Author: Torgomian Varazdat

ON THE PROSPECTS OF THE RELATIONS BETWEEN THE US AND IRAN
Sargis Harutyunyan

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02 February 2009

Though the biggest expectations from the work of the new US
administration concern the financial and economical spheres, but
there are also many questions in the sphere of foreign policy which
require tough decisions from the 44th president of the United States.

The continuous escalation of the tension in the line of
Afghanistan-Iran and the developments expected in the line of
India-Central Asia, the latest war between Israel and Palestine
and general situation in the Middle East, Russian-Ukrainian gas
crisis with all its consequences on the post-Soviet territory and
Eastern Europe. This is the incomplete list of the issues that
Washington has to face and to which it has worked out fundamental
approaches. Moreover, after entering White house Obama will find out
that there are some issues where time is working against the US.

Therefore the point is at what extent the new US administration is
ready to bring in some correctives into the foreign policy strategy,
because one thing is clear: in this changed world the US can not
follow the strategy of the 1990th. Moreover, this was realized by
the Bush administration, because there are many examples when Obama
will simply implement the changes which were planed in the days of
Bush’s presidency.

The issue of20the prospects of the relations between the US and
Iran is one of the most important. This issue is essential for us on
two grounds:

It has never concerned mainly those two countries and it always has
a regional effect.

For the recent times American-Iranian relations has become almost
of the same importance for the national security of Armenia as the
relations between the US and Russia.

Situational survey Since the Islamic revolution in 1970, for the
first time in about 30 years, in November 2008 the president of
Iran decided to congratulate the person who was elected on the
post of the president of the United States. Of course this step by
Mahmud Ahmadinejad logically corresponded to the chain of events,
which in the end of 2007 witnessed to the thaw in American-Iranian
relations1. Nevertheless the fact that from the first days of the
new administration both parties decided to continue their relations
in new informational environment is equally important2.

>From this point of view the last Israeli-Palestinian war is worthy
of note.

In spite of the traditional rigorous statements by Iranian side,
the fact is that in those 20 days of war Tehran had not taken any
practical step against Israel.

It is known that in the period from January 8 to 14 from the territory
of Lebanon at least six missiles were launched in the direction of the
settlements in the North of Israel. This gave a reason to be lieve
that Iran by means of Lebanese "Hezbollah" organization intended to
force Israel two-front war. But the fact is that the war was over and
"Hezbollah" stood off military actions. All foregoing becomes more
obvious if we take into consideration the fact that during that war
on January 2-3 the secretary of the Supreme national security council
of Iran Said Djalali visited Damask and Beirut and met not only with
the leaders of those countries but also with the leaders of "Hamas",
"Hezbollah" and "Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine". It
is unlikely that organizations which receive financial, political
and military support from Iran would reject the decision of Iranian
political authorities to strike along the northern borders of Israel3.

There can be one conclusion. If the decision of Iran not to make
concessions to Israel is particularly assured then the foregoing
position of the Iranian party could interest only Washington. If in
2006, when "Hezbollah"4 was fighting against Israel, Tehran wanted to
show Washington its capabilities in the Middle East then now when the
agreements with the US are in process, Iranian party could not have
such a purpose. It is more probable that today restraining "Hezbollah"
Iran wants to show the US the benefits of the collaboration.

Conclusions The developments in at least two directions make the
US20reach an agreement with Iran. Firstly, it is the extension of
Russian influence on the post-Soviet territory and Eastern Europe and
secondly, the developments which are expected in the line of India –
Central Asia.

In the case with Russia Iran may facilitate the US in the following
three points:

The general stabilization of the situation in the Middle East, which
allows the US to concentrate more resources in the line of Moscow,
The chance to enter South Caucasus, the Caspian region and Central
Asian and this will be of more importance for the US especially after
Russian-Georgian war, And finally the supply of Iranian natural gas
to Europe, which will reduce the dependence of the European countries
and especially Germany from Russian energy carriers, i.e. it will
reduce the influence of Moscow in the European affairs.

As for the line of India – Central Asian then in this direction the
significance of Tehran role may occur only by now. It is already
known that in the initial period of the Obama administration the US
is going not only to stay in Afghanistan but also to enlarge their
military presence on 30 thousand soldiers. Taking into account the
growing instability in Pakistan and its strained relations with India,
it should not be excluded that in the near future the US will have
to get permission from Tehran to enter Afghanistan and Central Asia,
because other ways go through the territo ries of Russia and China.

It is not a secret that the following operation logic of Washington
in the line of Iran gathers headway: Tehran should be treated the way
Nixon did with China. May be the US will make concessions in the issue
of regional security and lift economic sanctions. Nevertheless the main
issue remains open: What will they do with Iranian nuclear weapons?

