Armenian goods, all in the face of falling incomes in the Russian market. That is, the continued devaluation of the Russian ruble may lead to a reduction in exports from Armenia.

Since Armenia’s independence, Russia has been and remains the main destination for those who go to work. Every year, tens of thousands of Armenian citizens go there to work, which allows them to receive large remittances. Particularly, during 2021 individuals, through banks, transferred money from Russia to Armenia amounted to $865 million, which is about 41% of all transfers. Some people living in Armenia simply cannot exist without this money (aid).

In addition, Russia is considered the largest investor in Armenia’s economy. In particular, in January-September 2021, the net inflow of investments from Russia amounted to 52.4 billion drams, which is almost twice as much as last year. Many large Armenian companies operate with Russian capital, some of which are subsidiaries of Russian companies, such as Gazprom Armenia. The direct sanctions imposed by Western countries on Russian companies may also affect subsidiaries operating in Armenia. Five out of 10 Armenian companies, which pay the highest taxes, operate with Russia. They create thousands of jobs and pay billions of drams to the state budget.

Possible restrictions for Russian companies will seriously affect the investment climate in Armenia. At the moment, it is impossible to stop the steep fall in the value of Russian companies’ shares, and foreign investors are rushing to get rid of them.

Economic risks in Armenia are quite high, and to counter all this, the Armenian government should show a comprehensive approach, without waiting for losses to be identified.