European Voice
Sept 21 2013
Soft power, of the bullying sort
By Edward Lucas – 12.09.2013 / 04:05 CET
You have a free choice between Russia and the EU, the Kremlin is
telling its neighbours, but only so long as you choose us
Russia is trying to win control of its neighbourhood. But just as in
the row over NATO expansion, its tactics may backfire. This time, the
argument is over whether six ex-Soviet countries – Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – have the right to
determine their own future. Will they join the Russian-led Eurasian
Customs Union, or choose the European Union, which offers free trade,
close political ties, and even, eventually (just possibly, perhaps,
sometime in the future) membership?
The details are tricky. For authoritarian-minded elites, the Russian
way of running things has its advantages: you control the media, lock
up the opposition, and manipulate the economy to please your
supporters. The EU’s demands for open political and economic
competition look threatening. Jam tomorrow in exchange for the promise
of painful changes is less attractive than caviar today with few
strings attached.
In Belarus, the EU option is not even on the table. For all their
mutual loathing, more unites than divides Vladimir Putin and Alexander
Lukashenko. Azerbaijan, awash with oil and gas money, cares little for
Western strictures, and deals with them through lavish hospitality and
occasional arm-twisting (brilliantly documented by my friend Gerald
Knaus of the European Stability Initiative, in his pamphlet `Caviar
diplomacy’, available at bit.ly/caviar-diplomacy).
That leaves three small countries and a big one. Russia has scored a
victory, seemingly, with Armenia, threatening to leave it at
Azerbaijan’s mercy in any conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Officials in
Yerevan are covered with bruises, but singing Russia’s song through
gritted teeth. Georgia has shown signs of wobbling, but the prime
minister, Bidzina Ivanishvili, says he is determined to go ahead with
the European choice.
Moldova, the keenest European, is facing a Russian onslaught. `I hope you
won’t freeze,’ said Russia’s deputy prime minister, Dmitry Ragozin,
pithily, raising the threat of a gas cut-off. The Kremlin has already
banned Moldovan wine exports. Ukraine, the biggest country and the
greatest prize, has also suffered a series of trade embargos and other
difficulties.
In the short term, these threats may have an effect. But they do
nothing for Russia’s image as a friendly, responsible regional power.
Even the most dim-witted post-Soviet leader (Ukraine’s Viktor
Yanukovych leaps to mind) can see the Kremlin’s line: you have a free
choice, but only so long as you choose us.
The EU, by contrast, may be annoying, bureaucratic, inefficient,
patronising, riddled with double standards and slow moving – but it
does not bully its neighbours. Countries that displease it get
showered with delegations and jargon. They do not face
Brussels-sponsored separatist movements, energy sanctions, or savage
attacks on `EU state television’.
The other big effect of Russia’s policy is in the EU itself. Many
peaceable folk in Europe hate the idea of being in a geopolitical
competition with the Kremlin. European neighbourhood policy should be
a win-win, they argue, with greater trade, better infrastructure and
closer integration benefiting everyone.
That is a touching notion. But the Kremlin’s snarling behaviour is
making even the blandest bureaucrats in Brussels change their
worldview. You may believe power politics is deplorably old-fashioned.
But when someone is practising it against your neighbours, you can no
longer believe that it is extinct or redundant.
Remember NATO expansion to the countries of the former Soviet empire?
This was a tentative and distant goal – until Russia started trying to
block it. That stoked the applicants’ feeling of urgency, and made it
morally impossible for existing members to block membership for
countries which so evidently needed it. Now Russia is making the same
mistake again. For a judo expert, Putin seems awfully clumsy.
Edward Lucas edits the international section of The Economist.
http://www.europeanvoice.com/article/imported/soft-power-of-the-bullying-sort/78156.aspx