1Among such events the report of the National Intelligence Council
of the USA should be mentioned. It said that most likely Iran stopped
its nuclear program in the autumn of 2008. The other important feature
is that in August 2008 American-Iranian agreements were reached about
American military presence in Iraq, and this could not happen without
the consent of the Iranian party.

2E.g. Barak Obama in his interviews twice (on December 7, 2008 and on
January 11, 2009) stated that this issue should be tackled through
diplomatic channels and his administration intended to involve Iran
in settling regional issues.

3This particularly refers to "Hezbollah", which with the help of
Iranian military experts could make Israel retreat and from this point
of view may be it has unprecedented experience in the struggle with
Israeli military machine.

4The possibility that Djalali’s visits to Damask and Beirut pursued
that aim should not be excluded either.

POPE PRESENTED WITH ALTAR FOR JERUSALEM

Catholic News Agency
=14932
Jan 30 2009

Rome, Jan 29, 2009 / 11:19 pm (CNA).- At the conclusion of the
Wednesday General Audience this week, Pope Benedict XVI offered praise
for the plan by a Polish association to raise "an altar to pray for
peace in the Holy Land and in the whole world."

According to the L’Osservatore Romano, the altar was brought to the
Pope by the Polish association "Queen of Peace Community." During
his greetings in various languages at the conclusion of the audience,
the Pope thanked the Poles for the altar.

The altar, which was blessed by the Pope, features a monstrance
decorated with an image of Our Lady of Czestochowa with the Child
Jesus. After a pilgrimage to the Marian shrines of Poland and Germany,
the altar will be placed in the Armenian Chapel of the Fourth Station
of the Cross in Jerusalem.

ERDOGAN MAKES CLEAR DISTINCTION BETWEEN DIASPORA AND YEREVAN

Today’s Zaman
Jan 29 2009
Turkey

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan yesterday dismissed claims linking
a recent thaw in relations between estranged neighbors Turkey and
Armenia to the fact that April 24 — the day when Armenians commemorate
an alleged genocide perpetrated during World War I — is approaching,
with the Armenian-American diaspora more hopeful than ever about
official US recognition of the alleged genocide.

Erdogan was speaking at a press conference in Ankara ahead of his
departure for Davos for an annual meeting of the World Economic Forum
(WEF) when he was asked whether he planned to have talks with Armenian
President Serzh Sarksyan, who was also due to participate in the
WEF meeting.

"We may meet; there is no obstacle in front of this," Erdogan replied.

In a follow-up question, Erdogan was reminded that more than four
months had passed since President Abdullah Gul visited Yerevan and that
April 24 was approaching and was asked whether he believed that Turkey
and Armenia had in the meantime made progress toward the normalization
of ties. "At the moment, there is no obstacle in front of a meeting
between us. We may hold a meeting," Erdogan reiterated. "That’s another
issue. But April 24 is also another issue. April 24 is no doomsday."

Armenians claim that up to 1.5 million of their kin were slaughtered
in orchestrated killings during the last years of the Ottoman
Empire. Turkey categorically rejects the claims, saying that 300,000
Armenians along with at least as many Turks died in civil strife
that emerged when Armenians took up arms for the independence in
eastern Anatolia and sided with the Russian troops that were invading
Ottoman lands.

In 1993 Turkey shut its border with Armenia in a show of solidarity
with its close ally Azerbaijan, which was at war with Armenia over
the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Ankara wants Armenia to abandon its
campaign for the recognition of the killings as genocide and make
progress in its dispute with Baku before formal diplomatic relations
can be established.

But a visit by President Gul to Yerevan in early September to watch
a World Cup qualifying match between Turkey and Armenia’s national
soccer teams, upon an invitation by Sarksyan, broke the ice between
the two countries.

Every year, a few months before the US president delivers an
annual speech on April 24, the day on which Armenians commemorate
the alleged genocide, relations between Turkey and the US enter a
tense period. Recently, US-based Armenian diaspora organizations have
increased their pressure on US President Barack Obama for the official
recognition of Armenian claims of genocide. "We have displayed our
sincerity [for normalization of ties]. I’m always saying this;
as Turkey, we have opened our airspace to Armenia. Furthermore,
according to the information given to me, there are almost 40,000
undocumented Armenians in Turkey. These people came here because of
the poverty in their country. But we didn’t extradite them," Erdogan
said, referring to Armenians living in Turkey without work permits.

"We are a country that renovated and restored the Armenian Orthodox
church on the island of Akhtamar. We have always made gestures," he
said, referring to the fact that Turkey, in a symbolic move hoped at
the time to help ease longstanding animosity with Armenia, reopened
the ancient Akhtamar Church, located on an island in Lake Van in
eastern Anatolia, in March 2007 after three years of restoration.

"But of course, in addition to these efforts, the Armenian diaspora is
plotting. But we can see very clearly and sharply that their efforts
are aimed at utilizing [this issue]. This is obvious. But I also see
that the current administration in Armenia doesn’t take part in this,"
Erdogan stressed.

