Ukraine’s Dangerous Game
Yulia Tymoshenko talks with FP about engaging the West, placating
Russia, and trying to keep her country in one piece
Foreign Policy (Washington, DC)
Posted April 2009 / Web Exclusive
By Federico Fubini
As Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko rushes out of her Kiev
office to greet me, her tight handshake and tense smile make it clear
that she didn’t get to be the most powerful woman east of Berlin by
being a soft character.
This is a tough day for her and an important time for Ukraine. Later
she will speak before parliament to defend controversial new budget
measures demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in exchange
for unblocking a badly needed financial rescue package. The amount at
stake is relatively small, a $1.8 billion second installment of a
$16.4 billion loan. But without the IMF, there is little hope Ukraine
will regain enough market confidence to roll over the $40 billion in
bank loans and bonds coming due this year. By mid-April, Tymoshenko
needs to push pension reform and higher gas tariffs through the
legislature – hardly a comfortable position for a leading candidate in
the presidential elections expected on Oct. 25.
The 2005 Orange Revolution made Tymoshenko an international media
icon. With her fiery rhetoric and political savvy – not to mention her
stunning looks and famously distinctive braids – she seemed destined
to be the face of the post-Soviet world’s new wave of democratic
revolution.
Four years later, it’s not so easy to be Yulia Tymoshenko. The adoring
crowds in Independence Square are a distant memory. She feels under
fire from all corners, most of all from her former Orange Revolution
ally, President Viktor Yushchenko. She was late for our coffee
conversation because she first needed to focus on this morning’s
attacks from the president, who accused her in parliament of running
the economy into the ground. She is careful to avoid any explicit
reference to him, but notes "I am not here to please everybody." In
attempting to manage Ukraine out of a crisis while attending to both
her country’s desire to rejoin Europe and its fear of an increasingly
expansionist Russia, it’s becoming more and more difficult to please
anybody.
The global recession is turning conventional wisdom upside-down as
even the IMF now calls for large deficit-spending policies (for
advanced economies, at least). One might think the conditions imposed
on Ukraine, where unemployment is rising fast and salary delays are
now widespread, are too strict and socially painful. The hardship in
turn could encourage political radicals and the pro-Russia Party of
Regions of former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych.
But Tymoshenko isn’t complaining. "You are never popular when you ask
a sick person to undergo surgery," she says. "But what has to be done,
has to be done. Cooperating with the IMF requires a serious budget
policy for any country. It’s never easy. But it’s a guarantee of
stability."
The political challenges Tymoshenko faces as she struggles with
Ukraine’s financial crisis might be treacherous, but the subject
matter, at least, is familiar. She received a typical Soviet-era
education as an "economist-cyberneticist" — Soviet-speak for
management — in Dnepropetrovsk, the mostly Russian-speaking eastern
Ukrainian town where she was born in 1960. She started her career as
an "economy engineer" at a local machine-building plant during the
Gorbachev years. With the demise of the Soviet Union and national
independence, she was quick to seize the opportunities of the new
era. During the 1990s, she was a top manager at Ukrainian Petrol and
United Energy Systems of Ukraine and is understood to have made a
fortune at that time.
It was a tough, unsparing environment to prosper in, to say the
least. Tymoshenko has come a long way from then. It is especially
ironic that this businesswoman turned anti-Russian revolutionary is
now disparaged by Yushchenko as a thinly disguised Russian pawn.
Not that dealing with Russia has gotten any easier. Russian Prime
Minister Vladimir Putin did not like Tymoshenko’s recent deal with the
European Union on the modernization of Ukraine’s gas infrastructure,
and Moscow is holding up a $5 billion loan to Ukraine to mark its
dissatisfaction.
"All this crossfire shows what I really stand for is our own national
interest," she says. Then she is quick to add: "The Russians worry
that we are trying to privatize our pipelines by stealth, but that’s
not the case and would be illegal. We have to reassure them on that."
Tymoshenko returns frequently to the challenges presented by Ukraine’s
position between Russia and the European Union. "There is no doubt we
want to join the EU. At least 60 percent of our public opinion favors
this option, and we are now closer to this goal than, say, one year
ago. This policy must be the essence of all our actions," she
says. But, she warns, it cannot succeed by confronting Moscow or
ignoring its concerns.
This is balance-of-power politics of the post-Soviet, post-Georgia-war
variety. To her critics, it looks a bit like squaring the circle. To
her, it’s simply a matter of recognizing reality. "I try to defend our
interests so that we can find a balance in our relations both with the
EU and Russia," Tymoshenko explains, meaning she wants her country to
get into the EU without giving the impression of antagonizing Russia.
Could the same strategy apply to Ukraine’s relations with NATO? Here
the prime minister sighs for a split second: "There, it’s more
complex." It’s not so much that she is frightened by Georgia’s
experience, something she never mentions though it’s clearly on her
mind. While recognizing it would be "uncomfortable" for Ukraine to
remain "in a void, outside all existing security systems," she still
sees several "political barriers" between Kiev and NATO.
Although famous for her sharp tongue, Tymoshenko is treading carefully
these days. The first problem she sees is that barely 25 percent of
Ukrainians favor joining NATO. "Even the president accepts we need to
hold a referendum on this," she acknowledges.
The second "problem" is rather a carefully managed swipe at those
Europeans cozying up a bit too much to Russia — especially Germany
and Italy, one suspects. In Tymoshenko’s own words, "There is no
unanimity in the EU on Ukraine’s joining NATO as we have not yet
witnessed a favorable attitude in every country."
As Tymoshenko goes on, one cannot help but notice her trying to
contain her anger when she feels misunderstood in her actions and
purpose. She laughs softly at my attempts at humor, but when she finds
my questions misjudge her intentions, she bursts out: "It’s not fair
to say that!"
In the same spirit, she reserves her harshest criticism for the G-20’s
grandstanding on protectionism: "Everybody is pursuing some stronger
or weaker form of protectionism. Some people create hurdles for
foreign participation in tenders; others withdraw capital or create
tariff and nontariff obstacles to goods. All this proves damaging to
us all. But lofty declarations will not prevent it; we need effective
rules," she says.
At the moment, Tymoshenko narrowly trails Yanukovych in opinion polls
but remains far more popular than Yushchenko, whose support has fallen
to the single digits. Nonetheless, she remains a controversial
figure. In an identity-obsessed Ukraine that declared independence six
times over the last 90 years, even her family origins fuel much
debate. She grew up speaking Russian and perfected her Ukrainian only
after she moved to politics in her 30s. Through a spokeswoman, she
also "doesn’t comment" on rumors that part of her family comes from
Armenia. It’s hard to imagine her receiving the kind of voter
acceptance enjoyed by Barack Obama and Nicolas Sarkozy with their
foreign-born fathers.
Despite the sometimes harsh treatment from her constituents and the
media, Tymoshenko’s national pride and attention to the everyday lives
of Ukraine’s citizens remain intense. I experienced it myself when I
mentioned in a story that Kiev stores were having a serious shortage
of salt. Ukrainian TV had previously aired stories on locals hoarding
salt in anticipation of inflation and salary cuts. I was called soon
after by an angry Tymoshenko spokesperson: "It’s media speculation,
nothing true. Did you try to buy salt in Kiev? I did last night: I
found it. Immediately."
Why all this fuss over one anecdote in a foreign reporter’s story?
Tymoshenko has learned over the years that with countries — as with
their leaders — image is everything.
Federico Fubini is a journalist for Italy’s Corriere Della Sera
newspaper.
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