Category: 2022

Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, U intelligence had predicted a likely blistering assault by Moscow that would quickly mobilize the vast Russian air power that its military assembled in order to dominate Ukraine’s skies.

But the first six days have confounded those expectations and instead seen Moscow act far more delicately with its air power, so much so that U.S. officials can’t exactly explain what’s driving Russia’s apparent risk-averse behavior.

“They’re not necessarily willing to take high risks with their own aircraft and their own pilots,” a senior U.S. defense official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Vastly outmatched by Russia’s military, in terms of raw numbers and firepower, Ukraine’s own air force is still flying and its air defenses are still deemed to be viable – a fact that is baffling military experts.

After the opening salvos of the war on Feb. 24, analysts expected the Russian military to try to immediately destroy Ukraine’s air force and air defenses.

That would have been “the logical and widely anticipated next step, as seen in almost every military conflict since 1938,” wrote the RUSI think-tank in London, in an article called “The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force.”

Instead, Ukrainian air force fighter jets are still carrying out low-level, defensive counter-air and ground-attack sorties. Russia is still flying through contested airspace.

Ukrainian troops with surface-to-air rockets are able to threaten Russian aircraft and create risk to Russian pilots trying to support ground forces.

“There’s a lot of stuff they’re doing that’s perplexing,” said Rob Lee, a Russian military specialist at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

He thought the beginning of the war would be “maximum use of force.”

“Because every day it goes on there’s a cost and the risk goes up. And they’re not doing that and it just is really hard to explain for any realistic reason.”

The confusion over how Russia has used its air force comes as President Joe Biden’s administration rejects calls by Kyiv for a no-fly zone that could draw the United States directly into a conflict with Russia, whose future plans for its air force are unclear.

Military experts have seen evidence of a lack of Russian air force coordination with ground troop formations, with multiple Russian columns of troops sent forward beyond the reach of their own air defense cover.

That leaves Russian soldiers vulnerable to attack from Ukrainian forces, including those newly equipped with Turkish drones and U.S. and British anti-tank missiles.

David Deptula, a retired U.S. Air Force three-star general who once commanded the no-fly zone over northern Iraq, said he was surprised that Russia didn’t work harder to establish air dominance from the start.

“The Russians are discovering that coordinating multi-domain operations is not easy,” Deptula told Reuters. “And that they are not as good as they presumed they were.”

While the Russians have been under-performing, Ukraine’s military has been exceeding expectations so far.

Ukraine’s experience from the last eight years of fighting with Russian-backed separatist forces in the east was dominated by static World War I-style trench warfare.

By contrast Russia’s forces got combat experience in Syria, where they intervened on the side of Bashar Assad, and demonstrated some ability to synchronize ground maneuvers with air and drone attacks.

Ukraine’s ability to keep flying air force jets is a visible demonstration of the country’s resilience in the face of attack and has been a morale booster, both to its own military and Ukraine’s people, experts say.

It has also led to mythologizing of the Ukrainian air force, including a tale about a Ukrainian jet fighter that purportedly single-handedly downed six Russian aircrafts, dubbed online as “The Ghost of Kyiv.”

A Reuters Fact Check showed how a clip from the video game Digital Combat Simulator was miscaptioned online to claim it was an actual Ukrainian fighter jet shooting down a Russian plane.

The United States estimates that Russia is using just over 75 aircraft in its Ukraine invasion, the senior U.S. official said.

Ahead of the invasion, officials had estimated that Russia had potentially readied hundreds of the thousands of aircraft in its air force for a Ukraine mission. However, the senior U.S. official on Tuesday declined to estimate how many Russian combat aircraft, including attack helicopters, might still be available and outside Ukraine.

Both sides are taking losses.

“We do have indications that they’ve lost some (aircraft), but so have the Ukrainians,” the official said.

Turkey-made Bayraktar drones have been very efficient in Ukraine’s battle against invading Russian forces, Kyiv’s ambassador to Ankara, Vasyl Bodnar, said Sunday.

Bodnar’s remarks came during a press meeting in Ankara as Ukrainian forces battled to hold Russian forces back from the capital Kyiv and residents sheltered in subway tunnels, basements and underground garages.

The battle-tested unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have already proven their capabilities in Libya, Syria and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Turkey has sold Kyiv several batches of drone magnate Baykar-developed Bayraktar TB2s, which it had in the past deployed against Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Ankara and Kyiv earlier this month agreed on a deal aimed at expanding drone production in Ukraine.

In addition to Ukraine, the Bayraktar TB2 has also been used by Qatar, Azerbaijan and Poland, which in May last year became the first European Union and NATO member state to acquire drones from Turkey. Many other nations have also hinted at buying the UAVs.

The Bayraktar TB2 – with its electronics, software, aerodynamics, design and submain systems fully designed and developed nationally – stands out among the world’s most advanced UAV systems in its class with its flight automation and performance.

It has a record altitude of 27,030 feet for over 24 hours in the air and can carry 150 kilograms (over 330 pounds) of payload. It can operate during the day and at night.

Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said Ankara was implementing an international pact on naval passage to the Black Sea.

“Turkey will implement all provisions of Montreux Convention in a transparent manner,” the minister told a live interview with broadcaster CNN Türk.

Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, NATO member Turkey has control over the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits, linking the Mediterranean and Black seas. The pact gives Ankara the power to regulate the transit of naval warships and to close the straits to foreign warships during wartime and when it is threatened.

The Turkish diplomat also held talks on Ukraine with Estonia’s Foreign Minister Eva-Maria Liimets along with Dutch counterpart Wopke Hoekstra and Helga Schmid, the secretary-general of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

In addition, he discussed the humanitarian issue and efforts to ensure a cease-fire in Ukraine during a conversation with U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

Turkey earlier called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a “war” on Sunday in a rhetorical shift that opened the way for the move.

While building close cooperation with Russia on defense and energy, Ankara has also sold sophisticated drones to Ukraine and signed a deal to co-produce more, angering Moscow. Turkish officials noted that the country would continue to support Ukraine’s territorial integrity and unity.

Turkey opposes Russian policies in Syria and Libya, its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its 2008 recognition of two Georgian regions.

He also said Turkey was pleased about Ukraine and Russia’s decision to meet on Monday.

Ukraine agreed to launch peace talks with Russia on Sunday, even as battles raged in key cities and President Vladimir Putin raised the prospect of a nuclear escalation with the West.

Delegations from each country are set to meet at the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, the office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

There are no conditions to the planned talks at the border, according to the statement.

He noted that Turkey is also striving to ensure the safe evacuation of around 6,600 Turkish citizens in Ukraine.

The Turkish nationals started to arrive on Sunday morning by land after the Turkish Foreign Ministry arranged their evacuation through Romania and Bulgaria due to the closure of the Ukrainian airspace after Russia’s attacks on Ukraine.

Evacuated Turkish nationals entered Turkey through northwestern Hamzabeyli Border Gate at the Turkish-Bulgarian border and will be transferred to Istanbul by bus.

Turkey has no intention of joining international sanctions against Russia over its war with Ukraine, Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said late Tuesday.

“As a principle, we didn’t participate in such sanctions in a general sense. We have no intention of joining in these sanctions, either,” he said on Turkish TV news channel Haberturk.

Since Russia’s war on Ukraine began last Thursday, it has been met by outrage from the international community, with the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States implementing a range of economic sanctions on Russia.

Touching on the Montreux Convention, a 1936 accord on the governing of the Turkish Straits, Çavuşoğlu said Ankara had sent official notifications about its position on the matter to the countries involved in the war.

He added that Russia had accepted when Turkey asked Russia to withdraw its request for warships not registered in its Black Sea fleet to pass through the Straits.

With the Russia-Ukraine war in its sixth day, the provisions of the 1936 pact — which controls access to the Black Sea, including coastal countries like Ukraine — has come into the international spotlight. Çavuşoğlu mentioned in particular that Articles 19 of the convention would be implemented. The convention gives Turkey the authority to ban warships from the straits during times of war.

“We don’t have to take sides in war; on the contrary, we are a country that can establish an equal dialogue with both sides to end it. We can’t afford to take sides,” he also said.

Turkey is calling on all sides in the Ukraine crisis to respect the international pact on passage through the Turkish straits to the Black Sea, Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said earlier in the day after Ankara closed access.

NATO ally Turkey borders Ukraine and Russia in the Black Sea and has good ties with both. Under the 1936 Montreux Convention, Ankara has the right to limit transit through its Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits during wartime. This allows it to curb Russian warships going to the Black Sea. The pact grants exemption to ships returning to their home bases.

Turkey had demanded all Black Sea and non-Black Sea states to halt passage through its straits.

“Eroding Montreux or disrupting the status quo in any way is to nobody’s benefit. We see a benefit in preserving Montreux. We tell all sides that it would be beneficial to abide by Montreux,” Akar told reporters, his ministry said.

In a call on Monday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken “expressed his appreciation” to Çavuşoğlu for Turkey’s implementation of the accord, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said.

While calling Russia’s invasion an unacceptable violation of international law, Turkey has carefully formulated its rhetoric not to offend Moscow, with which it has close energy, defense and tourism ties. It has called for dialogue and offered to host peace talks.

Also, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Monday said Turkey would use the authority given by the 1936 Montreux Convention pact on passage from its straits to prevent escalation of the Russia and Ukraine war.

Erdoğan added that Turkey could not abandon its ties with Ukraine and Russia but stressed he was “very saddened” by Moscow’s aggression on its southern neighbor.

“Turkey is determined to use the authority given by the Montreux Convention on Turkish Straits in a manner to prevent escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis,” Erdoğan said in a press conference after a Cabinet meeting in the capital Ankara.

Turkey on Sunday called Russia’s invasion a “war,” allowing it to invoke articles under the pact that could limit the passage of some Russian vessels from its straits.

At least 136 civilians, including 13 children, have been killed and 400 others, including 26 children, injured in Ukraine, according to United Nations figures. Around 660,000 people have fled Ukraine to neighboring countries, the international body said Tuesday.

Early in the morning of February 24, Russia launched a large-scale invasion in Ukraine, muddling the international order which had evolved since the end of the Cold War. In a new article, CivilNet analyst Tigran Grigoryan discusses the challenges this new geopolitical reality will pose for Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

Credits: Ruptly