Foreign Minister Ali Babacan, who departed for the Davos meeting on
Tuesday, told reporters that he might have a bilateral meeting with
his Armenian counterpart, Edward Nalbandian, on the sidelines of the
WEF meeting.

During a special session on Gaza during his two-day stay in Davos,
Erdogan will have a chance to meet with Shimon Peres, the president of
Israel, which has been harshly criticized by Erdogan over its deadly
offensive in Gaza.

ESTONIA IN FAVOR OF CONTINUING KARABAKH CONFLICT SETTLEMENT PROCESS WITHIN FRAMEWORK OF OSCE MINSK GROUP

Noyan Tapan

Jan 26, 2009

YEREVAN, JANUARY 26, NOYAN TAPAN. Receiving the Estonian ambassador
to Armenia Toomas Lukk on January 26, the prime minister of Armenia
Tigran Sargsyan attached importance to active bilateral cooperation
with Estonia, as well as cooperation under the European Neighborhood
Policy of the European Union. He said that the Armenian government
displayes interest in Estonia’s advanced experience in the introduction
of an e lectronic government system and the formation of an electronic
society. Estonia has also introduced an interesting model in the
finacial sector: the market of securities, financial control,
the activities of the central depositary, etc, which T. Sargsyan
considered worth studying.

The interlocutors said that the current level of Armenian-Estonian
trade and economic links and the volumes of commodity turnover are
unsatisfactory, noting the existence of great potential in this
sector. The underlined the importance of holding business forums
with the aim of identifying the indicated potential, becoming
better acquainted with each other’s markets, goods and demand, and
strengthening business links.

According to the RA Government Press and PR Department, during
the meeting the sides also discussed the Nagorno Karabakh conflict
settlement process.

T. Lukk stated that his country is in favor of continuing the
negotiations with the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group and rapidly
finding a peaceful solution.

Interfax, Russia
Jan 23 2009

Russia studies Armenia loan request – Central Bank

YEREVAN Jan 23

An Armenian delegation is currently conducting negotiations in Moscow
on the provision of financial assistance to assist Armenia during
financial crisis, Armenian Central Bank Chairman Artur Dzhavadyan told
reporters on Friday.

"The Armenian delegation is in negotiations in Moscow on the provision
of financial assistance. Armenia’s request is currently being
considered," said Dzhavadyan.

Dzhavadyan would not specify what amount is being discussed.

"Information will be available after the meetings and negotiations are
over," he said.

The press service for the Armenian Finance told Interfax earlier that
Armenia had asked Russia, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank,
and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development on a
stabilization loan to deal with the consequences of the financial
crisis.

av nb

Without Turkey’s support Azerbaijan will never start war against
Nagorno-Karabakh

2009-01-24 14:17:00

ArmInfo. Without Turkey’s support Azerbaijan will never start war
against Nagorno-Karabakh, says Armenian independent analyst Igor
Muradyan.

All of the statements of the Azeri authorities that it is ready to
start a new war against Nagorno-Karabakh are meant for the Azeri
public. Still I doubt that war is what the Azeris dream of – like all
ordinary people they dream of peaceful comfortable life.

In 1998 Haydar Aliev and Suleyman Demirel agreed to implement joint
policy on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Particularly, they agreed that
they would cooperate in case of new war.

This position will not be changed even if the Azeri authorities are
changed. Even if the Aliev family is dethroned – which is hardly
possible – their successors will be even more dependant from Turkey.

But the point is that nobody wants a new war.

ARMENIA CONFIRMS COMMITMENT TO PEACEFUL SETTLEMENT OF N. KARABAKH CONFLICT – SPEAKER

Interfax
Jan 20 2009
Russia

Armenia confirms its commitment to a peaceful settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Armenian National Assembly Chairman Ovik
Abraamian said at a meeting with U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary
of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew Bryza, who is
a co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group for the settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

"Armenia reaffirms its position on a peaceful settlement of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. At the same time, Abraamian called on the
mediator to pay attention to Azerbaijan’s militant rhetoric, which
cannot facilitate the peaceful settlement process," the Armenian
parliament press service told Interfax on Tuesday.

Abraamian pointed to the importance of nations’ right to self-
determination, the presence of a land link between Armenia and Nagorno-
Karabakh, international guarantees of the Nagorno-Karabakh people’s
security, and participation of the Nagorno-Karabakh authorities in
the negotiating process.

Bryza shared the view that Nagorno-Karabakh should be involved in
the negotiations, the press service said.

The American diplomat also praised the Armenian and Azeri presidents’
constructive approach toward a peaceful settlement of the conflict,
it said.

DEMOCRACY WILL QUICKLY BE REINSTATED IN ARMENIA

A1+
[08:02 pm] 22 January, 2009

"The Armenian delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council
of Europe and the 47 PACE-member countries have never been in such a
difficult situation," told "A1+" head of the Armenian delegation to
PACE from 1999-2003, former head of the foreign relations committee and
current leader of the Armenian Liberal Party Hovhannes Hovhannisyan.

Only three countries have had their voting rights suspended in the
history of PACE. Turkey lost its voting rights when it annexed Northern
Cyprus, Greece lost its voting rights when the "black coronels" came
to power and in 2002 the Russian Federation had its voting rights
suspended when it was in a war with Chechnya.

Some government representatives tie the situation at PACE with the
flaws of the committee. As former head of the delegation, Hovhannes
Hovhannisyan notes that the committee can’t do any more.

"The committee is not to blame for the 10 murders on March 1,
the falsified elections, dozens of political prisoners, hundreds of
injured, dozens of cases with violations, lack of a legal system. What
could the committee do? As former head of the committee and former head
of the delegation, I understand the situation at hand. The government
is trying to do everything it can to throw the blame of the crimes
on four or five members of the committee. This is not right," said
Hovhannes Hovhannisyan.

As far as the letter sent by NA Chairman Hovik Abrahamyan to heads
of parliaments of the CE-member countries, according to Hovhannisyan,
that will have a negative impact.

"There is no such practice in the Council of Europe. When there are
issues concerning the country, the political elite of the country
gives an explanation to the member countries only if the president and
officials have the moral right and what they say is perceived. What
do they have to say? The content of the letter in which it is stated
that we have the Karabakh conflict to resolve just throws down the
reputation of our country," said Hovhannisyan.

If Armenia loses its voting rights, what effect will that have on
the country? Many say that nothing will change.

"It will be a serious blow to the country’s image. Armenia will find
itself in economic and political isolation. Armenia will be included
in the list of countries where human rights are not protected, where
there are political prisoners and Armenia will receive political and
economic sanctions. Armenia will not be able to get through."

Who will suffer the loss in the end?

"The government won’t suffer the loss; rather, the state, and the
state is the people. But that won’t take long because there will be
new elections, democracy will be reinstated and we will prove to the
world that they helped us reinstate democracy in Armenia. After all,
that is the issue of European organizations and Western values."

GEORGIANS PROHIBIT ARMENIAN PLAYER FROM PLAYING IN YEREVAN

A1+
[02:26 pm] 22 January, 2009

The Armenian football team may not have a chief goalkeeper during the
European championship selective round to be held in February. Chief
trainer of the team Ruben Nazaretyan told "A1+" that the Georgian
"Iberia" team doesn’t allow goalkeeper Ernest Akopov to arrive
in Yerevan.

Ernest Akopov is the goalkeeper for the Armenian national team and
the Georgian champion "Iberia" team. The Georgian team administration
has prohibited Ernest from playing for the Armenian team without any
serious reason. We found out from Georgian insiders that "Iberia"
hasn’t even let some of its players to play in the Georgian national
team.

In any case, the Armenian team has started getting ready for the
selective round to be held February in Bulgaria. The 16 members of
the team headed by Ruben Nazaretyan train once a day in the "Dinamo"
and "Kilikia" gyms of Yerevan. It was foreseen that Armenia would
play a test match in January, but the Armenian football players are
still training.

Ruben Nazaretyan informed that the team is currently training without
the legioners.

"Before leaving for Bulgaria, we will be joined by Armen Danielyan from
Cyprus, as well as Edgar Kirakosyan from Lebanon. Karo Hovhannisyan
from Russia will not be invited this time because he hasn’t been
trained enough yet," said Nazaretyan.

THE STATEMENT OF MITK ANALYTICAL CENTER

Lragir.am
08:12:08 – 22/01/2009

Since January 20 the Azerbaijani sites informed with pride
about over one hundred Armenian sites hacked by Azerbaijanis,
( 3.html), the statement of the Mitk
Analytical Center holds. Ali Abbasov, the minister of communication
and IT of Azerbaijan, hurried to deny the crime of his subjects and
stated that Azerbaijan has joined the international convention of
computer crime ().

In the meantime, Mitk announces that the hacker from Azerbaijan has
been hindering their activities for two days. Mitk has learned the name
of the hacker who hacked its website. It is Bahran Akhundov of Baku
(deutsche1988, tel. (050) 722 23 33, (012) 418 540, ICQ: 401147536).

Mitk is convinced that the Azerbaijani hackers are sponsored by the
government, who hack the undesirable mass media sites not only in
Azerbaijan but also in Armenia. Mitk calls upon the international
organizations and relevant agencies to help prevent attacks of
hackers on the Armenian websites and to hold accountable the
wrongdoers. Mitk also thanks the Armenian IT specialists for not
yielding to provocations of Azerbaijani hackers.